机构：华创证券 研究员：陈海椰/徐康 事项： 根据《关于保险合同准则转换有关企业所得税处理事项的公告》： 一、对于新保险合同准则执行年度为2025 年度及之前的企业，自2026 年起以新保险合同准则为基础， 作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 企业首次执行《保险合同准则》产生的留存收益累积影响数，按税前金额计入2026 年度应纳税所得 额，或自2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税所得额。两种方法可自主选择，一经选择不得 更改。 首次执行年度至2025 年度期间，企业执行《保险合同准则》为基础计算的应纳税所得额与已申报的应 纳税所得额的差额，计入2026 年度应纳税所得额，或自2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税 所得额。 根据公司初步估算，本集团2025 年度股东应占溢利预计同比增加215%至225%。 评论： 2025 年业绩预增两倍以上，25H2 预增七倍以上。根据公司公告，中国太平2025 年度股东应占溢利 （即"归母净利润"）预计同比增加215%至225%，对应全年业绩266 亿港元至274 亿港元。2025H1 公司 已实现归母净利润68 亿港元，同比增长12%；对应2025H2 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 评论： 一、对于新保险合同准则执行年度为 2025 年度及之前的企业，自 2026 年起以 新保险合同准则为基础，作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 企业首次执行《保险合同准则》产生的留存收益累积影响数，按税前金额计入 2026 年度应纳税所得额，或自 2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税 所得额。两种方法可自主选择，一经选择不得更改。 首次执行年度至 2025 年度期间，企业执行《保险合同准则》为基础计算的应 纳税所得额与已申报的应纳税所得额的差额，计入 2026 年度应纳税所得额， 或自 2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税所得额。 二、对于 2026 年度及以后年度为首次执行年度的企业，在计算缴纳企业所得 税时，自首次执行年度起以《保险合同准则》为基础，按照企业所得税现行规 定作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 中国太平（00966.HK）2025 年报预增点评 推荐（维持） 业绩增长两倍，主因投资与税收 目标价：29.6 港元 事项： ❖ 根据公司初步估算，本集团 2025 年度股东应占溢利预计同比增加 215%至 225%。 企业因执行《保险合同准则》产生的留 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for China Taiping (00966), raising profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to expected performance growth, with projected net profits of 270/200/222 billion HKD for those years, significantly up from previous estimates of 97/109/125 billion HKD [1] Group 1: Recent Events - On January 19, China Taiping announced an earnings forecast increase, expecting a year-on-year net profit growth of approximately 215%-225% for 2025, estimated at 266-274 billion HKD. The second half of 2025 is projected to yield a net profit of about 198-206 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.2-7.6 times. The first half of 2025 is expected to show a net profit of 67.6 billion HKD, up 12.2% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Performance Drivers - The significant increase in net profit is attributed to improved net investment performance compared to 2024 and a one-time impact from new corporate income tax policies introduced for the insurance industry. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and All A indices are expected to rise by 17.7% and 27.7% respectively in 2025, outperforming 2024's growth of 14.7% and 10%. The insurance sector's allocation to public market equity investments has increased, benefiting from the stock market rise [2] - In December 2025, the tax authority issued a notice allowing insurance companies to account for the cumulative impact of retained earnings from the switch to new standards and annual tax differences starting in 2026, either in one lump sum or spread over five years. It is anticipated that China Taiping has adequately provisioned for deferred tax liabilities, leading to a one-time profit impact from the reversal of over-provisioned liabilities under the new tax standards [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for China Taiping (00966) and has raised profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profit attributable to shareholders at 270/200/222 billion HKD, up from previous estimates of 97/109/125 billion HKD. The current market valuation corresponds to a 2026 EPB of 0.74x and PEV of 0.38x, indicating a low valuation level. The firm is optimistic about the company's transformation towards dividend-type life insurance and the continuous optimization of its property insurance business [1]. Recent Events - On January 19, China Taiping announced an earnings pre-increase, projecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 215%-225% in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, estimated at 266-274 billion HKD. The second half of 2025 is expected to yield a net profit of about 198-206 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.2-7.6 times. The first half of 2025 is projected to have a net profit of 67.6 billion HKD, up 12.2% year-on-year [1]. Performance Drivers - The significant increase in net profit is primarily attributed to improved net investment performance compared to 2024 and the one-time impact of new corporate income tax policies introduced by tax authorities for the insurance industry. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Wind All A indices are expected to rise by 17.7% and 27.7% in 2025, respectively, outperforming 2024's growth of 14.7% and 10%. Additionally, the scale of equity investments in the public market by insurance funds has significantly increased, allowing for greater benefits from the stock market rise. Furthermore, a new tax guideline allows insurance companies to account for the cumulative impact of retained earnings and annual tax differences from 2026 onwards, which is expected to positively affect current profits due to the reversal of previously accrued deferred tax liabilities [2].