Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend. Macroscopically, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased, and the country is taking measures to regulate price competition. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has decreased, the arrival volume has increased, and the port inventory has stopped falling and rebounded. The blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and molten iron output of steel mills have declined slightly. Technically, the iron ore I2601 contract has shifted upward, and the daily K - line is above multiple moving averages. Although the fundamentals of iron ore are generally in a state of loose supply, the macro - expectations are positive, and the spot price is firm [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary 1.1 Price - As of the close on November 28, the futures price of the iron ore main contract was 794 (+8.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden ore at Qingdao Port was 843 (-1) yuan/dry ton [5]. 1.2 Shipment - From November 17 to November 23, 2025, the total global iron ore shipment was 3278.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 238.0 million tons. The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2637.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 271.3 million tons [5]. 1.3 Arrival - From November 17 to November 23, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2939.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 569.6 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2817.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 548.2 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1438.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 397.0 million tons [5]. 1.4 Demand - The average daily molten iron output was 234.68 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.81 million tons [5]. 1.5 Inventory - As of November 28, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 15901.22 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 166.37 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 284.33 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 8942.48 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.75 million tons [5]. 1.6 Profit Rate - The profit rate of steel mills was 35.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.89 percentage points [5]. 1.7 Market Outlook - Macroscopically, overseas, the market's expectation of the December meeting fluctuates between "rate cut" and "maintaining the status quo", and the probability of a rate cut has risen to about 80%. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission is taking measures to regulate price competition. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has decreased, the arrival volume has increased, and the port inventory has stopped falling and rebounded; the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and molten iron output of steel mills have declined slightly. Technically, the iron ore I2601 contract has shifted upward, and the daily K - line is above multiple moving averages. The I2601 contract may maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price - This week, the I2601 contract fluctuated slightly upward. The price of the I2601 contract was weaker than that of the I2605 contract. On the 28th, the price difference was 26 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.5 yuan/ton [13]. 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Long Positions - On November 28, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1300, a week - on - week increase of 500. The net long position of the top 20 in the ore futures contract was 16881, an increase of 16354 compared with the previous week [19]. 2.3 Spot Price - On November 28, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden ore at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 28th, the basis was 49 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [25]. 3. Industry Situation 3.1 Arrival Volume - From November 17 to November 23, 2025, the total arrival volume at 45 ports in China increased. The total global iron ore shipment decreased, and the total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased [29]. 3.2 Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 15901.22 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 166.37 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 344.06 million tons, an increase of 0.67 million tons. The inventory of steel mills' imported iron ore was 8942.48 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.75 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 289.43 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.9 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 days [33]. 3.3 Inventory Availability Days - As of November 27, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore at large and medium - sized steel mills in China was 20 days, a week - on - week increase of 0 days. On November 27, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2480, a week - on - week increase of 205 [38]. 3.4 Import Volume and Mine Capacity Utilization - In October, China's iron ore imports were 11130.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 501.7 million tons and a month - on - month decline of 4.3%; from January to October, the cumulative imports were 102888.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%. As of November 28, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 63.51%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%; the average daily output of concentrate powder was 40.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18 million tons; the inventory was 40.52 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 million tons [41]. 3.5 Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Output - In October 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 8403.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%; from January to October, the cumulative output was 85173.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. In October, the output of iron concentrate powder from 433 domestic iron mines was 2294.0 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.5 million tons and an increase of 0.4%; from January to October, the cumulative output was 22966.0 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 882.4 million tons and a decline of 3.7% [45]. 4. Downstream Situation 4.1 Crude Steel Output - In October 2025, China's crude steel output was 7200 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, China's crude steel output was 81787 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [48]. 4.2 Steel Import and Export - In October 2025, China's steel exports were 978.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%; imports were 50.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 9773.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%; the cumulative imports were 504.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9% [48]. 4.3 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Molten Iron Output - On November 28, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.18 percentage points. The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.68 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.81 million tons [51]. 5. Option Market - The fundamentals of iron ore are generally in a state of loose supply, but the macro - expectations are positive, the spot price is firm, and the futures price fluctuates slightly upward. For far - month iron ore, consider buying out - of - the - money call options [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply and demand of rebar are weak, but the positive macro - expectations support steel prices. The RB2601 contract may fluctuate and strengthen, and it is advisable to consider buying call options [7][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of November 28, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3110 yuan/ton (+53 yuan/ton), and the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3290 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton) [5]. - Rebar production decreased to 206.08 million tons (-1.88 million tons), a year - on - year decrease of 21.8 million tons [5]. - Apparent demand declined to 227.94 million tons (-2.85 million tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.59 million tons [5]. - Factory and social inventories continued to decline. The total rebar inventory was 531.48 million tons (-21.86 million tons), a year - on - year increase of 83.84 million tons [5]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from the previous week and 16.89 percentage points from the same period last year [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the market's expectation for the December meeting fluctuates between "interest rate cut" and "maintaining the status quo", and the probability of an interest rate cut has risen to about 80%. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission will govern enterprises' disorderly price competition [7]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: Rebar weekly production decreased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 45.18% and an EAF steel开工率 of 69.13%. Downstream demand was average, with a decline in apparent demand but a continued decrease in inventory [7]. - **Cost aspect**: Although the fundamentals of iron ore are generally in a state of loose supply, the macro - expectations are positive, and the ore price remains strong. Coking coal and coke continue to weaken [7]. - **Technical aspect**: The RB2601 contract fluctuated and strengthened. The daily K - line broke through the MA60 moving average pressure upwards, and the lower moving averages were relatively dense with strong support [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the futures price fluctuated and strengthened. The RB2601 contract was stronger than the RB2605 contract. On the 28th, the price difference was - 7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 34 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On November 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's rebar warehouse receipts were 59519 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5301 tons. The net short position of the top 20 in the rebar futures contract was 54221 lots, a decrease of 28612 lots from the previous week [20]. 3.2.3 Spot Price and Basis - On November 28, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade rebar 20mmHRB400 was 3290 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3290 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of rebar was weaker than the futures price. On the 28th, the basis was 180 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Upstream Market 3.3.1 Furnace Charge Prices - On November 28, the spot price of 61% Australian Macfarlane ore at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1760 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [30]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore Arrivals and Inventories - From November 17 - 23, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2939.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 569.6 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 2817.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 548.2 million tons; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1438.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 397.0 million tons [35]. - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 15901.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 166.37 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 344.06 million tons, an increase of 0.67 million tons [35]. 3.3.3 Coking Plant Data - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased, and coke inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.02% (+0.92%), coke daily output was 50.40 (+0.65), coke inventory was 45.21 (+1.77), total coking coal inventory was 860.93 (-28.29), and the available days of coking coal were 12.8 days (-0.6 days) [39]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - **Crude Steel Production**: In October 2025, China's crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel production was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [43]. - **Rebar Production**: On November 27, the weekly rebar production of 139 building material production enterprises was 206.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.88 million tons from the previous week and 21.8 million tons from the same period last year [45]. - **EAF Steel**: The average starting rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 69.13%, unchanged from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 0.79 percentage points [48]. - **Rebar Inventory**: On November 27, the in - factory inventory of rebar in 137 building material production enterprises was 146.73 million tons, a decrease of 6.59 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.48 million tons from the same period last year. The social inventory of rebar in 35 major cities was 384.75 million tons, a decrease of 15.27 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 82.36 million tons from the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 531.48 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.86 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 83.84 million tons [51]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - **Real Estate**: From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment was 7356.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The housing construction area was 6529.39 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%; the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [54]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to October 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline transportation investment increased by 13.8%, water transportation investment increased by 9.4%, and railway transportation investment increased by 3.0% [54]. 3.5 Options Market - Considering the decline in rebar production, the decrease in downstream demand, and the positive macro - expectations supporting steel prices, it is advisable to consider buying call options [57].

(责任编辑：张紫祎) 会议指出，目前部分行业价格无序竞争问题仍然突出，一些企业对规范价格竞争行为的要求落实不到 位，甚至依然存在扰乱市场价格秩序的行为。国家发展改革委将会同有关部门持续推进相关工作，治理 企业价格无序竞争，维护良好市场价格秩序，助力高质量发展。 为贯彻中央财经委员会第六次会议精神，落实《关于治理价格无序竞争 维护良好市场价格秩序的公 告》(国家发展改革委 市场监管总局公告2025年第4号)有关要求，11月24日，国家发展改革委会同有关 部门及相关行业协会召开会议，研究制定价格无序竞争成本认定标准等相关工作。 ...