我的第一反应是错愕。经济究竟是在降温，还是在以另一种方式紧绷？回顾2025年，美国全年就业增长58.4万人，创下疫情后最低纪录，甚至比2010-2019 年任一时期都疲软。这哪里是"软着陆"，简直像飞机在云层里莫名颠簸。而失业率的下滑，更像一盆冷水，浇灭了市场对美联储1月降息的最后幻想——利 率互换合约显示，1月降息概率已归零。那一刻，作为观察者，我清晰感受到一种预期崩塌的失重感：原来，那些关于政策转向的乐观，如此脆弱。 但市场的心理曲线从来不止一个维度。当理性开始复盘，另一条叙事线浮出水面：交易员们仍押注2026年降息约50个基点。这种"短期绝望"与"远期希望"的 拉扯，让油价在震荡中找到了病态的支撑。更不必说，周末中东地缘局势如同一个暗藏的炸药包，任何火星都可能引爆下周油价测试60美元关口。情绪从最 初的恐慌，逐渐沉淀为一种警惕的焦灼——我们仿佛站在十字路口，一边是经济放缓可能压制需求，一边是地缘风险与政策博弈推高成本。油价，成了这场 博弈最敏感的血压计。 油价一夜变天：非农"爆冷"背后，你的油箱还撑得住吗？ 就在你以为能喘口气的时候，市场又给了所有人一记闷棍。昨晚，当我像往常一样刷着手机，瞥见那条"国际 ...

上周五的股票市场强劲反弹推动道琼斯工业平均指数(即道琼斯指数)和标普500指数又一次创下历史最高收盘纪录，而在上周，以价值型大蓝筹公司为核心 的道琼斯指数领涨美国股市的主要指数，单周涨幅超过2%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数当周上涨不到2%，标普500指数则上涨约1.6%。 国际原油价格基准——布伦特原油期货价格在上周也出现了多个月未见的强劲上涨态势，市场在消化美国军方特别军事行动逮捕委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马 杜罗以及特朗普政府对该国石油产业的大规模接管之后，油价时隔多月出现了显著上涨。截至上周五美股市场收盘，国际基准布伦特原油期货价格上周上涨 超过3.7%，美国WTI原油期货价格上涨约2.6%。 展望本周市场，即2026年的第二个完整交易周，可谓是"超级重磅周"。在本周二美国政府将发布消费者价格数据(即CPI)，周三则将公布生产者价格指数 (PPI)以及有着"恐怖数据"称号的零售销售额数据。1月13日周二美国将公布12月CPI数据，华尔街分析师们普遍预期核心CPI环比将出现显著反弹，后续公布 的则将是10月和11月的PPI，以及11月零售销售额。由于美国GDP大约70%的组成部分是靠消费项目所拉动，所以零 ...

当地时间1月8日，欧美股市多数上涨。美股大型科技股涨跌不一，万得美国科技七巨头指数跌0.26%；能源股全线上涨，康菲石油、西方石油涨超5%。 中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超1%。世纪互联涨超10%，万国数据涨超8%，有道涨逾7%。 大宗商品方面，贵金属市场持续大幅波动，其中伦敦现货白银、COMEX白银期货盘中一度均跌超5%，尾盘收窄跌幅；原油期货价格均显著上涨，截至收 盘，美国WTI原油期货、布伦特原油期货价格均涨超4%。 美股三大指数涨跌不一 当地时间1月8日，美股三大指数涨跌不一。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数涨0.55%，纳斯达克指数跌0.44%，标普500指数涨0.01%。 美股大型科技股涨跌不一，万得美国科技七巨头指数跌0.26%。个股方面，亚马逊、谷歌母公司ALPHABET-C、特斯拉涨逾1%；英伟达跌超2%，微软跌 逾1%，苹果、Meta小幅下跌。 | 腾讯音乐 | 17.505 | 5.45% | | --- | --- | --- | | TME.N | | | | 阿里巴巴 | 154.520 | 5.29% | | BABA.N | | | | 万物新生 | 6.0 ...

当地时间1月8日，欧美股市多数上涨。美股大型科技股涨跌不一，美国科技七巨头指数跌0.26%；能源股全线上涨，康菲石油、西方石油涨超5%。 中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超1%。世纪互联涨超10%，万国数据涨超8%，有道涨逾7%。 大宗商品方面，贵金属市场持续大幅波动，其中伦敦现货白银、COMEX白银期货盘中一度均跌超5%，尾盘收窄跌幅；原油期货价格均显著上涨，截至收 盘，美国WTI原油期货、布伦特原油期货价格均涨超4%。 美股三大指数涨跌不一 当地时间1月8日，美股三大指数涨跌不一。数据显示，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数涨0.55%，纳斯达克指数跌0.44%，标普500指数涨0.01%。 欧股方面， 欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一。截至收盘，法国CAC40指数涨0.12%，英国富时100指数跌0.04%，德国DAX指数涨0.02%。 美国上周首次申请失业金人数不及预期 北京时间1月8日晚间，美国劳工部发布的数据显示，截至1月3日当周的首次申请失业金人数经季节性调整后为20.8万，较前一周增加8000人，但略低于21 万的预期值。截至12月27日当周续请失业金人数191.4万人，预期190万人，前值自186.6万 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market showed mixed results on January 8, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.55%, while the Nasdaq index fell by 0.44% and the S&P 500 index remained nearly unchanged with a 0.01% increase [2]. - Major technology stocks experienced varied performance, with the US Technology Seven Index declining by 0.26%. Notable individual stock movements included Amazon, Alphabet, and Tesla rising over 1%, while Nvidia fell more than 2% [3]. Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks listed in the US saw a general increase, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 1.09%. Key performers included Century Internet, which surged over 10%, and WanGuo Data, which rose over 8% [3]. Energy Sector - The energy sector experienced a significant uptick, with ConocoPhillips and Occidental Petroleum both rising over 5%. ExxonMobil increased by more than 3%, and Chevron rose over 2% [3]. Commodity Market - The precious metals market exhibited substantial volatility, with both London spot silver and COMEX silver futures dropping over 5% at one point before narrowing their losses. As of the close, London spot gold rose by 0.48% to $4,477.555 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 0.57% to $4,487.9 per ounce [7]. - The price of crude oil futures saw significant increases, with both WTI and Brent crude oil prices rising over 4% [8]. Employment Data - The US Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3 was 208,000, slightly below the expected 210,000. The number of continuing claims was reported at 1.914 million, above the expected 1.90 million [5]. Interest Rates - US Treasury Secretary indicated that most models suggest the Federal Reserve's interest rate range may fall between 2.5% and 3.25%. Current rates remain significantly above neutral levels, and a reduction of approximately 150 basis points is anticipated by 2026 [6].

今年以来，欧佩克+及其竞争对手持续增加供应，叠加全球原油需求增速放缓，共同引发国际油价大幅 下挫。包括国际能源署(IEA)在内的主流机构均预测，明年原油市场将出现大规模过剩;即便是向来立场 偏乐观的欧佩克秘书处，也预计市场将呈现小幅过剩格局。 智通财经APP获悉，受市场对供应过剩的持续担忧拖累，国际油价正迈向2020年疫情爆发以来最严重的 年度下跌。这一利空因素不仅主导当前市场情绪，还将对新一年的交易走势形成压制。 周二，美国WTI原油期货价格跌破每桶58美元，不仅连续第五个月走低，年内跌幅更是逼近20%。明年 3月交割的布伦特原油期货收盘价站上每桶61美元。交易员近期的关注点集中在即将召开的欧佩克+会 议、一份利空的美国行业报告，以及多起地缘政治紧张事件上。 据三位欧佩克+代表透露，该组织定于1月4日召开视频会议，鉴于供应过剩的迹象日益明显，成员国大 概率会维持暂停进一步增产的既定政策。 会议召开前夕，美国石油学会(API)发布数据显示，上周美国原油库存增加170万桶。若该数据能在本周 三晚些时候获得官方确认，这将是自11月中旬以来的最大单周增幅。同时，API数据还显示汽油和馏分 油库存同步攀升。 地缘政治 ...

本周，白银价格上演史诗级暴涨，COMEX白银期货周五暴涨超11%，现货白银暴涨超10%，再创历史 新高，年内累计涨幅达175%，迅猛涨势远超黄金。在近期暴涨后，现货白银价格已升至每盎司79.19美 元；与此同时，美国WTI原油期货价格收于每桶56.93美元。 这意味着，一盎司白银的价格已超过一桶美国原油——上一次出现这一情形还是在2020年4月份，当时 新冠疫情爆发重创能源价格，但之后油价很快收复了跌幅；再早的纪录则要追溯到1980年。 有分析认为，当前投资者和工业界对白银的需求近乎"来者不拒"。在投资方面，这种贵金属同时被以实 物和金融资产两种形式大量囤积，用于储存财富并对冲美元及其他货币面临的风险。 值得一提的是，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克对白银价格上涨表示担忧。他在社交媒体平台发帖 称："这可不好。白银在许多工业生产过程中都必不可少。"他此番言论是对一篇描述白银价格因"全球 供应严重短缺而暴涨"的帖子的回应。 马斯克的担忧主要源于白银在现代工业中的核心地位。与黄金不同，白银不仅仅是避险资产，更是工业 金属，其在太阳能电池板、电动汽车、电子产品及医疗设备中都具有不可替代的作用。 目前工业需求在白银总需求 ...

Group 1 - The price of spot silver has surged to $79.19 per ounce, surpassing the price of WTI crude oil at $56.74 per barrel, a situation not seen since April 2020 [2] - Analysts note that the demand for silver from investors and the industrial sector is exceptionally high, with significant accumulation in both physical and financial forms for wealth storage and currency risk hedging [2] - The solar energy industry consumes nearly 30% of the annual silver production from mining and recycling, indicating strong industrial demand despite potential reductions in U.S. solar support [2] Group 2 - There is little prospect for a significant increase in silver supply, as global "pure silver" deposits are nearly exhausted, with most silver now being a byproduct of mining other metals like copper, gold, and zinc [3] - Some analysts warn that precious metal prices are at unsustainable levels, predicting a potential drop in silver prices to around $42 by the end of next year as enthusiasm for gold wanes [4] - The market has been in a supply shortage for five consecutive years, with a cumulative shortfall of approximately 25,500 tons expected from 2021 to 2025, driven by both short-term liquidity and long-term structural shortages [4]

Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - The price of silver has surged to $79.19 per ounce, surpassing the price of WTI crude oil at $56.74 per barrel, a situation not seen since April 2020 [1] - There is a strong demand for silver from both investors and industries, with significant accumulation in both physical and financial forms for wealth storage and as a hedge against currency risks [3] - The solar industry consumes nearly 30% of the annual silver production from mining and recycling, indicating robust demand despite potential reductions in U.S. solar support [3] Group 2: Supply Constraints - The supply of silver is unlikely to see significant new production, as global "pure silver" deposits are nearly exhausted, with most silver now being a byproduct of mining other metals like copper, gold, and zinc [3][4] - Changes in silver supply are often driven by the demand for other metals rather than silver itself [4] Group 3: Precious Metals Price Risks - Analysts warn that precious metal prices are at risk of a correction, with some predicting silver could drop to around $42 by the end of next year as enthusiasm for gold wanes [5] - The oil market is facing pressure from oversupply, with WTI crude prices down over 20% year-to-date, and Brent crude down over 19%, both near their lowest levels since 2022 [5] - Energy executives expect oil prices to average around $62 per barrel for next year's capital expenditure planning, significantly lower than previous estimates [5]

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions Impacting Energy Markets - The global energy market is currently facing significant geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Caribbean, Black Sea, and Middle East, raising concerns over supply disruptions [1][5] - The U.S. Coast Guard has intensified its interception actions against Venezuelan oil exports, marking a significant escalation in the blockade of Venezuelan oil [3][4] - Israel is planning new military actions against Iran's missile facilities, which could further destabilize the region and impact oil supply dynamics [5][6] Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Movements - International oil prices surged significantly due to the aforementioned geopolitical risks, with Brent crude futures rising by $1.60 (2.7%) to $62.07 per barrel, and WTI crude futures increasing by $1.49 (2.6%) to $58.01 per barrel [1] - Market participants are reassessing the risks associated with Venezuelan oil supply disruptions, as the likelihood of U.S. sanctions impacting exports has increased [3] - The attack on energy infrastructure in the Black Sea has heightened market sensitivity, contributing to rising oil prices as traders react to the vulnerabilities in energy supply chains [6]