1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The plastic futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend, driven by the cost support from stable crude oil prices, reduced polyethylene supply due to plant maintenance, and improved downstream demand during the peak season [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Price and Cost Support - The trading logic in the crude oil futures market comes from three aspects: macro - factor drive with a "tight - to - loose" macro - environment, increased supply as OPEC+ continues to expand production, and rising geopolitical premiums in the oil market. After the game between supply increase and enhanced geopolitical risks, the domestic and international crude oil prices are expected to be volatile and stable, providing cost support for plastic futures [3] 3.2 Domestic Polyethylene Supply - Since September, the weekly output of domestic polyethylene has declined slightly due to the maintenance of devices such as Yulong Petrochemical, Liaoyang Petrochemical, and Yangzi Petrochemical. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the domestic polyethylene enterprise maintenance loss was 14.62 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28 tons. However, considering the planned restarts and new maintenance in the second half of the month, the supply decline momentum is expected to weaken, and the weekly output may stabilize and rebound [4] 3.3 Downstream Demand - With the arrival of the "Golden September" peak season, the profits of films and packaging films have improved. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the domestic film profit rose to - 220 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 24.14%, and the packaging film profit was 148 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 39.62%. The overall operating rate of downstream polyethylene industries reached 42.17%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11%. The demand side is expected to continue growing [5]

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased geopolitical tensions, leading to a stabilization and slight rebound in domestic and international crude oil futures prices [1][2] - Current trading logic in the crude oil market is driven by macroeconomic factors, increased supply surplus expectations, and geopolitical risk premiums [2] - OPEC+ has decided to continue increasing production in October, contributing to expectations of a supply surplus in the fourth quarter [2] Group 2: Polyethylene Production and Demand - Domestic polyethylene weekly production has slightly decreased due to maintenance at several petrochemical facilities, resulting in a significant increase in maintenance loss [3] - As of September 12, maintenance losses for domestic polyethylene reached 146,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 22,800 tons [3] - The upcoming restart of several polyethylene facilities is expected to stabilize production levels, despite some facilities entering maintenance [3] Group 3: Seasonal Demand Trends - The traditional consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" is approaching, leading to a gradual recovery in the plastic end-user demand market [4] - Profit margins in the film and packaging film sectors have improved, with the domestic film industry showing a significant year-on-year improvement in profitability [4] - The overall operating rate of downstream polyethylene industries has increased, indicating a positive trend in production activity [4]

近期国内多套石化装置陆续重启，导致聚乙烯产量逐渐回升。据了解，8 月以来，我国境内的中化泉 州、福建联合和兰州石化等多套前期检修的装置于近日陆续重启投产，叠加 7 月吉林石化 40 万吨/年 HDPE 装置新投产，从而导致聚乙烯周度产量小幅增加。据隆众资讯发布的数据显示，截止 2025 年 8 月 8 日当 周，我国聚乙烯装置产能利用率为 85.72%，周环比小幅增长 3.75%。在产能利用率回升带动下，同期国内 聚丙烯产量达 66.02 万吨，周环比小幅增长 2.47 万吨。此外，今年 7 月国内聚乙烯产量小幅增长 4.48%至 272.64 万吨。而面对下游需求偏弱状态，7 月末社会样本仓库库存大幅增加 10.77%至 56.17 万吨，上游供 应端持续增长的态势对塑料期货价格形成较大压力。 下游需求乏力 未来有望改善 处在消费淡季阶段，国内塑料下游需求端整体表现乏力。据隆众资讯发布的数据显示，2025 年 7 月底 国内塑料下游行业整体平均开工率降至 38.3%，环比略微下降 0.4%，同比小幅下滑 2.76 个百分点，创下 历史同期最低记录。步入 8 月以后，虽然 PE 包装膜样本企业开工率周环比略微 ...