Core Viewpoint - The rebar steel market is expected to maintain a weak supply-demand balance in 2026, with prices fluctuating between 3000 to 3500 yuan/ton, reflecting a downward trend due to ongoing supply-side policies and weak real estate demand [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - In 2025, global crude steel production is projected to decline, with a total output of 151.71 million tons from January to October, a year-on-year decrease of 1.86% [1] - China's crude steel production is expected to be between 970 million to 980 million tons in 2025, down 2.5% to 3.5% from 2024, driven by environmental restrictions and weak domestic demand [1] - The operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces showed a fluctuating decline, with average daily molten iron output decreasing from a peak of 2.4564 million tons in May to 2.323 million tons by early December [2] Group 2: Demand Trends - China's apparent crude steel consumption from January to October 2025 was 70.8 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 6.37%, with an expected total consumption of 890 million to 900 million tons for the year [2] - Real estate investment in China has weakened significantly, with a 14.77% year-on-year decrease in completed investment from January to October 2025, and new housing starts down by 19.8% [2] - Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, with a decline of 1.1% in November 2025, indicating reduced support for rebar steel consumption [3] Group 3: Export and Manufacturing Insights - China's steel exports reached a record high of 97.73 million tons from January to October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.57%, although export prices are under pressure due to anti-dumping measures from various countries [3] - Manufacturing investment in China showed resilience, growing by 1.9% in the first three quarters of 2025, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors performing particularly well [3] Group 4: Cost and Profitability - The overall inventory in the black industry chain has accumulated, with social steel inventories lower than previous years but depleting slowly [4] - The average import price of iron ore from January to November 2025 was $97.18 per ton, with expectations for further easing in global iron ore supply in 2026 [4] - Rebar steel mill profits fluctuated around 100 yuan per ton, with periods of loss, leading to a cautious production approach and a focus on high-grade iron ore procurement [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - The rebar steel market in 2026 is anticipated to remain in a weak balance of "supply contraction and demand pressure," with strict control over production and limited improvement in the real estate sector [5] - The core market challenge lies in the interplay between policy-driven supply reductions and demand contractions from the real estate downturn, alongside potential risks from overseas mineral supply increases and changing trade environments [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The plastic market is in a triple dilemma of "supply pressure, demand constraints, and cost collapse." Without strong policy intervention or explosive demand growth, the plastic futures 2601 contract will maintain a weak and volatile trend, and its price center of gravity will continue to decline [2][7] Summary by Related Contents Crude Oil Price Decline - Recently, due to OPEC+ continuous production increase, intensifying global economic concerns, and weakening geopolitical risks, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices have continued to decline. The US WTI crude oil futures price dropped to a low of $56.63 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil futures price fell to $60.11 per barrel, both hitting new lows since the second quarter of this year. As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic oil - based linear cost was 7,176 yuan/ton, a weekly drop of 390 yuan/ton; the coal - based linear cost was 6,507 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 94 yuan/ton. It is expected that the support of oil - based cost will weaken, while the coal - based cost will change little [4] Supply - Side Pressure - From the supply side, the inertia of domestic polyethylene (PE) capacity expansion continues. New device launches and the resumption of maintenance have jointly led to a marginal increase in supply. Last week, multiple petrochemical enterprise devices in China restarted, including Dushanzi Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton/year device, Sinochem Quanzhou's 400,000 - ton/year device, Yulin Chemical's 400,000 - ton/year device, Jilin Petrochemical's 280,000 - ton/year device, and Maoming Petrochemical's 250,000 - ton/year device. In the long - term, deeper structural pressure comes from overcapacity, and the "price - for - volume" strategy of enterprises has further increased market supply pressure [5] Demand - Side Weakness - Demand is far less than expected, which is the core factor suppressing plastic futures prices. In October, although it is the traditional peak season for agricultural films, the "peak season effect" is insufficient. After the National Day holiday, downstream demand is mainly rigid, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The "Double 11" promotion has a weakening marginal effect on packaging film demand. The cautious market sentiment has led to a "price - decline - demand - wait - price - decline - again" negative feedback loop. As of the week of October 17, domestic polyethylene social sample warehouse inventory was 545,600 tons, a weekly increase of 21,200 tons, or 4.03%. Among them, the LLDPE social sample warehouse inventory increased by 1.63% week - on - week and 47.55% year - on - year [6]

Core Viewpoint - The plastic market is currently facing a triple dilemma of "supply pressure, demand pressure, and cost collapse," leading to a bearish outlook for the plastic futures 2601 contract price [5] Group 1: Supply Factors - Domestic polyethylene (PE) production capacity continues to expand, with several petrochemical companies restarting production after maintenance, contributing to a marginal increase in supply [3] - The cost of oil-based polyethylene has significantly decreased, with the domestic oil-based cost reported at 7176 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan/ton week-on-week, while coal-based cost is at 6507 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan/ton [2] - The overall capacity utilization in the petrochemical industry remains low due to overcapacity, leading to increased market supply pressure as companies adopt a "price for volume" strategy to maintain cash flow and market share [3] Group 2: Demand Factors - Demand for plastic is significantly weaker than expected, with the traditional peak season in October not translating into substantial purchasing activity, resulting in a cautious market sentiment [4] - The overall operating rate for downstream polyethylene is at its lowest for the same period in recent years, with limited support from upcoming events like "Double 11" [4] - Domestic polyethylene inventory has slightly increased, with a reported inventory of 54.56 million tons, up 2.12 million tons week-on-week, indicating a lack of strong demand [4] Group 3: Price Dynamics - The pricing logic in the plastic futures market has shifted from being driven by "cost + demand" to "cost + supply," leading to a downward adjustment in market pricing [2] - The Southeast Asian plastic market is currently buyer-dominated, with buyers having ample options and a continuous decline in price expectations [2] - The combination of weak demand and falling costs is expected to keep the price of the plastic futures 2601 contract on a downward trajectory [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with total revenue of 14.796 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 35.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.344 billion yuan, down 45.3% year-on-year [6] - The report predicts that the net profit for 2025-2027 will be 5.03 billion yuan, 5.05 billion yuan, and 5.39 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -24.6%, 0.4%, and 6.8% [6] - The company’s dividend policy indicates a minimum annual dividend of 7 billion yuan for 2025-2026, implying a dividend yield of 6.5% [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 28.876 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -12.8% [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 72% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 10.1% [5] - The company reported a net profit margin of 18.95% in Q2 2025, a decrease of 9.63 percentage points year-on-year [6] Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the revenue from liquor sales was 14.494 billion yuan, down 35.4% year-on-year, with sales volume at 78,200 tons, a decrease of 32.4% [6] - The average price per ton of liquor was 185,000 yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year [6] - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 12.67 billion yuan, down 36.5%, while ordinary liquor revenue was 1.84 billion yuan, down 27.2% [6] Cash Flow and Liabilities - The net cash flow from operating activities in Q2 2025 was -1.92 billion yuan, with cash received from sales down 47.5% year-on-year [6] - The company's contract liabilities and other current liabilities at the end of Q2 2025 amounted to 6.101 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous quarter [6]