Core Viewpoint - The development of the polyester industry chain relies heavily on the support of futures tools, which enhance price discovery and risk management capabilities for enterprises in the sector [2][3]. Group 1: Development of Polyester Futures Market - The first chemical futures product, PTA futures, was launched in 2006 at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, providing essential risk management tools for the polyester industry [3]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has successfully launched eight futures and options products, including PTA, short fiber, PX, and bottle chips, creating a comprehensive risk management toolset for the polyester industry [4]. - The overall market operation of polyester futures has been stable, effectively guiding production planning, managing price volatility risks, and stabilizing operations for enterprises [3][4]. Group 2: Internationalization and Market Participation - As of July 2025, there are 760 foreign clients from over 30 countries and regions participating in the Chinese futures market, indicating strong international trust and engagement [7]. - The introduction of a delivery system for PTA export-type vehicles and the optimization of hedging mechanisms have enhanced the ability of domestic enterprises to manage risks and stabilize profits [4][5]. - The integration of futures tools into daily operations of polyester enterprises has improved their operational resilience and competitiveness in the global market [10]. Group 3: Future Directions and Strategies - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to refine existing products, expand international openness, and enhance industry services to further support the manufacturing sector [5]. - The exchange aims to deepen collaboration with industry stakeholders to better understand and address the operational challenges faced by enterprises [5]. - Continuous monitoring and regulation of market operations will be emphasized to ensure stable functioning of the futures market [5].

目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 5 聚酯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 综合分析与交易策略 | 品种 | 逻辑分析 | 交易策略 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周PX期货价格震荡整理，PX现货浮动价走弱，基差月差压缩。近期威联化学一套100万吨PX和韩国SKGC一套 | | | | 40万吨/年PX检修装置重启，8月下到9月初福化集团160万吨/年PX装置计划重启，大榭石化160万吨PX本月计划 | | | | 提负，福佳大化一套70万吨/年PX装置计划9月检修，PX供应整体呈上升态势，PX长短流程装置利润良好。 | 单边：震荡整理 | | PX&P | | 套利：观望 | | TA | PTA本周供需双增，社会库存继续上升，PTA月差延续走弱。贸易商9月商谈增多，基差小幅走强。供应方面，近 | 期权：双卖期权 | | | 期PTA嘉兴石化220万吨、威联化学250万吨检修装置如期重启，逸盛大连225万吨、逸盛海南200万吨、台化兴业 | | | | 一套150万吨、独山能源一套250万吨PTA装 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [6]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [12]. - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs and manage positions carefully [14][15]. - Crude oil prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to temporarily observe the main crude oil contract [22][23]. - For fuel oil, it is advisable to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [26]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for it to stabilize and participate in the rebound [28]. - For natural rubber, consider going long after a pull - back [31]. - PVC will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [32]. - Urea will fluctuate in the short - term and is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [35]. - PX will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [36]. - PTA may have a pull - back adjustment in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [37]. - Ethylene glycol may be suppressed by short - term supply increases, and interval trading is advisable, paying attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - Short - fiber may fluctuate with costs in the short - term, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39]. - Bottle - grade chips are expected to fluctuate with the cost side [41]. - For soda ash, pay attention to controlling positions due to the increase in supply and weak demand [42]. - For glass, go short in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling positions due to capital - side disturbances before contract roll - over [43]. - For caustic soda, the price is expected to stabilize, and attention should be paid to the impact of imported ore on consumption and prices [45]. - For pulp, the supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is of uncertain sustainability, and there is a game between high inventory and macro - sentiment [47]. - For lithium carbonate, the trading logic has shifted, and it is advisable for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [49]. - For copper, pay attention to buying opportunities for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. - Tin and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [54][55]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider exiting long positions at stage highs and then look for long - entry opportunities after adjustment [57]. - For palm oil, consider reducing long positions and holding them lightly [60]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider reducing long positions and holding them [62]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [65]. - Sugar is recommended to be observed, showing interval - based fluctuations [69][70]. - Apple futures are expected to be affected by increased production [71]. - For live pigs, consider a reverse - spread strategy [74]. - For eggs, consider gradually taking profits on the 9 - 10 reverse spread [77]. - Corn prices have support at lower levels in the short - term and pressure at higher levels, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - Log prices are expected to be supported by bullish sentiment in the short - term [83]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 238 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 116 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long [8][9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US retail sales data was stable, and the "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly declined. Policy changes dominate the market in the short - term, and the prices are expected to be determined by supply - demand fundamentals in the medium - term. The real estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly pulled back. Policy is the dominant factor, and iron ore prices follow coking coal. The high demand for hot metal supports prices, but the supply has increased. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and sorted. Policy affects supply, and prices may continue to adjust in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [17]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. Manganese ore supply and prices have changed, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The supply is excessive, and investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels [19][20]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upwards and was blocked by the 5 - day moving average. The "Double - Putin" talks and CFTC data indicate that crude oil prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to temporarily observe [21][22]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downwards. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market shows signs of improvement, but the supply in Singapore is still excessive. It is advisable to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Losses have increased, supply has decreased, and the market sentiment is positive. Wait for it to stabilize and participate in the rebound [27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The macro - market sentiment has warmed up, and supply - side disruptions continue. Consider going long after a pull - back [29][31]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. It will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [32]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures closed flat. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it will fluctuate. It is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [33][35]. PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The supply has increased, and the cost support is weak. It will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has slightly increased, demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is weak. It may have a pull - back adjustment in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply has increased, and the port inventory has accumulated. It may be suppressed by short - term supply increases, and interval trading is advisable [38]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, demand has improved, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may fluctuate with costs in the short - term [39]. Bottle - Grade Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - grade chips futures rose. The supply has decreased due to maintenance, and demand has recovered. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [40][41]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline. Pay attention to controlling positions [42]. Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures declined. The inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and demand is weak. Go short in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling positions due to capital - side disturbances [43]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. Supply has little change, and inventory has decreased. The use of imported ore may affect consumption and prices, and the price is expected to stabilize [44][45]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures rose slightly. The supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is of uncertain sustainability. The inventory is high, and the price rebound space is limited [46][47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The trading logic has shifted, and it is advisable for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [48][49]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper slightly fluctuated. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Pay attention to buying opportunities [51][52]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The ore supply is tight, and the market expects the tin ore to resume production in the fourth quarter. The supply is still in short supply, and the price is expected to fluctuate [54]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The ore price has weakened, the inventory has increased, and the demand is weak. The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures declined. The USDA report lowered the US soybean planting area. The domestic soybean supply is loose, and the import cost has increased. Consider exiting long positions at stage highs and then look for long - entry opportunities after adjustment [56][57]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rose. The export volume in the first half of August increased. The domestic palm oil inventory has accumulated. Consider reducing long positions and holding them lightly [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures rose. China imposed anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed supply may be tight in the short - term. Consider reducing long positions and holding them [61][62]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The US and global cotton supply - demand reports were favorable. The domestic cotton inventory has decreased, and textile exports have declined. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [63][65]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production has accelerated, and Thailand and India are expected to have a bumper harvest. The domestic inventory is low, but imports will be high before October. It is recommended to observe [67][69]. Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The expected apple production increase has been confirmed. The inventory has decreased, and the price of early - maturing apples has declined [71]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the national average live - pig price declined. The supply in the north has increased, and the price is expected to be observed. The supply in the south is stable. The supply will increase in August, and it is advisable to consider a reverse - spread strategy [73][74]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the egg price rose slightly. The cost is high, and the inventory has increased. The supply in August is expected to increase, and consider gradually taking profits on the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][77]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The new - season corn is expected to have a bumper harvest, and the price has pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market [78][80]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures rose. The expected arrival of New Zealand logs has decreased, and the inventory has declined. The trading volume has increased, and the price is expected to be supported by bullish sentiment in the short - term [81][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide a specific overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry. However, individual product outlooks suggest a mix of trends, with many products expected to be in a state of "oscillation" or "oscillation with a downward bias" in the short - term [9][11][13]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The IEA monthly report indicates that in 2026, the global oil surplus will reach a record high due to slowed demand growth and increased supply. The oil market is currently under pressure, and the chemical industry chain is likely to face an oversupply situation. High - inventory varieties may experience a small - scale adjustment, and the future demand trend will determine the performance of the January contracts [2][3]. - The stock market is performing strongly, while the oil market is weak. The seasonal peak of global aviation kerosene demand is about to subside, which has a negative impact on medium - distillate products [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs A. Market Overview - **Crude Oil**: International crude oil futures are in a state of oscillatory consolidation. Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure still exists. The EIA data shows that the demand at the refinery level in the US in the week of August 8th was relatively strong, but the overall inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased, which is bearish. The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15th may reduce concerns about Russian oil supply and the geopolitical premium [2][9]. - **Stock Market**: The US stock market has soared to a record high due to mild inflation data, and the stock markets in other regions of the world are also performing well [2]. B. Product - Specific Analysis - **Asphalt**: It has fallen below the important support level of 3500 yuan. The futures price is moving in the direction of least resistance. The increase in OPEC+ production, potential tariff hikes, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are all negative factors. The demand for asphalt is not optimistic, and its valuation is relatively high [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a weak oscillatory state. The increase in supply due to OPEC+ production hikes, the increase in import tariffs in China, weak demand in the US gasoline and Middle - East power - generation sectors, and the weakening of the three driving factors (Russia - Ukraine conflict, local refinery procurement, and the Palestine - Israel conflict) all contribute to the supply - demand imbalance [11][12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its futures price is oscillating weakly following the trend of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy and high - sulfur fuel oil, and the increase in domestic refined - oil supply pressure [13]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and it is in an oscillatory state. The production profit is relatively high, but the downstream olefins are under pressure due to the decline in oil prices. There may be opportunities for long - positions in the far - month contracts [29]. - **Urea**: Supported by orders and market sentiment, the futures price has temporarily stabilized and strengthened. The supply - side maintenance has slowed down, and the daily production is at a high level. The market is mainly supported by pending orders and macro - sentiment, and its future trend depends on actual demand [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The cost support has weakened, and the price is in an oscillatory state. The supply change is limited, and the downstream polyester load is stable, but the overall sales performance is poor [22][23]. - **PX**: The cost support has weakened again, and the entire polyester chain is in a downward trend. The supply pressure continues, and the cost support in the short - term has weakened. The short - term price will fluctuate at a low level following the upstream cost [15]. - **PTA**: The cost support has weakened, the sales performance is mediocre, and the warehouse - receipt pressure has increased. The supply has increased while the demand has weakened, and the short - term price will follow the cost for low - level consolidation [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and inventory replenishment is cautious. The upstream raw material price has declined, the cost support is weak, and the short - term price will oscillate at a low level [25][26]. - **Bottle Chips**: The cost support has weakened, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The upstream polymerization cost support has declined, and the overall supply - demand situation has changed little [26][27]. - **PP**: Supply still exists, and it is in an oscillatory state. The coal and oil markets have an impact on it. The supply side is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - peak to peak season transition, with a slow increase in downstream开工 [35][36]. - **Propylene**: Supported by spot maintenance, the PP - PL spread around 600 yuan is considered reasonable, and PL is in a short - term oscillatory state. The PDH enterprises in some areas are under maintenance, and the spot market is temporarily stable [36]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased. It is in an oscillatory state. Oil prices are oscillating weakly, the macro - level has capital games, the supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in a slow transition from the off - season to the peak season [33][34]. - **Pure Benzene**: The import volume has decreased, and downstream production capacity has been put into operation. The buying sentiment has increased, and the market structure has changed to Back. The port inventory has decreased, which has boosted market sentiment, and the short - term fundamentals are okay [17][20]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand outlook is still weak. Attention should be paid to the accumulation of factory inventory. The cost support from pure benzene is limited, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak [20][22]. - **PVC**: The cost provides support, and the futures price is oscillating. The macro - policy orientation needs to be concerned. The production is expected to increase, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the cost is expected to rise [39]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and the market is cautiously optimistic. The macro - policy orientation needs to be concerned. The fundamentals have improved marginally, with increased demand from the alumina industry, improved export orders, and high - level production [40]. C. Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides inter - period spread data for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing different trends of change [41]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes basis and warehouse - receipt data for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices and the inventory situation [42]. - **Inter - product Spread**: Data on inter - product spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are presented, which helps in analyzing the relative valuation between different products [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The long - term view on oil prices is bearish, with Brent expected to trade in the range of $66.5 - 68 per barrel in the short term. The overall supply - demand pressure for plastics and PP remains large, and their prices are expected to be weak and volatile. PVC and caustic soda also face supply - demand pressure, and short positions are recommended. For some products like fuel oil, a wait - and - see approach is advised, while for others, different trading strategies such as short - selling at high prices are proposed according to their supply - demand situations [2][22][24] Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2509 contract closed at $64.35, down $0.81 per barrel (-1.24%); Brent2510 contract closed at $66.89, down $0.75 per barrel (-1.11%); SC main contract 2509 fell 4.9 to 504.2 yuan per barrel, and dropped 6.2 to 498 yuan per barrel in the night session. The Brent main - second line spread was $0.61 per barrel [1] - **Related News**: US - Russia negotiations are progressing, and there is uncertainty in geopolitical conflicts. Trump may meet with Putin next week, and the US plans to impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. Trump also announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods and may impose further tariffs on China. Some Fed officials believe in interest rate cuts due to economic and labor market conditions. EIA data shows a decline in US crude and refined product inventories [1][2] - **Logic Analysis**: Long - term bearish view on oil prices due to increasing risk of US economic weakness and sufficient supply elasticity, with an expectation of future supply - demand surplus. Brent is expected to trade in the $66.5 - 68 per barrel range in the short term [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Gasoline crack spread is weak, diesel crack spread is stable; Options: Wait - and - see [3] 2. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3543 points (+0.40%) in the night session, BU2512 closed at 3448 points (+0.207%). On August 6, asphalt spot prices were 3530 - 3970 in Shandong, 3650 - 3800 in East China, and 3520 - 3600 in South China. The benchmark prices of refined products in Shandong changed, with 92 gasoline down 17 to 7727 yuan per ton, 0 diesel down 14 to 6563 yuan per ton, and 3B petroleum coke up 60 to 2880 yuan per ton [3] - **Related News**: Shandong market prices fell 5 yuan per ton due to slow demand release, sufficient supply, and weak market confidence. In the Yangtze River Delta, prices were stable due to rainy weather and falling oil prices. In South China, prices were stable with some trade - offs between weak demand and reduced local supply [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and near - term demand is mediocre. The asphalt market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of demand release in the second half of the year. Oil prices are expected to be weak in the short term and decline in the medium term. Asphalt prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with the main BU contract trading in the 3500 - 3650 range [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; Options: Wait - and - see [5] 3. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2836 (+0.60%) in the night session, LU10 closed at 3558 (+0.65%). In the Singapore paper market, high - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 5.0 to 5.3 dollars per ton, and low - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 4.3 to 3.5 dollars per ton [5] - **Related News**: Nigeria's Dangote refinery plans to shut down its RFCC unit for 15 - day maintenance starting from August 10. On August 6, there were 3 transactions of high - sulfur fuel oil 380 in the Singapore spot window, and no transactions for high - sulfur fuel oil 180 and low - sulfur fuel oil [5][6] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain high, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly reduced. Demand for high - sulfur feedstock is increasing, while seasonal power - generation demand is declining. Low - sulfur supply is increasing, and downstream demand lacks a specific driver [7][8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait - and - see, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - economic disturbances; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see, pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot [8] 4. PX (Para - xylene) - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6794 (+60/+0.89%), and remained unchanged in the night session. The September MOPJ was estimated at $579 per ton CFR. PX prices rose to $844 per ton, up $5 from the previous day. Two September Asian spot transactions were at 848 and 849 respectively. The PXN was $265 per ton, up $6 per ton [8][9] - **Related News**: According to CCF statistics, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were partially strong, with an average sales rate of 4 - 5% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved, with an average sales rate of 71% by 3:00 pm [9] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to return in August as some refineries resume production or increase their loads. Downstream PTA plants are reducing production, and the overall order volume is weak, so PX prices are expected to face pressure [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation [10] 5. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4724 (+42/+0.90%), and dropped 10 to 4714 (-0.21%) in the night session. In the spot market, August - end contracts were traded at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract, with a price negotiation range of 4650 - 4720. The September - mid contracts were traded at par with the 09 contract. The mainstream spot basis was 09 - 21 [10] - **Related News**: Similar to PX, the sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed certain trends. A South China PTA factory with a total capacity of 235 million tons cut production by 20% [10] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is decreasing as some PTA plants cut production or plan maintenance. Downstream demand lacks upward momentum, so PTA prices are expected to face pressure [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [11][12] 6. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4414 (+15/+0.34%), and rose 17 to 4431 (+0.39%) in the night session. The current spot basis was a premium of 79 - 82 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4493 - 4496 yuan per ton. The September - end futures basis was a premium of 76 - 78 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4490 - 4492 yuan per ton [13] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were as described before. A 90 - million - ton/year MEG plant in Singapore is under maintenance for about 45 days, and a 55 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia shut down again without a clear restart time [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Port inventory has decreased recently. Supply is expected to increase as some plants restart or postpone their maintenance. The supply - demand balance is expected to weaken as domestic and foreign plants resume production [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [13][14] 7. Short - fiber - **Market Review**: PF2510 main contract closed at 6414 (+32/+0.50%) during the day session, and dropped 14 to 6400 (-0.22%) in the night session. In the spot market, the prices of direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were stable, and downstream customers purchased on - demand [14][15] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed similar trends [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber futures rebounded with raw materials. The processing fee stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [15] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16] 8. PR (Bottle - chip) - **Market Review**: PR2510 main contract closed at 5936 (+24/+0.41%), and dropped 2 to 5934 (-0.03%) in the night session. In the spot market, the polyester bottle - chip market had good transactions, with some plants having large - volume sales. August - October orders were mostly traded at 5870 - 5970 yuan per ton ex - factory [16] - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factories' export quotes were mostly stable, with some slightly increasing [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The bottle - chip futures rose with polyester raw material futures. The processing fee rebounded and stabilized. Most major plants will maintain their production cuts in August, so the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16][17] 9. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6246 (+26/+0.42%) during the day session, and rose 24 to 6270 (+0.38%) in the night session. EB2509 main contract closed at 7285 (+3/+0.04%) during the day session, and rose 29 to 7314 (+0.40%) in the night session. In the spot market, the negotiation range of pure benzene in East China was 6030 - 6060 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous day. The negotiation ranges of styrene in Jiangsu were 7310 - 7380 for spot, 7360 - 7405 for August - end, and 7385 - 7435 for September - end [18] - **Related News**: On August 6, 2025, the port trade inventory of pure benzene in East China was 15.2 million tons, down 1 million tons from July 30 (-6.17%), and up 204% year - on - year. The total inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased by 1.05 million tons to 15.05 million tons. A 30 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Tangshan Xuyang restarted on August 6, and an 80 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Guangdong Jieyang plans to shut down for two - week maintenance starting from September 5. A 67 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Jingbosidarei started producing qualified products on August 6 and is operating at a stable load [18][19] - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene supply is expected to be in a relatively balanced state, with a de - stocking expectation in the third quarter. Styrene supply is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Long pure benzene, short styrene; Options: Sell both call and put options [21] 10. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: In the plastic spot market, LLDPE prices mostly rose slightly. In the PP spot market, the prices in different regions had different changes [21] - **Related News**: On August 6, the PE maintenance ratio was 8.8%, up 0.4 percentage points, and the linear production ratio was 40.3%, down 1.3 percentage points. The PP maintenance ratio was 15.7%, down 0.5 percentage points, and the拉丝 production ratio was 33.9%, up 4 percentage points [21] - **Logic Analysis**: New polyolefin capacities are being put into production, and there is still capacity - expansion pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and there is no obvious factor to improve the supply - demand situation. So, the overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile. Pay attention to new plant start - ups and macro - policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [22] 11. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: In the PVC spot market, prices rose, but the trading was light. In the caustic soda spot market, the prices in different regions were mostly stable [22] - **Related News**: A Shandong alumina factory lowered the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 10 yuan per ton. Jinling's caustic soda prices decreased [24] - **Logic Analysis**: For PVC, the supply is expected to increase as new plants are planned to start production, and the demand is weak, so the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. For caustic soda, the supply - demand pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be bearish [24][25] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions for both PVC and caustic soda, and pay attention to subsequent policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [25][26] 12. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1271 yuan per ton (+18/1.4%), and dropped 10 to 1261 (-0.8%) in the night session. The SA9 - 1 spread was - 97 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [26] - **Related News**: As of August 4, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 185.18 million tons, up 5.60 million tons (+3.12%) from the previous Thursday. Some plants had production changes [26] - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash futures price strengthened due to the strong coking coal futures price and rising coal prices. The weekly production decreased, and the inventory decreased. The demand is weak, but the price is expected to be supported by cost factors in the second half of the year [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile and bullish; Arbitrage: Consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [27][28] 13. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 09 contract closed at 1083 yuan per ton (+6/0.56%), and dropped 8 to 1075 (-0.74%) in the night session. The 9 - 1 spread was - 148 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [28] - **Related News**: The domestic float - glass market prices were stable or decreased, and the trading was lackluster [28] - **Logic Analysis**: The glass futures price was affected by the strong coking coal futures price. The factory's sales weakened, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to be determined by fundamentals in the second half of the year, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [29][30] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Volatile; Arbitrage: Take profit on the glass 9 - 1 reverse spread, and consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [31] 14. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2395 (-2/-0.08%) after night - session trading. In the spot market, the prices in different regions varied [31] - **Related News**: As of August

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - High-level oscillation; Coal and Coke - Oscillation with an upward bias; Rebar - High-level oscillation; Glass - Adjustment; Soda Ash - Adjustment [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Composite 50 - Rebound; CSI 300 - Oscillation; CSI 500 - Oscillation; CSI 1000 - Upward movement; 2-year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 5-year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 10-year Treasury Bond - Upward movement; Gold - High-level oscillation; Silver - High-level oscillation [2][3] - **Light Industry**: Pulp - Weak operation; Logs - Oscillation; Edible Oils - Oscillation with an upward bias; Meal - Oscillation; Soybean No. 2 - Oscillation; Soybean No. 1 - Oscillation; Live Pigs - Oscillation with a downward bias [5][6][7] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber - Oscillation; PX - Watch; PTA - Watch; MEG - Watch; PR - Watch; PF - Watch [10][11] 2. Core Views - The short - term manufacturing recovery in the iron ore market has been interrupted, and the demand may be suppressed during the environmental protection production restrictions in the north. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - The coal and coke market has large price fluctuations. The supply of coking coal recovers slowly, and the profit of coke enterprises has improved. Attention should be paid to the supply and demand dynamics [2] - The trading logic of the steel and glass markets has returned to fundamentals. The overall demand is weak, and the inventory may accumulate. The short - term steel products are supported by policies [2] - The stock index market has rebounded, and the risk preference has recovered. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly. The bond market has fluctuations, and the long positions in national debt should also be held lightly [3] - The gold market is affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, inflation data, and trade policies. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3] - The pulp market has a weak supply - demand pattern and is expected to have a weak price trend. The log market has a good fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate within a range [5][6] - The edible oil market has different supply - demand situations. The inventory of some oils may change, and the price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias. The meal market is under pressure from supply and weak demand, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] - The live pig market has a downward trend in the average trading weight, and the supply is increasing while the consumption is restricted. The price and the slaughterhouse's operating rate are expected to decline [7] - The natural rubber market has a tight supply due to weather and geopolitical factors, and the price is expected to remain strong. The polyester market is affected by multiple factors, and different products have different trends, mainly in a wait - and - see state [10][11] 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted. The northern region will implement environmental protection production restrictions during the September 3rd parade, which may suppress demand. The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the arrival volume has increased. The iron ore fundamentals are currently okay, but there are risks of production reduction and restriction in the future. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - **Coal and Coke**: The exchange has adjusted the quota for coking coal due to the large price increase. The supply of coking coal recovers slowly, and the five - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The profit of steel mills is high, and the demand for coke is strong. Attention should be paid to the supply dynamics and policy matching [2] - **Rebar**: After the Politburo meeting, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. The demand for building materials has declined in the off - season, and the total demand is weak. The inventory may accumulate, but the short - term steel products are supported by policies [2] - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. The glass production line is stable, the inventory of downstream players is low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The long - term demand is difficult to pick up significantly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index**: The stock index market has rebounded, and the risk preference has recovered. The central bank's monetary policy is "moderately loose", and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [3] - **National Debt**: The yield of the 10 - year national debt has declined, and the market interest rate has rebounded. The national debt trend has dropped, and it is recommended to hold long positions in national debt lightly [3] - **Gold and Silver**: The gold pricing mechanism is changing. It is affected by central bank gold purchases, inflation, trade policies, and employment data. The market has a high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, and the price of gold and silver is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is mainly stable. The cost price of pulp has decreased, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [5] - **Logs**: The demand has increased slightly, and the supply pressure is not large. The cost has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [5][6] - **Edible Oils**: The production of palm oil may slow down, and the inventory may accumulate. The domestic soybean import volume is high, and the inventory of some oils may change. The price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [5][6] - **Meal**: The global supply of soybeans is sufficient, and the domestic supply pressure is significant. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, the supply is increasing, and the consumption is restricted by high temperatures. The price and the slaughterhouse's operating rate are expected to decline [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather and geopolitical factors, and the demand of the tire industry is differentiated. The inventory in Qingdao Port has decreased, and the price is expected to remain strong [10] - **Polyester Products**: The PX and PTA markets are affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships. The MEG market has supply pressure, and the PR and PF markets are affected by demand and oil prices. They are mainly in a wait - and - see state [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Domestically, the economy shows downward pressure as the manufacturing PMI declines. It enters a policy observation period, and incremental policies may be introduced if economic data continues to weaken. Overseas, it's an inflation observation period. Despite a hawkish speech from Powell, the Fed's core targets are employment and inflation. With poor non - farm data and high inflation in the US service sector, there may be fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, without new shock factors, it is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range, with a likely central anchor at 7.20 [4]. - The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend. The adjustment of US tariff policies may reduce risk appetite [6]. - For the bond market, there is a mild price repair. Although the stock market is strong, the bond market is at most suppressed, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. - For the shipping industry, the container shipping index is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [9]. - In the precious metals market, due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, gold and silver are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper may be volatile and weak; aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile; zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom; nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile in the short - term; tin may rise slightly; and the recommended strategies vary for each metal [13][15][16][17][18][19]. - In the black metals market, steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space; iron ore is expected to be strong; coking coal and coke may have increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic; silicon iron and silicon manganese are not overly pessimistic despite the decline in sentiment [21][23][26][27]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is under supply pressure and has limited upward space; LPG is in a loose supply situation; PX - TA can be considered for expanding processing fees at low prices; MEG - bottle chips are expected to be range - bound; methanol's fundamentals are weak in the short - term; PP is driven up by coal prices; PE needs to wait for demand recovery; PVC's pricing returns to the industry, and short - selling is recommended; pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile; fuel oil is weak; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling; asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile; urea is expected to be weakly volatile; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline; and propylene's price in the Shandong market has a slight increase [31][33][35][37][39][42][45][47][48][50][51][53][54][56][58][59][60][61][66]. - In the agricultural products market, for live pigs, short - selling at high prices is recommended; for oilseeds, long - buying in the far - month contracts is recommended [67][69]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market information includes policies on financial support for new - type industrialization in China, the US service - sector PMI causing concerns about stagflation, Trump's statements on tariffs and the Fed, and the high proportion of seriously overdue consumer loans in the US [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange - rate performance shows a decline in the on - shore RMB against the US dollar. Trump's tariff policies and the decline in the US non - manufacturing index are important factors. Without new shock factors, the short - term exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index continued to rise yesterday, and the small - cap stocks were strong. The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend due to policy support and the adjustment of US tariff policies [5][6]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury futures fluctuated upward, and the price is in a mild repair state. The bond market is at most suppressed by the strong stock market, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. Shipping - The container shipping index futures opened low and fluctuated. The spot prices of major shipping companies have been continuously reduced, and the futures price is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [8][9]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The price of precious metals rose due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. They are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded slightly, mainly to correct the previous decline. It may be volatile and weak in the short - term, and investors are advised to hold cash and wait [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered when the price difference is large [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom. The supply is gradually changing from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the traditional off - season [16][17]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to be volatile in the short - term. The fundamentals of nickel have no obvious changes, and the supply of nickel - iron is supported by the expected increase in steel - mill production in August. The stability of the stainless - steel price needs to be tested [18]. - **Tin**: Tin rose slightly, showing strong resilience. The supply problem has not been resolved, and the demand weakness has not fully affected the price. Inventory hedging can be considered at an appropriate time [19]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space. Although the export orders have weakened, the market pressure is temporarily relieved, and the coal - mine inspection and military - parade limit - production expectations provide support [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to be strong. The short - term fundamentals are good, and the supply is neutral while the demand is expected to remain high. The price is expected to break through the 800 - yuan pressure level [22][23]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose strongly. The "anti - involution" policy may lead to increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic. It is not recommended for non - spot - handling investors to participate in the 09 - contract delivery game [25][26]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: Although the sentiment has declined, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported by high steel - mill profits in the short - term, but the long - term demand is uncertain [27][28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell overnight, and the market is under supply pressure. The seasonal demand is weakening, and the upward space is limited [30][31]. - **LPG**: LPG is in a loose supply situation. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand has little change. The price is expected to be under pressure [32][33]. - **PX - PTA**: The PX - TA price has fallen. The current TA processing fee is at a historical low, and there are many expected TA maintenance plans. It is recommended to expand the processing fee at low prices [34][35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The "anti - involution" premium has been squeezed out, and the fundamentals have insufficient driving force. They are expected to be range - bound [36][37]. - **Methanol**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the methanol market has returned to fundamentals, which are weak in the short - term. Attention should be paid to downstream resistance and port - to - inland price differences [38][39]. - **PP**: PP's price rose driven by coal prices. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak, so the market is in a weak pattern [40][42]. - **PE**: PE's price was driven up by the coal - market. The current demand is weak, and the inventory is high, but the demand is expected to recover in August [43][45]. - **PVC**: PVC's pricing has returned to the industry. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. Short - selling is recommended [46][47]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile. The supply and demand of pure benzene are both increasing, and the supply of styrene is expected to increase in August and September [48][50]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling due to weak supply, demand, and high inventory [51][53]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile, following the cost - end. The supply has increased, but the demand is affected by weather and funds. The medium - to - long - term demand is expected to improve [53][54]. - **Urea**: Urea is under pressure. Although the export demand provides some support, the agricultural demand is weakening [55][56]. - **Glass, Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: They show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Soda ash has a strong supply and weak demand; glass is in a weak - balance state; and caustic soda may start the delivery logic in August [57][58][59][60]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline. The supply and inventory are high, and the demand has no obvious long - term increase, but there is seasonal support in August [61][62]. - **Propylene**: The price of propylene in the Shandong market has a slight increase. The supply is loose, and the demand has little change. The cost is affected by multiple factors [64][66]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs is stable, and the supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The outer - market US soybeans are weak, and the inner - market soybeans are pricing the far - month supply gap. It is recommended to long - buy in the far - month contracts [68][69].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: High-level oscillation [2] - Glass: High-level oscillation [2] - SSE 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Oscillation [2] - CSI 1000: Oscillation [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [2] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [2] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [2] - Gold: Oscillation [2] - Silver: High-level oscillation [2] - Pulp: Correction [2] - Logs: Oscillation [2] - Soybean oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - Palm oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [2] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [2] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [2] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [2] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a bearish bias [2] - Rubber: Oscillation [2] - PX: Wait-and-see [2] - PTA: Wait-and-see [2] - MEG: Wait-and-see [2] - PR: Wait-and-see [2] - PF: Wait-and-see [2] Core Views - The trading focus in the near term is on "anti-involution + stable growth", with risks of a phased correction after short-term sentiment release. During the military parade on September 3rd, environmental protection restrictions in northern regions may suppress iron ore demand. The overall performance of the Politburo meeting was below expectations, and market trading enthusiasm may continue to weaken [2]. - The Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to study suggestions for formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan". Macro policies should continue to exert force and increase strength in a timely manner [2]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbances, and the evolution of tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts dominates market risk aversion sentiment [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments are increasing, supply remains abundant, and arrivals are expected to rebound. The iron ore fundamentals are okay in the short term. Consider a strategy of going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal. Coking coal supply recovery is slow, and there is limited power for further significant price increases. Coke has a fifth-round price increase expectation [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coil**: There are risks of a phased correction. The market trading enthusiasm may decline. The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and there is a pre-holiday high and post-holiday low pattern. Consider a strategy of going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2]. - **Glass**: Supply remains low, and the market sentiment has improved. However, the real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Different stock indices showed different trends, with some sectors having capital inflows and others having outflows. The Politburo meeting deployed economic work for the second half of the year [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Market interest rates rebounded, and Treasury bond prices declined. Hold Treasury bond long positions lightly [2]. - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism is changing, and various factors such as the US debt problem, interest rates, and geopolitics affect its price. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [2]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The pulp market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to correct [2]. - **Logs**: Log prices are expected to oscillate, with supply pressure not significant and demand improving [2]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils**: The production of Malaysian palm oil may slow down, and domestic soybean arrivals are high. Oils are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [2]. - **Meals**: The US soybean harvest is expected to be good, and domestic supply pressure is significant. Demand is weak, but weather factors may provide support. Meals are expected to oscillate [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is declining, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias. Slaughter enterprise开工率 may continue to decline [2]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather and geopolitical factors, and demand from the tire industry is mixed. Rubber prices are expected to remain firm [2]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply and demand are tight in the short term, and prices follow oil prices [2]. - **PTA**: Supply is slowly increasing, and downstream demand is weakening. Prices follow costs in the short term [2]. - **MEG**: Arrivals are increasing, and supply pressure is rising. Prices are under pressure in the short term [2]. - **PR**: The polyester bottle - chip market may adjust steadily and strongly [2]. - **PF**: The market is expected to be in a narrow range due to the game between cost support and weak demand [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Adjustment [2] - Coking coal and coke: Pull back after reaching a high [2] - Rebar and coil: Pull back after reaching a high [2] - Glass: Pull back after reaching a high [2] - Soda ash: Fluctuation [2] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Fluctuation [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Fluctuation [3] - 2-year Treasury Bond Futures: Fluctuation [3] - 5-year Treasury Bond Futures: Fluctuation [3] - 10-year Treasury Bond Futures: Rebound [3] - Gold: Fluctuation [3] - Silver: High-level fluctuation [3] - Pulp: Fluctuating upward [6] - Logs: Fluctuation [6] - Soybean oil: Fluctuating downward [6] - Palm oil: Fluctuating downward [6] - Rapeseed oil: Fluctuating downward [6] - Soybean meal: Fluctuating downward [6] - Rapeseed meal: Fluctuating downward [6] - Soybean No. 2: Fluctuating downward [6] - Soybean No. 1: Fluctuating downward [6] - Live pigs: Fluctuating downward [8] - Rubber: Fluctuation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Weak consolidation [9] Core Views - The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth", and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a phased correction after the short-term sentiment is released [2][3][6][8] - The end-of-month Politburo meeting is approaching, and the macro is neutral to strong. Pay attention to the implementation of policies and the performance of off-season demand [2] - The steel industry's expectation of stable growth in the short term has improved market sentiment. Pay attention to whether there will be more policies issued at the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2] - The real estate industry is still in an adjustment cycle, and the demand for glass is difficult to rebound significantly [2] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The actions of central banks are crucial [3] - The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors, and the market's risk aversion sentiment is dominated by the evolution of tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts [3] - The short-term risk aversion demand has weakened, and the Fed's expectation of a rate cut in September reaches about 60%. Pay attention to the FOMC meeting on July 25th [3] - The fundamentals of pulp show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate upward [6] - The supply pressure of logs is not large, and the demand is in the off-season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate mainly [6] - The inventory of the three major oils continues to rise, and it is expected to fluctuate downward [6] - The supply of soybeans is abundant, and it is expected to fluctuate downward [6] - The supply of live pigs continues to increase, and high temperatures restrict consumption. It is expected that the weekly average price will decline [8] - The natural rubber industry is in a supply-demand adjustment stage, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly [8] - The supply and demand of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are different, and it is recommended to wait and see or expect weak consolidation [9] Grouped Summaries Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth". The global iron ore shipment volume has increased, and the supply is still loose. The iron ore fundamentals are okay in the short term, but the supply-demand surplus pattern remains unchanged in the long term. Pay attention to policy implementation and off-season demand [2] - Coking coal and coke: The "anti-involution" policy is fermenting, the market sentiment is optimistic, and the third round of price increases has been fully implemented. The fundamentals are strong, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a phased correction. Pay attention to the trends of molten iron and the supply side [2] - Rebar and coil: The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth". The demand for building materials has declined in the off-season, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. The total demand is difficult to have an inverse seasonal performance, and it is expected to be high in the front and low in the back. Pay attention to policy issuance [2] - Glass: The inventory of glass factories continues to decline, and the supply remains low. The market sentiment has improved, and the production and sales have improved. However, the demand is difficult to rebound significantly in the long term. Pay attention to the improvement of actual demand [2] - Soda ash: The supply is low, and the market sentiment is good. The downstream inventory is low and there is room for replenishment, but the rigid demand has not recovered. Pay attention to the improvement of actual demand [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.53%, the Shanghai 50 index fell by 0.60%, the CSI 500 index rose by 0.10%, and the CSI 1000 index rose by 0.08%. The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has declined, and the market interest rate has consolidated. The Treasury bond trend has rebounded slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [3] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the risk aversion demand is still there. The short-term risk aversion demand has weakened, and the Fed's expectation of a rate cut in September reaches about 60%. It is expected that gold will fluctuate mainly [3] Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price is stable, the cost price has decreased, and the demand is in the off-season. The fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate upward [6] - Logs: The port inventory has increased, the cost support has strengthened, the supply pressure is not large, and the demand is in the off-season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate mainly [6] Oils and Fats - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: The inventory of the three major oils continues to rise, the supply is abundant, and it is expected to fluctuate downward. Pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6] - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: The supply of soybeans is abundant, and it is expected to fluctuate downward. Pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas, the arrival of soybeans, and Sino-US trade negotiations [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight continues to decline, the supply continues to increase, high temperatures restrict consumption, and it is expected that the weekly average price will decline [8] - Rubber: The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to be tight, the raw material prices are firm, the industry is in a supply-demand adjustment stage, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly [8] Polyester - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: The supply and demand are different, and it is recommended to wait and see or expect weak consolidation [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. However, it provides specific investment advice for different futures varieties: - **Buy Recommendations**: Steel (RB2510), Gold (AU2510), Silver (AG2510), Ethanol (EG2509), Methanol (MA2509, M2509), Palm Oil (P2509/Y2509/O1509) [2] - **Sell Recommendations**: EC2510 (Container Shipping Index - European Line), Stainless Steel (SS2509 short - term strategy), PX2509 (short - at upper - range), PTA2509 (short - at upper - range), SR2509 (Sugar - rebound short), CF2509 (Cotton - mid - term short), JD2509 (Eggs - long - term short), CJ2601 (Jujube - long - term short) [2] - **Hold Recommendations**: IH2509 (put option short - position), IM2509 (long - position with reduced exposure), TF2509, TS2509, TI2509 (Treasury bonds - curve strategy), RB2510 (Steel), JM2509 (Coking Coal), J2509 (Coke), CU2509 (Copper), AL2509 (Aluminum), ZN2509 (Zinc), SM2508 (Antimony), NISE09 (Nickel), PR2509 (Bottle Chips), UR2509 (Urea - range operation), EG2509 (Ethanol - put option seller), RM509 (Rapeseed Meal - short - term long), C2509 (Corn - watch pressure), AP2510 (Apple - around 7900), PK2510 (Peanut - around 8100), FG2509 (Glass - watch risk), RU2509 (Rubber - watch) [2] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small number of put option short - positions in MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract. The large - finance sector is building up strength to rise, while the A - share market has risen and then fallen. The stock - bond seesaw effect is significant, and the short - term sentiment transmission still affects the bond market, with the future dependent on the Politburo meeting's incremental policies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The news of a trade agreement between the US and countries like Europe and Japan eases the risk - aversion sentiment, causing gold to fall from its high. Gold maintains a relatively strong oscillation above the 60 - day moving average due to the weakening credit and the driving of the commodity attribute. Silver has further room to rise under the support of the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflow, and long positions can be held [2]. - **Shipping and Black Metals**: The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to be weak in the near - month, and it is advisable to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices. In the black metals sector, the sentiment has improved, with increased iron - water production and steel mills' restocking. However, there are different strategies for different products such as taking profits on long positions in iron ore, coking coal, and coke at high prices [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Energy Chemicals**: Copper prices are oscillating strongly due to anti - involution policies. Alumina prices have fallen from the high due to concerns about the resumption of factory capacity in Shanxi. In the energy chemicals sector, different products face different market conditions, such as short - term weakness in oil prices, and different trading strategies are proposed for each product [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different market trends. For example, palm oil is strong, sugar has a loose overseas supply and is recommended to be shorted on rebounds, and cotton is strong in the short - term but shorted at high prices in the medium - term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: There is high - low rotation among sectors, large - finance is building up strength, and the A - share market has risen and then fallen. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Gradually take profits on IM long positions, switch to MO put option short - positions, and be mainly moderately bullish. In the short - term, adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and focus on the Politburo meeting [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Situation**: The short - term sentiment transmission affects the bond market, and it is difficult to say that it has stabilized [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Focus on the Politburo meeting's incremental policies and actual demand changes. Continue to play the steepening strategy for the yield curve [2]. Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: Gold has fallen from the high due to eased risk - aversion, while silver has the potential to rise further [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold long positions in silver, and gold maintains a relatively strong oscillation above the 60 - day moving average [2]. Shipping and Black Metals - **Market Situation**: The container shipping index (European Line) is falling, and the black metals sector has improved sentiment with increased iron - water production and restocking [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short the container shipping index contracts; take profits on long positions in iron ore, coking coal, and coke at high prices, and hold long positions in steel [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Market Situation**: Copper prices are oscillating strongly, alumina prices have fallen from the high, and other non - ferrous metals have different price trends [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Different trading ranges and strategies are proposed for each non - ferrous metal product [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Market Situation**: Oil prices are weak in the short - term, and different energy chemicals products face different supply - demand and market sentiment situations [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Different trading strategies such as range trading, shorting at high prices, and option trading are proposed for each product [2]. Agricultural Products - **Market Situation**: Different agricultural products have different supply - demand and price trends, such as strong palm oil and loose sugar supply [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Different trading strategies are proposed for each agricultural product, such as shorting on rebounds for sugar and shorting at high prices in the medium - term for cotton [2]. Special Commodities - **Market Situation**: Glass and rubber are affected by macro and sentiment factors, with large price fluctuations [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Observe and pay attention to risk avoidance for glass, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy for rubber [2]. New Energy - Related Commodities - **Market Situation**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate have different price trends and market situations [3]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for all of them and pay attention to price risks [3].