Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed mixed results, with methanol futures experiencing a strong upward trend, reaching a high of 2484.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.10% increase [1] - The geopolitical conflict in Iran and coal policy have boosted sentiment in the coal chemical sector, leading to a significant rise in methanol prices, despite weak demand from traditional downstream sectors [1] - Inventory levels for domestic enterprises are low, with most manufacturers facing no inventory pressure, suggesting a potential for price increases in the near term [1] Group 2 - The upstream coal profit remains high, while the coastal MTO profit has slightly declined, indicating a disparity in profitability across the supply chain [2] - The impact of anti-involution policies on methanol production is expected to be limited, as older production facilities constitute a small portion of the total, making significant supply reductions unlikely [2] - The expectation of continued inventory accumulation at ports is likely to suppress spot prices in East China, leading to a bearish outlook on the methanol market fundamentals [2]

Core Viewpoint - Methanol futures experienced a rapid increase, with the main contract peaking at 2522.00 yuan, closing at 2507.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.83% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Guosen Futures suggests a volatile approach to methanol, noting tight supply at the port of Taicang and expectations of reduced future imports, leading to a continued rise in coastal spot methanol prices [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures indicates that the main methanol contract will maintain a strong performance in the short term due to low port inventories and potential underperformance in future import volumes, alongside heightened trading sentiment [3] - Donghai Futures reports a slight retreat in the inland methanol market, but a strong basis in the port market, with concerns over supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions affecting prices [4] Group 2: Price Trends and Projections - Current methanol prices in the market are showing strength, with transactions around 2610-2645 yuan/ton for June and 2580-2590 yuan/ton for July, indicating a robust basis [4] - The market is closely monitoring the impact of geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East, on methanol supply and pricing dynamics [3][4] - The overall demand from downstream sectors remains stable, but the primary concern lies with import levels and the operational status of MTO facilities [4]

宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-06-04 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭价格反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着宏观利多因素逐渐消化，甲醇期价转入偏弱供需结构主导的行情。目前国内煤制甲 醇多套装置陆续重启，供应压力再度回升并刷新周度产量历史新高。下游需求改善有限，甲醇制烯 烃期货盘面利润出现回落 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-04-02 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2505 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强震荡 | 美伊矛盾升级，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强震荡 核心逻辑：季节性检修利多甲醇，但力度较往年同期弱。国内甲醇企业进入春检高峰期，装置负荷 连续两周回落，但周产量同比仍增。近年春检规模持续萎缩，预计今年规模降至 500 万吨。随着美 国威胁对伊朗实施轰炸，伊朗 ...