| X | | --- | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | | 二、供应概况 | 4 | | | 三、需求概况 | 8 | | | 四、库存与估值 10 | | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 12 | | | 免责声明 | 13 | | 能化板块研发报告 原油 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 地缘博弈下的风险溢价 交易咨询业务资格： 2026 年 2 月，持续受到美国伊朗地缘政治紧张局势影响，国际油价整体 呈现偏强震荡格局。市场为伊朗供应中断的可能性定价，布伦特原油更是涨 超 70 美元/桶的位置，预估当前风险溢价高达 8-12 美元/桶。其中，美国 WTI 原油期货价格于 2 月 25 日收于 65.42 美元/桶，较上月同期上涨约 7.9%； 英国布伦特原油期货收于 70.85 美元/桶，较上月同期上涨 8%左右。 地缘政治风险仍然是本月核心驱动，美国对伊朗核问 ...

消息面上，国际原油市场在春节假期期间迎来强势反弹，布伦特原油期货累计涨超5%，美国WTI原油 期货累计涨幅超4%。有市场人士分析认为，美伊局势的反复摇摆以及美国贸易政策的突变，是影响油 价走势的重要因素。展望油价后市，西南期货认为，在美伊关系缓和之前，地缘政治风险将呈现高压状 态，推升原油价格。 截至13:57，石化ETF（159731）涨3.74%，持仓股和邦生物、云天化、川发龙蟒涨停。从资金净流入方 面来看，石化ETF（159731）近20个交易日资金净流入总计12.50亿元。石化ETF最新份额达17.61亿 份，最新规模17.84亿元。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）跟踪中证石化产业指数，聚焦"大能源"安全逻辑。 不仅能分享下游化工品的利润修复，此外通过高配"三桶油"等炼化龙头，锁定能源上游资源价值，在油 价上行周期具备更强的业绩韧性。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 信达证券称，2026年原油基本面见底有望，油价中枢有望在多重因素制衡下，维持在55美元/桶~65美 元/桶的区间内宽幅震荡。在供给格局优化、需求稳步复苏背景下，炼化行业有望迎来景气上行周期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil stocks are experiencing significant gains, driven by geopolitical tensions and military deployments in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran's nuclear program [1] Group 1: Company Performance - PetroChina (00857) increased by 3.81%, trading at HKD 9.53 [1] - CNOOC (00883) rose by 2.94%, trading at HKD 25.88 [1] - China Oilfield Services (02883) saw a rise of 3.2%, trading at HKD 10.01 [1] - Sinopec (00386) experienced a modest increase of 0.55%, trading at HKD 5.47 [1] Group 2: Market Impact - International oil prices are stabilizing near six-month highs, with WTI crude oil futures slightly below USD 67 per barrel, having increased approximately 7% over the past two trading days [1] - Brent crude oil futures closed around USD 72 per barrel [1] - Analysts from ANZ Bank highlighted concerns that escalating tensions could disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for approximately 20% of global oil consumption [1]

Market Performance - US stock markets collectively closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.07%, Nasdaq up 0.14%, and S&P 500 up 0.1% [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Apple rising over 3%, Amazon and Nvidia up over 1%, while Tesla and Microsoft fell over 1% [3][4] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced a slight decline of 0.02%, with Broadcom rising over 2% and Qualcomm, ARM, and Applied Materials up over 1% [4] Commodity Market - Precious metals saw a general decline, with London spot gold dropping over 2% to $4878.69 per ounce and silver falling over 4% [8][9] - Crude oil prices also fell, with WTI crude futures down over 2% [10] International Markets - European stock indices closed higher, with France's CAC40 up 0.54%, the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.79%, and Germany's DAX up 0.8% [7]

来源：汇金网 2月2日-2月6日当周，国际原油市场经历了剧烈震荡，多空力量在高位展开了极为激烈的博弈。地缘政治紧张局势的反复与美国经济数据的疲软交织在一 起，令交易员在"供应风险"与"需求担忧"之间艰难抉择。尽管周线录得下跌，终结了此前的六周连涨，但周五的反弹与周K线呈现的典型技术形态，预示着 下一阶段的行情可能面临方向性的抉择。 本周走势回顾：一场多空力量的高位肉搏 本周，两大国际基准原油价格走出了"过山车"般的行情，波动率显著放大。 美国WTI原油期货价格本周开盘即遭遇重挫，周一暴跌超过5%，创下近期最大单日跌幅。然而，跌势并未持续，周二和周三油价迅速反弹，几乎收复了周 初的全部失地。这种强势未能延续至周四，油价再度下跌超过2%。周五，市场情绪再次逆转，油价在盘中下跌后顽强收高。最终，WTI原油周线下跌 3.14%，终结了自去年年底以来的连续上涨势头。 布伦特原油期货的走势与WTI基本同步。周一同样大幅下挫近5%，随后在周二、周三分别反弹2.3%和1.1%。周四转跌后，周五跟随WTI一同收涨。 更为关键的是，从技术形态上看，WTI原油的周K线收出了一根典型的 "长腿十字星" 。这根K线具有极小的实体（几乎 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the U.S. and Iran, have contributed to a significant rise in oil prices, with international crude futures reaching a four-month high amid supply disruptions and a weakening dollar [1][4]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - International crude futures have increased over 10% this month, reaching new highs, with WTI crude at $63.52 and Brent crude at $68.53 [1]. - The Brent crude near-month price spread has exceeded $1, indicating a tightening supply [3]. Group 2: Supply Disruptions - A winter storm in the U.S. has severely impacted oil production, with exports from the Gulf Coast dropping to zero before rebounding [4]. - Kazakhstan's oil production has also faced interruptions, affecting the overall supply dynamics [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. has deployed a significant naval presence in the Middle East, enhancing its military capabilities in response to tensions with Iran [5][6]. - Iran has expressed readiness for dialogue but has also indicated a strong defense posture against U.S. actions [6]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest a shift towards a more positive market sentiment, with concerns over supply surplus diminishing [7]. - The cost of call options remains high compared to put options, reflecting market apprehension about upward price risks [7].

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, which has led to fluctuations in oil prices and inventory levels [5][6][22]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - WTI crude oil futures closed at $61.88 per barrel, up by $0.95, a 1.56% increase; Brent crude oil futures closed at $66.52 per barrel, up by $1.05, a 1.6% increase; INE crude oil futures rose by 1.8% to 457 yuan [7][23]. - Oil prices experienced a sharp drop of nearly 5% after President Trump indicated a temporary pause on military action against Iran, causing market confusion [5][21]. Group 2: Inventory and Supply Data - The EIA reported a 3.39 million barrel increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, reaching 422 million barrels, a 0.81% increase, contrary to expectations of a decrease [8][24]. - Gasoline inventories rose significantly, with a reported increase of 897.7 million barrels, marking the largest increase since December 29, 2023 [8][24]. - U.S. crude oil production decreased by 58,000 barrels per day to 13.753 million barrels per day, while crude oil imports rose to 7.092 million barrels per day, the highest since November 29, 2024 [9][25]. Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Iran has entered a state of heightened alert, preparing for potential military actions, with warnings issued to U.S. allies in the region regarding possible attacks on military bases [10][26]. - The geopolitical situation remains tense, with various countries evacuating personnel and closing embassies in response to the potential for military conflict [5][10]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Strategies - The market is currently focused on geopolitical risks, maintaining a high level of emotional response despite underlying supply and demand pressures indicating an oversupply [6][22]. - Investors are advised to monitor for short-selling opportunities during price spikes while maintaining risk control measures [6][22].

Group 1 - Oil and gas stocks experienced a significant afternoon rally, with WTI crude oil futures for March settling at $60.93 per barrel, an increase of $1.61 or 2.7%, and Brent crude oil futures for March settling at $65.47 per barrel, up $1.60 or 2.5% [1] - Long-term outlook suggests that ongoing international turmoil and regional political uncertainties may support oil price stability. The Federal Reserve's potential resumption of interest rate cuts and the uncertain risks of global trade conflicts are factors to monitor regarding oil price demand expectations for 2026 [1] - Recent institutional buying has been noted, with an increase of 38 million subscriptions in the last two weeks, indicating strong market interest in oil and gas investments [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) include China National Petroleum, Sinopec, CNOOC, and others, collectively accounting for 67.11% of the index [2] - The oil and gas ETF (159697) closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international oil prices has created a stark contrast between rising global costs and the anticipated domestic price drop, reflecting the complexities of current economic conditions and consumer sentiment [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On January 10, WTI crude oil futures closed at $59.12 per barrel, up 2.35%, while Brent crude rose 2.18% to $63.34 per barrel [3]. - The unexpected increase in oil prices is attributed to a combination of weak U.S. non-farm employment growth and a paradoxical drop in the unemployment rate to 4.4% [3][4]. - The market is experiencing a tug-of-war between short-term pessimism and long-term optimism regarding interest rate cuts, which is influencing oil price stability [4]. Group 2: Domestic Fuel Prices - The next round of domestic oil price adjustments is expected to decrease by 80 yuan per ton, translating to a potential drop of 5-7 cents per liter [6]. - Current fuel prices across various regions in China show significant variation, with 92 gasoline prices ranging from 6.53 to 7.82 yuan per liter [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Context - The economic landscape is characterized by uncertainty, with questions surrounding whether inflationary pressures will lead to further increases in energy prices or if underlying economic weakness will negatively impact commodity performance [8]. - The oil price serves as a critical indicator of economic health, reflecting either recovery or stagnation, as consumers and investors navigate a landscape of unpredictability [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a strong rebound, with all three major indices closing higher, driven by key players in the AI computing industry such as Nvidia, TSMC, Broadcom, and Micron Technology [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index reached new all-time closing highs, with the Dow gaining over 2% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by less than 2% [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil futures saw a significant increase of over 3.7%, while WTI crude oil futures rose approximately 2.6%, following geopolitical developments in Venezuela [2] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases are anticipated, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), which are crucial for assessing the US economy's trajectory and inflation trends [2][3] - Analysts expect a notable rebound in core CPI, with predictions ranging from 0.36% to 0.38% for December, significantly higher than the previous months' average of 0.08% [8] Group 4: Labor Market Insights - The December non-farm payroll report indicated a slowdown in the US labor market, with only about 584,000 jobs added in 2025, the lowest since 2003, excluding recession periods [5][6] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, suggesting a "low hiring, low firing" scenario rather than a recessionary decline [6] Group 5: Financial Sector Earnings - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, are set to release their fourth-quarter earnings, marking the beginning of the earnings season [4][11] - Analysts expect strong performance from these banks, driven by net interest income recovery and robust growth in investment banking and wealth management [12] Group 6: TSMC's Performance - TSMC reported a December revenue of approximately NT$335 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, and a total revenue of NT$3.81 trillion for the year, reflecting a 31.6% growth [16] - The company's performance is critical for the AI chip supply chain, with expectations of continued strong demand from major clients like Nvidia and AMD [18] Group 7: Market Sentiment and Projections - Analysts predict that the S&P 500 companies will report an overall profit growth of 8.3% for the fourth quarter, continuing a trend of annual profit growth for ten consecutive quarters [15] - The outlook for the US banking sector is considered constructive, with expectations of sustained profitability and growth in 2026 [12]