Core Viewpoint - Methanol futures have shown a significant upward trend, with the main contract rising by 2.69% to 2292.00 CNY/ton as of January 23 [1] Inventory and Production - As of January 22, methanol inventory at East China ports was 587,900 tons, down from 647,300 tons on January 15, a decrease of 59,400 tons [2] - Domestic methanol production facility operating rate was 77.41%, a decrease of 0.50 percentage points week-on-week, but an increase of 0.28 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Prices - On January 22, methanol prices in the external market increased: CFR Southeast Asia methanol closed at 321.5-322.5 USD/ton, FOB US Gulf at 94.5-95.5 cents/gallon (up 3 cents), and FOB Rotterdam in Europe at 269.5-270.5 EUR/ton (up 4 EUR) [2] Institutional Perspectives - Chaos Tiancheng Futures holds a bullish mid-term view, expecting short-term strength driven by the chemical sector, while noting limited upside above 2300 CNY due to significant feedback pressure [3] - Zhongcai Futures indicates that methanol futures are in a volatile state, with geopolitical tensions easing and supply remaining ample, leading to high inventory levels at ports and inland [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market dynamics of DCE soybean meal, live pigs, and US soybean prices are influenced by supply and demand patterns, leading to price fluctuations [1] Group 1: DCE Soybean Meal and Live Pig Contracts - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 decreased by 0.03%, closing at 3023 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton [1] - DCE live pig main contract 2509 fell by 55 CNY/ton, closing at 13885 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.39% [1] - The average price of external three-way live pigs nationwide is 13.88 CNY/kg, stable compared to the previous day [1] Group 2: US Soybean Market - CBOT US soybean main contract increased by 0.66%, closing at 995 cents/bushel [1] - The rebound in US soybean futures prices is driven by short covering and cross-market arbitrage [1] - The USDA report indicates that as of August 3, the good-to-excellent rate for US soybeans is 69%, slightly below the previous week’s 70% but above last year's 68% [1] Group 3: Brazilian Soybean Production - Brazil is expected to have a bumper soybean harvest, with farmers' export profits encouraging new planting intentions [1] - Consulting agencies predict that the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season will increase by 962,000 hectares to 48.6 million hectares [1] - Brazil has raised biofuel blending standards, increasing the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% [1] Group 4: Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic soybean meal M09 maintains a strong trend, with attention on the 3100 CNY level [1] - The main funds are shifting focus to M01 contract, with a temporary resistance level at 3120 CNY due to rising import costs from increased Brazilian price differentials [1] - Despite rising soybean meal spot prices, high oil mill inventories and widespread pressure from traders keep the spot basis low, leading to a subdued market [1] Group 5: Live Pig Supply and Demand - The supply side of live pigs may see a reduction at the beginning of the month, followed by a recovery due to potential weight reduction in slaughtering [1] - A recent meeting on July 23 emphasized implementing capacity control measures, including culling breeding sows and reducing stock [1] - On the demand side, pig supply is sufficient, with some regions experiencing a slight demand recovery, although high temperatures limit pork purchasing willingness [1]