社融预测月报 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2026 年 2 月社融预测：23417 亿元 glmszqdatemark 从结构来看，信贷表现预计有所回暖，政府债券净融资较去年同期高基数略有回 落。信贷方面，大中城市新房成交量明显回落，新增居民中长贷预计增长有限；2 月 PMI 为 49.0%继续回落，但转贴现利率月末明显上升，新增企业信贷预计回 暖。债券融资方面，高频数据显示政府债券净融资较去年高基数回落。（目前预测 模型未考虑化债因素影响，2 月地方政府再融资债券净融资 5164 亿元，或导致 企业信贷净融资低于预期。） 风险提示： （1）量化结论基于历史统计，如若未来市场环境发生变化不排除失效可能。 （2）政策对于信贷的引导可能领先于实物工作量表现，高频数据反应不及时可能 导致预测出现误差。 2026 年 03 月 04 日 [Table_Author] | 分析师 叶尔乐 | | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110059 | | 邮箱： yeerle@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 祝子涵 | | 执业证书： S059052511 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a forecast for social financing (社融) in January 2026, estimating it at 74,432 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 390 billion yuan and a month-on-month increase of approximately 1.09% [7][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of a bottom-up approach in predicting social financing by analyzing economic logic, high-frequency data, and seasonal characteristics. This method has previously yielded accurate predictions regarding both the total amount and structure of social financing [7][11]. - The forecast for January 2026 includes an expected increase in new RMB loans of approximately 53,100 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 90 billion yuan. This includes 18 billion yuan in new long-term loans for residents and 56,600 billion yuan in corporate and short-term loans for residents [7][11]. - Government bond net financing is projected to be around 9,800 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,800 billion yuan, while corporate bond net financing is expected to reach 5,600 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1,100 billion yuan [7][11]. Summary by Sections Social Financing Forecast - The report predicts that the total new social financing for January 2026 will be 74,432 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 390 billion yuan and a year-on-year growth rate of 8.28% for the total stock of social financing [7][11][18]. - The structure of social financing shows a recovery in corporate loans and continued strength in government bonds. However, new long-term loans for residents are expected to grow only modestly due to a decline in new home transactions in major cities [13][18]. Quantitative Framework - The report outlines a detailed quantitative framework for predicting social financing, which includes various components such as RMB loans, corporate financing, and government bonds. Each component is analyzed based on its unique characteristics and predictive variables [12][18]. - The framework utilizes historical data and economic indicators such as PMI and housing sales to forecast the different components of social financing accurately [12][18].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of 2025, the total social financing scale reached 442.12 trillion yuan, marking an 8.3% year-on-year increase [1] - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 268.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 6.3% year-on-year growth, while foreign currency loans converted to RMB decreased by 18% [1] - The total increment of social financing for the year 2025 was 35.6 trillion yuan, which is 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year [3] Financing Structure - By the end of 2025, RMB loans to the real economy accounted for 60.7% of the total social financing scale, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The proportion of foreign currency loans to the real economy was 0.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - Government bonds saw a significant increase, with a balance of 94.92 trillion yuan, representing a 17.1% year-on-year growth, and accounting for 21.5% of the total financing structure, up 1.6 percentage points [2] Yearly Changes in Financing - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy for 2025 was 15.91 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 1.13 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [3] - Trust loans increased by 3.68 trillion yuan, although this was a decrease of 294 billion yuan year-on-year [3] - The net financing from government bonds reached 13.84 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 2.54 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [3]

Group 1 - The total social financing scale increment for the first eight months of 2025 reached 26.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.66 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 12.93 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 485.1 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - The net financing of corporate bonds was 1.56 trillion yuan, a decrease of 221.4 billion yuan year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The net financing of government bonds was 10.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.63 trillion yuan year-on-year [1] - The domestic stock financing for non-financial enterprises was 266.9 billion yuan, an increase of 109.3 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - The trust loans increased by 194.2 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 161.4 billion yuan year-on-year [1]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that the cumulative increase in social financing scale for the first eight months of 2025 reached 26.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.66 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] Summary by Category Loans to the Real Economy - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 12.93 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 4.851 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Foreign currency loans to the real economy decreased by 816 million yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 767 million yuan [1] Other Financing Methods - Entrusted loans decreased by 855 million yuan, which is a year-on-year increase in the reduction of 307 million yuan [1] - Trust loans increased by 1.942 trillion yuan, but this is a decrease of 1.614 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 223 million yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 2.566 billion yuan [1] Corporate Financing - Net financing through corporate bonds was 1.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.214 billion yuan [1] - Government bond net financing reached 10.27 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 4.63 trillion yuan year-on-year [1] - Non-financial corporate domestic stock financing amounted to 266.9 billion yuan, an increase of 109.3 billion yuan year-on-year [1]

Core Insights - The total social financing scale increment for the first seven months of 2025 reached 23.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.12 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] Summary by Category Loans to the Real Economy - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 12.31 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 694 billion yuan [1] - Foreign currency loans to the real economy, converted to RMB, decreased by 725 billion yuan, with a year-on-year reduction of 245 billion yuan [1] Other Financing Methods - Entrusted loans decreased by 689 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase in reduction of 116 billion yuan [1] - Trust loans increased by 1.592 trillion yuan, but this represents a year-on-year decrease of 1.48 trillion yuan [1] - The amount of undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 2.196 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year reduction of 1.243 trillion yuan [1] Corporate and Government Financing - Net financing through corporate bonds was 1.43 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 1.849 trillion yuan [1] - Net financing through government bonds reached 8.9 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.88 trillion yuan [1] - Domestic equity financing for non-financial enterprises amounted to 221.2 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 76.7 billion yuan [1]