证券研究报告 | 2026年01月24日 多资产周报 日债巨浪冲击全球市场 日债巨浪冲击全球市场。日本 40 年期国债收益率在 1 月 20 日突破 4%的 历史高位：（1）从原因上，日本财政货币政策变动是引发本轮日债抛 售的直接诱因。高市早苗政府计划推出远超预期的补充预算，几乎成为 "特拉斯"第二。同时，日本央行自 2024 年 3 月结束负利率以来，持 续推进缩表计划并减少国债购买。（2）从影响上看，日本长期以来是 全球最大的海外债主。当 40 年期日债利率回到 4%以上，叠加日元套息 交易的反转压力，产生了强烈的资金回流效应。随着日债利率大幅上行， 经汇率对冲后的美债吸引力对日本投资者而言显著下降。日本寿险公司 和养老金开始减少美债配置，甚至回流头寸以填补国内债市抛售带来的 流动性缺口，从而诱发美债跟随波动，并进而冲击全球金融市场稳定。 （3）往后看，益率的急剧上升促使日本加大口头干预,但日本央行增加 购买国债的可能性仍然很低。中期看，目前日元与利差背离，是因财政 担忧盖过了加息预期。一旦日本政府出面稳定赤字预期，日元可能瞬间 暴涨，引发比 2024 年 8 月更大规模的套息交易平仓，届时美债可能遭 遇 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's decision to begin selling its domestic ETF holdings has led to significant market volatility, with the Japanese yen strengthening and Asian markets experiencing declines [1][2][5]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Policy Changes - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes, which aligns with market expectations [2]. - The announcement of gradually selling domestic ETFs indicates a shift from the ultra-loose monetary policy era initiated during Abe's administration, suggesting a potential tightening of monetary policy [5]. - Analysts predict that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates before January next year, with a 58% probability of a rate hike by the end of the year [5][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Bank of Japan's announcement, the Nikkei index dropped by 1.6%, and other Asian indices, including the Nifty 50 and Southeast Asian markets, also experienced declines [2]. - The strengthening of the yen has been a significant factor contributing to the volatility in equity markets [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Despite some signs of weakness, the Japanese economy is on a path of moderate recovery, with stable private consumption and moderate growth in capital expenditure [5]. - There are concerns that trade policies may slow down Japan's economic growth, but a rebound is expected thereafter [5]. Group 4: Impact of Currency Movements - The potential for yen appreciation due to the normalization of monetary policy could lead to a reversal of carry trade positions, impacting various markets [6]. - Historical data indicates that past reversals of yen carry trades have led to a decline in equity and commodity markets, alongside a weakening dollar index [6][7].

牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限 量发放！先到先得！ 日本又搞事情了！ 午后，日元突然大幅走强，日本股市一度跳水1.6%。亚洲市场也跟随杀跌，恒生科技指数午后明显回调， 韩国股指持续走弱。A股午后也显著走弱。那么，究竟发生了什么？ 分析人士认为，日本央行表示将逐步开始出售其持有的国内股票交易所交易基金。尽管日本央行维持政策 利率不变，但此举表明，尽管人们对美国关税和全球经济影响的担忧日益加剧，日本央行仍将继续收紧政 策。日本央行发布政策决定后，亚太股市受到明显拖累。 日本飞出"黑天鹅 " 9月19日，日本央行在最新的政策会议上决定维持基准利率在0.5%不变，这已是日本央行连续第五次会议 按兵不动，符合市场预期。但日本央行表示将逐步开始出售其持有的国内股票交易所交易基金。这引发了 股市动荡。日经指数一度杀跌1.6%，印度Nifty 50指数跌0.4%，东南亚股指普遍杀跌。 美元兑日元亦大幅走低，这也是引发权益市场动荡的主要原因之一。 在日本央行发出鹰派立场后，日元走强。StoneX的马特·辛普森表示，虽然日本央行按预期维持利率不 变，但央行宣布开始平仓超 ...