更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 5 日星期一 Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 节前瓶片主力价格下跌 30 元至 6016 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6050 元/吨（+30）， 华南瓶片价格 6090 元/吨（+30）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 1678 手至 5.03 万手， 空头持仓减少 2183 手至 5.32 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 33.36 万吨，环比持平。国内聚酯瓶 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震 荡 偏 | 片产能利用率周均值为 73.05%，环比持平；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5445 元，环比+261 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-177 元/吨，环比-59 元/吨。 2、2025 年 11 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 53.3 万吨，较上 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical bottle - chip sector is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View - The supply of bottle chips this week has changed little, downstream factories mainly replenish inventory rigidly, and the market is cautious about the later - stage demand. The export volume of bottle chips in September decreased month - on - month. Affected by the news of the anti - involution meeting in the chemical fiber and polyester industry, the price soared, but the fundamentals may limit the upward space. The short - term bottle - chip price will oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 5650 - 5800 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On the night of Friday, the PR2601 contract fell 16 yuan to 5708 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips rose 10 yuan to 5740 yuan/ton, and the price of South China bottle chips rose 40 yuan to 5790 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 175 lots to 58,300 lots, and short positions increased by 720 lots to 57,200 lots [1] Important Information - Supply, cost, and profit: The domestic polyester bottle - chip output was 341,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,800 tons. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 74.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5234 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 33 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 119 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton [1] - In September 2025, China's polyester bottle - chip exports were 467,700 tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 4,809,100 tons [1] - Considering the risk of oversupply and the improvement of local demand, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures December contract rose 0.32 dollars to 59.75 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.54%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures January contract rose 0.25 dollars to 63.63 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. The China INE crude oil futures 2512 contract fell 3.6 yuan to 456.9 yuan/ton, and rose 2.7 yuan to 459.6 yuan/ton at night [1] - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second consecutive meeting to cut interest rates, in line with market expectations and the fifth interest - rate cut since September 2024 [1] Market Logic - The supply of bottle chips has little change this week, downstream factories mainly replenish inventory rigidly, and the market is cautious about the later - stage demand. The export volume of bottle chips in September decreased month - on - month. Affected by the news of the anti - involution meeting in the chemical fiber and polyester industry, the price soared, but the fundamentals may limit the upward space. The short - term bottle - chip price will oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 5650 - 5800 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]