能源化工日报 2025-08-27 2025/08/27 原油早评 能源化工组 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 1.43 美元，跌幅 2.21%，报 63.31 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收跌 1.49 美元，跌幅 2.17%，报 67.25 美元；INE 主力原油期货收涨 3.20 元，涨幅 0.66%， 报 488.8 元。 数据方面：富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉， 汽油库存去库 1.09 百万桶至 6.97 百万桶，环 比去库 13.47%；柴油库存去库 0.82 百万桶至 1.46 百万桶，环比去库 35.88%；燃料油库存累 库 0.43 百万桶至 7.18 百万桶，环比累库 6.30%；总成品油去库 1.48 百万桶至 15.61 百万桶， 环比去库 8.65%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前基本面市场健康，在库欣低库存的情况下，叠加飓风预期与俄罗斯相关事件，原 油具备上涨动能。但 8 月中旬淡季降至，季节性需求转弱将限制原油的上行空间，在上行空间 与窗口期都较为有限 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel market shows signs of slight price strengthening, with hot-rolled steel outperforming rebar, indicating a resilient demand despite seasonal trends [1][6]. Supply - The production of pig iron has exceeded expectations, increasing by 2.6% to 2.424 million tons, while scrap steel consumption remains stable at 0.505 million tons. The total output of the five major steel products decreased by 4.5% to 8.68 million tons, with rebar production down by 7.6% to 2.096 million tons and hot-rolled steel down by 2% to 3.21 million tons [3]. - The year-on-year growth rate of iron element production from January to June is 3.2%, with an estimated annual growth rate of 3.3% due to high base effects from the previous year [3]. Demand - The apparent demand for the five major steel products remains stable at high levels, with a slight decrease of 3,000 tons to 8.7 million tons in the latest period. The demand in June and July did not decline further, indicating better-than-expected performance during the off-season [4]. Inventory - Recent production has fluctuated with apparent demand, leading to stable inventory levels. The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 20,000 tons to 13.377 million tons, with rebar inventory increasing by 30,000 tons to 5.43 million tons, while hot-rolled steel inventory decreased by 26,500 tons to 3.43 million tons [5]. Cost and Profit - On the cost side, coking coal production in Shanxi is gradually recovering, but recent strong demand from traders has kept spot prices firm. Iron ore inventory is expected to see slight accumulation due to increased shipments, but the price elasticity remains weak due to expectations of ample supply [2]. - Profit margins for steel products rank from highest to lowest as follows: steel billet, hot-rolled steel, rebar, and cold-rolled steel [2]. Market Sentiment - Weekly data indicates a slight decrease in production following apparent demand, with overall demand showing minimal decline. The demand for hot-rolled steel remains high year-on-year, while rebar demand has decreased [6]. - Steel mills are purchasing iron ore, leading to a continuous decline in port inventories, which, combined with resilient seasonal demand, supports an upward trend in iron ore prices. The sentiment for commodity trading remains positive, with expectations of supply contraction [6]. - Resistance levels for rebar and hot-rolled steel have been cleared, with the next resistance levels to watch at 3,250 and 3,400 yuan respectively [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual energy and chemical products, ratings such as "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "oscillating strongly" are used based on the expected price movements within the next 2 - 12 weeks [268]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market currently lacks a clear mainline. The increase in the Caixin Manufacturing PMI reflects the boost from the suspension of the Sino - US trade war, but the employment and raw material inventory indexes are relatively weak. The progress of the US - Iran negotiation has stagnated, which may disrupt the crude oil market again. The overall chemical industry continues to oscillate, and factors like the Caixin PMI index and device start - stop news are used for short - term trading. The report suggests an oscillating approach towards the energy and chemical market, waiting for new supply - demand drivers [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Middle East exports increased significantly in June, and the market is waiting for the OPEC+ meeting's production resolution this weekend. On July 1st, international oil prices rose, and the market is concerned about the OPEC+ meeting. Saudi Arabia's June crude oil exports increased by 450,000 barrels per day to 6.33 million barrels per day. Brazil's May oil and gas production increased year - on - year, and Kazakhstan's June crude oil production recovered and reached a historical high. The US API data shows a decrease in total oil inventory, which is beneficial for oil prices. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [4]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: The market has returned to trading the loose fundamentals, and the PG market may oscillate weakly. On July 1st, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4,200 yuan/ton. The supply - demand pattern is loose, with increasing liquefied gas and civil gas volumes, low downstream replenishment willingness during the off - season, and limited follow - up increments in chemical demand. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [7]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price oscillates, waiting for negative factors to materialize. The futures price follows the crude oil price, and factors such as OPEC+ potential over - production in August, increased supply from Venezuela and Iran, and weak demand may put pressure on the asphalt price. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly [4][5]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Negative factors for high - sulfur fuel oil are yet to fully materialize. OPEC+ may over - produce in August, and the decrease in natural gas prices may reduce the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation. The increase in heavy oil supply and the weakening of geopolitical factors are negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly [6]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The low - sulfur fuel oil price follows the crude oil price down. It is affected by factors such as the weakening of the gasoline - diesel spread, shipping demand decline, and green energy substitution. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly, following the crude oil price [7]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The port price has weakened significantly, and methanol oscillates. On July 1st, the methanol price oscillated. The domestic main production areas showed a weak downward trend, with increased port inventory and weakening basis. The coal price has an impact on production costs, and the MTO profit is low. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [16][17]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change, and it depends on exports. On July 1st, the urea price was stable. The domestic demand is weak, and the market is mainly trading the supply - demand imbalance. The export is expected to drive the market. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the short term, waiting for new market drivers [17]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: With low inventory, it continues to oscillate and consolidate. On July 1st, the ethylene glycol price was weak, and the basis strengthened. The future arrival volume is expected to increase, and the shutdown of a bottle - chip device will reduce the demand. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [12]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil is temporarily stable, and PX oscillates strongly. On July 1st, the PX price and related indicators are given. In the short term, the cost of PX may weaken due to the potential weakening of crude oil, and the supply - demand side is affected by device maintenance. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [9]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Supply - demand weakens, and the cost - side PX is strong, so PTA oscillates. On July 1st, the PTA price and processing fees are provided. The crude oil price may decline, which has a weak impact on PTA. The supply is tight, but the demand from downstream factories may decrease. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating, with the supply - demand margin weakening but following the cost - side in the short term [9]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The short - fiber processing fee is supported, the basis is stable, and the absolute value follows the raw material's fluctuations. On July 1st, the short - fiber futures performed better than the raw material PTA. The industry has no major contradictions, and the key is whether the recent weak sales will continue. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [13][14]. Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance has gradually started, and the bottle - chip processing fee has bottomed out. On July 1st, the polyester raw material futures declined slightly, and the bottle - chip market was active. The reduction in supply due to maintenance limits the further decline of the processing fee. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating, with the absolute value following the raw material and limited further compression of the processing fee [14][15]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance increase is limited, and PP oscillates in the short term. On July 1st, the PP price oscillated, and the basis was stable. The cost is affected by the crude oil price, the supply is increasing, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [21][22]. Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance support is limited, and plastic oscillates. On July 1st, the LLDPE price oscillated weakly, and the basis strengthened. The decline in oil prices, the increase in supply, and the weak demand from downstream industries are the main factors. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [20]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: In the vacuum period of driving factors, styrene oscillates narrowly. On July 1st, the styrene price declined, and the basis strengthened. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the pure - benzene fundamentals are marginally improving. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly [10]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC oscillates. The macro - level risk preference has improved, but the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are under pressure due to new capacity, off - season demand, and limited export growth. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating, with a bearish supply - demand expectation and a preference for short - selling [23]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Liquid chlorine is under pressure, and caustic soda rebounds weakly. The short - term price oscillates, supported by improved risk preference and increased cost, but pressured by the bearish supply - demand expectation in July - August. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the short term, with a preference for short - selling in the long term [24]. Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., are provided, showing different changes [26]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are given, with corresponding changes [27]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc., are presented, showing different changes [29]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring for methanol, urea, styrene, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, asphalt, crude oil, LPG, fuel oil, LLDPE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda but does not provide specific data summaries in the content [30][42][53].

Core Viewpoint - The construction steel inventory in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) region has significantly decreased compared to previous years, with current levels lower than the same period last year, indicating a tightening supply situation in the market [1][4] Group 1: Inventory and Production - As of June 20, the social inventory of construction steel in the Jing-Jin-Ji region has increased slightly by 2.11% week-on-week but has decreased by 25.98% year-on-year [1] - The operating rate of rebar production lines in the Jing-Jin-Ji region has remained below 50% since the beginning of the year, with a total rebar output of 4.75 million tons in the first five months, representing a year-on-year decrease of 13.2% [1][2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The local steel resources in the Jing-Jin-Ji region are limited, leading to higher prices and some reliance on external steel resources to fill the gap [2][3] - The price of rebar in the Jing-Jin-Ji region is significantly higher compared to other regions, with price differences of around 100 yuan per ton compared to Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Liaoning [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the expected decline in construction steel production, short-term changes are minimal, and external steel supply may increase [4] - The current low inventory levels in the Jing-Jin-Ji region are unlikely to see significant growth in the short term, maintaining a relatively low position [4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry were provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The cotton market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. ICE US cotton rose 1.29% to 67.56 cents/pound on Monday, while CF509 fell 0.3% to 13,465 yuan/ton. Macro - level disturbances persist internationally, and the domestic market is affected by the rise and fall of crude oil prices. The current low inventory of domestic old cotton supports prices, but demand - side drivers are weak, and new cotton is expected to have a good harvest. The overall cotton demand remains but is difficult to improve significantly [1] - The sugar market is also expected to continue its oscillatory trend. Pakistan's decision to import 750,000 tons of sugar has pushed up domestic sugar prices. International regional conflicts and crude oil price fluctuations have boosted raw sugar prices. The short - term fundamentals lack news guidance, and the medium - term outlook is for a good harvest. The stable domestic spot price and the basis are currently strong supports for the futures price [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: The international market is affected by geopolitical news and the movement of the US dollar index, while the domestic market is influenced by crude oil prices. The low inventory of old cotton supports prices, but demand is weak, and new cotton is expected to be abundant. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [1] - **Sugar**: Pakistan's import decision has affected domestic prices. International conflicts and crude oil price fluctuations have an impact on raw sugar. The short - term fundamentals lack news, and the medium - term outlook is for a good harvest. The stable domestic spot price and basis support the futures price [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is - 35, down 15; the main basis is 1429, up 45. The Xinjiang spot price is 14,780 yuan/ton, up 16, and the national spot price is 14,894 yuan/ton, up 15 [2] - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 144, up 10; the main basis is 334, down 1. The Nanning spot price is 6050 yuan/ton, up 20, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6055 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On June 23, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,493, down 39 from the previous trading day, with 300 valid forecasts. The yarn comprehensive load decreased by 0.2 to 53.4, and the yarn comprehensive inventory increased by 0.6 to 27.1. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 49.1, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory remained unchanged at 33.1 [3] - **Sugar**: On June 23, the Nanning sugar spot price was 6050 yuan/ton, up 20, and the Liuzhou price was 6055 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 27,334, down 335 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4] 4. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: The report presents multiple charts related to cotton, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis, contract spreads, the difference between domestic and foreign prices under a 1% tariff quota, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index [6][8][9] - **Sugar**: The report includes charts on the closing price of the main sugar contract, the basis, contract spreads, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [14][15][17] 5. Research Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for research on sugar, urea, soda - ash glass, and cotton, respectively. They have rich experience and many honors in the industry [19][20][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Low inventory is the main current concern, and consumer resilience and inventory changes are the main factors affecting zinc prices [1][3] - The cost of TC is not the main concern, the supply - side pressure remains, and the consumer side is the focus, with a possible weakening of consumption after May [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$37.09/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 22,860 yuan/ton, SMM Shanghai zinc spot premium rose by 50 yuan/ton to 460 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 40 yuan/ton to 22,910 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong zinc spot premium rose by 60 yuan/ton to 510 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 22,900 yuan/ton, SMM Tianjin zinc spot premium rose by 50 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On May 6, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,390 yuan/ton, closed at 22,355 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 115,056 lots, a decrease of 306 lots, and the position was 111,715 lots, an increase of 5,719 lots. The highest price was 22,580 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,300 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 6, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 84,100 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from last week. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 172,925 tons, a decrease of 875 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - **Cost**: TC remains high and relatively stable, with limited upward space in the future, and it is not the main concern for now [3] - **Supply**: The expected output in May will decline slightly but still maintain high - year - on - year growth, and there may be a delay in maintenance, so the supply - side pressure remains [3] - **Consumption**: It is the current focus. The continuous decline in social inventory and the rising spot premium support zinc prices. However, consumption may face a test in May, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month weakening after May [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy is neutral [4] - Arbitrage strategy is neutral [4]