供需弱现实
Search documents
宝城期货甲醇早报-20251027
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 02:14
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intraday view of methanol is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is weakly volatile, with a reference view of strong operation[5]. - Due to geopolitical factors such as Trump canceling the US - Russia leaders' meeting and US sanctions on Russian oil producers, along with South American geopolitical risks, crude oil futures prices have gained premium support. There is a game between strong geopolitical expectations and weak supply - demand realities in the crude oil market. With positive signals from Sino - US economic and trade talks, the macro - sentiment has improved. The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and stable trend on Monday[5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol Price and Market Conditions - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a narrow - range consolidation in the night session on Friday, with the futures price slightly rebounding by 0.04% to 2279 yuan/ton[5]. Market Driving Factors - Geopolitical factors, including Trump canceling the US - Russia leaders' meeting, US sanctions on Russian oil producers, and South American geopolitical risks, have led to a premium in crude oil prices. However, the crude oil market still faces a weak supply - demand reality, with increased supply surplus pressure and a seasonal off - peak in demand, leading to an inventory accumulation cycle[5]. - Positive signals from Sino - US economic and trade talks have improved the macro - sentiment[5].
宝城期货原油早报-20251024
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil 2512 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term view of oscillation, a medium - term view of oscillation and weakening, and an intraday view of oscillation and strengthening [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Price Movement and Reference Views - The opening price and closing price calculation methods for varieties with and without night trading are specified [2] - Criteria for defining rising, falling, oscillating strongly, and oscillating weakly are provided [3] - Oscillation strength or weakness is only applicable to intraday views, not short - term and medium - term views [4] - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is oscillating weakly, and the reference view is strongly running. The 2512 contract of domestic crude oil futures closed up 3.48% to 469.8 yuan/barrel on Thursday night and is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Friday [5] 3.2 Driving Logic - Geopolitical premiums are prominent as the US President Trump cancelled the recent meeting plan between the US and Russian leaders, the US imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers, and South American geopolitical risks emerged. The supply - side expectations are also disturbed, giving support to the prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures [5] - The current supply - demand situation of the crude oil market is weak. Supply surplus pressure is increasing, demand has entered a seasonal off - peak, and the crude oil inventory accumulation cycle has arrived [5]