Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in its main brand's overseas market expansion, which is anticipated to exceed expectations [3] - The rapid opening of new stores by the subsidiary "Lucky Coffee" is expected to release scale advantages [3] - The company is recognized for its strong supply chain and store operation capabilities, alongside continuous product upgrades [3] Financial Performance - In 2025, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company are projected to be 33.6 billion and 5.9 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 35% and 33% [6] - For the second half of 2025, revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company are expected to be 18.7 billion and 3.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 32% and 25% [6] - The gross profit margin for 2025 and the second half of 2025 is projected to be 31.14% and 30.75%, showing a decline of 2.16 and 1.32 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The net profit margin for 2025 and the second half of 2025 is expected to be 17.54% and 17.09%, reflecting a decrease of 0.33 and 0.94 percentage points year-on-year [6] Store Expansion - As of the end of 2025, the total number of global stores reached 59,823, marking a year-on-year increase of 26% [2] - The company added a net of 13,344 stores throughout the year, with domestic and international contributions of 13,772 and -428 stores, respectively [2] - In the second half of 2025, the company added 7,075 new stores domestically, with a focus on lower-tier markets [2] Supply Chain and Management - The company has established a supply chain network with 28 warehouses, covering 33 provinces and 300 cities in China, and has set up localized warehousing and distribution networks in 8 countries overseas [2] - The management team has been strengthened, with the founder taking on the role of co-chairman and the former CFO becoming the new CEO [2]

Core Viewpoint - Western Securities upgraded the rating of Mixue Group (02097) to "Buy," anticipating that the company's overseas market expansion will exceed expectations and that Lucky Coffee's rapid store openings will leverage scale advantages [1] Group 1: Overseas Market Expansion - Mixue is accelerating its overseas expansion, with store performance exceeding expectations. In December 2025, Mixue opened three stores in the U.S., entering key cities like Los Angeles and New York [1] - The U.S. stores feature additional high-sweetness options and plant-based milk, catering to local dietary preferences and enhancing repurchase rates. Prices for main products are controlled between $1.99 and $3.99, with a maximum of $5 [1] - Increased marketing efforts are being made to strengthen brand recognition, including advertising in core business districts and enhanced social media exposure [1] Group 2: International Recognition and Franchise Opportunities - Successful expansion in the U.S. market will help Mixue solidify its international recognition and facilitate expansion into other countries. In mid-November 2025, Mixue will open a dedicated overseas franchise channel for 16 countries and regions [2] - Southeast Asia is identified as a key area for store openings, with Vietnam showing strong demand for cold beverages and significant potential for brand chain development. The total cost for a franchise store in Vietnam is approximately 10 billion VND, equivalent to 265,000 RMB [2] - Other potential markets include Japan, South Korea, Australia, and South America. In May 2025, Mixue signed a procurement order for 4 billion coffee beans with Brazil, with plans to start building a supply chain factory [2] Group 3: Lucky Coffee's Growth - Lucky Coffee has surpassed 10,000 stores as of December 2025 and has announced flagship store franchise standards, targeting core business districts in first-tier or provincial capital cities [3] - The flagship stores will offer a variety of products, including regular and specialty drinks, ice cream, desserts, and brand-related items, with store sizes exceeding 100 square meters to create a large store image [3] - The second growth curve for Lucky Coffee continues to gain momentum [3]