估值历史百分位水平
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“申”挖数据 | 估值水温表
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2026-01-20 02:49
Core Viewpoint - The current A-share Buffett indicator stands at 94.42%, which is above the safe zone, indicating potential caution for investors [6][22]. Valuation Historical Percentile Levels - The PE valuation (TTM) of major broad market indices is above the 20% percentile level of the CSI 500. The PE valuations for the Northbound 50, CSI 300, SSE 50, SZSE Component Index, SSE Composite Index, STAR 50, and CSI A100 are at 81.15%, 83.46%, 83.84%, 89.52%, 96.48%, 98.16%, and 99.66% respectively, suggesting relatively high valuations and associated risks [7]. - In terms of industry, the PE valuations (TTM) for the food and beverage, non-bank financials, and agriculture sectors are below the 20% historical percentile levels, at 6.17%, 10.76%, and 19.15% respectively, indicating potential investment opportunities. Conversely, sectors like steel, media, automotive, telecommunications, electronics, computing, real estate, and retail have PE valuations at 80.40% to 98.43% historical percentiles, warranting caution [7]. Key Index Valuation Performance - The PE valuation levels for key indices show significant increases, with the CSI 500 at 37.38 (up 10.50%), STAR 50 at 177.33 (up 10.33%), and the semiconductor index at 137.68 (up 14.92%) [11][14][26]. Overall Market Valuation Levels - The overall market PE valuation levels indicate that the SSE Composite Index is at 17.02 (up 2.91%), the SZSE Component Index at 32.94 (up 4.76%), and the ChiNext Index at 43.02 (up 4.24%) [26]. - The overall market PB valuation levels show the SSE Composite Index at 1.54 (up 2.99%), the SZSE Component Index at 2.90 (up 4.87%), and the ChiNext Index at 5.79 (up 4.28%) [28]. Industry Valuation Levels - The PE valuation levels across various industries reveal that agriculture is at 23.31 (down 3.24%), basic chemicals at 32.03 (up 5.78%), and steel at 32.36 (up 0.25%) [33]. - The PB valuation levels for industries show agriculture at 2.54 (down 2.31%), basic chemicals at 2.37 (up 5.80%), and steel at 1.19 (up 0.85%) [37]. - The PS valuation levels indicate agriculture at 1.07 (down 1.46%), basic chemicals at 2.03 (up 6.75%), and steel at 0.54 (down 0.04%) [41].
“申”挖数据 | 估值水温表
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-07-21 02:02
Group 1 - The current Buffett indicator for A-shares is 79.94%, indicating it is in a relatively high range and currently within a safe zone [2] - The PE valuation (TTM) for major broad market indices is above 20%, with the PE valuations for the Shanghai 50, Northern 50, Sci-Tech 50, and China A100 at 83.20%, 93.46%, 98.81%, and 99.71% percentile levels respectively, suggesting relatively high valuations and potential risks [3] Group 2 - In the current industry analysis, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector shows PE (TTM), PB, and PS valuations below the 20th percentile level over the past decade, with PE (TTM) at 6.63%, PB at 11.42%, and PS at 18.28%, indicating relatively low valuations and warranting attention [4] - The steel, retail, computer, and real estate sectors have PE valuations (TTM) at 82.21%, 83.86%, 96.50%, and 98.81% percentile levels respectively, suggesting high historical valuations and potential investment risks [4]
“申”挖数据 | 估值水温表
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-07-08 01:54
Group 1 - The current Buffett indicator for A-shares is 77.98%, indicating it is in a relatively high range and currently within a safe zone [2] - The PE valuation (TTM) of major broad market indices is above 20%, with the North China 50, Sci-Tech 50, and China A100 PE valuations at 93.90%, 97.37%, and 99.38% percentile levels respectively, suggesting relatively high valuations and potential risks [3] Group 2 - In the current industry analysis, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector has PE (TTM), PB, and PS valuations below the 20th percentile of the past decade, with PE (TTM) at 6.77%, PB at 9.32%, and PS at 17.13%, indicating relatively low valuations and warranting attention [4] - The PE valuations (TTM) for the retail trade, steel, banking, computer, and real estate sectors are at 80.82%, 81.76%, 83.57%, 93.87%, and 97.82% percentile levels respectively, suggesting caution regarding investment risks in these industries [4]
“申”挖数据 | 估值水温表
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-06-24 01:44
Group 1 - The current Buffett indicator for A-shares is 75.04%, indicating it is in a relatively high range and currently within a safe zone [2] - Among major broad-based indices, only the ChiNext Index has a TTM PE valuation below 20%, at 14.95%. The PE valuations for the North China 50, China A100, and Sci-Tech 50 are at the 92.50%, 96.83%, and 97.51% historical percentiles respectively, suggesting relatively high valuations and potential risks [3] - In the current industry analysis, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector has TTM PE, PB, and PS valuations all below the 20th percentile of the past decade. The TTM PE valuation is at the 4.41% percentile, PB at 3.97%, and PS at 12.11%, indicating a relatively low valuation and warranting attention [4] Group 2 - The computer and real estate sectors have TTM PE valuations at the 88.41% and 96.87% historical percentiles respectively, indicating high valuations and potential investment risks [4]
“申”挖数据 | 估值水温表
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-05-27 01:50
Group 1 - The current Buffett indicator for A-shares is 73.92%, indicating it is in a relatively high range and currently within a safe zone [2] - Among major broad market indices, only the ChiNext Index has a TTM PE valuation below 20%, at 15.23%. The TTM PE valuations for the CSI A100, Northbound 50, and Sci-Tech 50 are at the 95.59%, 98.65%, and 98.93% historical percentiles respectively, suggesting relatively high valuations and potential risks [3] - In terms of industry analysis, only the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector has TTM PE, PB, and PS valuations below the 20% historical percentile over the past decade, with TTM PE at the 3.36% percentile, PB at 3.13%, and PS at 11.77%, indicating these valuations are at relatively low levels and warrant attention [4] Group 2 - The computer and real estate sectors have TTM PE valuations at the 88.27% and 97.86% historical percentiles respectively, indicating significant investment risks [4]
“申”挖数据 | 估值水温表
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-05-13 02:06
Group 1 - The current Buffett indicator for A-shares is 73.71%, indicating it is in a relatively high range and currently within a safe zone [2] - Among major broad market indices, only the ChiNext Index has a TTM PE valuation below 20%, specifically at 14.70%. The TTM PE valuations for the CSI A100, STAR 50, and Northern Exchange 50 are at the 94.44%, 99.69%, and 100.00% historical percentile levels, respectively, suggesting relatively high valuations and potential risks [3] - In terms of industry analysis, only the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector has TTM PE, PB, and PS valuations below the 20th percentile of the past decade. The TTM PE valuation is at the 3.46th percentile, PB at the 3.27th percentile, and PS at the 11.40th percentile, indicating a relatively low level and warranting attention [4] Group 2 - The computer and real estate sectors have TTM PE valuations at the 91.23% and 98.35% historical percentile levels, respectively, indicating significant investment risks [4]