智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，顺应新消费趋势，挖掘供给升级机会。该行认为2026年大众 品板块有以下投资主线：1)产品及服务的高质价比改造，既包括传统线下门店业态的提质与折扣化改 造，也包括厂商推出品质更优或能彰显个性、提升情绪价值的差异化产品;2)渗透率持续提升的高景气 品种，具备健康属性的品种可在长期持续替代相近品类;3)前期受损较重行业的预期反转，包括酒水、 餐饮行业及牧业;4)个股逻辑主导下业绩确定性较强的标的;5)高股息或高综合股东回报标的。 国信证券主要观点如下： 回顾2025年：内需相对疲弱，行业整体降速 2025年前三季度中国城镇居民人均可支配收入同比增速4.4%，增幅放缓，消费信心未有明显修复，年 中限酒条例亦形成短期扰动。受此影响，2025年食品饮料板块继续表现弱势，2025年年初以来，食品饮 料板块下跌5.3%，跑输沪深300指数19.4个百分点。子板块中，软饮料行业维持相对较高的景气度，零 食行业呈现分化表现，量贩零食龙头继续开店、魔芋零食放量形成局部亮点，相关个股表现良好。 展望2026年：结构性机会仍存，渠道分化、供给升级 在需求总量温和复苏的基本假设下，该行判断大众品仍 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [1][4][5] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a transformation driven by diverse consumer demands and supply upgrades, with structural opportunities expected to persist in 2026 despite a moderate recovery in overall demand [2][29] - The report highlights the importance of adapting to new retail channels and consumer preferences, emphasizing the need for product differentiation and quality enhancement [2][29] Summary by Sections Review of 2025 - The overall industry performance was weak, with a decline of 5.3% in the food and beverage sector, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 19.4 percentage points [1][25] - Consumer confidence remained low, with urban residents' disposable income growth slowing to 4.4% year-on-year [1][12] - The soft drink sector maintained relative strength, while the snack industry showed mixed results, with leading companies continuing to expand [1][20] Outlook for 2026 - Structural opportunities are anticipated, with a focus on channel diversification and supply upgrades [2][29] - The report predicts a shift in consumer preferences towards high-quality, reasonably priced products, with an emphasis on additional value attributes such as convenience and health [2][29] - The beverage sector is expected to benefit from the development of non-traditional channels and the introduction of differentiated products [33][47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that enhance product quality and service, such as Baba Foods and Wanchen Group [3][4] - It highlights high-growth categories with health attributes, recommending companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [3][4] - The report also identifies companies with strong performance recovery potential, such as Anjijia Foods and Yihai International [3][4] Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Companies such as Yanjing Beer, Weilong Delicious, and Yili Group are rated as "Outperform" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [4][5] - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [4][5]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the food and beverage industry experienced a slowdown in 2025, with a 5.3% decline in the sector, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 19.4 percentage points [1][25] - The soft drink sector maintained relative strength, while the snack industry showed mixed performance, with leading companies continuing to expand [1][20] - Consumer confidence remained low, with the disposable income growth rate for urban residents at 4.4% year-on-year, reflecting weak internal demand [12][20] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the report identifies structural opportunities in the consumer goods sector, driven by channel differentiation and supply upgrades [2][29] - The report emphasizes the need for consumer goods companies to adapt to new retail channels and enhance product differentiation to meet evolving consumer preferences [2][29] - The anticipated recovery in consumer confidence and macroeconomic policies is expected to shift consumer focus from extreme price competition to a preference for quality and added value [2][29] Group 3 - Investment recommendations for 2026 include focusing on high-quality and differentiated products, with specific companies highlighted such as Babi Foods and Wanchen Group [3][4] - The report suggests that companies with strong performance recovery expectations, such as Anjui Foods and Yihai International, should be considered for investment [3][4] - High dividend or comprehensive shareholder return stocks, such as Yili Group, are also recommended for investors [3][4] Group 4 - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for companies like Yanjing Beer and Nongfu Spring [4][5] - The food and beverage sector's overall revenue and profit growth rates have weakened, with the industry experiencing a cumulative revenue growth of only 0.3% and a profit decline of 4.5% in the first three quarters of 2025 [20][22] - The snack sector's revenue growth was primarily driven by the expansion of Wanchen Group, while other segments faced challenges [20][22]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformation of the liquor industry, emphasizing how Jiujiang Shuangzheng has successfully implemented a "supply upgrade" revolution in the rice-flavored liquor sector, focusing on quality over scale expansion [1]. Group 1: Traditional Craftsmanship - Jiujiang Shuangzheng's "double distillation" technique, established in 1821, exemplifies the wisdom of Lingnan artisans, significantly reducing impurities in the liquor to one-third of national standards through precise distillation and traditional aging methods [3]. - The company maintains traditional practices such as manual fermentation and aging in ceramic jars, ensuring a balanced flavor profile with a rigorous quality control process [3]. - In 2024, Jiujiang Shuangzheng became the first rice-flavored brand in Guangdong to receive certification for "pure grain solid-state fermented liquor," selecting premium Northeast pearl rice and employing advanced milling techniques to eliminate off-flavors [3]. Group 2: Low-Alcohol Revolution - Since 2013, Jiujiang Shuangzheng has invested over 100 million yuan in developing a low-alcohol system, resulting in 10 patents and 23 inventions that significantly reduce harmful substances in the liquor [5]. - The core model of "pure, three lows, one high, and one return acid" has led to a 60% reduction in aldehyde content and a 55% decrease in fusel oil, with clinical trials showing a 41% reduction in peak blood alcohol concentration [5]. - The use of nano-encapsulation technology enhances the release of detoxifying agents, improving the activity of acetaldehyde dehydrogenase by 3.2 times, showcasing a scientific approach to improving consumer experience [5]. Group 3: Supply Upgrade Logic - Jiujiang Shuangzheng exemplifies the principle of "supply creates demand," offering a diverse product range that spans from 20 yuan to 1,000 yuan, effectively reshaping the value perception of rice-flavored liquor [7]. - The brand's involvement in the 2024 Dragon Boat Festival, where its team won championships, further integrated brand culture into sports, marking a shift from product supply to cultural supply [7]. - The company's approach addresses consumer pain points, providing health solutions through low-alcohol technology, ensuring price stability through green manufacturing, and exploring high-end markets with premium offerings [7]. Group 4: Industry Impact - In the vast trillion-yuan liquor market, Jiujiang Shuangzheng's "supply revolution" demonstrates that a true benchmark brand can preserve traditional craftsmanship while leveraging technological advancements, creating a path of evolution that resonates through time [9].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the current issue in the Chinese economy is not a lack of consumer demand but rather a deficiency in quality supply [2][6][4] - It highlights the importance of supply-side innovation and the role of e-commerce platforms in facilitating this transformation [2][6][15] Group 1: Consumer Demand and Supply - There is a prevailing misconception that economic downturns lead to reduced consumer spending; however, the reality is that consumers are willing to spend when quality products are available [3][4] - Recent data shows significant growth in retail sales across various sectors, indicating robust consumer demand when matched with good supply [4][6] - E-commerce platforms are actively implementing strategies to stimulate demand by enhancing supply quality, thereby driving economic growth [6][15] Group 2: Supply-Side Innovation - The article discusses innovative practices in agriculture and manufacturing, such as the integration of e-commerce standards in traditional supply chains [2][4] - Examples include a pencil factory that has successfully expanded its market reach through process upgrades and cost reductions, demonstrating the potential of supply-side innovation [2][4] - The concept of "good products can be affordable" is highlighted, showcasing that quality does not necessarily equate to high prices, as seen in various successful brands [7][10] Group 3: E-commerce Platforms' Role - Major e-commerce platforms like Alibaba, JD, Pinduoduo, and Douyin are launching initiatives to support local industries and enhance product quality [6][11] - Pinduoduo's "100 billion support plan" aims to empower businesses willing to innovate and meet consumer demands, thereby fostering a more competitive market [10][11] - The article illustrates how platforms are leveraging technology and efficient logistics to connect producers directly with consumers, reducing costs and improving product freshness [15][17] Group 4: Efficiency and Cost Reduction - The emergence of new logistics models, such as container shipping, has significantly improved efficiency and reduced costs, which can be applied to e-commerce [15][17] - E-commerce platforms are focusing on enhancing operational efficiency to benefit both consumers and suppliers, creating a win-win situation [15][17] - The article concludes that the transformation of supply-side practices is essential for unlocking consumer potential and driving economic growth in China [15]

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Consumption Boost Special Action Plan" marks the beginning of a significant initiative aimed at restoring consumer confidence for 1.4 billion people in China, focusing on trust rebuilding, supply upgrades, and institutional innovation [1] Group 1: Trust Breakthrough - The market share of domestic milk powder has increased from less than 30% a decade ago to over 68% today, reflecting a significant transformation in Chinese manufacturing [2] - The shift in consumer sentiment towards domestic brands is supported by quality data, with domestic milk powder's bacterial count being only 1/10 of the EU standard and protein content exceeding it by 20% [2] - Government-issued consumption vouchers are seen as a means to rebuild market trust through "government credit endorsement" [2] Group 2: Supply Breakthrough - Only 20% of Chinese consumers meet the recommended daily milk intake, indicating a significant gap in milk product consumption habits among over 1 billion people [3] - Innovations such as A2 protein milk powder and zero-sugar yogurt by Junlebao are aimed at tapping into this potential market [3] - Local initiatives like "night economy" and "concert economy" in Hunan and Jiangsu are designed to create new consumer demand [3] Group 3: Institutional Breakthrough - 62% of consumers believe that distinguishing product quality is too costly, highlighting a barrier to consumer confidence [9] - Policies aimed at increasing income and reducing burdens, such as dynamic adjustments to minimum wages and skill training subsidies, are being implemented [9] - The central bank is increasing consumer loan availability and trialing childcare subsidies to alleviate family financial burdens [11]