1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic spot market for lead is weakening, putting pressure on prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,930 yuan/ton, up 0.09%, and the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,016 dollars/ton, up 0.93% [1]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 28,937 lots, a decrease of 1,049 lots, and the LME lead trading volume was 5,567 lots, an increase of 1,521 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 49,424 lots, a decrease of 1,799 lots, and the LME lead open interest was 153,848 lots, an increase of 1,928 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium/discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -38.73 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.23 dollars/ton [1]. - **Import and Export Profits and Losses**: The profit and loss of lead ingot spot imports was -668.04 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.37 yuan/ton; the profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous - three imports was -664.04 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.57 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventories**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 62,535 tons, an increase of 2,744 tons; the LME lead inventory was 262,225 tons, a decrease of 25 tons [1]. - **Recycled Lead**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 News - In July in China, the new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [1]. - Trump said he might appoint the next Fed chair a little earlier, and the candidates were narrowed down to three or four. Bessent believes that the US interest rate should be 150 - 175 basis points lower than the current level, and there is a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September [1]. 3.3 Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [1].

Loan and Financing Data - New social financing (社融) in July was 11,600 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3,893 billion CNY, but below the market expectation of 14,100 billion CNY[1] - New RMB loans turned negative at -500 billion CNY, a decline of 3,100 billion CNY year-on-year, marking the first negative value since July 2005[1] - The scale of new government bonds reached 12,440 billion CNY in July, an increase of 5,559 billion CNY year-on-year, contributing significantly to new social financing[2] Economic Demand and Loan Trends - New loans to the real economy fell sharply to -4,263 billion CNY, setting a historical low since data collection began[2] - New household loans were -4,893 billion CNY, a decrease of 2,793 billion CNY year-on-year, indicating weak consumer demand[3] - New corporate loans were 600 billion CNY, with short-term loans at -5,500 billion CNY and medium to long-term loans at -2,600 billion CNY, the latter marking the first negative value since August 2016[4] Financial Market Insights - M1 money supply grew by 5.6% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.3%, but this growth is attributed to a low base effect rather than active deposit mobilization[5] - Non-bank financial institutions saw an increase in deposits by 2,100 billion CNY, while household deposits decreased by 1,100 billion CNY, suggesting a shift of funds from banks to non-bank entities[6] - The overall financial data for July indicates a slow recovery in demand, necessitating potential monetary easing measures to stimulate economic activity[6]

Group 1 - The financial sector has maintained reasonable growth in 2023, supporting the real economy effectively [1] - Predictions for July's new RMB loans vary among experts, but an increase in social financing (社融) is expected compared to the previous year [1][2] - In July 2022, new RMB loans amounted to 260 billion and new social financing was 770.8 billion [1] Group 2 - Wang Qing from Dongfang Jincheng predicts that July will see new RMB loans of approximately 350 billion, influenced by supportive monetary policies and increased credit allocation by financial institutions [1] - The issuance of local government bonds for replacing hidden debts is expected to reduce disturbances to new RMB loans in the second half of the year [1] - Huayuan Securities and Industrial Research Company forecast July's new loan scale at 200 billion [2] Group 3 - Li Chao, chief economist at Zheshang Securities, estimates new social financing in July to be 1.46 trillion, primarily supported by government bond financing [2] - Government bond net financing is expected to be around 1.27 trillion, showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 576.9 billion [2] - Wang Qing anticipates new social financing of about 1.7 trillion in July, with significant contributions from government bond financing [2] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China (央行) emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to ensure sufficient liquidity and reasonable credit growth [3] - Future monetary policy is expected to focus on reducing financing costs for the real economy and increasing credit supply, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated by the end of Q3 [3] - The central bank plans to restore government bond trading and utilize various monetary policy tools to maintain market liquidity and stabilize expectations [3]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In June 2025, new social financing (社融) increased by 41,993 billion yuan, up 9,008 billion yuan year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 37,051 billion yuan[1] - New loans from financial institutions reached 22,400 billion yuan in June, an increase of 1,100 billion yuan year-on-year, also surpassing the market forecast of 18,447 billion yuan[2] - The net issuance of government bonds in June was 1.40 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the market consensus of approximately 1.07 trillion yuan[3] Group 2: Loan Demand Analysis - New short-term loans for enterprises hit a record high of 11,600 billion yuan in June, increasing by 4,900 billion yuan year-on-year, while medium and long-term loans were relatively modest at 10,100 billion yuan, up only 400 billion yuan[4] - The total corporate financing demand indicator for June was 18,800 billion yuan, which, despite a year-on-year increase of 1,588 billion yuan, remains below the 24,900 billion yuan level of the same period in 2022-2023[5] - For households, new short-term and medium-long-term loans were 2,621 billion yuan and 3,353 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of only 150 billion yuan and 151 billion yuan, indicating weak consumer demand[6] Group 3: Deposit and Liquidity Trends - New deposits in June 2025 rose to 32,100 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7,500 billion yuan, although still below levels seen in 2021-2023[7] - The proportion of demand deposits in new deposits reached 83% for households and 95% for enterprises, indicating a shift towards liquidity[8] - M1 growth rebounded to 4.6% in June, driven by increases in demand deposits from both enterprises and households, each contributing nearly 1 trillion yuan[9] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The internal demand logic remains unchanged, with government departments continuing to leverage, but the transmission of demand to enterprises and households is not smooth[10] - The strong performance of credit in June may lead to weaker data in July, as historically, July figures have been significantly below expectations[11] - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in domestic policies and liquidity conditions, which could impact market stability[12]

智通财经C50风向指数调查：6月新增社融或同比多增 M1、M2同比增速继续回升 智通财经7月7日电，新一期智通财经"C50风向指数"结果显示，市场预计6月信贷表现略低于去年同 期，政府债券继续支撑社融增长。其中，市场机构对6月新增人民币贷款的预测中值为2.03万亿元，或 同比少增1000亿元；另对6月新增社融的预测中值为3.9万亿元，或同比多增6000亿元。伴随市场流动性 改善结合低基数影响，以及财政资金的逐步拨付使用，市场预计6月M1及M2同比增速继续上行。物价 方面，市场预计6月CPI同比读数仍在零值附近徘徊，PPI同比降幅或与上月持平。具体来看，市场机构 对6月CPI同比增速预测中值为0%，对6月PPI同比增速预测中值为-3.3%。（智通财经记者 夏淑媛） ...

Loan Data Analysis - In May 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion[1] - The month saw a seasonal increase of 340 billion in loans compared to the previous month, but the year-on-year decline indicates a weakening in loan growth[3] - Corporate loans decreased by 210 billion year-on-year, with medium to long-term corporate loans down by 170 billion, primarily due to local government debt replacement[3][4] Social Financing Insights - New social financing in May reached 2.29 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth[2][6] - Government bond financing was a significant contributor, with a year-on-year increase of 236.7 billion in May, driven by higher net financing of treasury and special bonds[6] - Corporate bond financing also rose by 121.1 billion year-on-year, aided by lower bond issuance rates and the launch of technology innovation bonds[6] Monetary Supply Trends - As of the end of May, M2 growth was 7.9%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in deposit creation[7][8] - M1 growth accelerated to 2.3%, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, although it remains low, reflecting weak consumer spending and investment[8] - The increase in fiscal deposits due to large-scale government bond issuance has contributed to a temporary monetary contraction effect[7] Future Outlook - The financial support for the real economy is expected to strengthen further, with projections for continued year-on-year growth in social financing in June[2][9] - The central bank is anticipated to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year[9]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a forecast for various macroeconomic indicators in May, indicating a mixed outlook for industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales, trade, and monetary conditions, reflecting ongoing economic adjustments and external influences. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial added value is expected to grow by 6% year-on-year in May, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.5, indicating a recovery in production and demand [1] - Key indicators show a decline in the operating rates of automotive tires, while the chemical industry shows varied performance [1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment is projected to grow by 3.9% year-on-year in May, with manufacturing and real estate investments declining, while infrastructure investment remains stable [2] - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in steel prices and an increase in asphalt operating rates, supporting stable infrastructure investment [2] Group 3: Retail Sales - Social retail sales are expected to grow by 4.7% year-on-year in May, down from 5.1% in April, with service retail showing stronger growth [3] - The automotive market is experiencing cautious sentiment due to international uncertainties, impacting retail sales growth [3] Group 4: Trade - Exports are forecasted to grow by 5% year-on-year in May, while imports are expected to remain flat at 0% [4] - Factors such as increased port activity in Southeast Asia and tariff reductions are influencing export dynamics [4] Group 5: Monetary Conditions - New credit is expected to reach 800 billion yuan in May, with total social financing at 2 trillion yuan and M2 growth at 7.7% [5] - The article notes a shift in loan dynamics, with government bonds contributing significantly to social financing [5] Group 6: Inflation - CPI is projected to decline by 0.1% year-on-year in May, while PPI is expected to drop to -3% [5] - Price movements in fresh produce and energy are influencing inflation metrics [5] Group 7: Economic Forecasts - A summary table outlines various economic indicators for May 2025, including GDP growth, industrial added value, retail sales, fixed asset investment, exports, imports, trade surplus, CPI, PPI, and M2 growth [6]

报 告 正 文 预计4月工业增加值同比增长5.8% 。4月全国制造业PMI回落至49%，再度降至线下。主要分项指标中，产 需双双回落，原材料和出厂价格均有下行，原材料和产成品库存同步下降。从4月以来的中观高频数据来 看，汽车半钢胎和全钢胎开工率同比继续下降，化工行业开工率同比降幅均有走扩。六大发电集团耗煤同 比增速因去年同期基数走低而有所上升。整体来看，工业生产景气度保持平稳。我们预计，4月工业增加 值同比增速降至5.8%。 预计4月固定资产投资累计同比增长4.2%。 具体来看三大类投资，基建投资累计同比增速有所上升，制造 业投资累计同比增速有所下降，房地产投资累计同比增速略微下降。我们预计，4月投资累计增速或保持 稳定。 首先， 从基建相关的高频数据来看，水泥价格同比略有上升，螺纹钢累计产量同比降幅收窄，预 计基建投资累计增速有所上升； 其次， 42城地产销量累计同比降幅持续走扩，预计房地产投资额累计降 幅略微下降； 最后 ，乘联会乘用车批发和零售销量累计同比由升转降，预测制造业投资累计增速将有所 下降。我们预计，4月固定资产投资累计同比增速或保持稳定至4.2%。 预计4月社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4% ...