期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-27 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：节后归来，国内原油期货 2604 合约大幅收涨。核心由地缘风险溢价、供应紧平衡、国内 复工需求三重驱动共振。中东局势的反复成为油价波动的核心变量。春节期间，美伊核协议谈判进 展有限，美国在中东增 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘风险减弱，原油震荡偏弱 | 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-26 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：节后归来，国内原油期货 2604 合约大幅收涨。核心由地缘风险溢价、供应紧平衡、国内 复工需求三重驱动共振。中东局势的反复成为油价波动的核心 ...

Core Insights - The global energy supply landscape is undergoing a delicate rebalancing as 2025 approaches, with a slight increase in active oil and gas drilling rigs in the U.S. [1][3] - The total number of active drilling rigs rose by 3 to 545, although this is still 44 rigs short compared to the same period last year, indicating a seasonal adjustment in upstream exploration plans [1][3] - The increase in oil drilling rigs, which rose by 3 to 409, offsets a previous decline, while gas rigs remain high at 127, reflecting a growing demand for clean energy materials over crude oil [1][4] Market Performance - The Permian Basin saw an increase of 1 rig to 247, and Eagle Ford added 2 rigs to reach 41, indicating a recovery in these core production areas due to optimized shale oil extraction costs [2][4] - However, the Frac Spread Count has decreased to 154, down by 47 from the beginning of the year, highlighting bottlenecks in the completion phase of drilling [2][4] - WTI crude oil prices have stabilized at $58.51, while Brent crude is at $62.51, supported by supply-side tightening expectations [2][4] Future Outlook - The cautious recovery in drilling activity is expected to provide a solid bottom support for international oil prices, despite low base activity limiting the potential for supply surges [5] - As the number of completion crews decreases, the consumption of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUC) is expected to accelerate, leading to a tighter supply situation in the coming months [5] - Continuous monitoring of drilling efficiency improvements and geopolitical factors affecting oil risk premiums will be essential for timely market analysis [5]