Core Viewpoint - The decline in shares of Mixue Group is primarily attributed to UBS downgrading the company's rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" and lowering the target price from HKD 490 to HKD 468 [3][7]. Company Performance - As of January 28, Mixue Group's shares fell over 10%, reaching a low of HKD 396 during trading [1]. - The company faces risks of declining gross margins due to rising raw material costs, particularly for key ingredients like lemons, a reduction in delivery subsidies, and intensified industry competition [4][9]. Market Outlook - Despite the downgrade by UBS, domestic institutions remain optimistic about Mixue Group's growth prospects. West Securities noted that the company is accelerating its overseas expansion, with store performance exceeding expectations [4][10]. - Mixue Group plans to open three new stores in the U.S. by December 2025, targeting major cities like Los Angeles and New York. The menu will include high-sweetness options and plant-based milk to cater to local tastes [4][10]. International Expansion - The company is set to open an exclusive overseas franchise channel in November 2025, targeting 16 countries and regions, with Southeast Asia identified as a key area for expansion [5][10]. - In Vietnam, the total cost for a franchise store is approximately 10 billion VND, equivalent to 265,000 RMB, leveraging local supply chains and standardized support systems [5][10]. - Mixue Group has signed a procurement order for 4 billion coffee beans with Brazil, with plans to establish a supply chain factory, aiming to open its first store in São Paulo by March 2026 [5][10]. Financial Projections - West Securities has raised its profit forecasts for Mixue Group, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to reach 6.1 billion, 7 billion, and 8.1 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [5][10]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 25, 22, and 19 times for the years 2025 to 2027, with a "Buy" rating assigned [5][10].

该行认为美国市场的成功开拓利于蜜雪巩固国际认知，同时有效推动其他国家拓展，2025年11月中旬蜜 雪开放海外加盟专属通道，开放海外16个国家与地区招商业务;其中：1)东南亚地区为蜜雪核心加密开 店区域，以越南为例，冷饮刚需性强且品牌连锁化率提升空间大，蜜雪加盟门店总费用约10亿越南盾即 26.5万元人民币，凭借本地供应链仓配与标准化加盟支持体系，叠加统一品牌输出，具备稳定品质与高 效管理优势。2)日韩、澳洲、南美等均为潜在市场，2025年5月蜜雪与巴西签署40亿咖啡豆等采购订 单，且预计启动供应链工厂建设;首店将于2026年3月开在圣保罗购物中心。 西部证券（002673）发布研报称，上调蜜雪集团(02097)至"买入"评级。主品牌海外市场开拓预计超预 期。幸运咖加速开店释放规模优势。该行看好公司极致性价比背后的供应链与门店运营能力，且品牌效 应持续释放，上调公司盈利预测，预计25-27年归母净利润分别为61/70/81亿元，目前股价对应公司PE 为25/22/19X。 西部证券主要观点如下： 蜜雪海外加速开拓，门店表现超预期 2025年12月蜜雪冰城在美国连开3家门店，进入洛杉矶和纽约两座核心城市。菜单设置 ...

Core Viewpoint - Western Securities upgraded the rating of Mixue Group (02097) to "Buy," anticipating that the company's overseas market expansion will exceed expectations and that Lucky Coffee's rapid store openings will leverage scale advantages [1] Group 1: Overseas Market Expansion - Mixue is accelerating its overseas expansion, with store performance exceeding expectations. In December 2025, Mixue opened three stores in the U.S., entering key cities like Los Angeles and New York [1] - The U.S. stores feature additional high-sweetness options and plant-based milk, catering to local dietary preferences and enhancing repurchase rates. Prices for main products are controlled between $1.99 and $3.99, with a maximum of $5 [1] - Increased marketing efforts are being made to strengthen brand recognition, including advertising in core business districts and enhanced social media exposure [1] Group 2: International Recognition and Franchise Opportunities - Successful expansion in the U.S. market will help Mixue solidify its international recognition and facilitate expansion into other countries. In mid-November 2025, Mixue will open a dedicated overseas franchise channel for 16 countries and regions [2] - Southeast Asia is identified as a key area for store openings, with Vietnam showing strong demand for cold beverages and significant potential for brand chain development. The total cost for a franchise store in Vietnam is approximately 10 billion VND, equivalent to 265,000 RMB [2] - Other potential markets include Japan, South Korea, Australia, and South America. In May 2025, Mixue signed a procurement order for 4 billion coffee beans with Brazil, with plans to start building a supply chain factory [2] Group 3: Lucky Coffee's Growth - Lucky Coffee has surpassed 10,000 stores as of December 2025 and has announced flagship store franchise standards, targeting core business districts in first-tier or provincial capital cities [3] - The flagship stores will offer a variety of products, including regular and specialty drinks, ice cream, desserts, and brand-related items, with store sizes exceeding 100 square meters to create a large store image [3] - The second growth curve for Lucky Coffee continues to gain momentum [3]

Core Insights - Mixue Ice Cream & Tea has successfully opened its first three stores in the United States within six days, marking a significant expansion from the West Coast in Los Angeles to the East Coast in New York [1][3][4] Store Openings - The first store opened on December 20, 2025, in Hollywood, Los Angeles, located opposite the famous Chinese Theatre [4] - On December 25, 2025, two additional stores opened in New York City, situated on 8th Avenue and Broadway, both in high-traffic areas [6][9] - The geographical spread of the stores is notable, covering approximately 4,000 kilometers between Los Angeles and New York, indicating a strategic approach to market penetration [9] Consumer Response - There has been a strong consumer interest, with long queues reported at the Hollywood store even before its official opening, and similar enthusiasm observed in New York [11][13] - Social media discussions about Mixue's U.S. launch have gained traction, with consumers expressing desires for further expansion into other countries [11][13] Product Localization - Mixue has tailored its menu for the U.S. market, allowing for sweetness levels up to 200%, and featuring soft serve ice cream more prominently than tea [3][19] - The menu includes options for plant-based milk, catering to health-conscious consumers and those with lactose intolerance [19][21] - Prices are set competitively, with items like soft serve starting at $1.19, which is lower than many local competitors [22][25] Marketing Strategies - The brand has employed various promotional activities, including advertising in Times Square and offering free ice cream for social media engagement [13] - The theme song has been localized to resonate better with American consumers, reflecting a broader trend of adapting branding for different markets [16][27] Future Plans - Mixue has plans for further expansion in the U.S., with a third New York location set to open soon, indicating a commitment to establishing a strong presence in the market [15][17]

Core Viewpoint - The rising prices of street food have sparked discussions on social media, with many consumers expressing that they can no longer afford street food, which is often more expensive than meals at local restaurants [2][6]. Group 1: Consumer Sentiment - Consumers are increasingly vocal about the high prices of street food, with social media discussions highlighting that street food can be more expensive than restaurant meals [2][6]. - A video by a social media influencer showcased that certain street food items, such as a portion of beef offal, cost 41 yuan, while a similar dish at a chain restaurant was only 35.5 yuan, indicating a significant price discrepancy [3]. Group 2: Vendor Perspectives - Street food vendors express frustration over rising costs and declining customer traffic, leading to a cycle where they must increase prices to cover expenses, which in turn drives away more customers [5][6]. - Vendors report that their profit margins are squeezed by high costs associated with stall fees and operational expenses, with some stating that they are considering leaving the business due to insufficient earnings [5][6]. Group 3: Cost Structure - The perception that street food is cheaper is challenged by the reality of various costs, including stall fees, utilities, and the quality of ingredients used, which have all increased [8][9]. - For instance, a vendor in Foshan mentioned that stall fees can reach up to 248 yuan per night, significantly impacting their pricing strategy [9]. - Vendors are also investing in higher quality ingredients to differentiate their offerings, which further increases their operational costs [10][12]. Group 4: Market Trends - The shift in vendor mentality from basic survival to adopting a "celebrity economy" approach has led to higher prices, as vendors aim to create visually appealing products and unique offerings [13]. - Examples include gourmet versions of traditional street food, such as a simple sweet potato being sold for 20-30 yuan due to added premium ingredients and presentation [13].

Core Insights - The summer consumption trends indicate a significant rise in new economic activities driven by various consumer demands, particularly in the areas of "cooling economy," "night economy," and "stay-at-home economy" [1][2] Group 1: Cooling Economy - The "cooling economy" is a prominent consumption trend, with ice cream machine orders increasing by 879% and slush machines by 98% since July [1][4] - Sales of small appliances like portable fans and air coolers have surged over 200%, indicating a strong demand for cooling products in both home and mobile scenarios [1] - DIY ice drink combinations are gaining popularity, with the growth rate of "alcohol + ice + beverage" combinations surpassing that of alcohol alone [1] Group 2: Stay-at-Home Economy - The stay-at-home economy reflects deep development in household consumption, with fresh-cut rose orders increasing by 172% and scented candle orders by 344% month-on-month [1][6] - There is a notable rise in sales of children's stationery, pet supplies, home decor, outdoor sports, apparel, and beauty products, indicating a broadening of consumer interests [1] - High-frequency essential items like fresh fruits, packaged snacks, and emergency kitchen supplies are experiencing continuous growth, catering to consumer needs for convenience and immediacy [1] Group 3: Night Economy - The night economy shows significant potential, with night orders in 127 cities increasing by over 100%, particularly in central and western regions [2][3] - Weekend night orders for camping sites have surged by 230%, and orders from parks and recreational areas have also seen substantial growth [2][5] - Diverse night-time consumption categories are emerging, with local delicacies and late-night snacks gaining popularity, indicating a shift from traditional "eating and drinking" to a broader range of products [2] Group 4: Market Opportunities - The overall summer consumption trends highlight continuous upgrades in consumer demand across various scenarios, presenting new growth opportunities for businesses [2] - Industry experts emphasize the importance of quickly capturing and responding to consumer trends to gain a competitive edge in the evolving market landscape [2]