金价在突破每盎司4000美元大关后，全球知名投资机构瑞银再次释放积极信号，看好黄金未来走势。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室（CIO）在11月21日发布的最新报告中，将2026年年中黄金目标价从之前的每盎司4200美元上调至4500美元，涨幅达7.14%。 同时，瑞银将上行目标价从4700美元上调至4900美元，下行目标维持在3700美元不变。 这意味着瑞银认为，从现在到2026年年中，黄金仍有超过12%的潜在上涨空间。 01 金价表现强劲 黄金无疑是2025年表现最亮眼的资产类别之一。 今年以来，国际金价涨幅已接近60%，近期价格虽高位震荡，但仍稳定在每盎司4000美元以上。 10月份，黄金曾飙升至每盎司近4400美元的历史高点，随后回落至4000美元以下。 在最新的报告中，瑞银分析师指出，"回调已经暂时到位，在技术因素之外，我们认为没有抛售的根本原因。潜在需求仍然强劲"。 02 多重因素推动上涨 瑞银此次上调金价预期，并非凭空而来，而是基于一系列支撑黄金上涨的利好因素。 美联储降息预期是其中的关键因素。瑞银在报告中明确指出，美联储预期降息、实际收益率下降，将推动2026年黄金需求进一步上升。 实际收益率下降会 ...

法院18日裁定，得州新选区划分不仅带有政治目的，而且违反禁止种族歧视的法律规定。 共和党籍州长格雷格·阿博特发表声明说，这一判决结果"荒谬"，得州将向联邦最高法院提起上 诉。美司法部长帕姆·邦迪在社交媒体发帖，表示"强烈不认同"法院判决，并相信得州的上诉将在保守 派大法官人数占优的联邦最高法院获胜。 得州民主党人庆祝"胜利"，称法院"阻止了得州一次最明目张胆窃取民主的企图"。加利福尼亚州民 主党籍州长加文·纽森在社交媒体上写道，特朗普和阿博特"玩火自焚"。 共和党人在得州重划选区后，民主党主政的加州也如法炮制，被邦迪称为"公然攫取权力，践踏公 民权利，嘲弄民主进程"。美司法部和加州共和党人已提起诉讼，指控加州的选区划分方案违宪。 除得州和加州外，"版图大战"已在或可能即将在美国十多个州打响，包括密苏里州、俄亥俄州、印 第安纳州等。（惠晓霜） 新华社北京11月19日电 美国共和、民主两党正在多州展开"选区版图大战"，试图在明年中期选举 中夺得更多国会议席。共和党阵营"先锋"得克萨斯州出师不利，法院18日裁定，禁止该州明年采用有利 于共和党的新选区划分。 一家联邦法院的法官以2比1的裁决结果，推翻了共和党人控制的 ...

Core Points - Trump's urgent return to the U.S. after the China-U.S. meeting is linked to addressing domestic economic issues and preparing for the upcoming midterm elections [1][2] - The urgency reflects the need to resolve economic dissatisfaction among the public, which could impact his presidency and the Republican Party's performance in the 2024 elections [1][6] - Trump's strategy may involve a significant shift in approach towards China, emphasizing the importance of stable relations [4][6] Economic Context - The article highlights that Trump's administration has faced criticism for its economic policies, particularly following a trade war that has negatively impacted the U.S. economy [1][6] - The upcoming midterm elections are crucial for Trump, especially after a previous defeat in 2018, making economic recovery a priority [1][2] Political Strategy - Trump's recent comments about the China-U.S. relationship suggest a desire to maintain peace and stability, which may be a strategic move to bolster his domestic standing [4][6] - The Democratic Party has recognized Trump's potential shift in strategy, leading to increased criticism from figures like Obama, who challenge Trump's leadership and economic management [6][7] Domestic Security Measures - Reports indicate that Trump has ordered the formation of a rapid response force to address potential domestic unrest, indicating a proactive approach to managing political tensions [7][9] - This move may reflect Trump's intent to involve the military in domestic affairs, reminiscent of past actions during civil unrest [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's recent statements regarding Nigeria indicate a potential shift in U.S. foreign policy, suggesting possible military intervention if the Nigerian government fails to address attacks on Christians [1][3]. Group 1: Political Context - Trump's remarks are closely tied to the influence of American evangelical groups, who have been advocating for the plight of Nigerian Christians, reflecting a strategy to solidify support from this voter base [3][5]. - The timing of Trump's statements coincides with upcoming midterm elections, where the Republican Party seeks to demonstrate effective governance by diverting attention from domestic issues through external crises [5]. Group 2: Military Considerations - The Pentagon has reportedly begun preparations for potential military action, indicating a serious consideration of intervention, although such actions would require significant military capability and resources [1][5]. - The U.S. military's experience from previous conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq has led to a cautious approach regarding simultaneous engagements in multiple regions, raising questions about the feasibility of addressing both Venezuela and Nigeria concurrently [5]. Group 3: Potential Outcomes - The most likely scenario involves the U.S. maintaining a strong stance to compel Nigeria to enhance its counter-terrorism efforts, allowing Trump to claim a diplomatic victory without resorting to actual military action [5].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a complex scenario characterized by strong consumer spending, rising AI investments, and a softening labor market [1][4] - The growth is primarily driven by productivity improvements from AI investments, suggesting a potential increase in the U.S. economy's long-term growth rate [1][4] AI Investment Impact - AI investments are stimulating demand and boosting confidence, with significant direct and indirect effects on productivity [1][14] - Current productivity growth is notable, but it remains uncertain how much of it is structural versus cyclical [4][14] Tariff Policy Effects - Tariff costs are mainly borne by importers, with limited immediate impact on consumer prices, thus having a gradual effect on inflation [1][10] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led some businesses to delay investments, which could affect overall investment levels [10][11] Monetary Policy Outlook - Current inflation is around 3%, above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, which may limit the scope for further interest rate cuts [2][9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a "data-driven" approach in its monetary policy decisions amid the current economic complexities [2][8] Labor Market and Employment - Despite strong productivity growth, there are concerns that AI may lead to structural unemployment, particularly affecting skilled jobs [2][14] - The labor market is showing mixed signals, with productivity growth not translating into significant job creation [4][5] Debt and Political Environment - The U.S. debt issue is technically manageable, but political will to address it is lacking, which could raise investor concerns in the long term [2][19] - The outcome of the 2026 midterm elections could influence policy continuity, with potential implications for U.S.-China-EU economic relations [2][22] Global Economic Relations - There is a call for enhanced dialogue among countries to address structural adjustments in global trade and growth models [2][22] - The U.S. dollar's status is not expected to weaken significantly, but irresponsible fiscal policies could lead to investor concerns [2][18]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached its 35th day, matching the record set during Trump's presidency, with no signs of compromise between the Democratic and Republican parties [1] - Elections are taking place in multiple states, intensifying the competition between the two parties over voter influence [6][8] Group 1: Government Shutdown - The ongoing government shutdown has led to widespread frustration among lawmakers, with Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson expressing anger towards the Democratic party for their actions [3] - Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries criticized the rising cost of living and blamed Trump's tariff policies for worsening the situation, emphasizing the need to address the healthcare crisis caused by the Republican party [5] Group 2: Elections and Political Dynamics - Elections are being held in New Jersey, Virginia, New York City, and California, with significant positions at stake, including governorships and congressional redistricting [6][8] - In New Jersey, despite being a traditionally Democratic state, the candidates are closely matched in support; in Virginia, the Democratic candidate is favored for governor, but the Attorney General position may go to the Republicans [8] - The California special vote on redistricting could potentially allow Democrats to gain five additional House seats in the upcoming midterm elections, following similar favorable outcomes for Republicans in Texas and Missouri [12] - The political rivalry and division in the U.S. are exhausting for ordinary citizens, who are seeking more focus on issues that directly affect their lives [14][16]

Core Points - The recent state and local elections in the U.S., including the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections and the New York City mayoral election, are seen as indicators for the 2026 midterm elections [1][4] - Former President Trump has publicly endorsed independent candidate Andrew Cuomo for the New York City mayoral race, emphasizing the necessity of voting for him over his opponents [1][3] - The election outcome is crucial not only for the mayoral position but also for the future direction of the Democratic Party and its performance in the upcoming midterm elections [4] Group 1 - Trump's support for Cuomo, a former Democratic governor, marks a significant cross-party endorsement, as he typically aligns with Republican candidates [1][3] - Cuomo, who resigned in 2021 due to a sexual harassment scandal, is running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary to the current frontrunner, 34-year-old Democratic Socialist candidate, Mamdani [3] - Mamdani, who has a strong lead in polls, represents a shift towards a more progressive Democratic agenda, which could influence the party's strategy moving forward [3][4] Group 2 - The election results are anticipated to reflect the political climate and voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterms, making these local elections particularly significant [4] - Trump's comments about withholding federal funds from New York City if Mamdani wins highlight the potential political ramifications of the election outcome [3]

Group 1: Election Context - The 2026 midterm elections in the U.S. are approaching, raising concerns about the Trump administration's potential policy adjustments to support Republican candidates[5] - Current mainstream election forecasts suggest that Republicans have a relative advantage in the House of Representatives, but uncertainty remains regarding their ability to retain a majority[5] - For the Senate, predictions indicate a high probability that Republicans will maintain their majority[5] Group 2: Louisiana Redistricting Case - The Louisiana v. Callais case involves a dispute over the state's redistricting plan, which was deemed to violate the Voting Rights Act by not providing adequate representation for Black voters[5] - If the 2024 redistricting plan is ruled unconstitutional, the Republican-controlled state government could revert to the 2020 plan, potentially converting Democratic seats into Republican advantages[5] - The case raises two main issues: the constitutionality of the 2024 redistricting plan and the constitutionality of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which could impact Republican strategies in Southern states[5] Group 3: Implications for Republican Strategy - If Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act is weakened, Republicans could create more districts favorable to their party, potentially reversing up to 17 Democratic seats outside Louisiana[5] - The Supreme Court's ruling on these issues could asymmetrically affect the midterm elections, benefiting Republicans if the Voting Rights Act is weakened[5] - Overall, the Republican Party may have opportunities to reduce midterm election risks, leading to less constraint on Trump's subsequent policies[5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as the beginning of a new monetary policy phase rather than an end to economic challenges, with implications for both the U.S. and Chinese markets [2][30]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, which was largely anticipated by the market [11][13]. - Historical data shows that previous rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have often led to significant increases in the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a potential positive impact on Chinese stock markets [10][12]. - The decision to cut rates reflects a balancing act between maximizing employment and maintaining price stability, with current economic indicators suggesting a focus on employment due to rising unemployment rates [14][16]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the U.S. dollar index saw a slight increase of 0.15%, while major stock indices experienced minor declines, indicating mixed market reactions [8]. - The rate cut is expected to have spillover effects on global financial markets, particularly influencing capital flows and exchange rates [9]. Group 3: Implications for China - The Federal Reserve's actions are likely to open up more monetary policy space for China, potentially leading to similar rate cuts by the People's Bank of China [35][37]. - Analysts suggest that the Chinese market may benefit from increased liquidity and a more favorable environment for equities and real estate as a result of the Fed's decision [36][47]. - The potential for a weaker U.S. dollar could also enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets, providing a boost to exports [44]. Group 4: Economic Perspectives - Economists express concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence being challenged, which could undermine the credibility of the U.S. dollar and have broader implications for global markets [32][50]. - The ongoing political dynamics, particularly the influence of President Trump on the Federal Reserve, may complicate future monetary policy decisions [28][49].

Group 1 - Trump's commitment to issue an executive order to terminate mail-in ballots and voting machines before the 2026 midterm elections could significantly benefit the Republican Party [1][3] - Historically, Democratic voters are more inclined to use mail-in ballots, making Trump's promise a strategic move to reshape the midterm election landscape in favor of his party [3] - Trump has criticized mail-in voting as fraudulent and costly, claiming it undermines true democracy, despite lacking evidence of widespread fraud in the 2016 and 2020 elections [3][4] Group 2 - Legal experts assert that the U.S. Constitution grants states the authority to manage federal elections, meaning Trump cannot unilaterally dictate how states conduct elections [4] - Recent polling indicates Trump's support has dropped to 40%, the lowest since his return to the political scene, with particularly low ratings among Hispanic voters [4] - Trump has promised voters that under his potential second term, income will rise, inflation will disappear, and the middle class will experience unprecedented prosperity, although current voter sentiment reflects disappointment [4]