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【建筑建材】政策信号扭转预期,重点关注光伏玻璃、浮法玻璃、水泥、碳纤维行业——中央财经委提出“治理反内卷”精神学习(孙伟风)
光大证券研究· 2025-07-04 14:17
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent policy signals from the Chinese government aimed at addressing issues of low-price competition and promoting high-quality development in various industries, particularly focusing on the construction materials sector and the photovoltaic industry [2][3]. Policy Signals and Market Reactions - The meeting chaired by Xi Jinping emphasized the need to advance the construction of a unified national market and to guide enterprises in improving product quality while phasing out outdated production capacity [2]. - Following the meeting, sectors such as steel, coal, and building materials saw significant gains, indicating a reallocation of funds from previously hot sectors to lower-performing cyclical sectors [3]. Focus on Specific Industries - The article highlights the photovoltaic industry as a key area for potential supply-side reforms due to severe overcapacity and widespread losses across the entire industry chain [3]. - In the construction materials sector, the profitability ranking from weakest to strongest is as follows: carbon fiber (significant losses), photovoltaic glass (losses), float glass (large industry losses, with leading companies barely profitable), cement (some companies in loss), and fiberglass (most companies profitable) [4]. Industry-Specific Insights - Photovoltaic glass prices have reached historical lows, with current prices for 2.0mm single-coated glass ranging from 10.5 to 12 RMB per square meter, and the average net profit in the industry is reported at -362 RMB per ton [4]. - The float glass industry is experiencing a majority of production lines operating at a loss, with specific production costs reported for different fuel types, indicating a challenging profitability environment [5]. - The carbon fiber industry has been in a negative profit situation for nearly two years, with an average gross profit of -8,543 RMB per ton as of late June [6]. Conclusion - The article suggests that the government's clear policy direction may lead to a series of supply-side reforms, potentially reversing supply-demand dynamics and improving product prices and corporate profitability in the affected sectors [3].