中金发布研报称，全球商业航天蓬勃发展牵引火箭发射需求，国内复用火箭有望逐步成熟。该行指规模 化、可回收的商业火箭有望为空间基础设施建设提供充沛的低成本运力支持，从而进一步夯实商业航天 产业发展基础。箭体和推进系统约占火箭成本的60%~80%，关键结构复用能够有效降低发射成本;同时 新技术应用进一步降低火箭制造成本。 1)箭体和推进系统约占火箭成本的60%~80%，关键结构复用能够有效降低发射成本，该行测算十次复 用情况下Falcon-9发射成本可降至1270美元/千克。2)新技术应用进一步降低火箭制造成本，大推力商业 火箭多数采用可变推力液体发动机，液氧甲烷凭借低成本、少积碳优势有望成为主流燃料;箭体结构采 用不锈钢替换铝合金，复杂结构通过3D打印工艺实现减重、降本。 风险 可复用火箭进展不及预期;卫星互联网发射需求不及预期。 1)商业遥感、通信星座建设牵引火箭发射需求，全球航天发射自2020年的112次增长至2024年的263次， 商业火箭成为全球发射主力。2)2014年以来国内商业火箭企业快速成长，多型火箭已实现连续成功发 射、执行商业发射任务，朱雀三号、天龙三号等可复用箭型计划在2025-2026年密集 ...

Core Points - The article discusses a significant failure experienced by SpaceX on June 28, 2015, when a Falcon 9 rocket exploded shortly after launch due to a minor component failure [1][6][10] - The incident resulted in the loss of a CRS-7 mission intended to deliver 2,500 kilograms of supplies to the International Space Station [6][10] - The failure was attributed to a broken helium tank support strut, which was designed to withstand 4,500 kilograms of force but failed under less than 900 kilograms [8][10] Summary by Sections Incident Overview - The Falcon 9 rocket launched successfully but exploded 139 seconds into the flight, leading to a complete loss of the vehicle and its cargo [4][6] - The explosion occurred on Elon Musk's birthday, adding a dramatic element to the event [6] Investigation and Findings - SpaceX established an accident investigation committee comprising 34 engineers from NASA, FAA, Lockheed, and SpaceX [8] - The investigation revealed that the failure of a carbon fiber-wrapped stainless steel support strut led to a catastrophic chain reaction, resulting in the explosion [8] Impact on SpaceX and the Industry - The incident caused significant financial losses for SpaceX, estimated in the hundreds of millions of dollars [8] - Despite the setback, SpaceX quickly resumed operations and achieved subsequent successful launches, indicating resilience and a commitment to learning from failures [10] - The event served as a critical lesson for the aerospace industry, emphasizing the importance of rigorous engineering standards and testing [10]