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期货研究报告 2026年01月05日 周报 PTA期货：阶段性兑现利润为佳 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周PTA盘面强势上涨，TA2605收5110元/吨，跌170元/吨或3.22%。近期PX的大涨 及PXN的大幅走扩，基本已反应节后的预期。供应来看，效益刺激下PX工厂 提负荷意愿增加，加之PTA工厂 也在高位出售现货PX，PX供应整体较预期宽松；随着PTA加工费修复，1季度PTA装置检修不确定性增加，而 下游聚酯春节前后季节性降负，使得PTA1季度累库预期增强，且近期部分聚酯大厂计划逐步降负，PTA自身 驱动有限，跟随原料波动为主。 2、对于后市，PX基本已反应节后预期，近期PX供应整体较预期宽松，远端预期较好。TA方面，PTA1季 度累库预期增强，且近期部分聚酯大厂计划逐步降负，PTA自身驱动有限，中长期随着产能集中投放周期结 束，PTA加工费预计将逐步改善。短线多头兑现利润为佳。 关注因素：1.聚酯开工率；2.PTA检修；3.织机开工率；4、PX调整需求；5、原油走势。 | PTA | 单位 | 最新一周 | ...

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【核心逻辑】海外方面，美国 GDP 数据数据公布，三季度 GDP 超预期增长 4.3%，创两年 最快增速，整体表现相对强劲，在一定程度上打击了降息预期。美国就业市场回温，上周 首申 21.4 万人，较前值小幅回落，整体数据显示劳动力市场仍具韧性。在缺乏新催化剂、 流动性偏紧的背景下，美联储会议纪要未能提振美股。接下来重点关注特朗普公布的下任 美联储主席人选情况。国内方面，政治局会议与中央经济工作会议延续"稳中求进"总基调， 继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策；明年重点工作以扩大内需为首要任 务，核心在于推进城乡居民增收与释放服务消费潜力，同时依托创新推动新旧动能转换。 而 11 月经济数据显示工业生产韧性尚存，社会消费品零售同比增速降至 1.3%，内需表现 偏弱，仍需政策托底。关注国内 PMI 数据公布情况。 人民币汇率：7 关口迎终局检验 【行情回顾】前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 6.9901，较上一交易日上涨 197 个基点，创 2023 年 5 月以来新高，夜盘收报 6.9940。在岸、离岸人民币对美元一度 均升破 6.99 关口。人民币对美元中间价报 7.0348，较上 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, glass, soda ash, 2-year treasury bonds, 5-year treasury bonds, log, pulp, double offset paper, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean two, rubber: Oscillation [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500, CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 10-year treasury bonds: Consolidation [3] - Gold, silver: Correction [5] - Live pigs: Relatively strong [7] - PX, PTA: Wide-range oscillation [9] - MEG: Low-level oscillation [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views of the Report - The high supply, weak demand, and high inventory pattern of iron ore remains unchanged, but short-term bullish sentiment has emerged due to policy changes and the expectation of pre-holiday restocking by steel mills. Long-term shorting opportunities should be considered after restocking is realized [2] - The fourth round of price cuts for coke is expected to be proposed at the end of the month and implemented in early January. Coal coke still has support due to capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti-involution policies [2] - The implementation of the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply-side policy benefits to demand-side negatives, which will have a direct impact on steel exports and raw material prices [2] - The price of glass is expected to experience a process of first verifying supply reduction and then verifying demand sustainability. The overall demand is weak, and attention should be paid to macro and production line cold repair situations [2] - The stock indexes of the previous trading day showed different trends. The government's advance allocation of 625 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods trade-in programs is expected to drive consumption [3] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Short-term corrections are possible, but there is solid medium- to long-term support [5] - The supply of logs is expected to stabilize, but demand is relatively weak. Prices are expected to oscillate [5] - The supply of pulp is abundant, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [5] - The supply of double offset paper is stable, and demand has some support. Prices are expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [5] - The supply of edible oils is abundant, and demand is uncertain. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6] - The global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. Prices are expected to oscillate [6] - The demand for live pigs is expected to increase during the New Year's Day holiday, which will support price increases [7] - The price of natural rubber is expected to oscillate due to supply and demand factors and inventory accumulation [9] - The supply of PX is high, and the demand for PTA has some support. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [9] - The supply of MEG has long-term accumulation pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [9] - The polyester bottle chip market may consolidate within a range due to the high price of raw materials and a wait-and-see attitude in the industry [9] - The short fiber market is expected to be in a wait-and-see state in the short term [9] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: High supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short-term bullish sentiment due to policy and restocking expectations. Long-term shorting after restocking [2] - **Coal Coke**: Fourth round of price cuts expected. Support from capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti-involution policies [2] - **Rolled Steel**: Impacted by export license management. Policy changes bring short-term bullish sentiment, but prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [2] - **Glass**: Cold repair expected at the end of the year. Market to verify supply reduction and demand sustainability. Overall demand is weak [2] - **Soda Ash**: Inventory accumulation, high midstream inventory, and weak demand. Attention to macro and production line cold repair [2] Financial - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Different trends in previous trading day's stock indexes. Advance allocation of special treasury bonds to support consumption [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest rates are in a state of consolidation, and the market shows a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Pricing mechanism shift. Short-term corrections possible, but solid medium- to long-term support [5] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, short-term corrections and medium- to long-term support [5] Light Industry - **Log**: Supply expected to stabilize, demand weak. Prices to oscillate [5] - **Pulp**: Abundant supply, weak demand. Prices to maintain an oscillating trend [5] - **Double Offset Paper**: Stable supply, some demand support. Short-term stable oscillation [5] Oilseeds and Oils - **Edible Oils**: Abundant supply, uncertain demand. Short-term price oscillation [6] - **Meal**: Abundant global soybean inventory, sufficient soybean meal supply. Price oscillation [6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Increased demand during the New Year's Day holiday to support price increases [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply affected by weather, demand with some support. Inventory accumulation, price oscillation [9] Polyester - **PX**: High supply, demand supported by downstream polyester. Price wide-range oscillation [9] - **PTA**: Cost affected by oil prices, short-term supply-demand improvement. Price wide-range oscillation [9] - **MEG**: Long-term supply accumulation pressure, short-term low-level oscillation [9] - **PR**: High raw material prices, industry wait-and-see. Market range consolidation [9] - **PF**: Short-term market wait-and-see [9]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-30） | | | | 铁矿：铁矿自身高供给、弱需求、高库存格局不变。当下 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 铁水有所企稳、但板材库存高压，钢厂检修预期升温，现 | | | | 震荡 | 实需求疲弱。近期政策面有三项较为重要的变化，一是出 | | | 铁矿石 | | 口许可管理，二是发改委强调明年开始有效管控双高项 | | | | | 目，三是高层扩内需的强调，短期产生利多情绪。同时较 | | | | | 为明显的低库存+钢厂节前补库预期逻辑，铁矿石期货暂 | | | | | 时忽略了需求淡季和库存高位的现实压力，延续技术性反 | | | | | 弹。长期做空机会的入场节点，需要等补库兑现之后再行 | | | | | 考虑。 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 煤焦：焦炭第四轮提降预计月底提，预计 1 月初落地。年 | | | | | 底产能倒査、安监巡视作为现实催化，叠加反内卷政策的 | | | | | 预期，煤焦仍有支撑 ...

宏观：双主线引爆市场：有色金属狂欢与人民币升值 【市场资讯】1）2026 年全国两会召开时间来了：政协 3 月 4 日，人大 3 月 5 日。2）财政 部：2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，扩大财政支出盘子，继续支持消费品以旧换新。 3）中国 11 月规模以上工业企业利润同比下降 13.1%，前 11 个月同比微增，高技术制造业 利润增速加快。工业生产和利润率的下滑是利润增速收窄的主因。4）香港财政司司长陈茂 波：三方面助力人民币国际化，吸引全球优质公司来港上市，开拓国际黄金交易新机遇。5） 克里姆林宫：俄美总统均认为以公投为借口暂时停火只会延长俄乌冲突。特朗普称俄乌均 有意结束冲突，美乌将达成安全协议。6）芝商所 12 月 26 日发布重大保证金调整通知称， 将于 12 月 29 日收盘后，全面上调黄金、白银、锂等金属期货品种的履约保证金。 金融期货早评 【核心逻辑】上周市场呈现有色金属强势上涨与人民币汇率加速升值的双主线特征。有色 金属板块中，白银表现尤为突出。本轮白银上涨是供需格局、资金动向及比价效应共同作 用的结果，但短期涨幅过高叠加明年 1 月大宗商品指数调仓带来的减持压力，需警惕回调 风险， ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 天天 | 卖价 | 准幅31 | 买卖 | 学语 | 成交量 | 图层 | 持仓量 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 2008 DE | 502.20 | 217 | 502.20 | 505.00 | -8.52% | 3 | 18 | | 217 -46.80 | 27354 | 41 | | 2 | H2506 W | 677.00 | 442 | 677.00 | 679.15 | -3.94% | 1 | ব | | 442 -27.80 | 43162 | -36 | | 3 对 | 1 中 2603 W | 7290 | 3 | 7292 | 7294 | -2.67% | 1 | 1 | 186688 | -200 | 260299 | -19650 | | ਧ | PT62605 W | 5120 | 11 | 5120 | 5 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 2025 年 12 月 24 日星期三 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zh ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2025年12月24日，早盘开盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。 沪银涨超4%，沪镍、烧碱涨超2%，PX、 沪铜涨超1%。跌幅方面，丁二烯橡胶跌超2%，沪锡、乙二醇（EG）、焦煤跌超1%。 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 麻川 | 现手 | 买价 | 李价 | 大学理学十 | 买卖 | 主席 | 成交量 | 流跃 | 持创学 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 田2606 M | 657.65 | 1234 | 657.65 | - | 7.00% | 914 | --- | 1234 43.00 | | 38400 | -513 | | 2 | 把2606 M | 577.00 | 704 | 577.00 | 577.15 | 6.72% | 7 | 5 | | 704 36.35 | 21406 | 247 | | 3 | 护银2602 M | 17150 | 3005 | 17150 | 171 ...