Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions on dips and taking profits, and left - side trading for September's Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - induced supply disruptions [2]. - For methanol, the cost has increased due to rising coal prices, domestic supply is increasing, and overseas imports are expected to rise. The demand is currently weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on positive spread opportunities after the improvement of supply - demand [4]. - Urea faces a situation of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The supply pressure remains, and the domestic demand lacks support. The main demand variable is exports. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [6]. - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate strongly. A neutral - long approach is suggested, with short - term long positions on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Partial liquidation of the strategy of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 is recommended [13]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [15]. - For styrene, the long - term BZN spread is expected to recover. When the inventory de - stocking inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - Polyethylene is expected to have an upward - trending price in the long - run, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21]. - PX is expected to maintain low inventories, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [24]. - PTA's supply - demand pattern has changed from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [25]. - Ethylene glycol has an oversupply situation in the medium - term, and there is downward pressure on its valuation [26]. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.43, or 2.21%, to $63.31; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.49, or 2.17%, to $67.25; INE main crude oil futures rose 3.20 yuan, or 0.66%, to 488.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: In the weekly data of Fujairah Port's oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.09 million barrels to 6.97 million barrels, a 13.47% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.82 million barrels to 1.46 million barrels, a 35.88% decline; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 7.18 million barrels, a 6.30% increase; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.48 million barrels to 15.61 million barrels, an 8.65% decline [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 26, the 01 contract fell 29 yuan/ton to 2395 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 120 [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Coal prices are rising, domestic supply is increasing, overseas imports are expected to rise rapidly. The demand from port MTO plants is temporarily stopped and expected to resume at the end of the month, and traditional demand is weak [4]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on positive spread opportunities after the improvement of supply - demand [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 26, the 01 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained stable, with a basis of - 47 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production is at a high level, and the enterprise profit is at a low level. The domestic demand is weak, and the main demand variable is exports [6]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are oscillating and consolidating [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls believe in factors such as weather in Southeast Asia, seasonal trends, and improved demand expectations in China; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal demand slumps, and less - than - expected supply benefits [10]. - **Industry Situation**: As of August 21, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from last week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from last week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year [11]. - **Inventory**: As of August 18, 2024, China's natural rubber social inventory was 121.7 million tons, up 0.4 million tons or 0.34% from the previous period; as of August 17, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) million tons [12]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate strongly. A neutral - long approach is suggested, with short - term long positions on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Partial liquidation of the strategy of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 is recommended [13]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 48 yuan to 4999 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4760 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 239 (+ 38) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 145 (+ 9) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate of PVC decreased, the downstream operating rate decreased slightly, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased. The enterprise profit is at a high level, and the export expectation is weak [15]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [15]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices of styrene fell, and the basis strengthened [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The macro - sentiment is good, the cost support remains, the BZN spread has room to recover, the supply is increasing, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is rising [17][18]. - **Strategy**: When the inventory de - stocking inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound [18]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene fell, and the spot price rose [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in Q3, the cost support remains, the inventory is being depleted, and the demand for agricultural film raw materials is starting to stockpile [20]. - **Strategy**: The long - term price is expected to oscillate upward [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene fell, and the spot price remained stable [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: A new integrated device has been put into production, the demand - side operating rate is oscillating at a low level, and the inventory pressure is high [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 24 yuan to 6994 yuan, and the PX CFR rose $5 to $864 [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is at a high level, the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, the overall load center is low, but due to new PTA device put - ins, PX is expected to maintain low inventories [23][24]. - **Strategy**: There are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [24]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 8 yuan to 4870 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 20 yuan/ton to 4870 yuan [25]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load decreased, the downstream load increased, and the inventory decreased. The supply - demand pattern has changed from inventory accumulation to de - stocking [25]. - **Strategy**: There are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [25]. MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 19 yuan to 4490 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 11 yuan to 4553 yuan [26]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, the downstream load is increasing, the port inventory is decreasing, but there is an oversupply situation in the medium - term [26]. - **Strategy**: There is downward pressure on its valuation in the medium - term [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, methanol, urea, rubber, PVC, styrene, polyolefins, and polyester. It believes that in the context of low Cushing inventories, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum, but the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. For other products, it provides specific analyses based on factors such as supply, demand, cost, and inventory, and gives corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.74, or 1.13%, to $66.16; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.69, or 1.00%, to $69.36; INE main crude oil futures rose 6.60 yuan, or 1.27%, to 527 yuan [1]. - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.74 million barrels to 12.97 million barrels, a 6.02% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 1.19 million barrels to 7.87 million barrels, a 13.15% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.31 million barrels to 23.70 million barrels, a 1.34% increase; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.14 million barrels to 44.54 million barrels, a 0.32% decrease [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Given the low Cushing inventories, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A target price of $70/barrel for WTI in the September hurricane season is set, and it is recommended to buy on dips and take profits [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the 09 contract rose 69 yuan/ton to 2480 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 48 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 15 [4]. - **Analysis**: The market is significantly driven by news, with increased volatility and operational difficulty. The upstream operating rate continues to decline, and profits have slightly decreased but remain at a relatively high level. Overseas plant operating rates have returned to medium - high levels, and market fluctuations have narrowed. The port olefin load has increased this week, while traditional demand is in the off - season, with the operating rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid decreasing and those of chlorides and MTBE increasing. The overall demand is weak. After the methanol price decline, downstream profits have been repaired but remain at a low level, and the methanol spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside is expected to be limited. The domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see after a sharp rise [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the 09 contract rose 12 yuan/ton to 1785 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 15 [6]. - **Analysis**: Affected by the deepening of the domestic anti - involution policy, the domestic industrial products have risen sharply, and urea has also increased significantly. However, most fixed - bed plants have completed technological upgrades, and it is mainly affected by short - term sentiment. The domestic operating rate has slightly decreased, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level, with cost support expected to gradually strengthen. The compound fertilizer operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, and the subsequent operating rate will continue to increase, which will support the demand for urea. Export containerization continues, and port inventories continue to rise. The domestic urea supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. Currently, the urea valuation is neutral to low, and the supply - demand margin is expected to improve. It is more advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips and not to chase the market when the price rises [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: After continuous rises, NR and RU showed volatile trends, and the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has weakened [8]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may contribute to rubber production cuts, the seasonal trend usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [15]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Rubber prices are likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish view should be maintained, and positions should be built at appropriate times. In the short term, due to the large increase, the risk of a pullback should be guarded against. A neutral approach is recommended, with quick entry and exit. There is an opportunity to increase positions in the spread operation of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 87 yuan to 5238 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 5090 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 148 (-67) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 114 (+4) yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: The cost side remains stable, the overall PVC operating rate has increased, the downstream operating rate has decreased, factory inventories have decreased, and social inventories have increased. Corporate profits have continued to improve, the number of maintenance operations has gradually decreased, and production is at a five - year high. In the short term, multiple sets of plants will be put into operation. The domestic downstream operating rate is at a five - year low and is still in the off - season. The anti - dumping extension in India has marginally improved the pessimistic expectations, and the cost support has weakened. The pessimistic expectations in the fundamentals have improved due to the extension of the anti - dumping in India, but there are still pressures in supply - demand and valuation. In the short term, the price is strong under the stimulation of the anti - dumping extension and anti - involution sentiment, and the risk of sentiment fading should be guarded against [13]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [15]. - **Analysis**: After the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the China Iron and Steel Association issued statements on the anti - involution policy, the coal sector rose and then stabilized, and the cost side still has support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The bullish view is based on demand expectations and production cut expectations, while the bearish view is based on the falsification of demand. The cost side of pure benzene has increased its operating rate, and the supply is relatively abundant. The supply - side profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, but the styrene operating rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have increased significantly. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products has fluctuated and increased. In the short term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the styrene price is expected to follow the cost side [15][17]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [19]. - **Analysis**: The black sector rose and then stabilized, and the cost side still has support. The polyethylene spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. Trader inventories are fluctuating at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. In the seasonal off - season, the demand - side agricultural film orders are fluctuating at a low level, and the overall operating rate is declining. The short - term contradiction has shifted from the cost - driven downward trend to the high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. With the commissioning of the Huizhou ExxonMobil ethylene plant in July, the polyethylene price is expected to fluctuate downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [20]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, with the marginal return of propylene supply. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. In the seasonal off - season, under the background of weak supply and demand, the polypropylene price is expected to be bearish in July [20]. Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 96 yuan to 6956 yuan, the PX CFR rose 14 dollars to 856 dollars, the basis was 87 (+16) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 108 (+24) yuan [22]. - **Analysis**: The PX maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA maintenance season is also over, and the load level is high. The processing fee has been repaired, and the inventory level is low. Even though the polyester and terminal sectors are in the off - season, the short - term negative feedback pressure on PX is still small. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil price [22][23]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 66 yuan to 4850 yuan, the East China spot price rose 5 yuan to 4815 yuan, the basis was 0 (-2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 26 (+22) yuan [24]. - **Analysis**: The PTA load remains unchanged. The downstream load has increased. The social inventory has increased. The spot processing fee has decreased, and the futures processing fee has increased. In the future, the supply - side maintenance volume in July is small, and new plants will be put into operation, with expected continuous inventory accumulation. The PTA processing fee repair space is limited. The demand side is under pressure in the off - season. Due to the low inventory level and the repair of the processing fee, the upward negative feedback pressure is expected to be small. The PXN has support under the pattern improvement brought about by PTA commissioning. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX [24]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 49 yuan to 4485 yuan, the East China spot price rose 29 yuan to 4530 yuan, the basis was 58 (-4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 3 (-3) yuan [25]. - **Analysis**: The supply - side load has increased, the downstream load has increased, the import arrival forecast is 15.7 million tons, the East China departure volume on July 23 was 0.8 million tons, and the warehouse - out volume has increased. The port inventory has decreased by 2 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit is - 279 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit is - 556 yuan, and the coal - based production profit is 955 yuan. The cost side of ethylene remains unchanged, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines has increased. The overseas and domestic maintenance plants are gradually starting, and the downstream operating rate is continuously declining due to the off - season. The port inventory reduction is expected to gradually slow down. The valuation is relatively high compared to the same period. The maintenance season is gradually ending, and the fundamentals are changing from strong to weak. However, recently, under the consistent weak expectations, the actual operating rate has exceeded expectations. The unexpected situation of Saudi plants has led to a decrease in import expectations, and multiple domestic plants have had unexpected situations, combined with the low arrival volume, resulting in a reduction in low - level inventories. The short - term valuation has upward support [25].