Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The net short position of the plastic futures 2601 contract has expanded to 70,759 lots, and it is expected that the contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [7] Group 3: Summary of Specific Content Market Performance - The plastic futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, weakening in oscillation, and closing slightly lower. The intraday price center moved slightly below the 6,900 yuan/ton line, with a minimum drop to 6,885 yuan/ton. At the close, the price closed down 0.85% to 6,888 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased slightly by 8,195 lots to 532,585 lots, an increase of 1.56% [2] Position Changes of Top 20 Long and Short Seats - The positions of the top 20 long and short seats in the plastic futures 2601 contract both increased. The long positions increased by 4,847 lots to 326,503 lots, and the short positions increased by 9,999 lots to 397,262 lots [2] Long Position Changes - Among the top 20 long seats, 13 increased their long positions. Three seats increased by more than 1,000 lots, and eight seats increased between 100 and 1,000 lots [3] Short Position Changes - Among the top 20 short seats, 10 increased their short positions. Four seats increased by more than 1,000 lots, and five seats increased between 100 and 1,000 lots [4] Position Reversal Operations - Three seats carried out long-to-short operations, indicating that they believe the power for the plastic to stabilize and rebound in the future is insufficient. Six seats carried out short-to-long operations, indicating that they believe the plastic is expected to stabilize and strengthen after a short adjustment [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The plastic market is in a triple dilemma of "supply pressure, demand constraints, and cost collapse." Without strong policy intervention or explosive demand growth, the plastic futures 2601 contract will maintain a weak and volatile trend, and its price center of gravity will continue to decline [2][7] Summary by Related Contents Crude Oil Price Decline - Recently, due to OPEC+ continuous production increase, intensifying global economic concerns, and weakening geopolitical risks, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices have continued to decline. The US WTI crude oil futures price dropped to a low of $56.63 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil futures price fell to $60.11 per barrel, both hitting new lows since the second quarter of this year. As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic oil - based linear cost was 7,176 yuan/ton, a weekly drop of 390 yuan/ton; the coal - based linear cost was 6,507 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 94 yuan/ton. It is expected that the support of oil - based cost will weaken, while the coal - based cost will change little [4] Supply - Side Pressure - From the supply side, the inertia of domestic polyethylene (PE) capacity expansion continues. New device launches and the resumption of maintenance have jointly led to a marginal increase in supply. Last week, multiple petrochemical enterprise devices in China restarted, including Dushanzi Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton/year device, Sinochem Quanzhou's 400,000 - ton/year device, Yulin Chemical's 400,000 - ton/year device, Jilin Petrochemical's 280,000 - ton/year device, and Maoming Petrochemical's 250,000 - ton/year device. In the long - term, deeper structural pressure comes from overcapacity, and the "price - for - volume" strategy of enterprises has further increased market supply pressure [5] Demand - Side Weakness - Demand is far less than expected, which is the core factor suppressing plastic futures prices. In October, although it is the traditional peak season for agricultural films, the "peak season effect" is insufficient. After the National Day holiday, downstream demand is mainly rigid, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The "Double 11" promotion has a weakening marginal effect on packaging film demand. The cautious market sentiment has led to a "price - decline - demand - wait - price - decline - again" negative feedback loop. As of the week of October 17, domestic polyethylene social sample warehouse inventory was 545,600 tons, a weekly increase of 21,200 tons, or 4.03%. Among them, the LLDPE social sample warehouse inventory increased by 1.63% week - on - week and 47.55% year - on - year [6]

Core Viewpoint - The plastic market is currently facing a triple dilemma of "supply pressure, demand pressure, and cost collapse," leading to a bearish outlook for the plastic futures 2601 contract price [5] Group 1: Supply Factors - Domestic polyethylene (PE) production capacity continues to expand, with several petrochemical companies restarting production after maintenance, contributing to a marginal increase in supply [3] - The cost of oil-based polyethylene has significantly decreased, with the domestic oil-based cost reported at 7176 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan/ton week-on-week, while coal-based cost is at 6507 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan/ton [2] - The overall capacity utilization in the petrochemical industry remains low due to overcapacity, leading to increased market supply pressure as companies adopt a "price for volume" strategy to maintain cash flow and market share [3] Group 2: Demand Factors - Demand for plastic is significantly weaker than expected, with the traditional peak season in October not translating into substantial purchasing activity, resulting in a cautious market sentiment [4] - The overall operating rate for downstream polyethylene is at its lowest for the same period in recent years, with limited support from upcoming events like "Double 11" [4] - Domestic polyethylene inventory has slightly increased, with a reported inventory of 54.56 million tons, up 2.12 million tons week-on-week, indicating a lack of strong demand [4] Group 3: Price Dynamics - The pricing logic in the plastic futures market has shifted from being driven by "cost + demand" to "cost + supply," leading to a downward adjustment in market pricing [2] - The Southeast Asian plastic market is currently buyer-dominated, with buyers having ample options and a continuous decline in price expectations [2] - The combination of weak demand and falling costs is expected to keep the price of the plastic futures 2601 contract on a downward trajectory [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The plastic futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend, driven by the cost support from stable crude oil prices, reduced polyethylene supply due to plant maintenance, and improved downstream demand during the peak season [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Price and Cost Support - The trading logic in the crude oil futures market comes from three aspects: macro - factor drive with a "tight - to - loose" macro - environment, increased supply as OPEC+ continues to expand production, and rising geopolitical premiums in the oil market. After the game between supply increase and enhanced geopolitical risks, the domestic and international crude oil prices are expected to be volatile and stable, providing cost support for plastic futures [3] 3.2 Domestic Polyethylene Supply - Since September, the weekly output of domestic polyethylene has declined slightly due to the maintenance of devices such as Yulong Petrochemical, Liaoyang Petrochemical, and Yangzi Petrochemical. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the domestic polyethylene enterprise maintenance loss was 14.62 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28 tons. However, considering the planned restarts and new maintenance in the second half of the month, the supply decline momentum is expected to weaken, and the weekly output may stabilize and rebound [4] 3.3 Downstream Demand - With the arrival of the "Golden September" peak season, the profits of films and packaging films have improved. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the domestic film profit rose to - 220 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 24.14%, and the packaging film profit was 148 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 39.62%. The overall operating rate of downstream polyethylene industries reached 42.17%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11%. The demand side is expected to continue growing [5]

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased geopolitical tensions, leading to a stabilization and slight rebound in domestic and international crude oil futures prices [1][2] - Current trading logic in the crude oil market is driven by macroeconomic factors, increased supply surplus expectations, and geopolitical risk premiums [2] - OPEC+ has decided to continue increasing production in October, contributing to expectations of a supply surplus in the fourth quarter [2] Group 2: Polyethylene Production and Demand - Domestic polyethylene weekly production has slightly decreased due to maintenance at several petrochemical facilities, resulting in a significant increase in maintenance loss [3] - As of September 12, maintenance losses for domestic polyethylene reached 146,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 22,800 tons [3] - The upcoming restart of several polyethylene facilities is expected to stabilize production levels, despite some facilities entering maintenance [3] Group 3: Seasonal Demand Trends - The traditional consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" is approaching, leading to a gradual recovery in the plastic end-user demand market [4] - Profit margins in the film and packaging film sectors have improved, with the domestic film industry showing a significant year-on-year improvement in profitability [4] - The overall operating rate of downstream polyethylene industries has increased, indicating a positive trend in production activity [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Since August, affected by the restart of multiple domestic petrochemical plants, the supply of polyethylene has increased, while the demand improvement is insufficient, leading to an increase in inventory. At the same time, the decline in crude oil prices has weakened the cost support for plastics. As a result, the domestic plastic futures 2601 contract has shown a weak and volatile trend recently, with limited room for continued growth [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Futures Decline and Weaken Plastic Costs - In early August, 8 major OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. From April to August 2025, OPEC+ countries cumulatively increased production by 1.919 million barrels per day, reversing the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day implemented in November 2023 [3]. - The consumer side of the crude oil futures market faces a potential threat of seasonal weakening. As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the US refinery operating rate was 96.9%, but it is expected to decline after late August, and the crude oil inventory destocking will slow down [3]. - With the increasing supply pressure and weakening demand in the crude oil futures market, the cost support for plastic futures is expected to weaken [3]. Increase in Domestic Polyethylene Supply Pressure - Since August, multiple domestic petrochemical plants such as Sinochem Quanzhou, Fujian United, and Lanzhou Petrochemical have restarted. Coupled with the new production of Jilin Petrochemical's 400,000 - ton/year HDPE plant in July, the weekly polyethylene production has increased [4]. - As of the week ending August 8, 2025, the domestic polyethylene plant capacity utilization rate was 85.72%, a week - on - week increase of 3.75%. The polypropylene production reached 660,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,700 tons. In July, the domestic polyethylene production increased by 4.48% to 2.7264 million tons [4]. - At the end of July, the social sample warehouse inventory increased by 10.77% to 561,700 tons, and the continuous growth of the upstream supply side has put great pressure on plastic futures prices [4]. Weak Downstream Demand with Future Improvement Expected - In July 2025, the overall average operating rate of the domestic plastic downstream industry dropped to 38.3%, a record low for the same period [5]. - In August, the operating rates of PE packaging film and agricultural film sample enterprises increased slightly week - on - week, but the overall order follow - up is poor, and the polyethylene social inventory continued to accumulate [5]. - Currently, the supply - demand fundamentals of the domestic plastic market are still weak. The supply is increasing due to plant restarts, while the demand is restricted by the off - season. The inventory accumulation pressure remains, and the plastic futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [2][5].