库存方面，截至2025年11月26日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在136.35万吨，较上一期数据减少11.58万吨。 其中，华东地区去库，库存减少8.03万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少3.55万吨。 后市来看，国信期货表示，伊装置逐渐兑现检修，沿海心态企稳，关注后期多套装置运行动态，主力延 续减仓。操作建议：震荡思路对待。 11月27日，国内期市能化板块涨跌互现。其中，甲醇期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约报 2114.00元/吨，小幅上涨1.20%。 基本面来看，五矿期货指出，国内产量进一步提升，企业利润持续走低，到港有所回落，供应依旧维持 在相对高位。 需求方面，创元期货分析称，国内需求端近期总体变动不大，近一个月周度表观需求维持于230-240万 吨之间，后续烯烃端关注富德装置检修动态。 ...

Group 1 - The main contract of methanol futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 2021.00 yuan, with a current price of 2030.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 2.45% [1] Group 2 - New Lake Futures predicts that methanol will primarily experience low-level fluctuations in the short term due to sustained upstream operations and high import expectations [2] - The domestic upstream production remains stable, while the import volume is expected to remain high due to significant arrivals in October [2] - Downstream demand is generally weak, with traditional downstream demand showing average performance, although winter fuel demand is anticipated to increase [2] Group 3 - Zhonghui Futures indicates that the methanol market remains under pressure due to high inventory levels, with port inventories at their highest in nearly five years [3] - The supply side is characterized by high operating rates of domestic methanol facilities, while overseas facilities have slightly increased their output [3] - The overall demand remains weak, with MTO external procurement facility loads slightly declining, and traditional downstream operations showing a slight recovery [3]

Core Viewpoint - The methanol futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating and showing weakness due to high inventory levels and weak demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Methanol futures opened at 2103.00 CNY/ton, with a maximum of 2107.00 CNY and a minimum of 2061.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.09% [1]. - The overall performance of the methanol market is characterized by a weak downward trend, with institutions providing mixed outlooks on future price movements [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Supply - Jin Xin Futures reported an accumulation of methanol inventory at ports, with stable demand from Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, while the South China ports saw a slight decrease in inventory [1]. - Wukuang Futures noted that high port inventories are suppressing price performance, with overseas production remaining high and domestic production slightly decreasing, leading to ongoing supply pressure [1]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Demand from downstream sectors is weakening, with traditional demand entering a low season, contributing to a weak overall market performance [1][2]. - Donghai Futures highlighted that both inland and port inventories are increasing, with domestic supply-demand conditions deteriorating, which is expected to continue exerting downward pressure on prices [2]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The current market conditions suggest that prices may continue to decline, approaching import cost levels, although there may be some support from planned shutdowns of Iranian facilities [2]. - The expectation is for prices to remain in a downward trend, with potential for a slowdown in the rate of decline, but overall price space is limited [2].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed mixed results, with methanol futures experiencing a strong upward trend, reaching a high of 2484.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.10% increase [1] - The geopolitical conflict in Iran and coal policy have boosted sentiment in the coal chemical sector, leading to a significant rise in methanol prices, despite weak demand from traditional downstream sectors [1] - Inventory levels for domestic enterprises are low, with most manufacturers facing no inventory pressure, suggesting a potential for price increases in the near term [1] Group 2 - The upstream coal profit remains high, while the coastal MTO profit has slightly declined, indicating a disparity in profitability across the supply chain [2] - The impact of anti-involution policies on methanol production is expected to be limited, as older production facilities constitute a small portion of the total, making significant supply reductions unlikely [2] - The expectation of continued inventory accumulation at ports is likely to suppress spot prices in East China, leading to a bearish outlook on the methanol market fundamentals [2]

Core Viewpoint - Methanol futures experienced a rapid increase, with the main contract peaking at 2522.00 yuan, closing at 2507.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.83% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Guosen Futures suggests a volatile approach to methanol, noting tight supply at the port of Taicang and expectations of reduced future imports, leading to a continued rise in coastal spot methanol prices [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures indicates that the main methanol contract will maintain a strong performance in the short term due to low port inventories and potential underperformance in future import volumes, alongside heightened trading sentiment [3] - Donghai Futures reports a slight retreat in the inland methanol market, but a strong basis in the port market, with concerns over supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions affecting prices [4] Group 2: Price Trends and Projections - Current methanol prices in the market are showing strength, with transactions around 2610-2645 yuan/ton for June and 2580-2590 yuan/ton for July, indicating a robust basis [4] - The market is closely monitoring the impact of geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East, on methanol supply and pricing dynamics [3][4] - The overall demand from downstream sectors remains stable, but the primary concern lies with import levels and the operational status of MTO facilities [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and slightly strong [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - period Views - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillatory trend [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillatory trend [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillatory and slightly strong trend [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - With the digestion of macro - positive factors, the methanol futures price has shifted to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Multiple domestic coal - to - methanol plants have restarted, increasing supply pressure and hitting a new weekly production high. Downstream demand improvement is limited, and the futures profit of methanol - to - olefins has declined, which is not conducive to further reduction of port inventories. With the expected increase in external imports, the pressure of social inventory accumulation will increase in the future [5]. - Thanks to the rebound of domestic coal futures prices, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract rebounded slightly on the night of Wednesday, with the futures price rising 1.80% to 2,257 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory and slightly strong trend on Wednesday [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that the methanol 2505 contract will show a bullish - oscillating trend. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are expected to be oscillating, with an intraday bias towards the bullish side [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The domestic methanol futures 2505 contract showed a bullish - oscillating trend in the night session on Tuesday, with the futures price slightly rising 0.08% to 2485 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a bullish - oscillating trend on Wednesday [5]. Driving Factors - Seasonal maintenance is beneficial to methanol, but the impact is weaker compared to the same period in previous years. Domestic methanol enterprises have entered the peak spring maintenance period, with the device load dropping for two consecutive weeks, but the weekly output is still increasing year - on - year. The scale of spring maintenance has been shrinking in recent years, and it is expected to drop to 5 million tons this year [5]. - The conflict between the US and Iran has escalated. As the US threatens to bomb Iran and Iran responds strongly, there is a risk of disruptions to Iran's methanol exports, increasing the expectation of a decline in imports [1][5].