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在牛市中被毒打,银行走出了“股灾”行情...
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 12:06
Group 1 - The banking sector is experiencing a significant downturn, with the China Securities Banking Index dropping 15% from its peak, leading to a sense of despair among banking professionals [2][4] - The banking industry has shown minimal growth in recent years, with expectations for continued stagnation in the near future, primarily generating returns through dividends of around 5% [10][11] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the banking sector is approximately 6.2, which is close to historical lows, indicating that valuations may have adjusted adequately, although further declines cannot be ruled out [8][12] Group 2 - The projected operating income for the banking sector shows a slight decline from 2022 to 2023, with a forecasted revenue of 56,467.22 billion yuan in 2023, down from 58,529.45 billion yuan in 2022 [11] - The net profit for the banking sector is expected to grow modestly, with a forecasted increase from 20,645.36 billion yuan in 2022 to 20,948.67 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 1.44% [11] - The maximum historical drawdown for the banking index is noted to be around 20%, with the current maximum drawdown at 12.48%, suggesting that the index may have completed about 60% of its potential drawdown [12][14] Group 3 - The banking index is anticipated to reach a valuation bottom if it declines by approximately 5%, while a further drop of around 9% would indicate a complete bear market adjustment [15] - Historical comparisons suggest that the current market behavior resembles that of early 2015, where significant fluctuations occurred before a new upward trend began [21][24] - The overall sentiment in the banking sector remains cautious, with no clear signs of a bottoming out, despite potential attractiveness of dividends for long-term investors [17][30]
周报(第9期):养殖产能去化,估值底部,长期投资机会显现
Tai Ping Yang· 2025-03-03 08:10
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" with a recommendation to maintain the outlook for long-term investment opportunities in the agriculture sector [1][6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the livestock production capacity is decreasing, and the valuation of the sector is at a bottom level, indicating long-term investment opportunities [6][22]. - The agricultural sector has shown better performance compared to the broader market, with the feed sub-industry leading in growth [5][27]. Summary by Relevant Sections Livestock Industry - **Pork**: Production capacity is starting to decline, with the national average price for live pigs at 14.5 CNY/kg, down 0.05 CNY from the previous week. The average weight of pigs after slaughter is stable at 89.81 kg. The processing rate for pork is at 26.25%, up 1.45 percentage points from last week. Demand is expected to rise due to school openings, but supply is also increasing, leading to potential price fluctuations [6][22][23]. - **White Chicken**: The average price for chicken seedlings is 2.43 CNY/bird, up 0.18 CNY, while the average price for white feathered meat chickens is 2.97 CNY/kg, up 0.15 CNY. The industry is experiencing a high level of production capacity that needs to be reduced [10][24]. - **Yellow Chicken**: The price for yellow chickens is showing signs of potential increase due to tight supply, with the average price at 11.78 CNY/kg, up 0.37 CNY. The industry is at a historical low in production capacity, suggesting upward price potential [11][25]. - **Animal Health**: The animal health industry is at a recovery point, with increasing sales of domestic vaccines and ongoing research into new vaccines, indicating future growth potential [12][26]. Planting Industry - **Seed Industry**: The environment for the seed industry is improving, with the ongoing industrialization of genetically modified corn and soybeans supporting performance growth for leading companies [13][26]. - **Planting**: Recent grain prices have stabilized, with corn at 2223 CNY/ton (up 29 CNY) and wheat at 2429 CNY/ton (up 26 CNY). Expectations of a rebound in grain prices present investment opportunities in leading companies [14][26]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends buying shares in the following companies: - Denghai Seeds [4] - Muyuan Foods [4] - Suqian Agricultural Development [4]
农林牧渔行业周报(第9期):养殖产能去化,估值底部,长期投资机会显现
Tai Ping Yang· 2025-03-03 07:32
2025 年 02 月 28 日 行业周报 看好/维持 农林牧渔 ◼ 走势比较 (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 24/2/28 24/5/11 24/7/23 24/10/4 24/12/16 25/2/27 ◼ 子行业评级 | 种植业 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 畜牧业 | 无评级 | | 林业 | 无评级 | | 渔业 | 无评级 | | 农 产 品 加 工 | 无评级 | | Ⅱ | | ◼ 推荐公司及评级 | 登海种业 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 买入 | | 苏垦农发 | 买入 | 农林牧渔 相关研究报告 周报(第 9 期):养殖产能去化,估值底部,长期投资机会显现 <<美国奶牛感染禽流感事件梳理及 对食品安全的影响>>--2025-02-17 <<公司点评:成本持续领先,业绩高 速增长>>--2025-01-17 <<公司点评:生猪出栏快速增长,成 本持续下降>>--2025-01-14 证券分析师:程晓东 电话:010-88321761 E-MAIL:chengxd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号:S119051105 ...