Core Viewpoint - The discussion around a potential bubble in the market is increasing, but Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett indicates that the credit spread of tech stocks is at a multi-year low, suggesting that the AI-driven tech stock rally has not yet reached a dangerous level [1][4][5]. Group 1: Credit Spread and AI Bubble Concerns - The current credit spread for tech stocks is at its lowest point in 18 years, indicating that investors are not pricing in potential risks for tech companies in the credit market [4][5]. - This low credit spread contrasts sharply with typical late-stage asset bubble scenarios, which usually see a sharp rise in credit risk [5][6]. - The EPFR fund flow data supports this optimism, showing significant inflows into various asset classes, including $24.7 billion into bond funds and $19.6 billion into equities [6][7]. Group 2: Dollar Strength and Market Risks - Hartnett warns that the primary risk for investors is not a bubble burst but an unexpected strengthening of the dollar, as the consensus trade of "shorting the dollar" has become prevalent [1][11]. - If the dollar index experiences a chaotic rebound and surpasses the critical level of 102, it could trigger a collective risk-off response among investors [11]. - Despite the short-term risk of a dollar rebound, Hartnett believes the long-term trend of dollar depreciation remains unchanged, providing structural support for assets like gold [12]. Group 3: Asset Performance and Market Dynamics - Year-to-date, gold has been the best-performing asset with a gain of 41.3%, while international stocks have risen by 24.7% and the dollar index has declined by 9.2% [8][9]. - The negative correlation between a weakening dollar and rising risk assets is evident, suggesting that as long as the consensus trade of "shorting the dollar" remains intact, the macro environment for asset appreciation will continue [11]. - Although gold is currently viewed as "overbought" tactically, it remains a "underweight" asset structurally, with only 0.4% of private client assets and 2.4% of institutional client assets allocated to gold [12].

Hartnett认为，当前美股科技股的信用债息差处于18年来的最低点，意味着AI泡沫尚未达到危险水平；美元贬值是驱动 本轮资产价格上涨的核心动力，一旦美元指数出现"无序"反弹并升破102的关键水平，可能导致"做空美元"的共识交易 被集中平仓。 AI泡沫行情到头了吗？美银认为尚未触及"危险水平"，市场目前真正的风险在于美元反弹。 尽管市场对潜在泡沫的讨论日渐升温，但美银策略师Michael Hartnett在其最新报告中指出， 科技股的信用债息差正处 于多年低点，这意味着由AI驱动的科技股涨势尚未达到危险水平。 Hartnett进一步警告称，投资者当前需要警惕的直接风险并非泡沫破裂，而是美元的意外走强，当前市场的最大软肋 是"做空美元"的共识交易。 一旦美元指数出现"无序"反弹并升破102的关键水平，可能会触发"风险规避"式的集体平 仓。 尽管如此，Hartnett认为，在通胀和利率走高的2020年代，大规模的政府债务和持续的货币贬值仍是长期趋势。这意 味着，虽然美元短期存在反弹风险，但其长期贬值的基础并未改变，这也是黄金等资产具备结构性支撑的原因。 信用债息差显示AI尚未形成信贷泡沫 这种全面的资金流入表明， ...