上市险企披露半年度保费情况。 人身险：银保高增驱动寿险保费高速增长，分红转型+高基数，代理人渠道预计普遍低迷。2025H1，新华、太保增速 人身险分别同比+22.7%、+9.7%，预计由新单保费与续期保费共同拉动。太保披露了具体数据，其中新单保费增长 20.6%， 主要由银保渠道+90.2%拉动，个险、团险分别-20.0%、+6.3%。 财产险：增速整体放缓。2025H1 太保、众安分别同比+0.9%、+9.3%，其中太保车险、非车险分别+2.8%、-0.8%，业 务选择持续。众安增速放缓预计主要受退运险业务压降影响，健康险、车险仍旧延续高增长。 寿险板块基本面过度悲观预期改善带来的价值重估预计将继续，叠加二季报好于预期有望带来股价催化（Q2 单季利 润大部分公司有望正增长）。基本面积极因素涌现：1)监管导向行业降成本，利好大公司。2）利差拐点有望在明年出 现，过度悲观的利差预期正在修复。存量负债成本预计明年开始下降；险资增配权益，市场红利结构性机会与险资投 资风格适配，综合投资收益率中枢预计相对稳定；头部寿险公司的利差安全垫充足。3)销售端在产品转型期，银保市 占率大幅提升，提升趋势将延续。当前估值仍然非常 ...

Core Insights - The global insurance industry is facing challenges with slowing premium growth due to unstable policy environments and increased competition [1] - The Swiss Re Institute forecasts that the total premium growth rate for the insurance industry will decline from 5.2% in 2024 to 2% in 2023, with a slight recovery to 2.3% by 2026 [1] - Despite the current favorable investment income, the slowdown in growth will exert pressure on insurance demand [1] - Long-term U.S. tariff policies are contributing to market fragmentation, which may reduce the affordability and availability of insurance, ultimately weakening global risk resilience [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guobao Life Insurance, as the first national life insurance institution in Sichuan, is facing significant challenges due to ownership changes and financial instability, raising concerns about its governance and operational efficiency [2][4]. Ownership Changes - On June 20, Guobao Life announced that Meishan Hongyu Asset Management Co., Ltd. acquired 7.576% of its shares from Sichuan Xiongfeng Group for 176 million yuan, a 30% discount from the initial listing price [2]. - Sichuan Xiongfeng, a real estate company, had previously filed for bankruptcy and had all its shares in Guobao Life pledged [2][3]. - If approved, this transaction will increase the state-owned shareholding in Guobao Life, which currently stands at 58.71% [2]. Financial Performance - Guobao Life's insurance revenue has shown high growth from 3.28 billion yuan in 2018 to 38.43 billion yuan in 2024, but profitability remains unstable, with net profits fluctuating [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a significant drop in insurance revenue to 1.318 billion yuan, a decline of over 40% year-on-year, while net losses narrowed to 29 million yuan [5][6]. - The decline in premium growth is attributed to a negative cash flow from universal accounts and a significant drop in scale premium growth, which fell to -38.70% [5][6]. Product and Channel Structure - Guobao Life's product structure is heavily reliant on life insurance, which accounted for 96.15% of its premiums in 2024, lacking diversification into popular products like dividend insurance [6]. - The company primarily depends on the bancassurance channel, which contributed 89.75% of its premiums in 2024, making it vulnerable to changes in banking partnerships and regulatory policies [6]. Investment Performance - In Q1 2025, Guobao Life's investment yield was 0.73%, with a comprehensive investment yield of 0.54%, both down from the previous year [7]. - The average accounting investment yield over the past three years was 3.84%, significantly lower than the industry average of 7.45% [7]. Management Changes - In April 2025, Guobao Life's chairman Zhang Xi stepped down as party secretary, with Li Shihong, a former deputy director of the Sichuan Finance Department, expected to take over [8][9]. - The company has experienced frequent leadership changes, with multiple chairpersons in its short history, raising concerns about stability and governance [8][9][10]. Governance Challenges - The company is under pressure to improve its governance structure and fill key management positions, as the current leadership is stretched thin with multiple roles [13].