Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The chemical market is affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical risks, supply and demand dynamics, and cost fluctuations. Different chemical products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated within the day. With price concessions, downstream demand increased, inventory pressure eased, and prices rose slightly [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures fluctuated above the 5 - day moving average. For polyethylene, supply decreased due to more maintenance and less imports, and demand was stable. For polypropylene, supply was expected to shrink, but high prices restricted downstream procurement [2] Polyester - PX and PTA prices declined due to negative factors such as tanker passage in the Strait of Hormuz and terminal feedback. Middle - East oil supply may recover, and terminal demand was weak [3] - Ethylene glycol prices first rose due to supply concerns and then fell due to reduced negative expectations and downstream feedback [3] - Short - fiber load decreased slightly, and the market followed raw material fluctuations. Bottle - chip supply decreased, and prices may be pressured if oil supply recovers [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - East China pure benzene spot prices fell, and domestic production decreased. Port inventory decreased. Short - term prices were affected by cost and supply [5] - Styrene futures opened low and closed high, with a high - level consolidation pattern. Supply and demand were expected to decrease, and the fundamentals had some support [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures maintained a high - level shock. Import and domestic supply decreased, and demand recovered. The market was expected to be strong [6] - Urea futures prices fell, and the spot market was stable with a slight decline. Supply was high, and agricultural demand weakened. The market was expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC continued a strong trend. Supply decreased, inventory was still under pressure, and downstream demand increased seasonally. It was expected to be strong in the short term [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. Liquid caustic soda inventory decreased, and export inquiries were good. The market followed sentiment but might have large fluctuations [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fell from a high level. Inventory decreased slightly, supply increased slightly, and demand was stable. It followed macro - sentiment in the short term [8] - Glass fluctuated weakly. Inventory was high, and demand improvement was limited. It might show a wide - range shock [8]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the PTA market price increased significantly. Due to the continued escalation of geopolitical conflicts, international oil prices rose sharply, and concerns about supply disruptions intensified. With the traditional peak season approaching, the cost - side push and the expectation of demand recovery led to a significant increase in the PTA market price [2]. - In terms of supply and demand, Yisheng New Materials reduced its load near the weekend. Due to the restart of some devices last week, domestic PTA supply increased slightly. The terminal performance was poor, the restart of polyester maintenance devices was postponed, and PTA inventory increased slightly [2]. - For the future, TA terminal orders are not ideal, and downstream resistance is strong. PTA social inventory is expected to continue to increase. However, geopolitical conflicts continue to ferment, and there is no sign of alleviation in the short term. The pressure of tightening crude oil supply still exists in the next cycle. Geopolitical situation and oil price changes are the main variables in the PTA market recently [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The PTA market price increased significantly this week. Geopolitical conflicts led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, and concerns about supply disruptions increased. The approaching traditional peak season, cost - side push, and demand recovery expectation drove the price up. In terms of supply and demand, PTA supply increased slightly, terminal performance was poor, and inventory increased slightly [2]. - For the future, terminal orders are not good, downstream resistance is strong, and inventory is expected to increase. Geopolitical conflicts continue, and the pressure of tightening crude oil supply remains. Geopolitical situation and oil price changes are the main variables [2]. Key Factors to Watch - Polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trend [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA futures (continuous) | Yuan/ton | 6832.00 | 6030.00 | 900.00 | 17.54% | Daily | | PTA output | 10,000 tons | 152.73 | 152.15 | 0.58 | 0.38% | Weekly | | Polyester chip operating rate | % | 86.22 | 81.35 | 4.87 | 6.00% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate | % | 51.25 | 42.36 | 8.89 | 21.00% | Weekly | | PXN | Yuan/ton | 214 | 297 | - 83 | - 27.95% | Daily | | PTA cash - flow cost | Yuan/ton | 6978 | 5881 | 1097 | 18.65% | Daily | [4] PX Market - There are charts showing PX futures closing prices, PX ex - factory prices in East China, PX CIF prices in Taiwan, CFR naphtha prices in Japan and their spreads, PX and MX prices in Taiwan and their spreads, MX FOB prices in South Korea and the US Gulf and their spreads [6][7][9]. PX Supply - There are charts showing PX output in Asia and China, PX monthly import volume and its year - on - year change, PX operating rates in China and Asia, and PX inventory [13][14][17]. PTA Market - There is a chart showing PTA futures closing prices (continuous) and the mainstream price in East China [20]. PTA Supply - There are charts showing PTA monthly output, PTA operating rate, and PTA social inventory [24][28]. PTA Consumption - There are charts showing PTA export volume, monthly output of polyester filament and polyester staple fiber, operating rates of polyester chips, polyester filament, and polyester staple fiber, and the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [30][32][34]. Cost - Profit Analysis - There is a chart showing PTA spot price in East China, PTA cash - flow cost, and PTA profit [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current domestic macro - environment in China is generally favorable, serving as the core support for risk assets in Q1. Overseas, the focus is on the Walsh trade, US tariff developments, and Middle East geopolitical tensions. It is recommended to moderately increase risk appetite and enhance offensive positioning within a balanced framework [7][8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 February Review of Major Assets - Global major asset classes in February shifted towards "structural divergence". In the equity market, A - shares outperformed overall with style differences, mid - cap and small - to - mid cap segments led, while large - cap indices lagged. Hong Kong stocks were weak, tech sector retreats were notable. Developed markets in overseas equities diverged, emerging markets performed better. In the bond market, rate - sensitive assets were stable. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar strengthened, pressuring non - dollar currencies. In the commodity market, it was overall weak but with structural features [14][15][18]. 3.2 Market Focus: The Unfolding of the "Walsh Trade" - The market's perception of Kevin Walsh's trading legacy has evolved. The "Walsh Trade" was initially characterized by a bull flattening of the yield curve. The key contention is the feasibility of "rate cuts + QT". If QT triggers a liquidity crisis, it may invalidate Walsh's policy framework. His policy mix is more supportive of growth - oriented equities but may pressure long - dated bonds [22][24][25]. 3.3 Macro Environment Outlook 3.3.1 Overseas Macro - Global manufacturing PMI edged up in January to 50.9. US macro data in January showed signs of a "Goldilocks" scenario with inflation softening, unemployment rate declining, and employment data improving. Q4 GDP missed expectations but the effects of rate cuts may be materializing. Tariff developments added market uncertainty, and the legal effect of a court decision on tariffs may take effect from mid - March to early April [26][30][33]. 3.3.2 Chinese Domestic Macro - The domestic macroeconomic outlook will remain generally supportive in Q1, with favorable investment environment for risk assets. Policy expectations for a strong start to the 15th Five - Year Plan and anticipated inflation rebound are the core themes, and economic structural transformation and upgrading are long - term drivers [36]. 3.4 Outlook for Major Assets 3.4.1 Stock Index - In March, the domestic equity market is likely to continue its volatile yet upward movement. Policy acceleration, recovering inflation, and economic structural transformation are the driving factors. It is recommended to overweight IC [39]. 3.4.2 Commodities - **Precious Metals**: In March, geopolitical trading and tariff adjustments will drive the market. Precious metals may trend higher with gold receiving stronger impetus from geopolitical factors [44]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Geopolitical factors may support non - ferrous metals. Prices may be volatile but biased higher. Copper, aluminum, and tin may see price centers shift upward [50]. - **Ferrous Metals**: In March, there will be a tug - of - war between inventory trends and policy expectations. Ferrous metals are expected to trade in wide ranges, and iron ore faces significant downside pressure [54]. - **Energy & Chemicals**: Oil prices will enter a validation phase for geopolitical supply disruption concerns. Chemical products have limited downside and merit attention [59]. 3.4.3 Bonds - In March, short - duration bonds are likely to outperform medium - to long - duration bonds, and overall asset payoff is modest. Future rate - cut space appears limited [64]. 3.5 Strategic Asset Allocation Recommendations - In March, moderately increase risk appetite and adopt a more aggressive posture on a balanced allocation framework. Overweight mid - cap style in domestic equity indices (focus on IC), have a neutral stance on government bonds with a standard long position in the short end (focus on TS), overweight non - ferrous metals, have a standard long in the chemical chain, and a standard short in ferrous metals. Overweight gold futures and have a standard position in silver futures [68][69][70].

Group 1: Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The main contract closed at 527.8, up 43.5 or 8.98% from the previous settlement. The trading volume was 190,029 lots, an increase of 45,717 lots. The open interest was 44,601 lots, with a net increase of 5,628 lots [2]. - PTA: The main contract closed at 5,552, up 336 or 6.44%. The trading volume was 2,276,096 lots, an increase of 1,336,643 lots. The open interest was 1,467,484 lots, with a net increase of 20,629 lots [2]. - PX: The main contract closed at 7,836, up 496 or 6.76%. The trading volume was 514,606 lots, an increase of 259,452 lots. The open interest was 277,536 lots, with a net increase of 5,048 lots [2]. - Rubber: The main contract closed at 17,245, up 155 or 0.91%. The trading volume was 364,042 lots, an increase of 145,215 lots. The open interest was 170,621 lots, with a net decrease of 3,594 lots [2]. - NR: The main contract closed at 13,870, up 85 or 0.62%. The trading volume was 65,365 lots, an increase of 12,794 lots. The open interest was 31,588 lots, with a net decrease of 6,492 lots [2]. Group 2: Metals - Copper: The main contract closed at 103,850, up 1,030 or 1.00%. The trading volume was 175,311 lots, an increase of 17,830 lots. The open interest was 199,587 lots, with a net decrease of 4,212 lots [17]. - Aluminum: The main contract closed at 24,465, up 760 or 3.21%. The trading volume was 483,091 lots, an increase of 164,840 lots. The open interest was 277,833 lots, with a net increase of 19,143 lots [17]. - Zinc: The main contract closed at 24,850, up 275 or 1.12%. The trading volume was 186,884 lots, an increase of 82,336 lots. The open interest was 95,630 lots, with a net increase of 756 lots [17]. - Nickel: The main contract closed at 140,890, up 1,520 or 1.09%. The trading volume was 554,437 lots, an increase of 55,750 lots. The open interest was 219,113 lots, with a net increase of 369 lots [17]. - Tin: The main contract closed at 444,010, up 12,760 or 2.96%. The trading volume was 462,888 lots, an increase of 71,755 lots. The open interest was 49,946 lots, with a net decrease of 5,846 lots [17]. - Alumina: The main contract closed at 2,773, up 16 or 0.58%. The trading volume was 365,789 lots, a decrease of 181,123 lots. The open interest was 344,018 lots, with a net decrease of 33,878 lots [17]. - Industrial silicon: The main contract closed at 8,325, up 20 or 0.24%. The trading volume was 202,748 lots, a decrease of 63,533 lots. The open interest was 334,292 lots, with a net increase of 5,876 lots [17]. - Lithium carbonate: The main contract closed at 172,020, down 1,660 or -0.96%. The trading volume was 227,061 lots, a decrease of 54,919 lots. The open interest was 378,336 lots, with a net decrease of 3,216 lots [17]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Live hogs: The main contract closed at 11,220, down 220 or -1.92%. The trading volume was 97,976 lots, an increase of 27,200 lots. The open interest was 165,149 lots, with a net increase of 9,894 lots [21]. - Corn: The main contract closed at 2,384, up 37 or 1.58%. The trading volume was 951,555 lots, an increase of 426,449 lots. The open interest was 1,502,061 lots, with a net increase of 26,583 lots [21]. - Soybean meal: The main contract closed at 2,826, down 2 or -0.07%. The trading volume was 905,873 lots, an increase of 185,687 lots. The open interest was 1,942,859 lots, with a net decrease of 85,078 lots [21]. - Rapeseed meal: The main contract closed at 2,295, up 10 or 0.44%. The trading volume was 487,190 lots, an increase of 158,121 lots. The open interest was 909,258 lots, with a net increase of 516 lots [21]. - Soybean oil: The main contract closed at 8,260, up 34 or 0.41%. The trading volume was 328,276 lots, an increase of 86,230 lots. The open interest was 656,400 lots, with a net decrease of 10,210 lots [21]. - Rapeseed oil: The main contract closed at 9,359, up 151 or 1.64%. The trading volume was 248,126 lots, an increase of 102,219 lots. The open interest was 268,810 lots, with a net increase of 10,866 lots [21]. - Palm oil: The main contract closed at 8,898, up 142 or 1.62%. The trading volume was 489,772 lots, an increase of 110,156 lots. The open interest was 387,932 lots, with a net decrease of 5,670 lots [21]. - Eggs: The main contract closed at 3,242, down 16 or -0.49%. The trading volume was 141,502 lots, a decrease of 13,045 lots. The open interest was 122,413 lots, with a net decrease of 11,753 lots [21]. Group 4: Others - Glass: The main contract closed at 1,043, down 9 or -0.86%. The trading volume was 1,624,477 lots, an increase of 942,426 lots. The open interest was 1,365,461 lots, with a net increase of 151,479 lots [12]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1,188, up 3 or 0.25%. The trading volume was 1,270,083 lots, an increase of 512,115 lots. The open interest was 1,141,408 lots, with a net increase of 3,450 lots [12]. - Methanol: The main contract closed at 2,365, up 176 or 8.04%. The trading volume was 2,857,069 lots, an increase of 1,987,533 lots. The open interest was 942,819 lots, with a net decrease of 34,450 lots [12]. - PP: The main contract closed at 6,998, up 396 or 6.00%. The trading volume was 888,436 lots, an increase of 481,027 lots. The open interest was 498,613 lots, with a net increase of 8,140 lots [12]. - Sugar: The main contract closed at 5,345, up 31 or 0.58%. The trading volume was 353,834 lots, a decrease of 23,874 lots. The open interest was 469,987 lots, with a net decrease of 3,352 lots [26]. - Zheng cotton: The main contract closed at 15,225, down 105 or -0.68%. The trading volume was 461,720 lots, an increase of 39,923 lots. The open interest was 794,512 lots, with a net decrease of 43,468 lots [26]. - Cotton yarn: The main contract closed at 21,100, down 125 or -0.59%. The trading volume was 11,204 lots, a decrease of 2,110 lots. The open interest was 14,198 lots, with a net decrease of 296 lots [26]. - Apples: The main contract closed at 9,896, up 108 or 1.10%. The trading volume was 91,817 lots, a decrease of 18,121 lots. The open interest was 130,604 lots, with a net increase of 1,829 lots [26]. - Red dates: The main contract closed at 8,840, up 5 or 0.06%. The trading volume was 71,523 lots, a decrease of 24,143 lots. The open interest was 116,270 lots, with a net decrease of 1,655 lots [26]. - Corn starch: The main contract closed at 2,694, up 35 or 1.32%. The trading volume was 158,988 lots, an increase of 67,317 lots. The open interest was 244,396 lots, with a net increase of 12,884 lots [26]. - European container shipping: The main contract closed at 1,429, up 186 or 15.00%. The trading volume was 81,309 lots, an increase of 49,246 lots. The open interest was 46,243 lots, with a net increase of 8,998 lots [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is still concerned about the uncertainty of US - Iran relations, and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have no substantial progress. International oil prices rose during the Spring Festival. The "talk - and - fight" situation between the US and Iran creates uncertainty as Trump's "10 - 15 day ultimatum" to Iran approaches. Driven by crude oil, PTA futures opened higher and trended up after the holiday [3]. - The demand side is weak, the balance sheet continues to accumulate inventory, and PTA still faces significant de - stocking pressure. The strengthening of oil prices due to geopolitical reasons provides some support to the market. In the short term, it is mainly driven by the strengthening of crude oil [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The market is worried about the uncertainty of US - Iran relations and the lack of progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks. International oil prices rose during the Spring Festival. The "talk - and - fight" between the US and Iran and the approaching ultimatum bring uncertainty. PTA futures opened higher and rose after the holiday due to the influence of crude oil [3]. - The demand - side balance sheet accumulates inventory, and PTA has large de - stocking pressure. Geopolitical factors support the market, and in the short term, it is driven by the strengthening of crude oil [3]. Attention Factors - Polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trend should be focused on [4]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA futures (continuous) | Yuan/ton | 5130.00 | 5122.00 | 8.00 | 0.16% | Daily | | PTA production | 10,000 tons | 145.54 | 146.42 | - 0.88 | - 0.60% | Weekly | | Polyester chip operating rate | % | 73.95 | 78.93 | - 4.98 | - 6.31% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate | % | 11.76 | 22.41 | - 10.65 | - 47.52% | Weekly | | PXN | Yuan/ton | 310 | 288 | 22.00 | 7.64% | Daily | | PTA cash - flow cost | Yuan/ton | 4958 | 4952 | 6.00 | 0.12% | Daily | [5] PX - Related Analysis - **PX Spot and Futures Market Review**: Multiple charts show PX futures closing prices, factory prices in East China, prices in Taiwan, and relevant price differences [7][8][10]. - **PX Supply Situation Analysis**: Charts display PX production in Asia and China, monthly import volume and its year - on - year change, operating rates in China and Asia, and PX inventory [13][17][19]. PTA - Related Analysis - **PTA Spot and Futures Market Review**: A chart shows the continuous closing price of PTA futures in China and the mainstream price in East China [21]. - **PTA Supply Situation Analysis**: Charts present PTA monthly production, operating rate, and social inventory [23][26]. - **PTA Consumption Situation Analysis**: Charts show PTA export, monthly production of polyester filaments and staple fibers, operating rates of polyester chips, filaments, and staple fibers, and the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [28][30][32]. - **Cost - Profit Analysis**: A chart shows PTA spot price in East China, cash - flow cost, and profit [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Although the downstream demand for PX is difficult to recover rapidly in the short term, driven by the cost of a sharp rise in upstream crude oil prices, combined with the concentrated maintenance of PX plants in the second quarter and the improvement of downstream polyester consumption, it is expected that the domestic PX futures will maintain a stable and fluctuating trend after the Spring Festival [2][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - The domestic PX supply side has entered a situation where the existing production capacity is fully utilized, there is a vacuum in new production capacity, and the supply elasticity has significantly narrowed. From 2024 - 2025, there will be no large - scale new PX plants put into production in China for two consecutive years. The current total production capacity is stable at about 44 million tons, and the effective operating capacity is about 42.5 million tons. In 2026, 4.1 million tons of new PX production capacity is planned to be added, but there will be no new production capacity released in the first half of the year [3] - Driven by high processing fees, domestic PX plants have been operating at a high level. As of the week of February 13, 2026, the domestic PX output was 758,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the domestic PX industry was 91.65%, a week - on - week increase of 1.78%, and the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Asian PX was 80.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.97% [3] - In the first quarter, the maintenance volume of domestic PX plants was limited, with an overall maintenance loss of about 326,700 tons, having a limited impact on the supply side. In the second quarter, large - scale plants such as Shenghong Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical will undergo concentrated maintenance, and the expected maintenance loss will reach 800,000 tons, and the expectation of supply contraction is gradually increasing [3] Demand Side - PX demand is highly dependent on the downstream PTA industry. Currently, the demand shows the characteristics of seasonal weakness, strong rigid demand support, and clear medium - term recovery. As of mid - February, the domestic PTA operating rate was 76.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09 percentage points, and the weekly average output was 1.462 million tons. It still maintained a medium - to - high operating rate, providing rigid demand support for PX [5][6] - In the short term, affected by the Spring Festival holiday effect, the polyester industry chain has entered the traditional off - season. As of mid - February, the domestic polyester operating rate dropped to 77.14%, a month - on - month decrease of 10.54 percentage points. The demand transmission to PX has been weakened. However, in the medium and long term, the domestic polyester production capacity will still maintain a growth rate of 3% - 9% in 2026. After the downstream resumes work in mid - to - late March, the polyester operating rate will quickly recover, driving PX demand to return to the growth channel [6] Market Situation - Affected by high supply and weak demand, the domestic PX has entered a seasonal inventory accumulation stage. In February, the inventory accumulation amplitude further expanded, the spot market had abundant circulating goods, the willingness of traders to stock up decreased, and the basis weakened [7] - The PX - naphtha spread has dropped from the previous high of $337/ton to $288/ton, and the processing fee has been significantly compressed. However, compared with the historical average, the current PX processing fee is still at a medium - to - high level, supporting domestic plants to maintain high - level operation [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Maintain a bullish view on precious metals, especially gold, while advising caution when participating in silver due to high speculative demand and increased volatility [1] - For black industry commodities, expect a slightly higher opening followed by a volatile trend, and recommend a wait - and - see approach [2][3] - For agricultural products, different varieties have different trends. For example, soybeans are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to export and production; corn is expected to be volatile in the short - term; oils and fats are expected to be weak; sugar is expected to be in a range - bound pattern; cotton can be bought on dips; eggs and hogs are expected to be weak [4][5] - For energy and chemical products, different products have different trading strategies. For example, LLDPE, PP, and EB are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, PX can be multi - allocated in the medium - term, PTA can take profit appropriately, MEG can be considered for phased long positions, and for crude oil, it is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04 [6][7][8] Summary by Directory Gold Market - Market performance: During the Spring Festival, gold prices first declined and then rose, with an over 2% single - day increase on February 20. Silver prices also rebounded after hitting the bottom, with a more than 7% single - day increase and breaking through $87 per ounce on Monday [1] - Fundamentals: Geopolitical premiums increased due to Trump's statement on military strikes and previous events. Policy uncertainties and trade - war concerns led to an influx of safe - haven funds. There were changes in gold and silver inventories and ETF holdings [1] - Trading strategy: Maintain a bullish view on precious metals, especially gold, and advise caution for silver [1] Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The rebar main contract 2605 closed at 3055 yuan/ton on the last trading day before the festival, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [2] - Fundamentals: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is not significant. The inventory of billets increased significantly during the festival. The valuation of rebar and hot - rolled coils is differentiated. External news is slightly positive [2] - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the reference range for RB05 being 3040 - 3100 [2] Iron Ore - Market performance: The iron ore main contract 2605 closed at 746 yuan/ton on the last trading day before the festival, down 13.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. Singapore swaps fell 1.3% to $96 per ton during the holiday [2] - Fundamentals: The supply - demand of iron ore is neutral. The iron - water output is basically the same year - on - year. The port inventory is close to 1.7 billion tons, and the structural contradiction persists. External news is slightly positive [2] - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the reference range for I05 being 735 - 765 [3] Coking Coal - Market performance: The coking coal main contract 2605 closed at 1121 yuan/ton on the last trading day before the festival, unchanged from the previous night - session closing price [3] - Fundamentals: Steel mills' profits are poor, and the blast - furnace output may decline slightly. The first round of price increases has been implemented, and there are no further plans. The overall inventory level is neutral, and the futures valuation is high. External news is slightly positive [3] - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the reference range for JM05 being 1090 - 1140 [3] Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market performance: The CBOT soybeans fell overnight, and there are concerns about US soybean exports [4] - Fundamentals: There is an expected bumper harvest in South America on the supply side. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, but there are potential concerns about exports due to tariff policies. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose [4] - Trading strategy: US soybeans will enter a volatile period, and attention should be paid to exports and South American production. The domestic market is also expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to customs policies and South American production [4] Corn - Market performance: The corn spot price rose slightly during the Spring Festival compared with before the festival [4] - Fundamentals: The grain - selling progress has exceeded 60%, and the pressure is not large. However, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain after the temperature rises. Downstream enterprises' inventories are at the same level as the same period, and the port inventories are low, but the downstream is in a loss state, and the enthusiasm for building inventories after the festival may be low [4] - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term as the purchase and sale have not fully recovered [4] Oils and Fats - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil is in a weak seasonal period in the short - term [4] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the Malaysian production in January decreased by 14% month - on - month. On the demand side, the export improved month - on - month, but ITS estimated that the export from February 1 - 20 decreased by 9% month - on - month. The supply - demand is weak in this stage [4] - Trading strategy: Oils and fats are weak. The resonance of the end of the weak seasonal production reduction and the biodiesel expectation is weakened. An anti - arbitrage structure strategy can be adopted. Attention should be paid to future production and biodiesel policies [4] Sugar - Market performance: The raw sugar first fell and then rose during the Spring Festival, and is in a range - bound pattern [4] - Fundamentals: Internationally, the pricing of the northern hemisphere's production increase has been completed. The domestic supply is more abundant, and the industrial inventory is expected to reach the highest level in recent years after March. However, it is affected by storage and quota policies [4] - Trading strategy: The price will maintain a range - bound pattern between 5000 - 5300 yuan/ton [4] Cotton - Market performance: The ICE US cotton futures price rose and then fell overnight, and the international crude oil futures price fluctuated upward [5] - Fundamentals: Internationally, there are concerns about tariff policies, which may affect global cotton exports. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price maintained an upward trend before the Spring Festival, and there was strong buying support below. The domestic spot basis was supported, and the sales progress slowed down before the festival [5] - Trading strategy: Buy on dips, with the price range reference of 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton [5] Eggs - Market performance: The egg spot price decreased during the Spring Festival compared with before the festival [5] - Fundamentals: After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season for egg demand. The overall supply is sufficient, and the egg price is expected to be low [5] - Trading strategy: The demand is weakening, and the futures price is expected to be volatile and weak. Industrial customers are advised to pay attention to hedging opportunities when the price is high [5] Hogs - Market performance: The national hog price mostly decreased during the Spring Festival compared with before the festival, with a larger decline in the north and stability in the south [5] - Fundamentals: According to the seasonal pattern, the slaughter volume will increase after the festival, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The spot and futures prices are expected to be weak [5] - Trading strategy: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to be volatile and weak [5] Energy and Chemical LLDPE - Market performance: The LLDPE main contract fluctuated slightly before the festival. The spot price in North China was 6530 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak. The overseas price was stable, and the import window was closed [6] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there are no new device productions in the first half of the year, and the domestic supply pressure eases. The import volume is expected to decrease slightly. On the demand side, the downstream is on holiday, and the demand is weak, but there will be a peak demand season in March and April [6] - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak. Due to the sharp rise in crude oil during the holiday, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, but the upward space is limited by the import window. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran event [6] PX and PTA - Market performance: The CFR PTA price in China was $926 per ton, and the East China spot price of PTA was 5180 yuan/ton before the festival, with a spot basis of - 73 yuan/ton [6] - Fundamentals: The overall supply of PX is at a historical high level. The supply of PTA is at a medium level. The polyester factory load is at a seasonal low, and the inventory pressure is not large. The profit of polyester products has improved. The supply - demand of PX and PTA accumulates inventory [6] - Trading strategy: Maintain a long - term multi - allocation view on PX and pay attention to buying opportunities. PTA accumulates inventory seasonally, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern improves. The processing fee has reached a high level, and appropriate profit - taking is recommended [6][7] PP - Market performance: The PP main contract fluctuated slightly before the festival. The spot price in East China was 6550 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak. The overseas price was stable, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [7] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the new device production decreases in the first half of the year, and the domestic supply gradually increases. On the demand side, the downstream is on holiday, and the start - up rate is low, and it will gradually resume work after the Lantern Festival [7] - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak. Due to the sharp rise in crude oil during the holiday, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, but the upward space is limited by the import window. In the long - term, the new device production decreases in the first half of the year, and the supply - demand pattern improves slightly but the contradiction is still large. It is recommended to short on rallies [7] MEG - Market performance: The East China spot price of MEG was 3675 yuan/ton before the festival, with a spot basis of - 105 yuan/ton [7] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the supply pressure eases. The inventory in some East China ports has accumulated to about 900,000 tons. The polyester load decreases seasonally, and the inventory pressure is not large. MEG accumulates inventory in February and reduces inventory in March [7] - Trading strategy: The inventory accumulation is fully expected, and it may start to reduce inventory in March. The current valuation is low, and attention should be paid to phased long - position opportunities [7] Crude Oil - Market performance: During the Spring Festival, the focus of foreign - market trading was on the US - Iran relationship. The oil price first fell and then rose [7] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the supply pressure of Russian oil increases, and the short - term core influence is the US - Iran geopolitical risk. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is large. On the demand side, the heating demand in the US increased in February but will decline in March, and the gasoline demand is in the off - season [7] - Trading strategy: Although the fundamentals are in surplus, the current trading focus is on the US - Iran geopolitical risk, with high uncertainty. It is recommended to wait for the oil price to reach a high point and buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04 [7] Styrene - Market performance: The styrene main contract fluctuated slightly before the festival. The spot price in East China was 7570 yuan/ton, and the trading atmosphere was average. The overseas price rose slightly, and the import window was closed [7][8] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the pure - benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level, and the supply - demand pattern will improve in February and March. The styrene inventory accumulates during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak in February and March. On the demand side, the downstream enterprises' finished - product inventory is high, and the start - up rate is low, and it will resume work after the Lantern Festival [7][8] - Trading strategy: In the short - term, due to the slight accumulation of pure - benzene inventory, the marginal improvement of supply - demand, and the sharp rise in crude oil during the holiday, it is expected to be slightly stronger. In the long - term, it is recommended to go long on styrene on dips in the second quarter [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest price data in January 2026 in China shows a mild recovery at a low level with structural differentiation, while the non - farm data in the US in January greatly exceeded expectations, leading to an adjustment of the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Domestic price repair depends on the optimization of "new supply" and the unblocking of the transmission chain in the middle and lower reaches. The economic opportunities from the visit and domestic growth - stabilizing policies may lead to a valuation repair of pro - cyclical sectors [2]. - In the short term, for the RMB exchange rate, pre - holiday seasonal settlement demand may support the RMB's appreciation, but after the holiday, its endogenous appreciation power may decline, and its linkage with the US dollar index may increase [3]. - For the stock index, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed, putting pressure on the stock index before the holiday. After the holiday, there may be opportunities for the IC contract [7]. - For the bond market, it is recommended to be cautious before the holiday, with a small amount of medium - term long positions in T2606 and to exit the March contract at high prices [8]. - For the container shipping European line, the market is in a small - scale shock, and funds are cautious. The spot price decline has slowed down, but there are still uncertainties in the market [11][12]. - For new energy products, the spot market for lithium carbonate is trading lightly, and it is recommended to sell volatility strategies before the holiday. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, due to high inventory, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty before the holiday [15][17]. - For non - ferrous metals, aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy may be in a shock adjustment. Copper may be weak in its rebound, zinc may be in a shock, nickel - stainless steel may be affected by quota disturbances, tin may be adjusted in a wide - range shock, and lead may fluctuate weakly [20][26][28]. - For oilseeds and fats, for oilseeds, there are few unilateral opportunities, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities. For fats, the domestic market has limited driving forces and is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [31][33]. - For energy and oil and gas, for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, due to geopolitical uncertainties, it is recommended to control positions before the holiday. For asphalt, its price may follow the cost - end crude oil, and there may be a decline after the holiday [35][37][39]. - For precious metals, for platinum and palladium, the long - term bull market foundation still exists, and it is recommended to buy in steps at low prices and control positions. For gold and silver, the long - term upward trend remains, and it is recommended to reduce or empty positions before the holiday [43][45]. - For chemical products, for pulp and offset paper, it is recommended to conduct range trading. For pure benzene - styrene, pay attention to cost - end fluctuations. For LPG, pay attention to geopolitical uncertainties. For PTA - PX, it is advisable to buy at low prices. For MEG - bottle chips, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. For methanol, it is recommended to be empty before the holiday. For plastics and PP, the short - term driving force is limited, and it is expected to be in a shock before the holiday. For rubber, it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday, and it is expected to be in a range - bound shock. For urea, it is recommended to be empty before the holiday. For glass and soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday. For propylene, pay attention to cost and risk [51][54][57][62][65][67][69][80][82][83][86]. - For black products, for rebar and hot - rolled coils, the price may be in a weak shock. For iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see cautiously before the holiday. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday. For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they are in a bottom - shock state [88][91][94][95]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, for live pigs, it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract. For cotton, it is expected to be in a shock in the short term. For sugar, the upward space is limited. For eggs, the main contract is expected to decline in a shock. For rubber, it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock. For apples, the short - term demand weakens, but the decline space is limited. For red dates, the short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure. For logs, it is recommended to wait and see [99][100][103][104][111][113][114][116]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's CPI and PPI data in January 2026 showed a mild recovery at a low level. The US non - farm data in January was strong, affecting the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Indonesia plans to cut the output of the world's largest nickel mine by 70%, and the US Congressional Budget Office expects the 2026 deficit to be $1.9 trillion [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US non - farm report in January was strong, delaying the market's expectations for the Fed's first interest rate cut. The RMB exchange rate was under the central bank's regulation and maintained a mild appreciation. Pre - holiday seasonal settlement demand may support the RMB's appreciation, but after the holiday, its endogenous appreciation power may decline [3]. - **Stock Index**: The Fed's interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed, putting pressure on the stock index before the holiday. After the holiday, there may be opportunities for the IC contract [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: It is recommended to be cautious before the holiday, with a small amount of medium - term long positions in T2606 and to exit the March contract at high prices [8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The market is in a small - scale shock, and funds are cautious. The spot price decline has slowed down, but there are still uncertainties in the market [11][12]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market is trading lightly. The downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly. It is recommended to sell volatility strategies before the holiday [15]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The market is in a wide - range shock. Due to high inventory, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty before the holiday [16][17]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The non - farm data in the US was better than expected, reducing the probability of interest rate cuts. The fundamentals of aluminum have not changed much, and it may be in a shock adjustment. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, and cast aluminum alloy may follow aluminum [20]. - **Copper**: The probability of a March interest rate cut has decreased, and the copper price's rebound is weak. It is recommended to hold a light position or wait and see before the holiday [20][23]. - **Zinc**: It follows the sector's adjustment, and the non - farm data suppresses the price. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock [26]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is affected by quota disturbances. The market is in a supply - demand double - weak situation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of capital withdrawal before the holiday [27][28]. - **Tin**: Its price is mainly driven by the macro situation and is expected to be in a wide - range shock adjustment [29][30]. - **Lead**: It follows the sector's fluctuation and is expected to be in a weak shock [30]. Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: The external market of US soybeans is strong in the short - term, and the domestic soybean meal may rebound in the short - term but may be restricted by new supplies in the long - term. There are few unilateral opportunities, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [31]. - **Fats**: The domestic market has limited driving forces. The palm oil market needs to observe the de - stocking process, the soybean oil has support from policies, and the rapeseed oil supply is loose. It is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [32][33]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: It opened high and went high. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is being repaired, and the demand is weak in some areas. The logic is mainly related to geopolitics, and it is recommended to control positions before the holiday [35]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cost has increased, and it opened high and went high. The supply is relatively abundant in the short - term, the demand is stable, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday [36][37]. - **Asphalt**: Its price increase is weak. The demand has reached the freezing point before the holiday, and it may follow the cost - end crude oil. There may be a decline after the holiday [38][39]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The long - term bull market foundation still exists. It is recommended to buy in steps at low prices and control positions. Pay attention to the impact of Fed officials' speeches and relevant events [43]. - **Gold and Silver**: The long - term upward trend remains, but the short - term operation is difficult. It is recommended to reduce or empty positions before the holiday [45]. Chemical Products - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp market is relatively neutral, and the offset paper futures may be in a range - bound shock. It is recommended to conduct range trading [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pay attention to cost - end fluctuations. The supply of pure benzene increases, and the demand is flat. The supply of styrene will increase in February, and the demand will decrease during the Spring Festival [54][55]. - **LPG**: There are still uncertainties in geopolitics. The supply is neutral - low, and the demand is at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to risk management before the holiday [56][57]. - **PTA - PX**: It benefits from the good supply - demand structure of PX. The first quarter may see inventory accumulation, and the second quarter may be in short supply. It is advisable to buy at low prices [59][62]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The demand is seasonally weak, and the supply - demand balance has improved. It is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [63][65]. - **Methanol**: It follows geopolitics and non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to be empty before the holiday [66][67]. - **Plastics and PP**: The short - term driving force is limited. PE has a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and PP has limited supply pressure in the short - term. It is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [68][69]. - **Rubber**: It rose and then fell, with synthetic rubber leading the decline. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock [72][80]. - **Urea**: It is in a stage of over - supply due to new capacity release. The 05 contract may have a price increase expectation, but it is recommended to exit long positions and be empty before the holiday [81][82]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, the demand is expected to weaken, and it is in a weak shock. For glass, there may be concentrated cold repairs before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [83][84]. - **Propylene**: The fundamentals still have support, but the cost has uncertainties. Pay attention to cost, supply - demand, and risk [85][86]. Black Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The price may be in a weak shock. The supply is relatively strong compared to the demand, and the inventory is accumulating. The price may test the lower limit of the shock range [88][89]. - **Iron Ore**: The overall supply - demand is weak, and the iron water is expected to rise. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously before the holiday [90][91]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There are many disturbances in the overseas market, and the domestic driving force is insufficient. Pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday [92][94]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: They are in a bottom - shock state. The cost provides support, but the downstream inventory accumulation and high inventory of ferromanganese put pressure on the price [95]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The futures price has rebounded, and it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract [98][99]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to be in a shock in the short term. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the external - internal cotton price difference restricts the upward space [99][100]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is weak, and the domestic sugar's upward space is limited [101][103]. - **Eggs**: The main contract is expected to decline in a shock. The pre - holiday demand has weakened, and the supply is sufficient [104]. - **Rubber**: It rose and then fell, with synthetic rubber leading the decline. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock [104][111]. - **Apples**: The pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the short - term demand weakens, but the decline space is limited [112][113]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure due to sufficient supply [114]. - **Logs**: The liquidity is insufficient, and the industry is optimistic about the post - holiday market. It is recommended to wait and see [115][116].

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The global macro - market last week was affected by multiple variables. The reconstruction of global liquidity expectations, policy and event disturbances in core economies, and the intensification of monetary policy differentiation were the core logics. Four major variables, including the Japanese election, weak US employment, China's pro - growth policies, and Australia's interest rate hike, dominated the market game, leading to high volatility in multiple sectors [2] - Short - term market trends will be verified by a series of events such as the Japanese election results, US key economic data, and China's inflation and consumption performance. The long - term trend is related to the US AI strategy, China's industrial and investment development, global key raw material strategic reserve logic, and the background of persistent differential inflation and monetary policies [2] Group 2: Financial Futures Macro - In the Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8, the ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party won a majority of seats. The Bank of Canada Governor said that if Canada loses preferential trade access to the US through the USMCA, its economy may fall into recession, but this is not the central bank's baseline scenario. The Japanese Finance Minister said it's not easy to use foreign exchange reserves for tax cuts and spending, and the Japanese Prime Minister will consider reducing the consumption tax [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB appreciated against the US dollar in the previous trading day. The RMB's short - term movement against the US dollar is affected by seasonal settlement demand and the US dollar index. Exporters are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and importers can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at around 6.93 [3][4] Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated and adjusted last trading day. Short - term (before the Spring Festival), it is expected to remain volatile, and large - cap stock indices may be relatively dominant. Attention should be paid to the release of US non - farm payroll data and domestic CPI data [5] Treasury Bonds - Last week, bond futures rose overall. Whether the bond market can continue to rise this week depends on whether trading sentiment can be maintained. It is recommended to shift mid - line long positions during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high prices [6] Group 3: Commodities New Energy Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate futures prices fell sharply. Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment is over, and it is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the holiday. High volatility in the lithium carbonate futures market presents an opportunity to sell volatility [9] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand. In February, production schedules will decline, and inventory reduction is the main task. Industrial silicon prices may continue to decline [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a support level of 23000 - 23500. It is recommended to build long positions or sell options at the support level. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, but there are short - term disturbances. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to aluminum, and attention can be paid to its price difference with aluminum [15][16] Copper - Copper prices had high volatility last week. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to focus on short - term range operations and be cautious about chasing up or selling down [19] Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Before the Spring Festival, supply and demand are both weak. It is recommended to pay attention to this week's employment data, as weak data may support prices [20] Nickel - Stainless Steel - Nickel - stainless steel had a deep correction this week, mainly affected by the overall market and macro - level sentiment. The supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the quota release rhythm and Indonesian downstream layout [20][21] Tin - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to this week's US employment and CPI data. Weak data may support non - ferrous metal prices [23] Lead - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lack of upward drive before the Spring Festival [23] Oils and Fats, and Feeds Oilseeds - The external market of soybeans is strong, while the domestic market is weak. It is recommended to lightly try long positions, but the upside is limited [24][25] Oils and Fats - Before the Spring Festival, funds flowed out of the oils and fats market, which is expected to be weakly volatile. It is not recommended to short, and selling put options can be considered [26] Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is operating weakly. Although the supply shortage has been alleviated, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to geopolitical uncertainties [28] Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is abundant, the demand is stable, and the inventory decline has a slight positive impact on the cracking spread [29][30] Asphalt - Asphalt's upward trend is weak. Before the Spring Festival, demand drops to zero. The future trend will follow the cost - end crude oil, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors and inventory pressure after the Spring Festival [30][31] Precious Metals Platinum & Palladium - Platinum and palladium prices fluctuated sharply. In the long - term, the bull market foundation remains. High volatility requires attention to position control [33][35] Gold & Silver - Gold and silver prices fluctuated sharply last week. In the short - term, operation is difficult, but the long - term upward trend remains. It is recommended to buy on dips in installments and control positions. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [36][39] Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - Pulp futures prices are expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to partially close short positions, conduct short - term range trading, or lightly try short - term long - buying strategies. Offset paper futures can return to range trading [41][42] LPG - LPG prices are affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is neutral, and the demand from PDH is low. Attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [43][44] PTA - PX - PX - PTA's valuation is returning to the fundamentals. PX is in short supply in the second quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips. PTA's high processing fees are difficult to maintain, and it is recommended to shrink the processing fees on the disk [45][48] MEG - Bottle Chips - Ethylene glycol's demand weakens seasonally. The supply - demand balance improves in the first half of the year. It is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [49][50] Methanol - It is recommended to hold an empty position during the Spring Festival. Methanol prices follow geopolitical and non - ferrous metal trends, and the trading is difficult [51][53] Plastic PP - Polyolefin prices are affected by macro - sentiment and cost. PE shows a trend of decreasing supply and increasing demand, and PP shows a pattern of decreasing supply and demand. Short - term attention should be paid to macro - atmosphere changes and the Iran - US conflict [54][55] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene's supply increases and demand is flat. Styrene's supply will increase in February, and demand will decline during the Spring Festival. Short - term geopolitical factors and exports support prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [56][57] Urea - Urea is in a stage of over - supply. The 05 contract has an expected price increase, but the short - term price may correct. It is recommended to close long positions and hold an empty position during the Spring Festival [58][59] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is oscillating weakly, and the supply is expected to remain high in the long - term. Glass has a weak supply - demand pattern and is at risk of high intermediate inventory [60][63] Propylene - Propylene prices are affected by cost, supply and demand, and market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals provide some support, but attention should be paid to risks [63][64] Black Metals Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil - Rebar's inventory is accumulating, and hot - rolled coil's inventory is changing from decreasing to increasing. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to whether they break through the lower limit of the oscillation range [65][67] Iron Ore - The supply and demand of iron ore are both weak. The port inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously before the Spring Festival [68] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply is seasonally shrinking, and coke's supply and demand are both recovering. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills [69][70] Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern between cost support and downstream inventory pressure. Ferrosilicon's fundamentals are slightly better [71] Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig market is operating weakly. It is recommended to short the 03 contract and long the 05 contract in terms of the spread strategy [73][74] Cotton - Cotton prices are affected by macro - sentiment. The domestic cotton price is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream imports and new orders [75][76] Sugar - The domestic sugar demand is average, and the international raw sugar price is weak, dragging down the domestic sugar price. The upside space is limited [77][78] Eggs - The pre - holiday stocking demand for eggs has ended. It is recommended to sell the JD2603 - C - 3100 call option [79][80] Apples - Apple's pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end. The consumption peak logic is almost realized. The price is supported by delivery contradictions and is likely to rise rather than fall [81][82] Red Dates - Red dates' pre - holiday purchase and sales are slowing down. In the short - term, the price may remain low - oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure [83]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, PTA prices declined. TA2605 closed at 5,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 178 yuan/ton or 3.27%. At the end of the year, terminal demand weakened, loom operating rates steadily declined, and polyester load dropped to the lowest point of the year. In February, there may be no new PTA maintenance plans, and the supply - demand outlook for PTA is weak, with a significant inventory build - up expected. Crude oil weakened, leading to the decline of PTA [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of PTA has slightly weakened. In February, there may be no new PTA maintenance plans. Around the Spring Festival, the terminal will have holidays, and polyester load will drop to the lowest point of the year. The supply - demand outlook for PTA is weak, with a significant inventory build - up expected. From the cost side, the Zhonghua Quanzhou PX plant restarted at the end of January, and there are no maintenance plans in February. With high PX profits, it is expected that the PX load in Asia and China will operate at a high level in February. Currently, oil prices are generally at a high level, and the crude oil supply - demand pattern is still weak. If geopolitical risks do not expand further, oil prices have a downward pressure, and the cost side may drag down PTA. Geopolitical risks should be monitored in February [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, PTA declined. TA2605 closed at 5,270 yuan/ton, down 178 yuan/ton or 3.27%. Terminal demand weakened at the end of the year, loom operating rates declined, and polyester load dropped to the annual low. In February, PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, with significant inventory build - up. Crude oil weakened, causing PTA to fall [2]. Key Concerns - Factors to watch include polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trends [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | PTA - related Index | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA Futures (Continuous) | yuan/ton | 5,270.00 | 5,400.00 | - 130.00 | - 2.41% | Daily | | PTA Output | 10,000 tons | 142.87 | 139.28 | 3.59 | 2.58% | Weekly | | Polyester Chip Operating Rate | % | 81.71 | 85.52 | - 3.81 | - 4.46% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom Operating Rate | % | 42.41 | 51.20 | - 8.79 | - 17.17% | Weekly | | PXN | yuan/ton | 316 | 357 | - 41.00 | - 11.48% | Daily | | PTA Cash - flow Cost | yuan/ton | 5,050 | 5,120 | - 70.00 | - 1.37% | Daily | [4] PX Market - There are figures showing PX futures closing prices, PX ex - factory prices in East China, PX CIF prices in Taiwan, CFR naphtha prices in Japan and their spreads, PX and MX prices in Taiwan and their spreads, and MX FOB prices in South Korea and the US Gulf and their spreads [8][9][10]. PX Supply - There are figures presenting PX production in Asia and China, PX monthly import volume and its year - on - year change, PX operating rates in China and Asia, and PX inventory [13][15][17]. PTA Market - There is a figure showing PTA futures closing prices (continuous) and the mainstream price in East China [20]. PTA Supply - There are figures showing PTA monthly output, PTA operating rate, and PTA social inventory [22][26]. PTA Consumption - There are figures showing PTA export volume, monthly output of polyester filament and staple fiber, operating rates of polyester chips, polyester filament and staple fiber, and loom operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [27][29][32]. Cost - Profit Analysis - There is a figure showing PTA spot price in East China, PTA cash - flow cost, and PTA profit [38].