Core Viewpoint - China Pacific Insurance (02328) maintains a strong recommendation rating due to steady premium growth, continuous improvement in the combined operating ratio (COR), and effective risk management, leading to enhanced operational performance on the liability side [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, projecting a year-on-year growth of 40% to 60% [2] - For the first nine months of 2025, the net profit is estimated to be between 374.5 billion to 428 billion yuan, surpassing the total profit for the entire year of 2024, which was 321.6 billion yuan [3] - The static return on equity (ROE) for the first three quarters of 2025 is projected to be between 13.5% and 15.4%, with an annualized ROE of 17.9% to 20.5% [3] Group 2: Profit Growth Drivers - The expected high growth in net profit is attributed to two main factors: significant improvement in underwriting profit due to reduced disaster risks and effective risk management, alongside stable premium growth [4] - The company's investment income is also expected to rise due to an increase in the equity market, with a relatively low proportion of stocks in total investments (25.6% in 1H25), but a higher combined share of stocks and funds (14.5%) [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Premium growth is anticipated to recover in the fourth quarter of 2025, despite a slowdown in the first eight months of 2025, where premium income was 1.22 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [5] - The trend of improving COR is expected to continue, driven by reduced disaster risks and the gradual improvement of expense ratios due to the implementation of unified pricing for various products [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Founder Securities maintains a strong buy rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328), highlighting steady premium growth, continuous improvement in the combined operating ratio (COR), effective risk management, and enhanced operational performance on the liability side, which collectively drive return on equity (ROE) and valuation improvements [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - China Pacific Insurance is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 452 billion, 475 billion, and 498 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 40.6%, 5.0%, and 4.9% respectively [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 374.5 billion to 428 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40% to 60% [3]. - The net profit for the third quarter of 2025 is projected to be between 130 billion and 183.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 57.3% to 122.1% [3]. Group 2: Drivers of Profit Growth - The significant increase in net profit is attributed to two main factors: 1. A notable improvement in underwriting profit due to reduced disaster risk, the impact of unified pricing for auto insurance, and effective risk management, leading to a significant improvement in COR [4]. 2. An increase in investment income driven by a rising equity market, with the company's stock and fund investments accounting for 14.5% of total investment assets [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Premium growth is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025, despite a slowdown in the first eight months of the year due to high base effects from the previous year and pressures from the unified pricing of non-auto insurance [5]. - The trend of improving COR is likely to continue, supported by reduced disaster risks and the gradual improvement of expense ratios from unified pricing across various products [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3][14]. Core Insights - The report forecasts a year-on-year increase of 12.1% in net profit attributable to shareholders for A-share listed insurance companies in the first half of 2025, reaching approximately 192.63 billion yuan [3]. - The report highlights strong growth in new business value (NBV) for listed insurance companies, with significant contributions from dividend insurance products, particularly from companies like Xinhua Insurance and China Life [4]. - The report anticipates continued improvement in the combined ratio (COR) for property and casualty insurance companies, driven by effective risk control and cost reduction strategies [5]. - The investment environment is expected to improve, with a downward trend in long-term interest rates, which may alleviate pressure on the fair value of bonds [6]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - The report predicts robust NBV growth for listed insurance companies in 1H25, with Xinhua Insurance expected to grow by 50.1% year-on-year and China Life by 10.9% [4]. - The transition to dividend insurance has become a strategic focus for several companies, with notable increases in the proportion of dividend insurance products [4]. Property and Casualty Insurance - The report notes a 5.2% year-on-year increase in original insurance premium income for property and casualty insurance companies in the first five months of 2025, alongside a 2.3% decrease in claims [5]. - The report expects the COR for major companies to show continued improvement, with estimates of 94.7% for China Property & Casualty and 97.3% for China Ping An [5]. Investment Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of undervalued stocks and mid-year performance, suggesting that the anticipated reduction in interest rates could optimize new liability costs [6]. - Companies recommended for investment include Xinhua Insurance, China Life (H), China Pacific Insurance, ZhongAn Online, China Property & Casualty (H), and China Ping An [6].

Core Insights - China Life Insurance reported a net profit of 12.85 billion yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 43.4%, aligning with expectations [1] - The combined ratio (COR) improved to 94.5%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by reduced disaster risks and effective cost management [2] - The investment income surged to 12.2 billion yuan, marking a 390% year-on-year increase, indicating strong investment performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 12.85 billion yuan, with property and casualty insurance net profit at 11.31 billion yuan, up 92.7% year-on-year [1] - Life and health insurance net profits were 3.65 billion yuan and 2.43 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year change of -4.4% and +59.9% respectively [1] - The total premium income for property and casualty insurance was 180.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [2] Group 2: Underwriting and Premium Growth - The COR for property and casualty insurance improved significantly, attributed to reduced disaster risks and enhanced expense management [2] - The premium growth was steady, with auto insurance premiums at 71.7 billion yuan and non-auto insurance premiums at 108.7 billion yuan, both showing positive year-on-year growth [2] - There was a notable divergence in growth rates among non-auto insurance segments, with health insurance growing by 6.5% while agricultural insurance declined by 4.1% [2] Group 3: Investment and Asset Management - The company's net assets increased to 279.3 billion yuan, up 3.9% quarter-on-quarter, supported by effective asset-liability matching [3] - The total investment return rate for property and casualty insurance improved to 1.2%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [3] - The solvency ratios for core and comprehensive solvency were 216.3% and 237.5%, respectively, indicating a strong capital position [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company maintains a strong buy recommendation, anticipating continued profit growth driven by improved COR and NBV [4] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 46.5 billion, 49.3 billion, and 51.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.4%, 6.0%, and 3.6% respectively [4] - The current closing price corresponds to dynamic P/B ratios of 1.08, 1.01, and 0.95 for 2025-2027 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6][18] Core Views - The company's net profit for Q1 2025 increased by 92.7% year-on-year to 11.312 billion RMB, exceeding the expected growth range of 80%-100% [5][6] - The improvement in the Combined Operating Ratio (COR) was better than expected, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.4 percentage points to 94.5%, driven by reduced disaster losses and optimized expense inputs [5][6] - The company has seen a significant increase in underwriting profit, which rose by 183% year-on-year to 6.653 billion RMB [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 insurance premium income and service revenue were 180.421 billion RMB and 120.741 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.7% and 6.1% [5][8] - The company’s investment performance was strong, with a year-on-year increase in total investment return rate of 0.4 percentage points to 1.2% [6] - The financial investment asset allocation as of March 2025 included 30.6% in FVOCI equities, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the end of 2024 [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected operating revenue for 2025 is 516.176 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% [7] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 34.954 billion RMB, representing an 8.6% year-on-year increase [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.57 RMB, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.31 [7] Segment Analysis - In Q1 2025, the auto insurance premium income and service revenue were 71.696 billion RMB and 74.334 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.5% and 2.8% [8] - Non-auto insurance premium income and service revenue reached 108.725 billion RMB and 46.407 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.8% and 11.7% [8]