热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 文章来源：金十数据 投机性动量持续为白银价格提供前所未有的支撑，市场成功将银价推回每盎司91美元上方；然而，一家 银行指出，白银的表现——尤其是相对于黄金而言——可能已经过度。 白银的复苏及其向近期每盎司93美元以上历史高点的回升，已将金银比推低至50点，这是自2012年3月 以来的最低水平。该比率在2025年4月触及100点以上的峰值后，发生了戏剧性的转变。 "当把实物净投资需求也计入时，白银市场看似处于'供应赤字'，这通常被解读为库存正在被消耗。然 而，必须注意，绝大部分库存是由投资者持有的投资性白银。因此，除非观察到投资者正在大规模出售 其持有的实物白银，否则这种'赤字'只是一种会计上的表象，并不意味着可供投资的实物白银总量在实 质性减少。我们的分析表明，一个更好的追踪指标是白银消费（工业+珠宝+银器）与供应（通常超过 消费量）之间的平衡，"分析师解释道。 在当前环境下，蒙特利尔银行表示，投资者需要关注太阳能领域的白银消费。 "自2020年以来，太阳能领域贡献了白银消费增量的58%；然而，由于太阳能安装量趋于平缓以及太阳 能技术中持续进行 ...

Group 1 - The global metal market in 2025 showed significant investment returns, with silver leading at over 127% increase, followed by platinum at 120%, gold at 65%, and copper at 35% [1][4] - GTC ZEHUI Capital indicates that the macroeconomic environment strongly supports both safe-haven and industrial metals [1][4] - A survey of 352 investors revealed that 51% expect silver to continue leading in price increases, while 29% favor gold, and 11% and 10% favor copper and platinum respectively [1][4] Group 2 - Wall Street institutions generally hold an optimistic view on gold and silver, but some top banks and commodity experts believe that platinum group metals (PGM) may outperform in 2026 [2][5] - According to TD Securities, gold prices could exceed $4,400 per ounce in the first half of 2026 due to declining interest rates and currency devaluation pressures [2][5] - GTC ZEHUI Capital forecasts that gold's long-term price range will be anchored between $3,500 and $4,400, unless unexpected resilience in the U.S. job market occurs [2][5] Group 3 - GTC ZEHUI Capital notes a shift in the silver market from a "squeeze" mode to a "flood" mode, with a projected large-scale replenishment of LBMA free float inventory in 2026, potentially reaching 212 million ounces [2][5] - The anticipated recovery in inventory levels may reduce the urgency for silver prices to rise, possibly leading to a price correction in early 2026, with a median estimate around $45 [2][5] - Experts predict that platinum and palladium prices will exceed market consensus by about 20%, driven by tightening lease rates and increased demand from de-urbanization [2][5] Group 4 - Analysts from Heraeus and others warn that after the irrational exuberance of 2025, precious metals may enter a consolidation phase in early 2026 [3][6] - GTC ZEHUI Capital suggests that gold prices may fluctuate between $3,750 and $5,000, with physical demand showing signs of differentiation due to high prices [3][6] - The future of the market may hinge on the degree of labor market weakening, as further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could benefit gold, while a deep recession might pressure industrial metals like platinum [3][6] Group 5 - The 2026 metal market is expected to present both opportunities and volatility, with short-term price adjustments likely [3][6] - Despite potential short-term price digestion, the long-term upward trajectory for gold and silver remains intact due to central bank purchases and distrust in currency credit [3][6] - GTC ZEHUI Capital emphasizes the importance of monitoring the platinum market's supply deficit, which may offer risk premiums exceeding traditional safe-haven assets, while silver's volatility is expected to remain significantly higher than gold [3][6]