2025-12-08 公司资质 苹果年报 产业服务总部 供减质劣，震荡走强 棉纺产业服务中心 ◆ 报告要点 2024-25 年度，苹果由于入库减少，叠加品质下滑，优果优价明显， 整体价格相比上一年度也有所抬升。2025-26 年度，苹果整体呈现个小、 品质继续下滑的情况，整体入库量进一步下滑，新年度苹果价格或分化 明显。 风险点：苹果市场消费情况；宏观消费政策变化；天气因素； 2024-25 年度，苹果由于入库减少，叠加品质下滑，优果优价明显，整体价格相比上一年度也有所 抬升。2025-26 年度，苹果整体呈现个小、品质继续下滑的情况，整体入库量进一步下滑，新年度苹果 价格或分化明显。 一、2025 年苹果市场行情回顾 2025 年苹果期货市场呈现阶段性上涨、高位震荡的核心特征，全年走势受供应端（产量、质量、库 存）与消费端（需求分化）的共同驱动，具体可分为以下关键阶段： 研究员 黄尚海 咨询电话：027- 65777089 从业编号：F0270997 投资咨询编号：Z0002826 棉纺中心|苹果年报 图 1：苹果年度走势 资料来源：IFIND、长江期货 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨 询 业务 资 格 ：鄂 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The proportion of high - quality new - season late - maturing Fuji apples has declined significantly. It is expected that the principle of better quality commanding higher prices will gradually emerge, which is beneficial to the apple market. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8,830 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 4,242 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 2,844 hands, with a decrease of 5,181 hands compared to the previous period [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period. The spot price of apples in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 5 yuan/jin. The spot price of apples in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commercial products) is 4 yuan/jin. The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade second - class fruit farmer's goods) is 3.2 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/jin compared to the previous period [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The annual apple production in the country is 5,128.51 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.52 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg compared to the previous period. The weekly average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.38 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg compared to the previous period [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 6.79 million tons, a decrease compared to the previous period. The weekly storage capacity ratio of apples in Shandong is 0.01, a decrease of 0.01 compared to the previous period. The weekly storage capacity ratio of apples in Shaanxi is 0. The monthly export volume of apples is 70,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons compared to the previous period. The monthly export value of apples is 6,973.9 million US dollars, an increase of 248,684.5 million US dollars compared to the previous period. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,837,980 million US dollars. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is - 0.3 yuan/jin [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 7.6 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.49 yuan/kg compared to the previous period. The weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.45 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg compared to the previous period. The weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 4.82 yuan/kg. The early - morning average daily arrival volume of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 15.6 vehicles, a decrease of 10.07 vehicles compared to the previous period. The early - morning average daily arrival volume of trucks at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 18.8 vehicles. The early - morning average daily arrival volume of trucks at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 24.8 vehicles, a decrease of 20.53 vehicles compared to the previous period [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 23.2%, a decrease of 1.14% compared to the previous period. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 23.15%, a decrease of 1.19% compared to the previous period [2] 3.7 Industry News - Affected by the news of fruit rot disease, the enthusiasm of merchants in Shaanxi for ordering apples has declined, with more waiting and seeing. The price of ordinary apple supplies is under pressure, and fruit farmers are starting to store apples. In Gansu, the price of high - quality apple supplies remains stable, and ordinary supplies are priced according to quality. In Shandong, the supply of late - maturing Fuji apples is slowly increasing, the enthusiasm of merchants for purchasing is average, and the price is basically stable. In Liaoning, the apple trading is still active, and some Shandong merchants continue to purchase. The supply of new - season late - maturing Fuji apples in the west has increased, and the price shows a significant polarization. Due to the high enthusiasm of merchants for purchasing high - quality apples and the average enthusiasm for ordinary supplies, the price of high - quality supplies in the origin is running strongly. Affected by the weather, Shandong is still in the coloring stage, and merchants have mostly transferred to the western region for purchasing. In the sales area market, the apple wholesale trading atmosphere is still average, the replenishment intensity of second - and third - level wholesalers is not strong, and the sales of high - quality supplies are slow. In addition, most producers in the origin generally report that the quality and commercial rate of new apples are lower than the same period last year, and it is expected that the proportion of high - quality apples will decrease [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract dropped from a high, with a weekly decline of 1.36%. The supply of new late - maturing Fuji apples in the western region has increased, and the price shows a significant polarization. High - quality apples are in strong demand, while the general ones are less sought after. In the Shandong region, affected by the weather, apples are still in the coloring stage, and merchants have mostly gone to the western region for procurement. In the sales market, the trading atmosphere is average, and the restocking efforts of second - and third - level wholesalers are weak. It is expected that the proportion of high - quality apples will decline, and the principle of "good quality, good price" will gradually emerge, which is beneficial to the apple market. It is recommended to buy long positions on dips in the short term for the Apple 2601 contract. Future trading should pay attention to the price of late - maturing Fuji and consumption [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract dropped from a high this week, with a weekly decline of 1.36% [4][8]. - **Market Outlook**: Western new - season late - maturing Fuji apples have increased in supply, with a significant price polarization. High - quality apples are in high demand, while general ones are less so. Shandong apples are still in the coloring stage due to weather, and merchants have shifted to the west. The sales market has an average trading atmosphere, and restocking by second - and third - level wholesalers is weak. The quality and commodity rate of new apples are expected to be lower than last year, and the proportion of high - quality apples is expected to decline. The principle of "good quality, good price" will gradually emerge, which is positive for the apple market [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to buy long positions on dips in the short term for the Apple 2601 contract [4]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to the price of late - maturing Fuji and consumption [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract dropped from a high this week, with a weekly decline of 1.36%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 1,483 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [8][15]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 17, 2025, the mainstream price of bagged Red Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmers' goods in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.7 yuan per catty; the price of bagged Fuji apples 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.3 yuan per catty [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side**: For the 2025/26 production season, new apples have not been put into storage, and data release has been suspended [26]. - **Demand Side**: - As of October 16, the average daily number of early - morning arrivals at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (represented by 0) pending the new apples' harvest [30]. - As of October 10, 2025, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.62 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.34 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 yuan per kilogram [35]. - As of October 10, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) was 7.06 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 yuan per kilogram [39]. - In August 2025, China's fresh apple exports totaled about 68,400 tons, with an export value of 69,739,352 US dollars and an average export price of 1,019 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 27.61% month - on - month compared with July and decreased by 17.61% year - on - year compared with August 2024. From January to August 2025, China's fresh apple exports totaled 530,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.60% [42]. - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money apple options this week is presented in the form of a chart, but specific data is not given [43]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - **Stock Market**: The chart shows the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [45].