投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 地缘担忧重又燃起，8月25日美国总统特朗普威胁两周内若未达成协 议，将对俄罗斯实施"大规模制裁"；特朗普表示，两周期限过后，他将 做出决定，"是实施大规模制裁、大规模关税，还是两者兼施——抑或是 不作为，只说'这是你们自己的战争'"。美国立场重回强硬路线，这是 当前原油价格走强的主要原因。与此同时，乌克兰对俄罗斯的袭击仍未停 止，最新报道是用远程无人机袭击俄罗斯波罗的海乌斯季卢加港。 板块逻辑： 化工品仍在"反内卷"的提振下，整体格局延续强势。化工品种表现 最好的是聚酯链，因聚酯不仅有政策的提振，也有产业自身的好转，表现 在终端的需求预期提升，也表现在PTA企业积极减产挺价。纯苯和苯乙烯 链条表现则差强人意，尤其是苯乙烯，港口库存周度攀升，库存绝对值位 于五年同期最高。聚烯烃在8月25日日盘也出现补涨，烯烃自身产业未看 到较大变化，而韩国石脑油裂解的减产，未来石化的强制检修对让市场对 低位的化工品开始试多。乙二醇开工高企的格局下仍然实现周度去库， 五年同期最低的港口库存对期价有支撑。 原油：供应压力延续，反弹持续性预计有限 沥青：地缘溢价再起，沥青期价走高 高硫 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses a macro quantitative framework that combines economic, liquidity, credit, and inflation factors for asset allocation and industry/style configuration [1][3] - The framework has been adjusted based on the changing mapping of macro variables to assets, with a focus on economic and liquidity indicators [1][5] - The performance of aggressive portfolios since 2013 shows an annualized return of approximately 8.5%, with a 0.6% excess return compared to the benchmark [3][5] Group 2 - The article highlights the impact of macroeconomic conditions on industry and style configurations, incorporating credit sensitivity into the analysis [5][7] - The macro-sensitive industry configuration has shown varying performance, with a notable decline since 2022, indicating the need for adjustments in selection criteria [7][10] - The article emphasizes the importance of market expectations in influencing macroeconomic indicators and their relationship with asset performance [13][18] Group 3 - The Factor Mimicking model is introduced to capture market expectations regarding macro variables, using a refined stock pool for better representation [19][20] - The construction of the Factor Mimicking portfolio aims to reflect the market's implicit views on economic, liquidity, inflation, and credit variables [19][23] - The article discusses the need for additional micro mappings to enhance the representation of macro variables, particularly in relation to corporate earnings and valuations [28][30] Group 4 - The article outlines the adjustments made to the macro variables based on market expectations, focusing on economic, liquidity, and credit dimensions [34][36] - The revised indicators are expected to improve asset allocation strategies, particularly in the context of equity markets [39][40] - The performance of the revised industry and style configurations indicates a positive impact from incorporating market expectations into the analysis [46][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report believes that although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still good. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - WTI主力原油期货收跌0.92美元，跌幅1.44%，报63.08美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌0.60美元，跌幅0.90%，报66.11美元；INE主力原油期货收涨5.80元，涨幅1.19%，报495.2元 [1] - 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据显示，汽油库存累库0.36百万桶至7.66百万桶，环比累库4.95%；柴油库存累库0.36百万桶至2.25百万桶，环比累库18.97%；燃料油库存累库0.10百万桶至9.70百万桶，环比累库0.05%；总成品油累库0.72百万桶至19.62百万桶，环比累库3.81% [1] Methanol - 8月12日09合约涨2元/吨，报2391元/吨，现货涨3元/吨，基差 - 14 [4] - 国内开工再度回落，企业利润维持高位，后续供应大概率边际走高；进口卸货速度增快但港口MTO装置停车，港口累库加快；内地受烯烃外采支撑企业库存去化，整体压力较小 [4] - 甲醇估值偏高，下游需求偏弱，价格面临压力，单边受整体商品情绪影响大，建议观望 [4] Urea - 8月12日09合约涨5元/吨，报1727元/吨，现货跌20元/吨，基差 - 17 [6] - 国内开工继续回落，企业利润处于低位，后续预计逐步见底回升，开工同比仍处中高位，整体供应宽松 [6] - 国内农业需求扫尾，进入淡季；复合肥开工因秋季肥生产持续回升，后续需求集中在复合肥和出口端；国内需求整体偏弱，企业库存去化缓慢，同比仍在中高位 [6] - 尿素整体估值偏低，继续回落空间有限，倾向于逢低关注多单等待潜在利多 [6] Rubber - 工业品整体上涨，NR和RU震荡反弹 [8] - 全钢轮胎开工率同比走高，截至2025年8月7日，山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷为60.98%，较上周走低0.08个百分点，较去年同期走高8.72个百分点，国内走货慢但出口表现好；国内轮胎企业半钢胎开工负荷为74.53%，较上周走低0.10个百分点，较去年同期走低4.21个百分点，半钢轮胎工厂库存有压力 [9] - 截至2025年8月3日，中国天然橡胶社会库存128.9万吨，环比下降0.48万吨，降幅0.4%；中国深色胶社会总库存为80.4万吨，环比降0.13%；中国浅色胶社会总库存为48.5万吨，环比降0.8%；截至2025年8月4日，青岛天然橡胶库存50.12（ - 0.73）万吨 [10] - 现货方面，泰标混合胶14600（ + 50）元，STR20报1805（ + 10）美元，STR20混合1800（ + 10）美元，江浙丁二烯9300（ - 50）元，华北顺丁11500（0）元 [11] - 胶价短期涨幅大，宜中性思路，快进快出；多RU2601空RU2509择机波段操作 [11] PVC - PVC09合约上涨37元，报5047元，常州SG - 5现货价4910（ + 20）元/吨，基差 - 137（ - 17）元/吨，9 - 1价差 - 146（ + 2）元/吨 [11] - 成本端电石乌海报价2325（ - 15）元/吨，兰炭中料价格620（0）元/吨，乙烯825（ + 5）美元/吨，烧碱现货800（0）元/吨；PVC整体开工率79.5%，环比上升2.6%；其中电石法78.7%，环比上升2.6%；乙烯法81.5%，环比上升2.5% [11] - 需求端整体下游开工42.9%，环比上升0.8%；厂内库存33.7万吨（ - 0.8），社会库存77.7万吨（ + 5.4） [11] - 企业综合利润上升至年内高点，估值压力大，检修量减少，产量处五年期高位，短期多套装置投产，下游国内开工处五年期低位，出口方面印度反倾销政策延期，雨季末期可能抢出口，成本端电石企稳但难支撑估值；整体供强需弱且高估值，基本面差，需观察后续出口能否扭转国内累库格局，短期跟随黑色情绪反复，建议观望 [11] Styrene - 现货价格上涨，期货价格上涨，基差走弱；市场宏观情绪好，成本端有支撑，目前BZN价差处同期较低水平，向上修复空间大；成本端纯苯开工小幅回落但供应量偏多，供应端乙苯脱氢利润上涨，苯乙烯开工持续上行；苯乙烯港口库存持续大幅去库，季节性淡季需求端三S整体开工率震荡下降 [13][14] - 短期BZN或将修复，待港口库存高位去化后，苯乙烯价格或将跟随成本端震荡上行 [14] - 基本面方面，成本端华东纯苯6180元/吨，上涨20元/吨；苯乙烯现货7375元/吨，上涨50元/吨；苯乙烯活跃合约收盘价7322元/吨，上涨72元/吨；基差53元/吨，走弱22元/吨；BZN价差182元/吨，上涨5.5元/吨；EB非一体化装置利润 - 443.7元/吨，上涨54.2元/吨；EB连1 - 连2价差69元/吨，缩小19元/吨；供应端上游开工率77.7%，下降1.20%；江苏港口库存15.90万吨，去库0.50万吨；需求端三S加权开工率39.09%，下降0.85%；PS开工率55.00%，上涨1.70%，EPS开工率43.67%，下降10.58%，ABS开工率71.10%，上涨5.20% [14] Polyolefins Polyethylene - 期货价格上涨，市场期待中国财政部三季度利好政策，成本端有支撑，聚乙烯现货价格上涨，PE估值向下空间有限；贸易商库存高位震荡，对价格支撑松动，季节性淡季需求端农膜订单低位震荡，整体开工率震荡下行 [16] - 短期矛盾从成本端主导下跌行情转移至高检修助推库存去化，8月产能投放压力大，有110万吨产能投放计划，聚乙烯价格短期内由成本端及供应端博弈 [16] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7329元/吨，上涨15元/吨，现货7300元/吨，上涨15元/吨，基差 - 29元/吨，无变动；上游开工83.44%，环比下降1.50%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存51.54万吨，环比累库8.26万吨，贸易商库存6.12万吨，环比累库0.34万吨；下游平均开工率38.9%，环比上涨0.16%；LL9 - 1价差 - 60元/吨，环比缩小10元/吨，建议空单继续持有 [16] Polypropylene - 期货价格下跌，山东地炼利润止跌反弹，开工率或将回升，丙烯供应边际回归；需求端下游开工率季节性震荡下行；8月聚丙烯仅存45万吨计划产能投放，季节性淡季供需双弱，成本端或将主导行情，预计7月聚丙烯价格跟随原油震荡偏强 [17] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7091元/吨，下跌4元/吨，现货7110元/吨，无变动，基差19元/吨，走强4元/吨；上游开工78.22%，环比上涨0.56%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存58.71万吨，环比累库2.23万吨，贸易商库存18.73万吨，环比累库1.4万吨，港口库存6.11万吨，环比去库0.13万吨；下游平均开工率48.5%，环比上涨0.1%；LL - PP价差238元/吨，环比扩大19元/吨 [17] PX, PTA, and MEG PX - PX09合约上涨54元，报6832元，PX CFR下跌1美元，报834美元，按人民币中间价折算基差33元（ - 61），9 - 1价差84元（ + 18） [19] - PX负荷上，中国负荷82%，环比上升0.9%；亚洲负荷73.6%，环比上升0.2%；装置方面，盛虹、扬子石化负荷提升，威联石化重启，海外日本出光20万吨装置重启，韩国hanwha113万吨装置停车，SK40万吨装置重启 [19] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置方面，台化装置一套重启一套停车，嘉兴石化重启，逸盛新材负荷恢复，英力士降负荷，威联石化重启 [19][21] - 进口方面，8月上旬韩国PX出口中国11.2万吨，同比下降0.5万吨；库存方面，6月底库存413.8万吨，月环比下降21万吨；估值成本方面，PXN为267美元（ + 6），石脑油裂差79美元（ - 5） [19][20] - PX负荷维持高位，下游PTA短期检修增加，整体负荷中枢下降，但因PTA新装置投产，PX有望持续去库，估值下方有支撑，但上方空间短期受限，终端及聚酯较弱压制上游估值；估值目前中性，关注旺季来临后跟随原油逢低做多机会 [20] PTA - PTA09合约上涨20元，报4726元，华东现货上涨5元，报4705元，基差 - 13元（ - 1），9 - 1价差 - 34元（ - 8） [21] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置情况如上述；下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [21] - 库存方面，8月1日社会库存（除信用仓单）224万吨，环比累库3.5万吨；估值和成本方面，PTA现货加工费上涨9元，至201元，盘面加工费下跌16元，至244元 [21] - 供给端8月检修量增加但有新装置投产，预期持续累库，PTA加工费运行空间有限；需求端聚酯化纤库存压力下降，下游及终端即将结束淡季，需等待订单好转；估值方面，PXN在PTA投产格局改善下有支撑向上动力，但受终端和聚酯较弱景气度影响难走扩，关注旺季下游表现好转后跟随PX逢低做多机会 [21] MEG - EG09合约上涨18元，报4432元，华东现货上涨18元，报4502元，基差76元（ + 2），9 - 1价差 - 46元（ - 3） [22] - 供给端，乙二醇负荷68.4%，环比下降0.2%，其中合成气制75.1%，环比上升1.1%；乙烯制负荷64.4%，环比下降1%；合成气制装置方面，通辽金煤重启，山西沃能检修；油化工方面，三江负荷提升，浙石化负荷下降；海外方面，马来西亚装置、沙特sharq3停车 [22] - 下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [22] - 进口到港预报14.1万吨，华东出港8月11日0.86万吨，出库下降；港口库存55.3万吨，累库3.7万吨；估值和成本上，石脑油制利润为 - 299元，国内乙烯制利润 - 584元，煤制利润1051元；成本端乙烯持平至820美元，榆林坑口烟煤末价格下跌至520元 [22] - 产业基本面上，海内外检修装置逐渐开启，下游开工将从淡季恢复但高度偏低，预期港口库存去化放缓；估值同比偏高，检修季结束，基本面由强转弱，短期估值有下降压力 [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate. The majority of FOMC voters this year are more inclined to delay interest rate cuts until after July, and attention should be paid to the impact of interest rates on the global environment. China's manufacturing PMI has slightly increased, and the economy is showing positive signs. The off - season demand remains weak, and the inventories are at relatively healthy levels. There are no obvious contradictions in the static fundamentals. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Politburo meeting in July, the recovery of terminal demand, and the cost - side support for finished product prices [3]. - Although the "Israel - Iran conflict" has eased and crude oil prices have fallen, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market, especially the black sector, has not significantly declined. In the short term, the improvement in sentiment continues, but from a fundamental perspective, the industry still faces an oversupply situation, future demand is expected to weaken, and there is room for cost reduction, so the downward pressure on prices remains [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3003 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.200%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 6393 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 48103 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3136 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.416%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 586 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 3081 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: The aggregated rebar price in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Lecong remained unchanged at 3180 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it was also unchanged at 3200 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The apparent demand for rebar was basically the same as last week, and the increase in production slowed down the de - stocking pace. The production of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, and the inventory started to accumulate slightly. Overall, the off - season demand remained weak, and the inventories were at relatively healthy levels [3]. Iron Ore - **Futures Market**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 708.50 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.98% (-7.00), and the positions decreased by 13897 lots to 65.49 million lots. The weighted positions were 107.50 million lots [5]. - **Spot Market**: The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 705 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 37.93 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.08% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The recent iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - term arrivals also declined. The daily average pig iron production was 242.29 tons. The terminal demand for five major steel products decreased slightly. The port throughput and port inventory increased, while the steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased slightly. In the short term, iron ore prices will fluctuate widely [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On July 1, the main contract (SM509) of manganese silicon continued to decline in a narrow range, closing down 0.32% at 5624 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 166 yuan/ton over the futures price. In the short term, it may continue to fluctuate or rebound slightly, but there is still a risk of price decline [8][10]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract (SF509) of ferrosilicon gapped down and broke the upward trend since June, closing down 1.38% at 5270 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5350 yuan/ton, with a premium of 80 yuan/ton over the futures price. In the short term, its trend has weakened again, and there is a risk of further price decline [8][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On July 1, affected by rumors of production resumption, the main contract (SI2509) of industrial silicon closed down 3.66% at 7765 yuan/ton [14]. - **Spot Market**: The price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 8200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 435 yuan/ton over the futures main contract. The price of 421 was 8800 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, with a premium of 235 yuan/ton over the futures main contract [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The industrial silicon market is still facing over - supply and insufficient demand. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see rather than blindly buy at the bottom. During the price rebound, it is advisable to hedge at an appropriate position [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe was 1130 yuan, up 4 yuan from the previous day, and in Central China, it was 1030 yuan, remaining unchanged. As of June 26, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.216 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 0.671 million heavy boxes (-0.96%) from the previous period, and an increase of 12.39% year - on - year. It is expected that the futures price will be weak in the medium term [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1190 yuan, down 10 yuan from the previous day. As of June 30, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7688 million tons, an increase of 0.0019 million tons (0.11%) from Thursday. The demand for soda ash continued to decline. Although the supply - demand margin improved slightly, the medium - term supply was still loose, and the inventory pressure was large. It is expected that the futures price will be weak [17].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the black building materials market, covering steel, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, glass, and soda ash [1][2][3] - The overall sentiment in the black building materials market has improved recently, but the fundamentals still point downward in the long - term [3][10] - Attention should be paid to policy trends, actual demand recovery, and cost support in the future [3] Group 2: Steel Price and Position - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 2995 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (0.739%) from the previous trading day. The position decreased by 48966 lots to 2.142812 million lots. The Tianjin spot price was flat at 3160 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3080 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3121 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.580%). The position increased by 14041 lots to 1.52471 million lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai increased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2] Market Analysis - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good last week, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate. The special treasury bond funds for equipment renewal will still boost the demand for machinery, but the intensity may decrease compared with the first half of the year [3] - The apparent demand for rebar was basically the same as last week, and the inventory reduction slowed down due to the increase in production. The production of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulated slightly [3] - The demand in the off - season remained weak, and the inventory was at a relatively healthy level. There was no obvious contradiction in the static fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies, the policy trends of the Politburo meeting in July, the recovery rhythm of terminal demand, and the cost support for product prices [3] Group 3: Iron Ore Price and Position - The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 716.50 yuan/ton, up 1.56% (+11.00), and the position increased by 25675 lots to 679,900 lots. The weighted position was 1.0966 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 708 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 33.24 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.43% [5] Supply and Demand - The recent iron ore shipment volume increased, with a significant increase in Brazil's end - of - season rush and a slight increase in Australia's shipment. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries decreased significantly. The near - end arrival volume remained at a relatively high level [6] - The daily average hot metal production was 242.29 tons. There were both blast furnace maintenance and复产, which were normal operations. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased slightly, and the overall demand was neutral [6] - The port dredging volume and port inventory both increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased slightly. The hot metal production remained stable, and the weak performance of ore prices was mainly reflected in the continuous narrowing of the basis. The single - sided absolute price fluctuated in a low - volatility range [6] Group 4: Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Price and Trend - On June 27, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.11% at 5670 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5620 yuan/ton, with a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the futures [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.26% at 5370 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5470 yuan/ton, with a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the futures [8] - The manganese silicon price continued to rebound slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 56 yuan/ton or 1.00%. It broke away from the downward trend line since February, but the strength was weak. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton [9] - The ferrosilicon price also continued to rebound this week, with a weekly increase of 66 yuan/ton or 1.24%. It was approaching the downward trend line since February and encountered resistance at the upper level. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 5500 yuan/ton [9] Market Outlook - Although the short - term market sentiment has pushed up the prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the fundamentals still point downward, with an oversupply pattern, weakening future demand, and potential cost reduction [10][11] - It is not recommended to buy at the bottom prematurely due to the "low valuation". Instead, pay attention to the downward risk and seize hedging opportunities [10][11] Group 5: Industrial Silicon Price and Trend - On June 27, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 3.82% at 8025 yuan/ton. The spot price of 553 in East China was 8100 yuan/ton, with a premium of 70 yuan/ton over the futures, and the 421 price was 8700 yuan/ton, with a discount of 130 yuan/ton after conversion [13] - This week, the industrial silicon price rebounded significantly, with a weekly increase of 625 yuan/ton or 8.45%. It was still in the downward trend since November 2024, and the short - term rebound continued. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 8200 yuan/ton [13] Market Outlook - The market sentiment has improved, and funds are looking for low - priced and "story - telling" varieties. However, the current market heat is lower than that in April 2024 [14] - The industrial silicon market still faces the problems of oversupply and insufficient demand. The short - term price rebound is due to the rumor of a large factory's production cut, but the supply reduction is difficult to maintain in the long - term. Hedging opportunities can be seized during the rebound [14] Group 6: Glass and Soda Ash Glass - The spot price in Shahe was 1130 yuan, flat, and the price in Central China was 1030 yuan, also flat. The spot sales were okay, and some production lines were restarted [16] - As of June 26, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.216 million weight boxes, down 0.96% from the previous period, and the inventory days decreased by 0.3 days to 30.5 days. The net position was mainly shifted between near - and far - month contracts. The real estate demand was not expected to be significantly boosted, and the futures price was expected to be weak [16] Soda Ash - The spot price increased by 13 yuan to 1223 yuan, and the enterprise prices were basically unchanged. The number of maintenance enterprises was small [16] - As of June 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7669 million tons, up 0.63%. The demand for soda ash continued to decline, and the supply - demand relationship improved marginally. The medium - term supply was loose, and the inventory pressure was still large. The futures price was expected to be weak [16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking Coal: No rating provided [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Ferroalloy: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The overall demand for steel is weak, the market sentiment is cautious, and the futures market is under pressure [2] - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate [3] - Coke and coking coal prices may have upward drivers, but are affected by factors such as oil prices [4][6] - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have limited improvement, and the market temporarily expects a short - term rise [7] - The demand for silicon ferroalloy is acceptable, and the market temporarily expects a short - term rise [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The futures market is weakly volatile. The demand for thread in the off - season is under pressure, the production has increased, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coil is resilient, the production remains high, and the inventory has decreased [2] - The blast furnace still has profits, and the molten iron production remains relatively high. However, the off - season carrying capacity is insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation still ferments repeatedly [2] - The downstream demand is weak, the demand expectation is pessimistic, and the market is cautious. Pay attention to terminal demand and policy changes [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore is at a high level, and there is an expectation of a year - end rush. The port inventory in China has begun to stabilize and increase, and the supply pressure has increased marginally [3] - In the off - season, the terminal demand has resilience, the steel mill profitability rate has improved, the molten iron production remains high, and the steel mills have weak willingness to actively reduce production and have short - term replenishment actions [3] - The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the trend is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - The price has risen significantly during the day, and there is an expectation of a price increase in the market [4] - The daily production of molten iron has increased slightly to 242.18 tons per day. The coke profit is meager, and the daily production of coking has continued to decline from the annual high [4] - The overall coke inventory has decreased, and the purchasing willingness of traders is still low. The coke price is affected by oil price fluctuations, and there may be an upward driver [4] Coking Coal - The price has risen significantly during the day. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, which may affect production [6] - The production of coking coal mines has continued to decline. Due to the safety production month and environmental inspections, some mines have reduced production [6] - The spot auction market has improved slightly, the transaction price has risen slightly, and the terminal inventory has continued to decline. The coking coal price is affected by the sharp decline in oil prices and may be strongly volatile [6] Silicon Manganese - The price volatility has increased during the day. Due to previous continuous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, but the weekly production has begun to increase, and the fundamentals have limited improvement [7] - Pay attention to the August forward price of South32 to China. In the short term, the manganese ore inventory is low, and the price of Comilog oxidized ore has risen slightly [7] - The trading logic of the futures market changes rapidly, and it is temporarily bullish in the short term [7] Silicon Ferroalloy - The price has fluctuated upward during the day. The molten iron production has risen above 242, the export demand is about 30,000 tons, and the marginal impact is small [8] - The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, the secondary demand remains high, and the overall demand is acceptable [8] - The supply of silicon ferroalloy has continued to decline, the market transaction level is average, and the inventory has decreased. Some production is in cash - flow loss, which is conducive to inventory reduction, and it is temporarily bullish in the short term [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for each commodity: - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating [9] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [10] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [11] - **Hogs**: Oscillating, with a long - term downward trend [12] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating weakly in the short - term [16] - **Sugar**: Oscillating weakly in the long - term, with a short - term rebound [18] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [19] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural commodities, including their current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and future outlooks. Overall, most commodities are expected to show oscillating trends, with some facing supply pressures and others influenced by seasonal factors and policy changes. For example, hogs are expected to face increasing supply pressure in the second half of the year, while oils and fats may return to range - bound trading [12][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: SPPOMA data shows that from June 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.5% month - on - month, and from June 1 - 15, it decreased by 4% month - on - month. Shipping agencies expect Malaysian palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 to increase by 10% - 17% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: Due to profit - taking and favorable weather in the US soybean growing areas, US soybeans and soybean oil fell last Friday. Domestically, oils and fats trended weakly. The EPA proposal's bullish sentiment may have been released, and there are still uncertainties. US soybean planting is progressing well, and domestic soybean imports are large, with rising soybean oil inventories. Malaysian palm oil production growth in June is limited, and the export outlook is optimistic. Domestic rapeseed oil inventories are high but slowly declining [9]. - **Outlook**: The bullish impact of the EPA's biodiesel proposal may have been priced in. Given the good growth of US soybeans, normal weather, and the palm oil production season, oils and fats are likely to return to range - bound trading, with increased downward pressure recently [9]. Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 23, 2025, the average import soybean crushing profit in China was 76.65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24.87 yuan/ton or 24.5%, and a year - on - year increase of 155.24 yuan/ton or 288.98% [10]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the Rosario Grain Exchange raised Argentina's soybean production forecast by 3 million tons. The bullish sentiment from crude oil and the EPA has been released. US soybean planting and emergence are going well, with normal to slightly above - normal precipitation expected in the next two weeks. Freight costs are rising, and South American soybean premiums are increasing. Domestically, trading sentiment has declined, and the basis in East China has weakened. Soybean arrivals will increase in the next two months, and soybean meal inventories are seasonally rising, but there is no immediate pressure. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, but there may be a supply shortage in the fourth quarter [10]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to trade in a range due to bullish factors and lower - than - expected good - quality rates. Domestically, soybean meal supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is expected to have a short - term correction. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low levels [10]. Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The domestic average corn price is 2422 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [11]. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are stable with a slight increase. In North China, some deep - processing enterprises lowered their purchase prices due to increased arrivals, while other regions were stable to strong. Wheat harvesting is over, and traders are selling more corn. Corn feed inventories are decreasing, indicating weak replenishment demand. South Port inventories are temporarily increasing due to weather but are expected to decline. Imported grains are tightening, and inventory reduction is expected in the 24/25 season [11]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected supply - demand gap, the price is expected to oscillate, but attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of import auctions [11]. Hogs - **Industry Information**: On June 23, the price of Henan's externally - bred hogs was 14.72 yuan/kg, a 1.1% increase from the previous day. The closing price of the active hog futures contract was 13980 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase [12]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the proportion of large hogs for sale is increasing, and the average weight is decreasing. In the medium term, based on the increase in new - born piglets from January to May 2025, the number of hogs for sale is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, the production capacity remains high, and the inventory of breeding sows is increasing. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising is close to the break - even point. Demand is weak due to high temperatures, and hog weights are decreasing. In June, hog farmers started to reduce inventory, but there is resistance to low prices, and the selling rhythm is inconsistent. In the third quarter, there are expectations for peak consumption seasons. In the long term, the hog price is in a downward cycle [12]. - **Outlook**: As hog farmers reduce inventory and it is the off - season for consumption, the supply - demand balance is loose. If inventory reduction is sufficient, the supply pressure may ease, but the number of hogs for sale is expected to increase in the second half of the year [12]. Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: On June 23, the price of RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13820 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan. The price of domestic whole - milk old rubber was 13950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [13]. - **Logic**: Rubber prices oscillated within a range of about 200 yuan. Although the overall commodity market corrected, rubber prices were supported by raw materials. Most Asian rubber - producing areas are in the rainy season, and raw material prices have rebounded slightly. Supply is limited due to rain and the early stage of tapping. Some tire enterprises' production has recovered, and inventory pressure has eased slightly, but the demand outlook is still weak [13]. - **Outlook**: External events are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the duration is uncertain. Rubber prices may maintain a strong - side oscillation due to the low non - standard basis [13]. Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber from two major suppliers in Shandong was 11750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [15]. - **Logic**: With the decline in oil prices and butadiene prices, the market trended weakly. The market is mainly influenced by crude oil and the chemical sector. The overall operating rate has dropped to the lowest level since May, but inventories have increased slightly, indicating weak downstream demand. Butadiene prices oscillated in a small range last week, with a slight increase in the average weekly price. Domestic production has increased slightly, and port inventories have risen, but downstream buying is cautious [15]. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical conflicts may last at least one week, and the market may be affected. Although the fundamental downward trend remains, the market may oscillate strongly in the short term [15]. Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 23, the number of registered cotton warehouse receipts in the 24/25 season was 10493. The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 09 was 13465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [16]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to increase, and other major producing countries such as India and Brazil also have production growth expectations. The US cotton production depends on the third - quarter weather. The downstream market has entered the off - season, with increasing textile inventories and slower production. Cotton commercial inventories have decreased faster than in previous years, and there are concerns about tight inventories at the end of the season, supporting the basis. However, the upward momentum is weak due to weak demand and new - crop production expectations [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton prices are expected to oscillate between 13000 - 13800 yuan/ton. There may be opportunities for reverse spreads [16]. Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 23, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 09 was 5721 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [18]. - **Logic**: The sugar market fundamentals have not changed much. The external market has priced in the expected oversupply in the new season, and the prices of domestic and foreign futures have declined. The Brazilian real has strengthened against the US dollar, and strong crude oil prices support the sugar price. Domestically, the 24/25 sugar production season has ended, and the sales rate is high, with lower inventories than last year. However, there are expectations of concentrated sugar imports. Internationally, Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to increase production in the new season [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected oversupply in the new season, sugar prices are expected to decline. In the short term, there may be a rebound [18]. Pulp - **Industry Information**: According to Longzhong Information, the previous trading day, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5300 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the price of Marubeni was 5700 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; and the price of Arauco was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. - **Logic**: Pulp futures prices rose significantly yesterday, especially for far - month contracts, mainly due to the suspension of new warehouse receipts for bleached needle - leaf pulp. However, the spot market followed the increase only slightly. Fundamentally, pulp imports remain high, and prices are still falling. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream paper enterprises' inventories are increasing, with weak procurement demand. The US dollar price is decreasing, and the current price is not attractive for large - scale inventory building. Although the reduction in deliverable varieties may support the futures price, the supply - demand situation is still loose [19]. - **Outlook**: Due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and the impact of changes in deliverable rules, pulp futures are expected to oscillate. The reasonable valuation range for the 09 contract is 5200 - 5500 yuan/ton [19]. Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu is 760 yuan/cubic meter, and in Shandong, it is 750 yuan/cubic meter [20]. - **Logic**: The log futures market has provided risk - free arbitrage opportunities, leading to increased purchases by arbitrageurs and stronger reluctance to sell among traders, driving up spot prices. The market is currently focused on the delivery logic. Near - month contracts are stable due to delivery support, while far - month contracts are returning to fundamentals. The trading volume of the 2507 contract is increasing, and the ratio of virtual to real positions is high, leading to increased volatility [20]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure of logs is expected to ease at the end of June or early July. The demand is in the off - season from June to August. Although the spot price is supported by the clearance of old stocks, the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coking coal: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The overall demand in the steel industry is weak, with poor improvement in infrastructure and lack of sustainability in real - estate sales recovery. The short - term trend is mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] - Iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon are all affected by geopolitical tensions, with short - term price fluctuations. The supply of iron ore is under increasing pressure, and the risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain still exists. The price rebound space of coke and coking coal is limited due to inventory pressure. Silicomanganese is recommended to short on rallies, and the demand for ferrosilicon is generally okay [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Thread: The apparent demand continues to decline, production drops synchronously, and the de - stocking pace slows down [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Both demand and production decline slightly, and inventory continues to accumulate [2] - Overall: The demand is weak, the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain is fermented repeatedly, and the short - term trend is mainly volatile [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments are relatively strong, domestic arrivals increase, and port inventories stop falling and start to increase [3] - Demand: Terminal demand weakens in the off - season, iron - water production changes little, and the risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain still exists [3] - Overall: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - Supply: Production decreases slightly, and inventory decreases slightly [4] - Demand: Downstream iron - water production remains stable above 241 [4] - Overall: The price rebound space is limited due to inventory pressure [4] Coking Coal - Supply: Mine production decreases slightly, and total inventory increases slightly [6] - Demand: Downstream iron - water production remains stable above 241 [6] - Overall: The price rebound space is limited due to inventory pressure [6] Silicomanganese - Supply: Production starts to recover, and manganese ore inventory accumulates [7] - Demand: Iron - water production declines slightly [7] - Overall: The price is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies [7] Ferrosilicon - Supply: Supply continues to decline [8] - Demand: Export demand is stable, and secondary demand remains high [8] - Overall: The demand is generally okay, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of de - stocking [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (Thread and Hot Rolled Coil)**: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi - empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆★, with a somewhat unclear bias, but the symbol contains a star, indicating a certain upward or downward driving force, but limited operability on the market [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★, with a somewhat unclear bias, but the symbol contains a star, indicating a certain upward or downward driving force, but limited operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for steel products is weak, with the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain still fermenting. The market is in a state of short - term shock, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] - The supply pressure of iron ore is increasing, and there is still a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain in the medium term. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [3] - The prices of coke and coking coal have rebounded slightly. Although the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [4][6] - The price of silicon manganese has rebounded, but the improvement of the fundamentals is limited. It is recommended to try long positions lightly and observe the sustainability of the rebound [7] - The price of silicon ferrosilicon has rebounded, with overall acceptable demand and a slight decline in inventory. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Performance**: The steel futures market showed a weak shock today. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased month - on - month in the off - season, and the inventory reduction slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils decreased, production increased, and inventory began to accumulate [2] - **Demand Situation**: Downstream demand is generally weak. Infrastructure improvement is limited, manufacturing prosperity has slowed down, real - estate sales recovery lacks sustainability, and new construction and construction have continued to decline significantly. Although steel exports remained high in May, the demand expectation is still pessimistic [2] - **Future Trend**: The steel market is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] Iron Ore - **Supply Situation**: Global iron ore shipments continued to rebound and reached a new high this year, and the domestic arrival volume continued to increase. It is expected to remain high in the short term, and port inventory may stop falling and rise [3] - **Demand Situation**: Terminal demand has weakened in the off - season. Although the profitability of steel mills is okay and the motivation for active production reduction is insufficient, there is still a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain in the medium term [3] - **Future Trend**: The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to be mainly volatile [3] Coke - **Market Performance**: The price of coke rebounded slightly [4] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of coke is still at a relatively high level this year, and the overall inventory has increased slightly. Downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [4] - **Future Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US tariff disturbances [4] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The price of coking coal rebounded quickly after a decline [6] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of coking coal mines has declined slightly from a high level, and the overall inventory has decreased slightly. Downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [6] - **Future Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US tariff disturbances [6] Silicon Manganese - **Market Performance**: The price of silicon manganese rebounded driven by coking coal [7] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Due to previous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production has begun to increase. Manganese ore inventory has increased significantly, and it is expected that the quotation of manganese mines will decline [7] - **Future Trend**: It is recommended to try long positions lightly and observe the sustainability of the rebound [7] Silicon Ferrosilicon - **Market Performance**: The price of silicon ferrosilicon rebounded driven by coking coal [8] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of silicon ferrosilicon has continued to decline, and the overall demand is acceptable. The inventory has decreased slightly, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] - **Future Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of the inventory reduction model on the market [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The trade situation affects demand expectations, and the energy and chemical sector is generally in a weak and volatile state. Macro data shows a weakening economic pattern, and chemical demand is unlikely to perform strongly, with futures prices expected to be in a weak and volatile state [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure continues, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical disturbances. Short - term macro - level positives boost oil prices, but terminal demand is weak. OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical factors lead to oil price fluctuations [5] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [5] Asphalt - **View**: The rise in crude oil drives up the asphalt futures price. However, factors such as OPEC+ production increase, sufficient domestic raw material supply, and high asphalt cracking spread suggest that the current price is overvalued [5] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [5] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price rises following crude oil. But with the increase in heavy - oil supply and the weakening of demand drivers, the supply - demand situation is unfavorable [5] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [5] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates following crude oil. It is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with low valuation [6] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [6] LPG - **View**: Demand remains weak, and the rebound space of PG is limited. Although the spot price has stabilized, the fundamental supply is loose, and the demand is weak [6][7] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [7] PX - **View**: Affected by polyester production cuts, PX prices decline. Short - term crude oil weakness squeezes PX cost, and the supply - demand pattern is in a state of game [8] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [8] PTA - **View**: Affected by polyester production cuts, PTA prices decline. PTA is in a state of inventory reduction, but attention should be paid to whether polyester factories increase production cuts [8] - **Mid - term Outlook**: High - level volatile in the single - side market [8] Benzene Ethylene - **View**: The current situation is still poor, and benzene ethylene is expected to be in a weakly volatile state. Although the cost side has improved, supply is increasing, and demand is average [8][9] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [9] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **View**: There is an expected reduction in supply, and the near - end is strong. If US ethane exports are restricted, EG supply will decrease, and current demand is acceptable [10] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [10] Short - Fiber - **View**: Terminal demand is low, and it is difficult to expand the processing fee. Terminal demand is the main negative factor, and the short - fiber may not be stronger than raw materials [10][11] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [11] Bottle Chip - **View**: The processing fee is further compressed, and there are no highlights in the situation. The supply pressure is large, and the price follows the raw materials [13] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [13] Methanol - **View**: The port continues to accumulate inventory, and methanol fluctuates. Supply is relatively loose, port inventory is increasing, and the support from downstream olefins is limited [16] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [16] Urea - **View**: The market is weak, waiting for the callback opportunity when agricultural demand is released. Supply is high, agricultural demand has not yet been concentrated, and industrial demand is weakening [14][16] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [16] LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: Oil prices rebound, and attention should be paid to maintenance changes. The cost side has some support, but the supply pressure is high, and demand is weak [19] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [19] PP - **View**: Oil prices rebound, and attention should be paid to maintenance changes. Similar to LLDPE, the cost side has support, but supply is increasing, and demand is average [20][21] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [21] PVC - **View**: Short - term sentiment warms up, and PVC has a weak rebound. Although the market sentiment has improved, the long - term fundamentals are under pressure due to new capacity, weak demand, and other factors [22] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [22] Caustic Soda - **View**: Strong current situation but weak expectations, mainly short - selling on rallies. Although the current supply is tight, the supply expectation for the 09 contract is pessimistic [22] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [22] Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) is 5 with a change of 0, WTI (M1 - M2) is 0.92 with a change of - 0.04, etc. [23] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 173 with a change of 9, and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [24] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA is - 93 with a change of 10 [25] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not detailed in the content