证 券 研 究 报 告 生猪行业 5 月跟踪报告 价格小幅回落，体重延续上行 行业研究 农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 27 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：陈鹏 电话：021-20572579 邮箱：chenpeng1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521080002 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 101 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 13,111.51 | 1.27 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 9,904.42 | 1.22 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 2.2% | 7.1% | 9.8% | | 相对表现 | -0.0% | 8.2% | -3.6% | -16% -3% 10% 22% 24/06 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/04 25/06 2024-06-26~2025-06-26 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《华创农业 5 月白羽肉禽月报：毛鸡、鸡苗价格 保持平 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is experiencing rapid expansion, but the issue of unreasonable capacity structure is becoming increasingly prominent, necessitating a redefinition of automotive capacity to optimize resource allocation and improve utilization rates [2][3][4]. Group 1: Capacity Structure Issues - Many companies possess large production capacities, yet their products fail to meet market demands due to quality and technology issues, resulting in low or even ineffective capacity [3][5]. - The automotive supply chain also reflects similar capacity structure problems, with local governments eager to attract manufacturers to boost local GDP and employment, leading to redundant construction and underutilized facilities [3][4]. - Historical context shows that capacity issues in the automotive industry have been recognized since 2006, with various measures proposed to control new vehicle projects and improve investment conditions [3][4]. Group 2: Need for Redefinition - A clear distinction between quality capacity, effective capacity, low-efficiency capacity, and ineffective capacity is essential for formulating precise industrial policies and guiding resources towards high-efficiency capacities [4][10]. - The current definitions and management models for automotive capacity are outdated, given the rapid evolution of the industry, particularly with the rise of electric vehicles and new technologies [4][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite claims of overcapacity, the reality is that there is a significant gap in quality capacity, as evidenced by companies like BYD and new entrants like Li Auto and Xpeng, which are expanding production to meet demand [7][9]. - The automotive industry operates under a market economy where some degree of capacity redundancy is normal, influenced by uneven sales and the complexity of production processes [6][10]. Group 4: Policy and Government Role - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting actions to support quality management and optimize capacity layout, encouraging resource integration among leading companies while phasing out underperforming enterprises [13]. - Government intervention should focus on setting standards for energy efficiency and environmental impact rather than directly controlling capacity through administrative approvals [11][12]. Group 5: Strategic Opportunities - The current environment presents opportunities for leading companies to acquire and repurpose underutilized capacities, transforming perceived overcapacity into strategic advantages [14][15]. - Exploring overseas markets and establishing local assembly lines can help alleviate domestic overcapacity while facilitating equipment upgrades in China [19].