运筹帷幄 决胜千里 塑料 空头优势增强 宝城期货 陈栋 昨日，塑料期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓、震荡偏弱，略微收低的态势。盘中期价重心略微下移至 6900 元/吨一线下方运行，最低下探至 6885 元/吨。收盘时期价略微收低 0.85%，至 6888 元/吨。持仓小幅增加 8195 手，至 532585 手，增幅达 1.56%。 交易所多空持仓排行榜前 20 席位数据显示，塑料期货 2601 合约持仓出现多空双增的态势。其中，多 头合计增持 4847 手，至 326503 手；空头合计增持 9999 手，至 397262 手。由于空头合计增持数量超过多 头合计增持数量，导致净空头寸扩大至 70759 手。 具体来看，塑料期货 2601 合约多头前 20 席位中，增持多单的有 13 家。其中，增持多单数量超过 1000 手的有 3 家，分别为东证期货席位、中信期货席位和光大期货席位，分别大幅增加 1239 手、1069 手和 1063 手。另外，增持多单数量介于 100 手至 1000 手之间的有 8 家，分别为国泰君安期货席位、浙商期货席位、 国联期货席位、银河期货席位、国贸期货席位、方正中期席位、盛达期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The plastic market is in a triple dilemma of "supply pressure, demand constraints, and cost collapse." Without strong policy intervention or explosive demand growth, the plastic futures 2601 contract will maintain a weak and volatile trend, and its price center of gravity will continue to decline [2][7] Summary by Related Contents Crude Oil Price Decline - Recently, due to OPEC+ continuous production increase, intensifying global economic concerns, and weakening geopolitical risks, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices have continued to decline. The US WTI crude oil futures price dropped to a low of $56.63 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil futures price fell to $60.11 per barrel, both hitting new lows since the second quarter of this year. As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic oil - based linear cost was 7,176 yuan/ton, a weekly drop of 390 yuan/ton; the coal - based linear cost was 6,507 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 94 yuan/ton. It is expected that the support of oil - based cost will weaken, while the coal - based cost will change little [4] Supply - Side Pressure - From the supply side, the inertia of domestic polyethylene (PE) capacity expansion continues. New device launches and the resumption of maintenance have jointly led to a marginal increase in supply. Last week, multiple petrochemical enterprise devices in China restarted, including Dushanzi Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton/year device, Sinochem Quanzhou's 400,000 - ton/year device, Yulin Chemical's 400,000 - ton/year device, Jilin Petrochemical's 280,000 - ton/year device, and Maoming Petrochemical's 250,000 - ton/year device. In the long - term, deeper structural pressure comes from overcapacity, and the "price - for - volume" strategy of enterprises has further increased market supply pressure [5] Demand - Side Weakness - Demand is far less than expected, which is the core factor suppressing plastic futures prices. In October, although it is the traditional peak season for agricultural films, the "peak season effect" is insufficient. After the National Day holiday, downstream demand is mainly rigid, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The "Double 11" promotion has a weakening marginal effect on packaging film demand. The cautious market sentiment has led to a "price - decline - demand - wait - price - decline - again" negative feedback loop. As of the week of October 17, domestic polyethylene social sample warehouse inventory was 545,600 tons, a weekly increase of 21,200 tons, or 4.03%. Among them, the LLDPE social sample warehouse inventory increased by 1.63% week - on - week and 47.55% year - on - year [6]

Core Viewpoint - The plastic market is currently facing a triple dilemma of "supply pressure, demand pressure, and cost collapse," leading to a bearish outlook for the plastic futures 2601 contract price [5] Group 1: Supply Factors - Domestic polyethylene (PE) production capacity continues to expand, with several petrochemical companies restarting production after maintenance, contributing to a marginal increase in supply [3] - The cost of oil-based polyethylene has significantly decreased, with the domestic oil-based cost reported at 7176 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan/ton week-on-week, while coal-based cost is at 6507 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan/ton [2] - The overall capacity utilization in the petrochemical industry remains low due to overcapacity, leading to increased market supply pressure as companies adopt a "price for volume" strategy to maintain cash flow and market share [3] Group 2: Demand Factors - Demand for plastic is significantly weaker than expected, with the traditional peak season in October not translating into substantial purchasing activity, resulting in a cautious market sentiment [4] - The overall operating rate for downstream polyethylene is at its lowest for the same period in recent years, with limited support from upcoming events like "Double 11" [4] - Domestic polyethylene inventory has slightly increased, with a reported inventory of 54.56 million tons, up 2.12 million tons week-on-week, indicating a lack of strong demand [4] Group 3: Price Dynamics - The pricing logic in the plastic futures market has shifted from being driven by "cost + demand" to "cost + supply," leading to a downward adjustment in market pricing [2] - The Southeast Asian plastic market is currently buyer-dominated, with buyers having ample options and a continuous decline in price expectations [2] - The combination of weak demand and falling costs is expected to keep the price of the plastic futures 2601 contract on a downward trajectory [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The plastic futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend, driven by the cost support from stable crude oil prices, reduced polyethylene supply due to plant maintenance, and improved downstream demand during the peak season [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Price and Cost Support - The trading logic in the crude oil futures market comes from three aspects: macro - factor drive with a "tight - to - loose" macro - environment, increased supply as OPEC+ continues to expand production, and rising geopolitical premiums in the oil market. After the game between supply increase and enhanced geopolitical risks, the domestic and international crude oil prices are expected to be volatile and stable, providing cost support for plastic futures [3] 3.2 Domestic Polyethylene Supply - Since September, the weekly output of domestic polyethylene has declined slightly due to the maintenance of devices such as Yulong Petrochemical, Liaoyang Petrochemical, and Yangzi Petrochemical. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the domestic polyethylene enterprise maintenance loss was 14.62 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28 tons. However, considering the planned restarts and new maintenance in the second half of the month, the supply decline momentum is expected to weaken, and the weekly output may stabilize and rebound [4] 3.3 Downstream Demand - With the arrival of the "Golden September" peak season, the profits of films and packaging films have improved. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the domestic film profit rose to - 220 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 24.14%, and the packaging film profit was 148 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 39.62%. The overall operating rate of downstream polyethylene industries reached 42.17%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11%. The demand side is expected to continue growing [5]

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased geopolitical tensions, leading to a stabilization and slight rebound in domestic and international crude oil futures prices [1][2] - Current trading logic in the crude oil market is driven by macroeconomic factors, increased supply surplus expectations, and geopolitical risk premiums [2] - OPEC+ has decided to continue increasing production in October, contributing to expectations of a supply surplus in the fourth quarter [2] Group 2: Polyethylene Production and Demand - Domestic polyethylene weekly production has slightly decreased due to maintenance at several petrochemical facilities, resulting in a significant increase in maintenance loss [3] - As of September 12, maintenance losses for domestic polyethylene reached 146,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 22,800 tons [3] - The upcoming restart of several polyethylene facilities is expected to stabilize production levels, despite some facilities entering maintenance [3] Group 3: Seasonal Demand Trends - The traditional consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" is approaching, leading to a gradual recovery in the plastic end-user demand market [4] - Profit margins in the film and packaging film sectors have improved, with the domestic film industry showing a significant year-on-year improvement in profitability [4] - The overall operating rate of downstream polyethylene industries has increased, indicating a positive trend in production activity [4]

近期国内多套石化装置陆续重启，导致聚乙烯产量逐渐回升。据了解，8 月以来，我国境内的中化泉 州、福建联合和兰州石化等多套前期检修的装置于近日陆续重启投产，叠加 7 月吉林石化 40 万吨/年 HDPE 装置新投产，从而导致聚乙烯周度产量小幅增加。据隆众资讯发布的数据显示，截止 2025 年 8 月 8 日当 周，我国聚乙烯装置产能利用率为 85.72%，周环比小幅增长 3.75%。在产能利用率回升带动下，同期国内 聚丙烯产量达 66.02 万吨，周环比小幅增长 2.47 万吨。此外，今年 7 月国内聚乙烯产量小幅增长 4.48%至 272.64 万吨。而面对下游需求偏弱状态，7 月末社会样本仓库库存大幅增加 10.77%至 56.17 万吨，上游供 应端持续增长的态势对塑料期货价格形成较大压力。 下游需求乏力 未来有望改善 处在消费淡季阶段，国内塑料下游需求端整体表现乏力。据隆众资讯发布的数据显示，2025 年 7 月底 国内塑料下游行业整体平均开工率降至 38.3%，环比略微下降 0.4%，同比小幅下滑 2.76 个百分点，创下 历史同期最低记录。步入 8 月以后，虽然 PE 包装膜样本企业开工率周环比略微 ...