Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: With the S232 investigation pending, the US copper market may continue to attract copper from other regions, leading to a tight - balance situation with low inventories and potential squeezes for both SHFE and LME copper. After the investigation results are out, the market narrative may reverse [1] - Aluminum: Supply has a slight increase, and in July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The market is expected to be balanced in terms of supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1] - Zinc: Zinc prices fluctuated upwards this week, mainly due to high macro - sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is weakening seasonally. The short - term strategy is to short zinc on rebounds and hold long - short spreads between domestic and overseas markets [2] - Nickel: The supply of pure nickel remains high, and demand is weak. The short - term fundamentals are average, and opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6] - Stainless Steel: Supply has been reduced since late May, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the overall fundamentals are weak, with prices expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7] - Lead: Lead prices rebounded from a low level this week, which was due to speculation. The supply in July is expected to slightly decrease, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,300 [8] - Tin: Tin prices fluctuated upwards this week, driven by commodity sentiment. The supply is disturbed, and demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term, and long - positions can be cautiously held [11] - Industrial Silicon: With significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and in the long - term, it will be mainly based on the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises [14] - Lithium Carbonate: Prices increased due to sentiment speculation this week. The supply is expected to be in surplus next week, putting pressure on prices. However, "anti - involution" policies may drive up sentiment [16] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market Concerns: There are concerns about the S232 investigation results, and the NYMEX - LME price spread has widened again [1] - Inventory Situation: By May, over 450,000 tons of electrolytic copper were attracted to the US, causing significant drops in LME and domestic inventories [1] - Price Movement: As LME inventory dropped below 100,000 tons and cancelled warrants soared, copper price volatility rebounded, and the LME cash - 3M spread widened [1] Aluminum - Supply and Demand: Supply increased slightly from January to May, and in July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The market is expected to be balanced [1] - Inventory Outlook: In July, supply and demand are expected to be balanced, and attention should be paid to long - term spreads and domestic - overseas reverse arbitrage opportunities in a low - inventory situation [1] Zinc - Price Trend: Zinc prices oscillated upwards this week due to high macro - sentiment [2] - Supply Side: Domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton, and imported TC rose by 10 dollars/dry ton. In July, some smelters will undergo maintenance, but new capacities in the southwest and central regions will be put into production, with an expected increase of over 5,000 tons of zinc ingots [2] - Demand Side: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is also weak. Some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees [2] - Strategy: The strategy is to short zinc on rebounds and hold long - short spreads between domestic and overseas markets [2] Nickel - Supply: Pure nickel production remains at a high level, and nickel bean imports increased in May [6] - Demand: Overall demand is weak, and the LME premium has slightly strengthened [6] - Inventory: Overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, and domestic inventory has slightly decreased [6] - Opportunity: Attention can be paid to opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] Stainless Steel - Supply: Some steel mills have reduced production passively since late May [7] - Demand: Demand is mainly for rigid needs [7] - Cost: The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable [7] - Inventory: Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have slightly increased, and some exchange warrants have expired and been liquidated [7] - Price Outlook: The overall fundamentals are weak, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7] Lead - Price Movement: Lead prices rebounded from a low level this week [8] - Supply Side: Scrap battery recycling volume is weak year - on - year, and the supply of concentrates has tightened. TC is in a chaotic state [8] - Demand Side: Battery inventory is high, and the operating rate has declined this week. Consumption is weak in the off - season from April to July [8] - Price Forecast: The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, and if the price remains above 17,200 due to macro factors, there may be a risk of price - support cycles [8] Tin - Price Trend: Tin prices oscillated upwards this week, driven by commodity sentiment [11] - Supply Side: Myanmar's Wa State needs to negotiate for short - term复产, and domestic smelting profits are inverted, with some production cuts in Jiangxi and difficult operations in Yunnan. Overseas supply disturbances have basically subsided [11] - Demand Side: Solder demand has limited elasticity, and the growth rates of terminal electronics and photovoltaics are expected to decline. Domestic inventory oscillates, and overseas consumption continues to drive down LME inventory [11] - Strategy: Long - positions can be cautiously held in the short term, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the long - term [11] Industrial Silicon - Production Changes: Hoshine Silicon Industry in Xinjiang significantly reduced production, while production in Yunnan slightly increased, and Sichuan's production remained stable [14] - Supply - Demand Balance: Due to significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [14] - Long - Term Outlook: In the long - term, prices will be mainly based on the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises, and attention should be paid to cost reduction due to green - electricity subsidies and falling thermal - power prices [14] Lithium Carbonate - Price Movement: Prices increased due to sentiment speculation this week [16] - Supply and Demand: Supply is expected to be in surplus next week, with downstream demand remaining weak. Some smelters have cut production, and high - cost capacities are being cleared [16] - Price Outlook: The supply surplus will lead to inventory accumulation, putting pressure on prices, but "anti - involution" policies may drive up sentiment [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the copper market, due to the uncertain S232 investigation on copper and the anticipation of US copper tariffs, a large amount of electrolytic copper has flowed to the US, leading to low inventory levels in the LME and domestic markets. The copper market is in a tight - balance situation prone to short - squeezes. After the S232 investigation results are released, the market logic may reverse [1]. - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July. The supply - demand balance is expected to be flat, with a short - term stable fundamental situation. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. - Zinc prices have fluctuated upwards this week, mainly due to high macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to increase in July, while demand is seasonally weak. The strategy is to maintain a short - allocation mindset for zinc and hold long - short positions between domestic and foreign markets [2]. - In the nickel market, supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory shows different trends overseas and domestically. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5]. - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, with supply cuts by some steel mills, mainly driven by rigid demand. Inventory has slightly increased, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. - Lead prices rebounded from a low level this week, mainly due to speculation on battery stocking demand and overseas cancelled warrants. However, actual downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. It is expected that lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,800 - 17,300 next week, with a slight decrease in primary supply and weak demand in July [7]. - Tin prices have fluctuated upwards, mainly affected by commodity sentiment. Supply is affected by mining issues, and demand is expected to decline. In the short term, long - positions can be cautiously held, and high - short opportunities after the maintenance period can be considered in the medium - to - long term [10]. - For industrial silicon, due to significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. In the long term, prices are expected to be anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises [13]. - Carbonate lithium prices have risen due to sentiment speculation. Supply is expected to be excessive in the short term, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices. However, "anti - involution" competition policies may drive sentiment up [15]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the spot price of Shanghai copper increased by 25, the premium changed by - 13, and the LME inventory decreased by 650 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: The market is worried about the S232 investigation. The anticipation of US copper tariffs has led to a large amount of copper flowing to the US, resulting in low inventory levels and increased price volatility [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 110, and the LME inventory increased by 550 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply has increased slightly, demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July, and the supply - demand balance is expected to be flat [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 80, and the LME inventory decreased by 1750 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices have fluctuated upwards due to high macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to increase in July, while demand is seasonally weak [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 288 tons [5]. - **Market Situation**: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory shows different trends overseas and domestically [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the price of 304 cold - rolled coils remained unchanged, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan slightly increased [6]. - **Market Situation**: The fundamental situation is weak, with supply cuts by some steel mills and mainly rigid demand [6]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the spot premium decreased by 5, and the LME inventory decreased by 1500 tons [7]. - **Market Situation**: Lead prices rebounded from a low level due to speculation, but actual downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. It is expected to fluctuate in a certain range next week [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the spot import profit decreased by 1572.76, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [10]. - **Market Situation**: Tin prices have fluctuated upwards due to commodity sentiment. Supply is affected by mining issues, and demand is expected to decline [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 30, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 271 [13]. - **Market Situation**: Due to significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the SMM electric - carbon price increased by 150, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased by 630 [15]. - **Market Situation**: Prices have risen due to sentiment speculation. Supply is expected to be excessive in the short term, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [15].