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塑料,重心不断下移
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 05:03
运筹帷幄 决胜千里 塑料 重心不断下移 宝城期货 陈栋 三重利空压制 当前塑料市场正处于"供应压顶、需求承压、成本坍塌"的三重困境之中。在缺乏强有力的政策干预或 需求爆发性增长的背景下,塑料期货 2601 合约将维持震荡偏弱走势。 图为国内聚乙烯社会样本仓库库存走势(单位:万吨) 国庆假期后,受国内外原油期货价格下跌拖累,塑料期货 2601 合约一度下探至 6855 元/吨的低点。当 前塑料下游虽处于"银十"传统旺季,但强预期与弱现实分歧较大,供需结构的深层次矛盾逐步显现。展望 后市,多重利空因素压制下,预计塑料期货 2601 合约将呈震荡偏弱走势。 原油价格持续走低 作为塑料的重要原料,近期国内外原油期货价格在 OPEC+持续增产、全球经济担忧加剧及地缘风险弱 化背景下持续走低。其中,美国 WTI 原油期货价格最低下探至 56.63 美元/桶;布伦特原油期货价格最低 回落至 60.11 美元/桶。二者皆创今年二季度以来新低。上游原料价格大幅下跌,直接削弱了聚乙烯的成本 支撑。隆众资讯数据显示,截至 2025 年 10 月 17 日当周,国内油制线型成本在 7176 元/吨,周度大幅下降 390 元/吨;煤制 ...
三重利空压制 塑料重心不断下移
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-10-21 23:33
Core Viewpoint - The plastic market is currently facing a triple dilemma of "supply pressure, demand pressure, and cost collapse," leading to a bearish outlook for the plastic futures 2601 contract price [5] Group 1: Supply Factors - Domestic polyethylene (PE) production capacity continues to expand, with several petrochemical companies restarting production after maintenance, contributing to a marginal increase in supply [3] - The cost of oil-based polyethylene has significantly decreased, with the domestic oil-based cost reported at 7176 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan/ton week-on-week, while coal-based cost is at 6507 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan/ton [2] - The overall capacity utilization in the petrochemical industry remains low due to overcapacity, leading to increased market supply pressure as companies adopt a "price for volume" strategy to maintain cash flow and market share [3] Group 2: Demand Factors - Demand for plastic is significantly weaker than expected, with the traditional peak season in October not translating into substantial purchasing activity, resulting in a cautious market sentiment [4] - The overall operating rate for downstream polyethylene is at its lowest for the same period in recent years, with limited support from upcoming events like "Double 11" [4] - Domestic polyethylene inventory has slightly increased, with a reported inventory of 54.56 million tons, up 2.12 million tons week-on-week, indicating a lack of strong demand [4] Group 3: Price Dynamics - The pricing logic in the plastic futures market has shifted from being driven by "cost + demand" to "cost + supply," leading to a downward adjustment in market pricing [2] - The Southeast Asian plastic market is currently buyer-dominated, with buyers having ample options and a continuous decline in price expectations [2] - The combination of weak demand and falling costs is expected to keep the price of the plastic futures 2601 contract on a downward trajectory [5]