1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The long - end interest rate bonds in the bond market in 2025 were restricted by low odds, and the long - end interest rates tried to break through the previous lows multiple times but failed, showing a rounded bottom state. The leverage strategy's effectiveness increased, and there was still a large carry space for medium - and short - duration credit bonds. The performance of major asset classes in 2025 was metal commodities > equities > credit > interest rates [3][5][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Bond Market Trends - **Long - end rate constraints**: Long - end interest rate bonds were restricted by low odds throughout 2025 [3]. - **Multiple attempts to break through lows**: The 10Y Treasury yield attempted to break through the previous low 5 times in 2025 but failed. Different attempts were influenced by factors such as the economic data window period, central bank policies, institutional behavior, and overseas environments [5][6]. - **Leverage strategy effectiveness**: The effectiveness of the leverage strategy increased in 2025, and there was still a large carry space for medium - and short - duration credit bonds. The 10 - 1Y Treasury term spread first compressed and then widened, and the 30Y - 10Y Treasury spread widened after oscillation. The holding experience of long - duration Treasury bonds in Q4 2025 was average, while the volatility of the Wind All - A Index decreased and the returns were stable [9][10][13]. 2025 Performance of Major Asset Classes - The performance ranking of major asset classes in 2025 was metal commodities > equities > credit > interest rates. In Q4 2025, metal commodities outperformed equities, and credit outperformed interest rates [22][23]. 2025 Stock - Bond Performance - The stock - bond performance in 2025 implied relatively high economic growth expectations [24]. Bond Supply and Demand - The supply - demand structure of ultra - long - duration bonds changed, with the net buying volume of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds by funds and insurance companies declining [34]. Fundamentals - The "anti - involution" trend promoted the expectation of rising prices. The report also provided forecasts for PPI and CPI, and presented data on social financing scale and manufacturing PMI [39]. Institutional Behavior - **Fund performance differences**: In 2025, the returns of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds were significantly lower than those of credit bond funds [62]. - **Insurance asset allocation**: In Q3 2025, insurance institutions reduced their allocation of bonds and bank deposits and increased their allocation of equities. The static YTM requirements of insurance institutions for fixed - income assets could be used to infer the corresponding points of 30Y Treasury bonds [67][69]. - **Wealth management product characteristics**: In 2026, wealth management products may have incremental liabilities, but they prefer short - duration assets and have relatively limited leverage utilization. The demand for controlling net - value drawdown of wealth management products may increase [71].

Core Viewpoint - Japanese government bond yields surged due to concerns over demand for ultra-long bonds following a poor auction result for 20-year bonds [1] Group 1: Bond Market Reaction - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 4.5 basis points to 1.525%, marking the highest level since March 28 [1] - The 40-year bond yield rose by 10 basis points to 3.55%, the highest since the issuance of this maturity in 2007 [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The poor auction results highlight ongoing supply-demand weakness in the ultra-long bond sector, raising concerns about who will step in to buy [1] - Brokers and investors appear reluctant to hold existing bonds, increasing the likelihood of a selling spiral that could extend from 20-year bonds to the 10-year and 30-year markets [1]