Group 1: Market Impact - The 40-year Japanese government bond yield surpassed 4% on January 20, marking a historical high, with a single-day increase exceeding 25 basis points[1] - Japan's fiscal policy changes, including a supplementary budget expected to increase annual deficits by approximately 5 trillion yen, have raised concerns about sovereign credit risk[13] - The rise in Japanese bond yields has led to a significant capital repatriation effect, decreasing the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries for Japanese investors[14] Group 2: Asset Performance - From January 17 to January 24, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.63%, the Hang Seng index decreased by 0.36%, and the S&P 500 also dropped by 0.36%[15] - The U.S. dollar index declined by 1.88%, while the offshore yuan appreciated by 0.27% during the same period[15] - Gold prices increased by 7.27%, and silver prices rose by 9.04%, indicating a shift towards precious metals amidst market volatility[15] Group 3: Inventory and Positioning - The latest oil inventory stood at 44,684 million tons, an increase of 44,935 million tons from the previous week[26] - The latest week saw a decrease in long positions in the U.S. dollar by 1,926 contracts, while short positions increased by 762 contracts[31] - The gold ETF size rose to 34.93 million ounces, up by 30,000 ounces from the previous week[31]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月24日 多资产周报 日债巨浪冲击全球市场 日债巨浪冲击全球市场。日本 40 年期国债收益率在 1 月 20 日突破 4%的 历史高位：（1）从原因上，日本财政货币政策变动是引发本轮日债抛 售的直接诱因。高市早苗政府计划推出远超预期的补充预算，几乎成为 "特拉斯"第二。同时，日本央行自 2024 年 3 月结束负利率以来，持 续推进缩表计划并减少国债购买。（2）从影响上看，日本长期以来是 全球最大的海外债主。当 40 年期日债利率回到 4%以上，叠加日元套息 交易的反转压力，产生了强烈的资金回流效应。随着日债利率大幅上行， 经汇率对冲后的美债吸引力对日本投资者而言显著下降。日本寿险公司 和养老金开始减少美债配置，甚至回流头寸以填补国内债市抛售带来的 流动性缺口，从而诱发美债跟随波动，并进而冲击全球金融市场稳定。 （3）往后看，益率的急剧上升促使日本加大口头干预,但日本央行增加 购买国债的可能性仍然很低。中期看，目前日元与利差背离，是因财政 担忧盖过了加息预期。一旦日本政府出面稳定赤字预期，日元可能瞬间 暴涨，引发比 2024 年 8 月更大规模的套息交易平仓，届时美债可能遭 遇 ...