投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-26 政策利好提振，盘⾯低位反弹 上海地产利好政策出台，叠加重⼤会议期间⾼炉存在减产预期，市场 氛围偏暖，盘⾯低位反弹。但钢材库存压⼒仍存，基本⾯缺乏亮点， 且市场对节后需求预期⼀般，同时铁矿⽯库存压⼒仍在积累，春节后 煤矿复产速度将加快，煤焦下游补库意愿有限，玻纯供需压⼒仍存， 板块盘⾯上⽅空间有限。 上海地产利好政策出台，叠加重大会议期间高炉存在减产预期，市场 氛围偏暖，盘面低位反弹。但钢材库存压力仍存，基本面缺乏亮点， 且市场对节后需求预期一般，同时铁矿石库存压力仍在积累，春节后 煤矿复产速度将加快，煤焦下游补库意愿有限，玻纯供需压力仍存， 板块盘面上方空间有限。 1. 铁元素方面：铁矿石库存压力仍在积累，供应端仍存天气扰动预 期，当前市场对节后需求预期一般，但盘面快速回落后压力有所释 放，节后即将召开两会，宏观预期仍存，关注市场情绪变化。废钢春 节假期期间供需双弱，基本面驱动有限，价格波动不大。 2. 碳元素方面：节后焦炭供需均有小幅增长预期，随着物流运输的 逐渐恢复，焦企累库情况将得到缓解，焦炭供需结构将 ...

Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve's January meeting did not result in an interest rate cut, which was expected, but the market is now focused on the nomination of the next Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, which has shifted expectations for future monetary policy and strengthened the dollar, impacting the copper market [3][17] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Greenland incident, have widened the rift between the US and Europe, leading to a sell-off in US Treasuries and affecting market sentiment [3][17] - In January, China's manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.3%, with a seasonal decline in economic activity, although high-tech manufacturing remains strong, raising expectations for policy measures to stabilize growth [3][17] Copper Market Fundamentals - Domestic TC quotes for copper concentrate remain at historically low levels, indicating persistent tightness in supply, which supports the current market fundamentals [4][18] - Estimated electrolytic copper production for February is 1.1435 million tons, a 0.3% decrease month-on-month but an 8.1% increase year-on-year [4][18] - In December, net imports of refined copper fell by 48.44% year-on-year to 201,800 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 14.81% month-on-month [4][18] - As of January 30, global visible copper inventories rose by 180,000 tons to 1.094 million tons, with LME and Comex inventories also increasing [4][18] Market Sentiment and Price Outlook - The copper market is currently characterized by a "strong expectation" versus "weak reality" dynamic, particularly as the Chinese New Year approaches and copper prices remain high [5][19] - The recent adjustments in precious metals have also impacted copper prices, which are expected to face short-term downward pressure due to weak fundamentals and increasing inventories [5][19] - The market may test support levels of 95,000 to 100,000 yuan per ton, but strong demand and supply constraints could attract long-term investment, providing a solid foundation for future price increases [5][19] Nickel and Stainless Steel Market - The FOB price for nickel ore from the Philippines has surged, with expectations for domestic nickel ore premiums rising [20][21] - February's estimated electrolytic nickel production is expected to decline by 5% to 35,800 tons, while domestic nickel pig iron production is projected to drop by 12% to 20,000 tons [20][21] - Market sentiment has weakened, leading to a decline in nickel prices, but strong fundamentals in nickel ore and nickel pig iron prices suggest ongoing supply concerns [20][21] Aluminum Market Dynamics - In January, domestic metallurgical-grade alumina production was 7.49 million tons, a 0.4% month-on-month decline, while electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.1% to 3.98 million tons [22][23] - The average operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises was reported at 60.2%, with variations across different product categories [22][23] - Inventory levels for alumina and aluminum ingots have increased, indicating a buildup ahead of the holiday season, with expectations for a potential recovery in demand post-holiday [22][23] Silicon and Polysilicon Market - Industrial silicon futures have shown a slight decline, with January production estimated at 333,000 tons, a 6.4% month-on-month decrease [11][24] - Polysilicon production has also decreased significantly, with January output down 28.9% month-on-month [11][24] - The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with ongoing discussions about production cuts and pricing pressures affecting the overall outlook for silicon materials [11][24] Lithium Carbonate Market - Weekly lithium carbonate production has decreased, with expectations for a decline in battery-grade lithium carbonate output in February [14][26] - Demand for lithium materials remains strong, but market sentiment has weakened, leading to price volatility [14][26] - The recent policy changes regarding energy pricing may provide some support for the lithium market, but overall sentiment remains cautious [14][27]

Group 1 - LME copper prices rebounded on January 19, 2025, due to a weaker dollar and stable economic data from China, alongside reduced production forecasts from Chile, the largest copper producer [1][4][7] - The three-month copper price rose by $162.5, or 1.27%, closing at $12,965.5 per ton, following two consecutive days of decline [1][2] - Over the past six months, copper prices have surged by 31%, driven by concerns over potential supply shortages due to mining disruptions [4][6] Group 2 - China's industrial output data showed a year-on-year growth of 5.2% in December 2025, contributing to positive demand sentiment [6] - The GDP for 2025 was reported at 14,018.79 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, slightly above expectations [6] - Chile has revised down its short-term copper production forecasts, delaying the timeline for reaching a production peak of over 6 million tons [7][8] Group 3 - Concerns over weak demand are reflected in rising copper inventories, with LME warehouse stocks increasing by 3,850 tons, or 2.68%, to 147,425 tons [8] - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper contracts fell by 0.7% amid profit-taking and concerns over demand [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

Core Viewpoint - The global supply tightness, geopolitical factors, and demand expectations have led to a significant surge in LME metal futures, with copper and nickel reaching new highs [1] Group 1: Price Movements - LME copper rose by 5.03%, closing at $13,087.5, an increase of $627 [1] - LME aluminum increased by 2.28%, closing at $3,090, up by $69 [1] - LME zinc saw a rise of 2.59%, closing at $3,208, an increase of $81 [1] - LME lead increased by 1.78%, closing at $2,029.5, up by $35.5 [1] - LME tin surged by 5.74%, closing at $42,560, an increase of $2,310 [1] - LME nickel rose by 3.16%, closing at $17,290, up by $530 [1]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market shows a mixed trend, with different agricultural products having their own price movements and influencing factors. For example, natural rubber prices rose due to strong commodity sentiment, but face potential pressure from hedging; while soybean - related products are affected by factors such as South American harvest expectations and domestic inventory levels [1][5]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 (1)油脂 - **观点**: Yesterday, rapeseed oil was relatively strong. Pay attention to the changes in domestic and international oil production and demand expectations. - **Logic**: Concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest led to a bearish trend in US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with rapeseed oil relatively strong. The macro - environment includes a strong US Q3 GDP and a weakening US dollar, and rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical concerns. From the industrial side, South American soybean harvest expectations are strong, US soybean demand is uncertain, domestic soybean inventories are high, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. Palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction period in December, and the probability of inventory reduction in the origin is high. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the later stage. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. The oil market is facing a game of multiple factors and may continue to fluctuate in the near future [5]. (2)蛋白粕 - **观点**: Inventory pressure persists, and the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) prices fluctuate at a low level. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean market is closed during the Christmas period. US soybean crushing volume decreased in November, and exports to China grew slowly. South American soybeans have a good production outlook. Domestically, spot and basis are stable, soybean and soybean meal inventories are slowly decreasing seasonally, downstream aquaculture is in a loss, and consumption is not strong during the peak season. The purchase volume of imported soybeans in Q4 2025 decreased year - on - year, while that in Q1 2026 increased year - on - year. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [6]. (3)玉米及淀粉 - **观点**: Snowy weather has a phased impact on the supply in the production area. - **Logic**: In the upstream, snow in the Northeast has slowed down the grain - selling process, and in the North China region, the purchase of local corn has increased. In the downstream, feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises have different inventory and procurement strategies. The market is in a tight - balance state, with prices having both upward and downward pressures, and is expected to fluctuate within a range. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to factors such as old wheat auctions, grain - selling progress, and downstream profits [8][9]. (4)生猪 - **观点**: The increase in secondary fattening in some areas has led to a stop in the decline of pig prices and a rebound. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, the short - term supply of large pigs is increasing, the medium - term supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive until April 2026, and the long - term supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. In terms of demand, the demand during the Winter Solstice has increased. In terms of inventory, the average weight of pigs has increased. In the short - term, the increase in consumption has driven the rebound of pig prices, but high - weight pigs may limit the price increase. In the medium - term, the supply - demand situation is generally loose, and in the long - term, the supply pressure is expected to gradually weaken. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate weakly. The near - term prices are expected to be weak, while the far - term prices are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction. Pay attention to reverse - spread strategy opportunities [10]. (5)天然橡胶 - **观点**: Strong commodity sentiment has driven up rubber prices. - **Logic**: Natural rubber prices rose strongly yesterday, mainly due to macro - level driving. Although it slightly broke through the shock range, there may still be large hedging pressure above. The current fundamentals lack strong driving forces. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices support the market to some extent, but there is still a risk of decline. The demand side is weak. If there is no continuous capital inflow, rubber prices are likely to return to the range - bound market. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and rubber prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with no obvious trend - based single - side market [12]. (6)合成橡胶 - **观点**: The market rebounded after a decline. - **Logic**: The BR contract recovered all the previous day's losses and rose slightly. It is favored by funds due to the marginal improvement of butadiene fundamentals and the relatively low absolute price of the BR contract. The butadiene market price fluctuated upward last week, but there was resistance to high - price transactions later. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is still short - term upward pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term [14]. (7)棉花 - **观点**: The rebound continues. - **Logic**: In the long - and medium - term, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices are expected to rise, mainly due to the possible tight - balance situation in the new year and potential positive policies. Currently, commercial inventories are accumulating during the peak cotton - listing period. The planting policy is expected to tighten next year, which may lead to a decrease in the cotton - planting area in Xinjiang. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Maintain the strategy of buying on dips [14]. (8)白糖 - **观点**: Short - sellers taking profits have driven up sugar prices. - **Logic**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract rebounded from the low level. Short - sellers taking profits was the main reason for the sharp rise. In the international market, Brazil's sugar production is still at a high level, and the new - season production in the Northern Hemisphere shows different trends. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply in the new season. In the domestic market, the supply of sugar will increase marginally. - **Outlook**: In the long - and medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, as the new - season global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus [16]. (9)纸浆 - **观点**: The warming atmosphere in the commodity market has led to a fluctuating and rising trend in pulp futures. - **Logic**: The pulp futures fluctuated at a high level yesterday. The fundamental factors include both positive and negative aspects. The positive factors are more likely to be realized in the short - term, and the negative factors are mainly related to the transmission of high prices in the long - term. Overall, the positive factors in the pulp market are more, which will push up the bottom of the futures price. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate strongly. Positive news will lift the bottom, but the hedging pressure above still exists [17]. (10)双胶纸 - **观点**: Fluctuate. - **Logic**: The spot price of double - offset paper is stable. Some paper mills have announced price - increase plans for January 2026, which slightly boosts market confidence. However, the supply - surplus situation is difficult to change, and the market expectation is cautious. The supply pressure still exists, downstream demand is weak, and the supply - demand is in a weak - balance state. - **Outlook**: The weak supply - demand pattern is expected to continue, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Pay attention to whether paper mills will shut down production [18]. (11)原木 - **观点**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and logs are expected to fluctuate within a range. - **Logic**: The current contradiction in the log market lies in the realization process of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term supply pressure is gradually relieved, and the futures price of the 03 contract has a certain support level. In the medium - term, the arrival pressure is expected to be relieved, and there are game points in the 03 contract. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the supply pressure is relieved. Pay attention to reverse - spread or low - buying opportunities in the far - month contracts [20]. 2.品种数据监测 - The report only lists the names of various product categories such as "油脂油料", "蛋⽩粕", etc., but no specific data monitoring content is provided. 3.中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**: - The special index shows that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all increased, with increases of 1.08%, 1.01%, and 1.10% respectively. - **板块指数**: - The agricultural product index on December 24, 2025, increased by 0.31% today, with a 0.63% increase in the past 5 days, a - 0.86% change in the past month, and a - 3.52% change since the beginning of the year [178][180].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fed's rate cut and potential bond - buying, along with China's central economic work conference's loose monetary signals, create a warm sentiment in the market despite geopolitical disturbances. For copper, short - term price may rise but consumption may limit the upward trend. For aluminum, with inventory reduction and supply issues, the price is likely to rebound. For lead, low domestic inventory of deliverable products makes the price strong. For zinc, short - term supply reduction and positive market atmosphere may lead to a stronger price. For tin, supply disruptions may drive the price up after macro - risk release. For nickel, short - term price may turn to a volatile state. For lithium carbonate, due to supply - demand uncertainties, it's advisable to wait and see. For alumina, near - cost prices may lead to production cuts, and it's better to observe. For stainless steel, high inventory is a problem, and supply control may bring a turnaround. For cast aluminum alloy, the price may fluctuate within a range [4][5][6][7][10][12][14][16][20][23][26][29] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: After the Fed's rate cut, the US dollar index is weak, and China's central economic work conference raises loose expectations. LME copper 3M rose 2.37% to $11,833/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 94,080 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 875 tons to 165,850 tons. Domestic social and bonded - area inventories increased, and the spot premium in Shanghai decreased. The import loss was about 1,100 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed [4] - **Strategy**: Short - term price may still rise, but the weakening consumption may make the upward movement less smooth. The reference range for SHFE copper is 92,500 - 94,600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $11,600 - 11,950/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The central economic work conference's policy signals made non - ferrous metals stronger. LME aluminum rose 1.14% to $2,895/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 22,175 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum's weighted contract positions slightly decreased, and the futures warehouse receipts increased. Domestic aluminum ingot and billet inventories decreased, and the market transaction was average. The LME aluminum inventory decreased, and the cash/3M remained at a discount [6] - **Strategy**: With the domestic inventory decline, high US spot premium, and low LME inventory, along with supply disruptions and stable downstream production, the aluminum price is likely to rebound. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 22,000 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,850 - 2,920/ton [7] Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE lead index rose 0.21% to 17,157 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1,989/ton. The refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly by 0.13 tons to 2.29 tons [9] - **Strategy**: The lead ore port inventory decreased, and factory inventory increased. Both primary and secondary lead production rates are high, and downstream battery production also increased. With low domestic deliverable inventory, the lead price shows a strong trend in the short - term [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.39% to 23,004 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $3,087.5/ton. The zinc social inventory decreased by 0.78 tons to 12.82 tons. The LME zinc inventory slowly increased, and the 3 - 15 spread was still high [11] - **Strategy**: Zinc ore and zinc ingot supply have decreased. With the positive market atmosphere in the non - ferrous sector, the zinc price may follow copper and aluminum to rise in the short - term after breaking through the pressure level [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On December 11, 2025, SHFE tin fell 0.63% to 320,600 yuan/ton. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 127 tons. Although the supply shortage has slightly eased, conflicts in Congo (DRC) and Nigeria still cause concerns. The traditional demand is weak, but emerging sectors provide support. The high price makes the spot trading cold [13] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, supply disruptions are the key factors for the price. After the macro - risk is released, the tin price may strengthen. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for domestic contracts is 300,000 - 330,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $39,000 - 42,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE nickel fell 0.65% to 115,400 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of different brands were stable, and the nickel ore price was also stable. The nickel iron price rebounded [15] - **Strategy**: Although there is still a large surplus pressure, the short - term price may turn to a volatile state with the stable nickel iron price and warm macro - atmosphere. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $13,500 - 15,500/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index rose 2.61%, and the LC2605 contract rose 3.02% [19] - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation has not changed, and the inventory decline has narrowed slightly. There are uncertainties in supply release and demand. With high positions, the price may fluctuate greatly. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for the LC2605 contract is 95,800 - 103,000 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 11, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.28% to 2,534 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price decreased, and the overseas price also dropped. The futures inventory increased [22] - **Strategy**: After the rainy season, the ore shipment is recovering, and the ore price may decline. The alumina production capacity is still in surplus, but with the price close to the cost line, production cuts may increase. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for the domestic contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the stainless - steel contract fell 0.44% to 12,500 yuan/ton. The spot prices in some regions changed slightly, and the raw material prices were mostly stable. The social inventory decreased [25] - **Strategy**: High inventory is still a problem. If the supply is effectively controlled and downstream restocking demand is released, the market may turn around [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The main AD2602 contract rose 0.17% to 20,945 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions increased, and the inventory decreased [28] - **Strategy**: The cost is firm, and supply disruptions support the price, but the fluctuating demand and delivery pressure limit the upward movement. The price may fluctuate within a range [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's interest - rate cut and expansionary signals, along with China's relatively loose policy signals, create a positive sentiment in the有色金属 market. Different metals have different price trends based on their own supply and demand fundamentals [5][8]. - For copper, short - term prices are expected to continue rising, supported by supply tightening expectations [5]. - For aluminum, prices are expected to rebound due to factors such as inventory reduction and supply disruptions [8]. - For lead, the price shows a relatively strong trend in the short - term as the social inventory of lead ingots is at a low level [10]. - For zinc, in the short - term, the price is expected to follow copper and aluminum to strengthen, but the medium - term supply surplus cycle remains unchanged [12]. - For tin, after the release of macro risks, the price may stabilize and strengthen [15]. - For nickel, the short - term price may turn to a volatile trend [17]. - For lithium carbonate, there may be no clear trend in the short - term, and price fluctuations are likely to be large [20]. - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term as the price is approaching the cost line and the supply reduction expectation is increasing [23]. - For stainless steel, the market is waiting for effective supply - side control and the release of downstream demand to break the current deadlock [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the price is likely to follow the aluminum price in the short - term [29]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper Market Information - The Fed's interest - rate cut and bond - buying plan led to a 0.78% increase in the LME 3M copper contract to $11,559 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 91,770 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 700 tons to 164,975 tons, and the domestic daily warehouse receipt decreased by 0.1 tons to 29,000 tons [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - Short - term prices are expected to continue rising, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 91,200 - 93,300 yuan per ton and the LME 3M copper in the range of $11,450 - $11,800 per ton [5]. Aluminum Market Information - The Fed's actions led to a 0.6% increase in LME aluminum to $2,862 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,960 yuan per ton. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased slightly, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 521,000 tons [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - Prices are expected to rebound, with the SHFE aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,800 - 22,200 yuan per ton and the LME 3M aluminum in the range of $2,830 - $2,900 per ton [8]. Lead Market Information - The SHFE lead index fell 0.26% to 17,121 yuan per ton, and the LME 3S lead fell $4.5 to $1,987.5 per ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory decreased to 20,400 tons [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term price shows a relatively strong trend due to low social inventory of lead ingots [10]. Zinc Market Information - The SHFE zinc index rose 0.08% to 23,095 yuan per ton, and the LME 3S zinc rose $3 to $3,103.5 per ton. The zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 430 tons to 136,000 tons [11]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the short - term, the price is expected to strengthen following copper and aluminum, but the medium - term supply surplus cycle remains [12]. Tin Market Information - On December 10, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract rose 3.30% to 322,630 yuan per ton. The supply shortage has been slightly alleviated, but there are still concerns. The demand in traditional fields is weak, while emerging fields provide long - term support [14]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the release of macro risks, the price may stabilize and strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 300,000 - 330,000 yuan per ton and the overseas LME tin in the range of $39,000 - $42,000 per ton [15]. Nickel Market Information - The SHFE nickel main contract fell 0.64% to 116,150 yuan per ton. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price rebounded [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term price may turn to a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see, with the SHFE nickel price operating in the range of 113,000 - 118,000 yuan per ton and the LME 3M nickel in the range of $13,500 - $15,500 per ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index rose 0.99% to 91,969 yuan. The LC2605 contract closed at 95,980 yuan, up 3.43% [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - There may be no clear trend in the short - term, and price fluctuations are likely to be large. It is recommended to wait and see, with the LC2605 contract operating in the range of 93,200 - 98,600 yuan per ton [20]. Alumina Market Information - On December 10, 2025, the alumina index fell 2.16% to 2,541 yuan per ton. The Shandong spot price fell to 2,710 yuan per ton, and the overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price fell to $311 per ton [22]. Strategy Viewpoint - It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term as the price is approaching the cost line and the supply reduction expectation is increasing. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2,400 - 2,700 yuan per ton [23]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless steel main contract rose 0.44% to 12,555 yuan per ton. The social inventory decreased to 1,080,300 tons, with a 0.54% month - on - month decrease [25]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market is waiting for effective supply - side control and the release of downstream demand to break the current deadlock [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The main AD2602 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 0.58% to 20,930 yuan per ton. The domestic three - place inventory decreased to 49,000 tons [28]. Strategy Viewpoint - The price is likely to follow the aluminum price in the short - term [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Although the geopolitical premium of oil has disappeared and OPEC has increased production in a very limited scale, and its supply has not yet increased significantly, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, the oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3]. - After the positive factors of methanol are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. There are still pressures on the port due to high import arrivals and potential maintenance of olefin plants. The overall supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals of methanol still have certain pressures. It is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. - The urea market is showing signs of improvement in supply - demand. The lower price has support, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [6]. - For rubber, currently hold a neutral - to - bullish view. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks with a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - The PVC market has a poor supply - demand situation. Under the reality of strong supply and weak demand in China, it is difficult to reverse the pattern of over - supply. Before substantial production cuts in the industry, it is advisable to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [18]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. It is expected that the market will be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost - end changes in the first quarter of next year [24]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. Currently, the valuation is at a neutral level. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [27]. - For PTA, the supply - side unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. The demand - side load is expected to remain high in the short term, but the processing fee has limited upside space. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips based on expectations [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is expected to decline in December, but the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still weak. The valuation is currently neutral - to - low, and attention should be paid to the rebound risk [30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 5.60 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.25%, at 443.70 yuan/barrel; related high - sulfur refined oil futures also declined. The geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC has increased production in a limited scale, and its supply has not increased significantly [7]. - **Strategic View**: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3]. Fuel Oil - **Market Information**: High - sulfur fuel oil closed down 16.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.65%, at 2427.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 5.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.17%, at 3009.00 yuan/ton. In the weekly data of Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.26 million barrels to 6.96 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63%; diesel inventory decreased by 0.39 million barrels to 3.19 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 10.91%; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.55 million barrels to 13.79 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 12.62%; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.89 million barrels to 23.93 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 3.88% [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 3, in Lunan increased by 5.5, in Inner Mongolia decreased by 5. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 13 yuan, at 2053 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 25. The 1 - 5 spread was + 1, at - 76 [3]. - **Strategic View**: After the positive factors are realized, the market will enter short - term consolidation. The port inventory is further reduced, but there are still pressures in the future. The overall supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals have certain pressures. It is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong decreased by 10, remained stable in Henan and Hubei. The 01 - contract increased by 2 yuan, at 1645 yuan, with a basis of + 25. The 1 - 5 spread was + 0, at - 68 [6]. - **Strategic View**: The market is rising in shock, and the basis and inter - month spread have strengthened. The demand has improved in the short term, and the enterprise's pre - sales have increased significantly. The export is gradually gathering at the port, and the port inventory has slightly increased. The supply is expected to decline seasonally, and the supply - demand situation has improved. The price has support at the bottom, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price rebounded strongly, possibly due to the escalating signs of the Thailand - Cambodia conflict. The low inventory of RU on the exchange and the Thailand - Cambodia conflict are positive factors for the rubber price. The long - side believes that factors such as weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may limit rubber production, the seasonal pattern usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. The short - side believes that the macro - expectation is uncertain, the demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected. As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.99%, 0.92 percentage points lower than last week and 4.16 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.50%, 1.13 percentage points higher than last week and 5.15 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of November 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 110.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3 tons, an increase of 2.1% [8][9][10][11]. - **Strategic View**: Currently hold a neutral - to - bullish view. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks with a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 39 yuan, at 4328 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4330 (- 30) yuan/ton, with a basis of 2 (+ 9) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 284 (+ 3) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the operating rate of the calcium - carbide method was 82.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 73.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The in - plant inventory was 32.6 tons (+ 0.3), and the social inventory was 105.9 tons (+ 1.6) [14]. - **Strategic View**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a historically low level, but the supply - side maintenance is less, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand is about to enter the off - season, and the demand - side is under pressure. Although exports to India are expected to remain high, it is still difficult to digest the excess production capacity. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand in China, it is difficult to reverse the over - supply pattern. Before substantial production cuts in the industry, it is advisable to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract of pure benzene was 5440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the basis of pure benzene was - 14 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of styrene was 6630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract of styrene was 6469 yuan/ton, a decrease of 138 yuan/ton; the basis was 161 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated device profit of EB was - 225.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.5 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was - 6 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.29%, a decrease of 1.66%; the inventory at Jiangsu port was 16.42 tons, an inventory build - up of 1.59 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S was 42.34%, an increase of 0.10%; the operating rate of PS was 57.60%, an increase of 1.70%; the operating rate of EPS was 54.75%, a decrease of 1.52%; the operating rate of ABS was 71.20%, a decrease of 1.20% [17]. - **Strategic View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral - to - low, and there is a large upward repair space for valuation. The supply of pure benzene is still relatively abundant. The operating rate of styrene continues to increase, and the port inventory continues to build up significantly. The overall operating rate of three S in the demand - side is rising in shock. When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6561 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 44 yuan/ton, a weakening of 34 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The production enterprise inventory was 45.4 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 4.93 tons; the trader inventory was 4.71 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 0.33 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.11%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19 yuan/ton [20]. - **Strategic View**: OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed out. The downward space for PE valuation is limited, but the number of warehouse receipts is at a historical high in the same period, which exerts great pressure on the market. The overall inventory is being reduced at a high level, which will support the price. As the seasonal off - season approaches, the raw material inventory of agricultural films in the demand - side may peak, and the overall operating rate will decline in shock. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6162 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was 48 yuan/ton, a weakening of 21 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The production enterprise inventory was 54.63 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 4.75 tons; the trader inventory was 20.05 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 1.29 tons; the port inventory was 6.53 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 0.05 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The LL - PP spread was 399 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 37 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategic View**: The EIA monthly report predicts that global oil inventory will rebound, and the supply surplus may expand. There is still 145 tons of planned production capacity on the supply - side, with relatively high pressure. The downstream operating rate fluctuates seasonally on the demand - side. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The number of warehouse receipts is at a historical high in the same period. It is expected that the market will be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost - end changes in the first quarter of next year [24]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 26 yuan, at 6754 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged, at 832 US dollars. The basis was 39 yuan (+ 32), and the 1 - 3 spread was 8 yuan (+ 8). The operating rate in China was 88.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the operating rate in Asia was 78.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The domestic situation remained largely unchanged, and the overseas Saudi Satorp was restarted. The PTA operating rate was 73.7%, unchanged month - on - month. The domestic situation remained largely unchanged, and the Chinese - Taiwan CAPCO was under maintenance. In November, South Korea exported 39 tons of PX to China, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5 tons. At the end of October, the inventory was 407.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 tons. The PXN was 269 US dollars (- 1), the South Korean PX - MX was 123 US dollars (+ 2), and the naphtha crack spread was 108 US dollars (- 5) [26]. - **Strategic View**: Currently, the PX operating rate remains at a high level, and there are many PTA maintenance operations downstream, with a relatively low overall operating rate center. The large - scale PTA production and the expectation of the upcoming off - season downstream suppress the PTA processing fee. The low PTA operating rate makes it difficult to continuously reduce the PX inventory. It is expected that PX will have a slight inventory build - up in December. Currently, the valuation is at a neutral level. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 28 yuan, at 4616 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 25 yuan, at 4605 yuan. The basis was - 25 yuan (+ 1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 68 yuan (- 4). The PTA operating rate was 73.7%, unchanged month - on - month. The domestic situation remained largely unchanged, and the Chinese - Taiwan CAPCO was under maintenance. The downstream operating rate was 91.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. Some devices were restarted or under maintenance, and some new devices were put into production. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 2% to 85%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 3% to 69%. On December 5, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 216.9 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 0.4 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan, to 154 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market decreased by 5 yuan, to

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - Energy and chemical industries continue to show weak and volatile trends, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists [8] - **Market News**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending December 5 decreased by 4.779 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 6.955 million barrels, and refined oil inventory increased by 1.027 million barrels. The EIA raised the 2025 US oil production forecast by 20,000 barrels to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day and lowered the 2026 forecast by 50,000 barrels to an average of 13.53 million barrels per day [8] - **Main Logic**: Oil prices continue to decline within the range, and the volatile pattern persists due to continuous supply pressure and unclear geopolitical directions. The API data shows seasonal characteristics of crude oil destocking and refined oil inventory build - up under high refinery operating rates. After the significant slowdown of OPEC + net quota growth in the fourth quarter, the production trend is not obvious, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Russian oil prices are weakening, and floating storage is rising, resulting in a marginal decrease in effective supply. The long - short game continues, and the market is viewed as volatile [8] - **Outlook**: The expected oversupply pattern in fundamentals continues, and geopolitical expectations fluctuate. The market is expected to remain volatile [8] Asphalt - **View**: Demand expectations deteriorate, and asphalt futures prices decline in a volatile manner [10] - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and there is still a probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Oil prices fell from high levels. The market sentiment was poor, and black varieties declined sharply. After the futures pricing returned to Shandong spot, the focus is on Shandong spot price changes. Shandong spot prices have fallen to around 2,900 yuan, and the high valuation of asphalt continues to be revised down. The supply - demand situation of asphalt is weak, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply shortage problem has been resolved, and the pricing weight of asphalt futures prices has returned to Shandong. Under the background of negative growth in transportation fixed - asset investment, the inventory build - up pressure of asphalt is still high. Currently, the valuation of asphalt relative to fuel oil is normal, but it is still high relative to crude oil, rebar, and low - sulfur fuel oil, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [10] - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [10] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is insufficient [10] - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and there is still a probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. The near - term conflict between Russia and Ukraine is ongoing, but a far - end agreement is still expected. The decline of crude oil from high levels led to the decline of high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil, namely the Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery purchases, and the Palestine - Israel conflict, are currently weak. Especially, Saudi Arabia recently announced that it will purchase Russian LNG, reducing the expected demand for Saudi fuel oil power generation next summer. In the off - season, refinery operating rates have dropped significantly, and refinery processing demand is weak. The US currently uses gas oil feedstock to replace residue feedstock, and it is the off - season for power generation in the Middle East. Fuel oil demand is still weak [10] - **Outlook**: The impact of geopolitical escalation on prices is destined to be short - term. Pay attention to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [10] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil [10] - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. The recent strengthening of natural gas has boosted the demand expectations of low - sulfur fuel oil, supporting the refined oil cracking spread and the oil - gas substitution effect. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong main product attributes and is supported. However, low - sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Its valuation is low and is expected to follow the changes of crude oil. On the fundamental side, the supply pressure of domestic refined oil has increased significantly, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals will probably be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil faces a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The unexpected maintenance of the Kuwait Azur refinery in the fourth quarter and the unstable operation of the Dangote refinery have led to an unexpected decline in low - sulfur fuel oil supply, promoting the recovery of its valuation [10][11] - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is subject to green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand space, but its current valuation is low and it will follow the fluctuations of crude oil [11] PX - **View**: Cost support is weak, and general market sentiment drags down PX prices [12] - **Main Logic**: The sharp decline of international oil prices and the partial return of geopolitical premium due to the expected Russia - Ukraine peace talks have led to the collapse of cost support. PX has also been in a callback pattern recently. The general performance of commodity sentiment during the day has further deepened the decline of PX. Currently, there is no obvious change in the PX supply - demand pattern. The supply remains at a high level, and the polyester load on the demand side still remains at a high level, providing support for PX demand. The short - term PX profitability can still be maintained, and the price will fluctuate [12] - **Outlook**: PX will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. The profit support will increase, and the PXN is expected to be consolidated in the range of [260, 300] [12] PTA - **View**: Upstream cost support is insufficient, prices follow the decline, and the basis is relatively strong [12] - **Main Logic**: The collapse of upstream cost support, the decline of international oil prices in a volatile manner, and the general market sentiment of chemicals have led to a significant decline in the price of PTA following the decline of PX. With the large decline of the upstream, the PTA spot processing fee has been passively repaired. The supply - demand pattern remains relatively tight in the short term, and the basis is relatively strong. The short - term price will mainly fluctuate following the cost [12] - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate and consolidate following the cost, the processing fee will remain within a certain range, and the expansion space is limited. In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long TA02 and shorting PF02. Go long on the TA05 contract at the range of 4,600 - 4,700 yuan [12] Pure Benzene - **View**: The price of pure benzene fluctuates between reality and expectations [12] - **Main Logic**: Recently, the price of pure benzene has been fluctuating, and the long - short game is centered around the reality and expectations of the fundamentals. In reality, a large number of imported pure benzene has arrived at ports recently, and port inventories have rapidly accumulated. There may be storage capacity pressure in the middle and late months. Downstream phenol is clearing inventories at the end of the year, and profits are deteriorating. The production cut of caprolactam has been implemented, and the pressure on pure benzene is still being realized. In terms of expectations, the fundamentals of pure benzene may improve marginally from the first quarter of 2026. Imports will shrink, and some styrene plants will resume production. The inflection point of pure benzene inventory is approaching. Recently, pay attention to the US - Venezuela situation, the Central Economic Work Conference, the realization of port inventory build - up, and the liquidity problem of styrene [12][14] Styrene - **View**: The cancellation of maintenance and the news of inventory overflow in South Korea lead to a weak and volatile styrene market [15] - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the styrene futures market mainly trades around the liquidity problem. After the destocking of styrene port inventories, the available circulation volume is not abundant, and the short - covering in the paper market has brought a relatively strong market. The liquidity problem may continue in December, supporting the futures market. Recently, after the increase in styrene prices, the profits of downstream PS and ABS have been compressed, and both are currently in a slight loss state, but no production cut has been heard yet. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2026, the pattern of pure benzene will improve quarter - on - quarter, supporting styrene. Styrene will enter the seasonal inventory build - up period with a relatively high inventory starting point, but the current raw material inventory of downstream enterprises is low. Pay attention to the restocking at the beginning of the year due to the improvement of market sentiment [15] - **Outlook**: In 2026Q1, pure benzene pattern improvement supports styrene, but high starting inventory and seasonal accumulation need attention. Downstream low raw material inventory may bring early - year restocking [15] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: Pay attention to whether the new supply reduction on the supply side can be realized [16] - **Main Logic**: The price of ethylene glycol has been in a downward trend in a volatile manner again today. The large arrival of goods at the main ports has led to continuous inventory build - up at ports, the spot circulation is abundant, coupled with the poor performance of upstream costs and the cold market sentiment, ethylene glycol has continuously hit new lows this year during the session. However, in the late session, due to the news of some new planned out - of - plan maintenance, the supply has become slightly loose, and some short - sellers have shifted their positions, resulting in a certain degree of stop - falling rebound in the price. In the short term, as the price has dropped to a low level, there is new supply reduction on the supply side, and the market sentiment can be moderately restored. In addition, as the delivery period approaches, the futures market will gradually limit positions. It is expected that ethylene glycol will be in a low - level volatile state in the short term, and pay attention to the changes of other plants in the future [16][17] - **Outlook**: The long - term inventory build - up pressure is large, and the price will maintain a wide - range volatile operation in the low - level range. Operate the EG reverse spread position in the range of [-75, -95] [19] Polyester Staple Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the cost of ethylene glycol, and the processing fee is under pressure [21] - **Main Logic**: The adjustment of upstream polyester raw material prices has led to a decline in the price of polyester staple fiber following the cost. The variables in the supply - demand pattern of polyester staple fiber itself are limited. The current price is relatively low, and there is still bottom support on the cost side in the short term. It is expected that under the game of multiple factors, the price of polyester staple fiber may be relatively resistant to decline in the near future [21][22] - **Outlook**: The price of polyester staple fiber will fluctuate following the upstream, the processing fee is expected to be compressed, and you can try to go long on TA and short on PF with a light position [22] Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: Yisheng lowers the basis, and the trading volume increases significantly [23] - **Main Logic**: The weak adjustment of upstream raw material prices has led to insufficient cost support for polyester bottle chips. Coupled with Yisheng's reduction of the basis during the session, the trading volume of the polyester bottle chip market has increased significantly during the day. It is expected that in the short term, the price will fluctuate following the upstream cost, and there is no obvious directional guidance [23] - **Outlook**: The absolute value will follow the fluctuations of raw materials, and the support below the processing fee will generally increase [24] Methanol - **View**: The expected high coastal unloading volume, and the short - term support of the inland supply - demand situation lead to a volatile and consolidating methanol market [26] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, methanol was generally weak. The mainstream intended price of methanol in northern Inner Mongolia was in the range of 1,960 - 2,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's average price. The inland market showed regional adjustments. In the North China region, the upstream supply was abundant, and there was still a demand for shipment, so enterprises actively reduced prices to promote sales. The downstream procurement in East China was relatively firm. On December 3, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.3494 million tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons (-1.03%) compared with the previous data. After the decline of the port spot price, the flow of goods from Jiangsu to southern Shandong has gradually increased, and the near - term basis along the coast has strengthened slightly. In the short term, the near - term market is still restricted by factors such as high inventory, concentrated import arrivals, and the expected shutdown of Ningbo MTO [26] - **Outlook**: Viewed as volatile and consolidating in the short term [26][27] Urea - **View**: The new order transactions have improved, and the market fluctuates and consolidates [27] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the daily output of urea on the supply side remained at around 200,000 tons, at a relatively high level. On the demand side, there is support from the progress of off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export containerization. After the decline of the spot price, the new order transactions have improved, but at this time, the cost support of coal is insufficient, and the market is in a stalemate [27] - **Outlook**: The daily output on the fundamental supply side is still high, and the demand is moderately weak. Currently, the main factors to consider are the resistance of the现货 market to high prices and the lack of strong fundamental support in the market, which suppress the upward movement of the market. If there is no effective positive support in the near future, the price may still decline slightly after the stalemate. Therefore, it is believed that urea will fluctuate and consolidate in a narrow range. Pay attention to the inventory reduction of enterprises, the progress of off - season storage, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants [27] LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The decline of oil prices leads to a weak and volatile LLDPE market [31] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the LLDPE futures contract was weak and volatile. First, oil prices declined within the range, the supply pressure continued to show, and the volatile pattern continued under the unclear geopolitical direction. Bloomberg survey data shows that OPEC's production decreased slightly by 10,000 barrels per day in November. After the significant slowdown of the net quota growth in the fourth quarter, the production trend is not obvious, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Russian oil prices are weakening, and floating storage is rising, resulting in a marginal decrease in effective supply. The long - short game continues, and the market is viewed as volatile. The weak coal price still drags down LLDPE. Second, the fundamental support of LLDPE itself is still limited. The upstream and middle - stream enterprises still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will still suppress the upward space of the price. In the short term, the profit of coal - based production has been repaired, the support of maintenance is limited, and the production pressure is still large under the increasing production capacity. Third, the short - term trading volume of downstream enterprises is cautiously expected, and the sustainability of the restocking demand driven by the low absolute price is limited. Currently, the overall demand for LLDPE is gradually entering the off - season, and the purchasing mentality is still cautious [31] - **Outlook**: Weak and volatile in the short term [31] PP - **View**: The short - term support of maintenance is still limited, and PP declines in a volatile manner [32] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the PP futures contract declined in a volatile manner. First, oil prices declined within the range, the supply pressure continued to show, and the volatile pattern continued under the unclear geopolitical direction. Bloomberg survey data shows that OPEC's production decreased slightly by 10,000 barrels per day in November. After the significant slowdown of the net quota growth in the fourth quarter, the production trend is not obvious, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Russian oil prices are weakening, and floating storage is rising, resulting in a marginal decrease in effective supply. The long - short game continues, and the market is viewed as volatile. Second, the weak coal price offsets the strength of propane, and the PDH profit is still under pressure in the short term. The valuation support of the gas - based production has increased, but the profit of coal - based refineries has been repaired under the weak coal price, and the overall increase in maintenance is still limited. Third, it is the off - season for PP downstream, and the purchasing mentality is cautious. The supply - demand pattern of PP is still under pressure [32] - **Outlook**: Weak and volatile in the short term, and the focus is still on maintenance [32][34] PL (Propylene) - **View**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, and PL fluctuates [32] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the PL futures contract fluctuated. On the spot side, the inventory of propylene enterprises was controllable, and the quotations remained