Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards localized production due to geopolitical risks and supply chain diversification, with the U.S. initiating investigations into tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals to assess national security risks [2][3][7]. Group 1: Supply Chain and Geopolitical Risks - The semiconductor supply chain is complex and cannot be independently managed by any single country, leading to increased unpredictability in the industry [2][3]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce has begun investigations into the semiconductor supply chain, focusing on potential national security risks associated with imports [2][3]. - The investigation will evaluate reliance on specific countries and may recommend corrective measures, including tariffs or import quotas, within 270 days [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Production - The semiconductor industry is facing a turning point, with countries pushing for localized production to ensure economic security, which may lead to potential oversupply risks [3][7]. - The U.S. is projected to have semiconductor sales of $60.7 billion in 2024, accounting for 35% of the global market, while its production capacity is only about 10% of the global total [5][6]. - Global plans for new semiconductor factories are set to increase by over 30% from 2021-2023 to 2025-2027, driven by geopolitical tensions and local support for the industry [7]. Group 3: Company Strategies and Investments - Companies like TSMC and Samsung are significantly impacted by tariffs and are investing in U.S. operations, although assembly processes remain in Asia [5][6]. - NVIDIA has announced plans for domestic production of its AI semiconductor "Blackwell" and AI servers in the U.S., with a potential production scale of up to $500 billion over the next four years [5][6]. - The cost of producing advanced semiconductors in the U.S. is approximately 10% higher than in Taiwan, raising concerns about the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing if tariffs are imposed on essential manufacturing equipment [6]. Group 4: Market Challenges - The global economic slowdown is negatively affecting sales of personal computers, smartphones, and electric vehicles, which could lead to an oversupply in the semiconductor market if production increases without corresponding demand [8].

由于供应链进一步分散，全球各地纷纷兴建半导体工厂 半导体产业是一个任何单一国家都无法独立完成的复杂供应链体系。但包括美国在内的各国，推动本土 化生产。"由于政治和地缘政治风险，供应链的分散化趋势正在加剧，整个行业已经进入一个不可预测 的时代"…… 美国商务部日前宣布已开始对半导体和药品进行引入关税前的调查。调查对象包括智能手机等电子设备 在内的半导体供应链，目的是评估是否存在国家安全方面的隐患。 该通知已通过政府公报发出。根据美国《贸易扩展法》第232条规定，总统有权以国家安全为由对进口 实施限制，相关调查结果将在270天内向总统报告。 调查内容包括进口是否过度依赖特定国家等问题，并将在必要时建议采取包括关税或进口配额在内的纠 正措施。最终由总统做出判断。 此次调查的对象除了半导体本身，还包括日本和荷兰在其中具有优势的半导体制造设备、半导体基板 等"衍生产品"，以及内含半导体的"下游产品"。不过，并未具体列出如智能手机等具体产品名称。 在对医药品的调查中，原材料也被纳入范围。美国前总统特朗普于4月14日向媒体表示："关税设得越 高，他们就会越快来到美国"，表现出希望尽早启动关税措施的意愿。 尽管尚未明确任何一 ...