| 贵金属日评20250826:特朗普解除美联储官员库克职务,特朗普因数字服务法或制裁欧盟 | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-25 | 2025-08-22 | 2025-08-19 | 收盘价 | 779.18 | 5. 78 | 4.12 | 773. 40 | 775. 06 | | | | | | | | 成交量 | 226253.00 | 139379.00 | 104, 578. 00 | 121675.00 | 86, 874. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 180151.00 | 181769.00 | 191435.00 | -1, 618. 00 | -11, 284. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 37455.00 | 36333.00 | 37515.00 | 60. 00 | 1,182.00 | 上海黄 ...

| m | 72 88 11 1 | 贵金属日评20250818: 美国8月消费者通胀预期反弹,欧盟推美俄乌三方会晤促和平协议 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-08-15 | 2025-08-14 | 2025-08-11 | 收盘价 | 775. 80 | 778. 70 | 779. 48 | -2. 90 | -3. 68 | | | | | 成交重 | 11, 603. 00 | 160609.00 | 278074.00 | -117, 465. 00 | 149006.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 199577.00 | -1, 922. 00 | 197655.00 | 211644.00 | -13, 989.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 36345.00 | 0. 00 | 300. 00 | 36345.00 ...

◎记者 陈佳怡 从关税风险重燃，到白宫紧急出面"澄清"，国际金价近期"上蹿下跳"。 随后，美国白宫表示将澄清关于金条关税的"错误信息"。市场情绪随之平复，纽约商品交易所黄金期货 价格8月11日出现超过2%的跌幅。 近期黄金价格的波动表明市场参与者对于任何消息都极其敏感，黄金市场仍面临诸多变数。展望后市， 受访人士认为，短期看，国际金价整体处于高位震荡态势。放眼长远，美联储降息预期、地缘政治风险 以及全球央行购金等因素仍有望支撑金价震荡上行。 金价走势跌宕起伏 近期，一则关税"乌龙"消息在黄金市场激起千层浪，金价走势随之跌宕起伏。 在美国开始对从瑞士进口的产品征收39%的关税后，英国《金融时报》8月8日报道称，美国海关与边境 保护局7月31日发往瑞士某精炼厂的裁定函中明确，1公斤和100盎司的金条应归类于一个需缴纳更高税 额的关税编码之下。市场分析认为，这意味着美国将对进口的1公斤和100盎司金条加征关税。 这一消息打得市场措手不及。瑞士是全球最大的黄金精炼中心，每年精炼全球50%至70%的黄金，在全 球黄金市场中的地位举足轻重。据了解，全球黄金贸易通常遵循着"三角模式"：大型金条在伦敦和纽约 之间往返运输，途 ...

紫金黄金国际招股说明书拆解 紫气东来，金藏锋芒 2025 年 08 月 13 日 ➢ 公司是紫金矿业的所有黄金矿山（除中国之外）整合而成的全球领先黄金开 采公司。公司控股股东为紫金矿业，实际控制人为上杭县财政局。公司是全球黄 金开采行业增速最快的公司之一。公司从 2007 年收购塔吉克斯坦吉劳/塔罗金 矿起步，截至 2024 年底，公司的黄金储量以及 2024 年的黄金产量分别位居全 球第九和第十一。2022-2024 年公司归母净利润的复合年增长率为 61.9%。 ➢ 横向对比而言，公司是高成长黄金企业，成本管理优异。一方面，公司矿产 金体量在一线黄金企业中排名靠后，过去三年产量增速最快，2022-2024 年权益 产量年化增速 9.6%，在一众样本企业中增速最快，成长性最为出色。另一方面， 公司的旗下矿山品位并非行业最优，但成本优势突出，体现出公司出色的运营能 力。同国内代表性企业相比，受制于矿山品位差异，当前公司的综合成本相对较 高，后续仍有改善空间。同时公司可以充分发挥矿山禀赋优势，针对品位高的矿 山，公司可以充分发挥资源优势，实现成本最优化。 ➢ 公司的核心竞争力体现为五环归一，实现经济效益最大化。 ...

● 本报记者 董添 近期，上市公司陆续披露2025年半年报及2025年半年度业绩预告。从黄金行业上市公司业绩看，受金价 高企影响，黄金行业上市公司业绩表现不俗。业绩回暖的同时，相关上市公司频繁获机构调研。从机构 调研的内容看，未来黄金产量、黄金产能扩张计划、公司成本变化等，是机构普遍关心的问题。 业绩大幅好转 从产业链角度看，黄金矿产开采端上市公司业绩普遍表现良好，包括西部黄金、湖南黄金、山东黄金、 中金黄金在内的多家上市公司业绩出现较为明显的增长。 山东黄金预计2025年上半年实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为25.5亿元至30.5亿元，同比增长84.3% 到120.5%。2025年上半年，公司统筹优化生产布局，强化核心技术攻关，提升精细管理水平，在科学 匹配项目建设的同时，显著提升运营效能，实现生产效率与资源利用率、项目建设速度的协同提升，同 时叠加黄金价格上行因素，公司利润同比涨幅较大，持续巩固了向上向好向优发展态势。 西部黄金预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为1.3亿元至1.6亿元，同比增长96.35%至 141.66%。预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净 ...

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 曾庆怡）8月8日，世界黄金协会发布报告称，6月，全球央行持续青睐黄 金。数据显示，2025年6月，全球官方黄金储备净增22吨，已连续第三个月环比小幅上升。2025年上半 年全球央行净购金达123吨，较2024年同期小幅下降。 世界黄金协会分析称，6月，乌兹别克斯坦央行是当月最大的净买家。哈萨克斯坦国际银行在6月的购金 规模同样显著。新加坡金融管理局（MAS）是唯一的净卖家，当月净售黄金6吨。值得关注的是，截至 7月底，中国人民银行黄金储备量为2300.41吨，环比增加1.86吨，连续九个月增持黄金。 上述报告介绍，今年上半年，全球央行购金总量略低于2024年的同期水平。波兰国家银行是2025年迄今 为止最大的净买家，净购金67吨，其次是阿塞拜疆国家石油基金和哈萨克斯坦国家银行。 文：曾庆怡 ...

Core Insights - International gold prices are rising due to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, geopolitical risks, and a weakening dollar, with spot gold surpassing $3,380 per ounce and a weekly increase of nearly 3.5% [1] - Citibank has raised its target price for gold to $3,500 per ounce over the next three months, indicating strong long-term bullish sentiment [1] Monetary Policy and Dollar Trends - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is fueled by disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, with a 92.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and a potential 50 basis point cut in October, which diminishes the dollar's attractiveness and benefits gold [4] - Global central bank gold purchases increased by 34% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 240 tons, with China increasing its holdings for eight consecutive months, supporting long-term gold prices [4] Geopolitical and Risk Aversion Factors - Tensions in the Middle East, including missile launches from Iran towards Israel and Israel's full occupation of Gaza, have heightened risk aversion, pushing gold prices higher [5] - Trade tensions, such as Trump's tariffs on countries like Russia and India, have raised supply chain concerns, making gold a preferred safe-haven asset [6] Technology and Consumer Demand - Emerging technologies like brain-computer interfaces and nanochips are increasing industrial demand for gold, with predictions of a potential increase in annual demand by thousands of tons in five years [7] - There is a divergence in consumer behavior, with traditional wedding demand remaining strong while some younger consumers are shifting towards "renting" gold jewelry; investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach, hoping for price corrections [7] Market Dynamics - A psychological barrier exists where consumers tend to buy when prices are rising, leading to a 30%-40% drop in sales when prices fall, as they anticipate lower prices [8] - Merchants' promotional efforts, such as reducing processing fees, have limited impact since these fees only account for 1%-2% of the total price [9] Price Expectations - Current gold prices (approximately 780 RMB per gram) are significantly higher than the beginning of the year (around 620 RMB per gram), with consumer price expectations centered around 600-700 RMB per gram [10] Investment and Consumer Strategies - Investors are advised to be cautious of technical pullback risks, particularly if prices fall below $3,200 per ounce, and to avoid high-leverage operations [11] - Long-term strategies include investing in gold ETFs or accumulating gold, with a recommended allocation of no more than 10% of household assets to hedge against inflation and currency depreciation [12] - Consumers in need should focus on wholesale markets for gold priced by gram and avoid high processing fee jewelry [13] - Some consumers are taking advantage of high prices to sell back gold, with ordinary jewelry being discounted by about 10 RMB per gram and high-weight gold bars only 2-3 RMB per gram [14] Future Trends Forecast - Short-term factors driving gold prices include geopolitical risks and interest rate cut expectations, with a target of $3,500 per ounce [15] - Mid-term price corrections may occur if trade tensions ease, potentially pulling prices back to the $2,700-$3,000 range [16] - Long-term prospects suggest a high probability of gold prices exceeding $4,000 due to central bank purchases and weakening dollar credibility [16]

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF (518880) experienced a slight decline of 0.46% to 7.354 CNY, with a trading volume of 10.67 billion CNY, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [1][2]. Fund Performance - Over the past 10 trading days, the gold ETF saw a net outflow of 23.17 billion CNY, while the last 5 days recorded a net outflow of 17.42 billion CNY, followed by a net inflow of 5.13 billion CNY in the last 2 days [1]. - As of July 28, 2025, the circulating scale of the gold ETF reached 576.41 billion CNY [1]. Market Analysis - Long-term outlook remains bullish for precious metals due to ongoing global central bank gold purchases and persistent supply-demand gaps in silver, despite short-term bearish pressures from easing risk aversion as global trade negotiations progress [2]. - The recent passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill by the U.S. Senate and the potential increase in fiscal deficit rates are expected to provide long-term support for gold prices [2]. Product Overview - The Huaan Gold ETF, established on July 18, 2013, is one of the earliest gold ETFs in China, benchmarked against domestic gold spot price returns, and has established a leading position in terms of scale and performance [3]. - Investors are advised to consider phased investment or dollar-cost averaging strategies when participating in the Huaan Gold ETF (518880) and its linked funds [3].

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold futures experienced fluctuations but maintained above the $3400 mark, indicating a recovery in market sentiment amid uncertainties in trade negotiations and a weakening dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On July 21, COMEX gold futures surged by 1.63%, reaching $3410 per ounce, marking a five-week high [1]. - On July 22, gold futures opened at $3410.7 per ounce, peaked at $3416.3, and then fell slightly to $3403.1, a decrease of 0.1% [1][2]. - The average price recorded was $3407.0, with a slight decline of $3.4 [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased market risk aversion and a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields ahead of the August 1 tariff negotiation deadline [3]. - Analysts suggest that four key factors will influence whether gold can surpass $3500: central bank purchasing, geopolitical tensions, inflation data, and dollar performance [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicated that 95% of central banks expect to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019, up 17 percentage points from 2024 [3]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Citigroup forecasts that gold prices will stabilize between $3100 and $3500 per ounce in Q3, with a potential fundamental weakness in the market due to declining investment demand thereafter [4].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of gold in the second half of the year will be influenced by four key factors, with the potential to challenge the $3500 mark and the historical highs set in the first half of the year [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - International gold prices rose over 1.5%, surpassing $3400 per ounce, marking a five-week high due to increased market risk aversion and weakening of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [1]. - The dollar index fell by 0.6%, dropping below the 98 mark, while the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched a one-week low, indicating a supportive environment for gold [2]. - Concerns over U.S. debt growth and further tariff updates are drawing attention to gold as a focal point, with prices appearing well-supported [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Global central bank enthusiasm is a significant driver, as central banks have been major buyers of gold, and their purchasing decisions can quickly impact the market [4]. - Geopolitical events often lead investors to shift from stocks and bonds to precious metals, with potential crises in July being a point of concern [4][5]. - Inflation data is crucial, as any sharp changes could signal economic weakness, prompting investors to increase their gold holdings [5]. - The historical negative correlation between gold and the dollar suggests that the outlook for gold prices will be influenced by the dollar's performance, which has seen a decline of over 10% in the first half of the year [5].