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若不出意外,2026年,国内或将爆发这5大变化,提前了解不吃亏
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-08 19:29
Group 1: Population Trends - The birth rate in China is projected to decline significantly, with an expected 8.25 million births in 2024, down by 430,000 from 2023, and potentially dropping to around 7.5 million by 2026, indicating a long-term low fertility rate trend [2][5] - Factors contributing to this trend include rising costs of housing, education, and healthcare, changing values among young people prioritizing personal development, and increased educational and career aspirations among women [2][3] Group 2: Economic Environment - Deposit interest rates have been on a downward trend, with the one-year fixed deposit rate falling to 1.5% in June 2025, down from 2.5% in 2015, leading to a near-zero or negative real interest rate when adjusted for inflation [4] - The proportion of bank deposits in urban households fell below 45% for the first time in early 2025, while investment products rose to 32%, indicating a shift in asset allocation strategies among residents [4] Group 3: Entrepreneurship and Rural Development - The number of returnees starting businesses in rural areas reached 8.76 million in 2024, a 17.3% increase year-on-year, with growth accelerating to 22.1% in the first half of 2025 [8][9] - Improved rural infrastructure, increased internet coverage, and the rise of digital economy models like e-commerce are facilitating this trend, making rural entrepreneurship more viable [8][9] Group 4: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing a rational adjustment, with national sales area down by 6.3% and sales value down by 8.2% in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift away from the expectation of continuously rising prices [14] - The market is expected to continue this rational trend into 2026, with significant differentiation between first-tier cities and those experiencing population outflows [14][15] Group 5: Employment Landscape - The job market is becoming increasingly competitive, particularly for individuals over 35, with the preference for candidates under 35 rising from 37% in 2020 to 52% in 2025 [19] - The average interview success rate for job seekers over 35 is 23.7% lower than for younger candidates, highlighting the challenges faced by older workers in the current job market [19][20]
韩国国防部:兵力6年减11万,17个师级以上部队消失
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-08-10 14:13
Group 1 - The South Korean military has reduced its size by 20% over the past six years, from 690,000 to 450,000 personnel, primarily due to a sharp decline in the male population eligible for conscription [1][3] - The number of active-duty soldiers and officers was approximately 563,000 in 2019 and is projected to decrease to 450,000 by July 2025, indicating a shortfall of 50,000 personnel needed to maintain a ceasefire status [1][3] - The number of divisions has decreased from 59 in 2006 to 42 currently, with 17 divisions being disbanded or merged, mainly affecting combat units in the Gangwon and northern Gyeonggi provinces [1][3] Group 2 - The South Korean government is attempting to attract military personnel by reducing alternative service and reserve forces, increasing the proportion of female soldiers, and enhancing short-term service incentives [3] - The defense budget for 2025 is projected to exceed 61 trillion won (approximately 315.3 billion RMB), surpassing the estimated total economic output of North Korea [3][4] - The decline in military personnel is attributed to low birth rates and decreased attractiveness of officer positions due to improved soldier treatment [3][4] Group 3 - South Korea has the lowest birth rate globally, with a fertility rate of 0.75 in 2024, and the population is expected to decrease from a peak of 51.8 million in 2020 to 36.2 million by 2072 [4][6] - A significant portion of unmarried individuals in South Korea express reluctance to marry or have children, citing economic burdens and lack of ideal partners as primary reasons [6][7] - The proportion of working wives in childless couples has increased from 53.2% in 2013 to 71% in 2022, indicating challenges in balancing career and family life [7]