ni 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 核心观点 原油：受美国联邦政府陷入"停摆"影响，国庆长假期间， 国际原油期货价格承压下行。其中，美国 WTI 原油期货价格自节前 高点 66.42 美元/桶连续下挫，期价在假期最低下探至 60.40 美元/ 桶，累计跌幅达 9.06%；布伦特原油期货价格自节前高点 70.76 美 元/桶连续下挫，期价在假期最低下探至 64 美元/桶，累计跌幅达 9.55%；节前国内原油期货 2511 合约自 499.2 元/桶的反弹高点跌 落至 480 元/桶一线下方运行，累计跌幅达 3.90%。受外盘油价大幅 下跌拖累，预计节后国内 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2511 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 偏弱运行 | 避险情绪升温 原油偏弱运行 | 备注： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-10-09 品种晨会纪要 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：国庆长假期间，美国联邦政府意外停摆，系统性风险发生，导致全球金融市场避险情绪 大幅升温，黄金期货走强，其他大宗商品普遍承压。同时，8 个 OPEC+产油国决定 11 月维持增产措 施，增产原油 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The price of spot gold has recently experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a historical peak of $3702.93 per ounce before settling at $3689.60, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and geopolitical risks [1][2] - The weakening of the US dollar, which fell by 0.74% to a low of 96.54, has provided additional support for gold prices, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies [2][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is approaching the $3700 mark, with support levels identified at $3660-3653 and potential upward targets around $3710 and $3750 [4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures have seen a slight decline to $68.46 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures also dropped to $64.51 per barrel, amid concerns over potential supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions [5][6] - The market is anticipating a Federal Reserve interest rate cut of 25 basis points, which is expected to stimulate economic activity and fuel demand [5] - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are currently in a weak consolidation phase, with short-term upward trends expected, particularly if prices break above resistance levels of $66.0-67.0 [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are experiencing a steady upward trend, nearing historical highs due to favorable fundamentals and disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, which suggests a cooling labor market and increased expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [2][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a strong bullish trend, with key support levels at 3600 and 3620, and resistance levels at 3660 and 3675. A potential high-level consolidation phase is anticipated [2][4] - The market is awaiting the release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) to further assess the Federal Reserve's policy direction [2] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices are experiencing a mild rebound, with Brent crude rising by 0.53% to $66.74 per barrel and WTI crude increasing by 0.57% to $62.99 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and U.S. calls for tariffs on Russian oil [5][6] - The current price increase is primarily influenced by short-term geopolitical risks rather than improvements in the fundamental supply-demand balance, with inventory accumulation and OPEC+ production increases being key factors for long-term price trends [5] - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are in a weak consolidation phase, with short-term trading strategies focusing on selling into rallies and buying on dips, with resistance at 64.5-65.5 and support at 62.0-61.0 [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a slight decline, with December futures down by $3.50 to $3385.00 per ounce, while September silver futures rose by $0.302 to $38.075 per ounce [2] - The market is focused on the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to provide insights on monetary policy, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts in September [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in a volatile trading range, with key support at $3325 and resistance at $3350, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with Brent crude rising by 0.19% to $66.97 per barrel and WTI crude up by 0.64% to $63.12 per barrel, supported by a significant drop in U.S. crude inventories [6] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a decrease of 6 million barrels in crude oil inventories, far exceeding market expectations, which has bolstered market confidence [6] - Technical indicators suggest a mixed outlook for oil, with short-term bullish trends but a longer-term bearish sentiment as prices have broken below previous support levels [7]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices fell by 1.8% this week, stabilizing around $3336, influenced by a higher-than-expected PPI increase of 0.9% in July, which raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2][4] - The market's confidence in a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from over 95% to 92% [2] - Technical analysis indicates potential price fluctuations, with key support at $3300 and resistance at $3365, suggesting a bearish outlook in the near term [4][2] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with Brent crude at $67.00 and WTI at $64.10, driven by geopolitical risks and positive economic data [5] - The market remains cautious due to the potential impact of high interest rates, while geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Ukraine, continue to influence supply concerns [5] - Technical indicators show a mixed outlook, with short-term bullish signals emerging after a period of decline, suggesting a potential upward movement in oil prices [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent fluctuations in oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of monetary policy changes, particularly the anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][3][5] - Oil prices have shown a significant increase, with Brent crude futures rising by 1.8% to $66.84 per barrel and WTI crude futures increasing by 2.1% to $63.96 per barrel, marking a recovery from previous lows [3][4] - Geopolitical factors, particularly the relationship between the U.S. and Russia regarding sanctions and military actions in Ukraine, are influencing market dynamics and adding uncertainty to oil supply and pricing [4][5] Group 2 - The interplay of macroeconomic policies, geopolitical developments, and real pressures from inventory and supply data creates a complex environment for oil prices, making it difficult to predict price movements based solely on supply and demand [5] - The market is currently in a state of uncertainty, with traders reacting to short-term price fluctuations rather than committing to long-term trends, influenced by the mixed signals from U.S. policy and Russian actions [4][5] - Investors are advised to focus on short-term support and resistance levels rather than attempting to forecast long-term price directions, given the volatility and multiple influencing factors in the current oil market [5]

Group 1 - International crude oil prices have shown a downward trend since August, with WTI and Brent crude oil futures dropping over 10% from their highs at the end of July [1][2] - Domestic crude oil futures have also fallen below the important threshold of 500 yuan per barrel, with a drop of 10.43% from the July 31 high [2][4] - The decline in prices is attributed to expectations of oversupply and a decrease in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][3] Group 2 - The market has seen a significant reduction in long positions, with WTI non-commercial net long positions decreasing by 14,194 contracts and Brent net long positions down by 19,559 contracts [3][4] - Analysts indicate that the ongoing increase in oil production by OPEC+ has exceeded market expectations, contributing to the downward pressure on prices [2][4] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for global oil supply growth to 2.28 million barrels per day, while the demand growth forecast remains relatively unchanged, leading to an expected oversupply of 1.64 million barrels per day [4][6] Group 3 - Seasonal demand for oil is expected to weaken as the summer consumption peak approaches its end, with overall demand growth projected to be less than 1 million barrels per day for the year [6][7] - The market is likely to seek a temporary balance between long-term supply pressures and short-term demand support, but the overall trend for oil prices is expected to be downward [6][7] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may still influence oil prices in the short term, but the long-term outlook remains bearish due to ongoing OPEC+ production increases and slow global economic growth [7][8]

Group 1 - Oil prices showed a moderate recovery on Thursday, with Brent crude futures rising by $0.28 to $65.91 per barrel, an increase of 0.43%, and WTI crude futures up by $0.23 to $62.89 per barrel, an increase of 0.37% [1] - Geopolitical risks are currently a core variable in the market, with the upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting raising risk premiums. Trump warned of "serious consequences" for Russia if no peace consensus is reached on Ukraine, including potential economic sanctions [3] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts in its September meeting, with a nearly 100% probability of a rate cut, and an increasing likelihood of a 50 basis point reduction [3] Group 2 - The EIA reported an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories by 3 million barrels for the week ending August 8, significantly exceeding market expectations of a decrease of 275,000 barrels [3] - IEA's latest forecast indicates that global oil supply growth in 2025 and 2026 will exceed expectations, driven mainly by OPEC+ production plans and non-OPEC countries' capacity expansion [3] - Technical analysis shows that WTI crude prices found initial support around $62.50 per barrel, with resistance near the $64.20-$64.50 range, close to the 20-day moving average [4] Group 3 - The oil market is currently in a tug-of-war between bullish geopolitical risks and dovish monetary policy expectations, while inventory accumulation and supply expansion exert downward pressure [6] - Short-term volatility will largely depend on the outcome of the US-Russia meeting and the Federal Reserve's policy path in September [6]

Group 1 - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound on Thursday, with Brent crude futures rising by $0.28, or 0.43%, to $65.91 per barrel, and WTI crude futures increasing by $0.23, or 0.37%, to $62.89 per barrel [1] - The previous decline in oil prices was influenced by bearish supply guidance from the U.S. government and the International Energy Agency (IEA), which led both benchmarks to hit two-month lows [1][3] - The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin is injecting a risk premium into the market, with potential economic sanctions hinted at if no peace consensus is reached regarding Ukraine [3] Group 2 - Rystad Energy noted that the uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Russia negotiations has increased the bullish risk premium in the oil market, as Russian oil buyers may face greater economic pressure [3] - The IEA's latest forecast indicates that global oil supply growth in 2025 and 2026 will exceed expectations, primarily due to OPEC+ production increases and rising output from non-OPEC countries [4] - The short-term price movement of WTI crude is supported around $62.50, with resistance observed between $64.20 and $64.50, which is close to the 20-day moving average [4] Group 3 - The market is currently in a tug-of-war between geopolitical factors and expectations of monetary policy easing, which are pushing up risk premiums, while increasing inventories and supply expansion are exerting downward pressure [5] - The outcome of the U.S.-Russia meeting and the Federal Reserve's policy path in September are expected to significantly influence market volatility in the near term [5]