供应链去中心化支撑需求、运力结构性短缺利好亚洲支线市场。受益于区域经济发展、RCEP 协定深化 成员国贸易协同及产业链向东南亚、拉美等第三国/地区转移等多重利好，非干线贸易增速表现突出， 亚洲区域内海运贸易需求有望持续增长。此外，集运大小船型运力增速出现结构性分化，大量新造船订 单主要集中在8k+TEU船型，3kTEU 以下小型船舶受制于新船有限与船龄有限，其2026/27 年运力增速 预计仅为+0.5%/-0.7%。公司从2020 年以来，接连订造新船，增强船队竞争优势。公司在2025 年多次下 单新造船，使公司手持订单增至14 艘，总计2.88 万TEU，占公司运营船队的15.3%，保证了公司船队与 业务规模的未来成长性。 公司特别派息凸显红利属性。根据2025 年12 月18 日公告，公司宣派特别股息每股0.70 港元（相当于每 股0.09 美元），继2024 年之后连续第二年特别派息。公司2021 年股息支付率达94.89%后，2022/23 年 保持在71%左右，2024 年在特别分红支持下提升至85.35%。 盈利预测与评级：假设红海绕行持续，预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为12.0 ...

证券研究报告 交通运输 | 航运港口 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 29 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 33.00/15.70 风险提示。美国关税政策变化；经济增长不及预期；红海复航；美国对航运港口相 关政策的变化；地缘政治风险。 | 资产负债率（%） | 22.55 | 盈利预测与估值（美元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | | 营业收入（百万美元） | 2,429 | 3,05 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of USD 1.665 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.0%. The gross profit reached USD 669 million, up 66.3%, with the gross margin increasing from 31.0% to 40.2%. The net profit was USD 633 million, reflecting a 79.5% increase year-on-year, and earnings per share rose by 84.6% to USD 0.24 [8] - The company has established a differentiated advantage through a high-density, high-frequency point-to-point direct shipping network, which continues to drive performance growth. The demand for transshipment trade has remained strong due to global trade conflicts, supporting high container trade demand in the Asian region [8] - The company benefits from a structural shortage in shipping capacity, which is favorable for the Asian feeder market. The demand for maritime trade in the Asian region is expected to continue growing due to regional economic development and the RCEP agreement [8] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, with an interim dividend of HKD 1.30 per share, equivalent to USD 0.17, and a dividend rate of 70.8%, indicating strong dividend characteristics [8] - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are USD 1.124 billion, USD 1.089 billion, and USD 1.076 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 9.34%, -3.17%, and -1.15%. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 8.24, 8.51, and 8.61 [8] Financial Summary - The company's total market capitalization is approximately HKD 72.47 billion, with a closing price of HKD 26.84. The highest and lowest prices over the past year were HKD 27.96 and HKD 15.70, respectively [4] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio stands at 22.55% [4] - The revenue forecast for 2025 is USD 3.317 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.48% [9]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the United States has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, which includes a minimum 20% tariff on all Vietnamese exports to the U.S. and a commitment from the U.S. to fully open its market to Vietnam [1][3] - Vietnam is the eighth largest trading partner of the U.S., with a trade surplus exceeding $120 billion in 2024, making it the fourth largest economy with a trade surplus with the U.S. [3] - Approximately 60% of American companies operating in Vietnam support the trade agreement, while 30% express concerns about the redefinition of "transshipment trade," which could lead to increased tariffs on goods processed in Vietnam but originally produced in China [3][6] Group 2 - Cambodia has also reached a tariff agreement with the U.S., becoming the second Southeast Asian country to do so after Vietnam, although specific details of the agreement remain unclear [4][6] - The agreements with Vietnam and Cambodia reflect a pragmatic strategy for these developing countries to negotiate favorable international cooperation conditions amid the complex global economic environment [8] - The U.S. maintains a dominant position in the global economic landscape, making it challenging for smaller countries to confront it directly, thus leading to diplomatic negotiations as a rational decision to protect national economic interests [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the market [6][66]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the Asian intra-regional shipping market, showcasing a robust and resilient profitability across economic cycles. Its operational model emphasizes high-frequency logistics, which provides a competitive edge [10][66]. - The company has maintained a strong dividend policy, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 70% over the past eight years, reaching 84.91% in 2024, amounting to a total cash dividend of 6.25 billion [10][46]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the company's stock is HKD 25.25, with a one-year high of HKD 25.80 and a low of HKD 15.70. The total market capitalization stands at HKD 68,174.70 million, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 24.28% [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: USD 2,429 million in 2023, USD 3,058 million in 2024, and expected to reach USD 3,264 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.72% [6][64]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be USD 531 million in 2023, USD 1,028 million in 2024, and USD 1,025 million in 2025, reflecting a slight decline of 0.29% year-on-year [6][64]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the upcoming years are projected at 8.57 for 2025, 8.52 for 2026, and 8.20 for 2027 [6][66]. Business Model and Competitive Advantage - The company operates a comprehensive logistics network that integrates both maritime and land logistics, with a fleet of 114 vessels, including 100 owned ships, providing a total capacity of 180,255 TEU [7][15]. - The operational model focuses on point-to-point direct shipping services, enhancing flexibility and efficiency in logistics operations across 78 trade routes covering 81 major ports [7][20]. Dividend Policy and Shareholder Returns - The company has demonstrated a consistent dividend payout history since its listing in 2010, with a notable dividend yield of approximately 10% expected over the next three years [10][46]. Market Outlook - The intra-Asian shipping market is anticipated to remain resilient, driven by the ongoing recovery in the container shipping industry and stable trade volumes. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends due to its strategic operational model and regional focus [51][56].