估值泡沫保护

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 中银量化多策略行业轮动周报-20250829
 Bank of China Securities· 2025-08-29 07:15
 Group 1: Core Insights - The current industry allocation of the Bank of China multi-strategy system includes Electronics (11.6%), Comprehensive (11.6%), Non-Bank Financials (9.4%), and others, indicating a diversified investment approach [1] - The average weekly return for the CITIC primary industries is 1.8%, with the best-performing sectors being Communication (17.3%), Electronics (12.2%), and Computer (7.0%) [3][10] - The cumulative return of the industry rotation composite strategy this year is 25.5%, outperforming the CITIC primary industry equal-weight benchmark return of 21.6% by 3.9% [3]   Group 2: Industry Performance Review - The worst-performing sectors this week include Coal (-2.7%), Textile and Apparel (-2.4%), and Banking (-1.7%) [3][10] - The current PB valuation for the Retail Trade, Defense Industry, Media, and Computer sectors exceeds the 95% percentile of the past six years, triggering a high valuation warning [12][13]   Group 3: Strategy Performance - The highest excess return strategy this year is the S2 "Unfalsified Sentiment Tracking Strategy," with an excess return of 14.7% [3] - The top three industries based on the S1 "High Prosperity Industry Rotation Strategy" are Non-Bank Financials, Agriculture, and Non-Ferrous Metals [15][16] - The current macro indicators favor the following six industries: Comprehensive Finance, Computer, Media, Defense Industry, Comprehensive, and Non-Bank Financials [24]
