证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 2025 年 08 月 16 日 供需双承压，但债市仍谨慎 债 券 策 略 相关研究 债 券 研 究 王哲一 A0230123100001 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王哲一 (8621)23297818× wangzy@swsresearch.com ——7 月经济数据点评 ⚫ 消费于今年 5-6 月触顶后持续走弱，促消费相关政策加码效果等待验证。 2025 年 1-7 月社零累计同比增速 4.8%，较 1-6 月下行 0.2pcts; 其中餐饮 零售拖累较大，2025 年 1-7 月餐饮累计同比增速 3.8%，较 1-6 月下行 0.5pcts。我们此前提示 2025 年消费走强更多源于政策补贴，尚未形成居民 收入和消费的良性循环，原因在于 2025 年至今居民新增短贷不强，居民消 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - July CPI year-on-year is 0%, better than the expected -0.1%, indicating stability compared to last year [1] - Month-on-month CPI decreased by 0.1%, weaker than seasonal trends, with food prices showing significant weakness [1] - Core CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, the highest in 1.5 years, driven by demand recovery and the end of commodity subsidies [1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - July PPI year-on-year is -3.6%, below the expected -3.4%, consistent with the previous value [2] - Month-on-month PPI decreased by 0.2%, showing a slight improvement of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Specific industries like oil extraction and processing showed positive month-on-month changes, while non-metallic mining and manufacturing declined [2] Group 3: Macro Economic Outlook - The low CPI and PPI indicate that overall inflation remains low, allowing for a moderately loose monetary policy [3] - The bond market is expected to see a gradual upward correction in convertible bond valuations due to increased demand for fixed income [3] - The issuance pace of local government special bonds may accelerate, creating temporary supply pressure, but strong demand from long-term stable funds remains [3]

证 券 研 究 报 告 增值税新规后，债市交易隐含税率几何？ 证券分析师： 黄伟平 A0230524110002 栾强 A0230524110003 2025.8.10 主要内容 ◼ 通过国债期货走势、地方债新发定价、国开债隐含税率历史经验等多个维度测算的结果表明，债券利息增值税新规后的 可能税率空间或明显低于6%。 ◼ 配合增值税新规实施初期的过渡阶段，货币政策短期有望延续宽松。 ◼ 短期债市或仍有支撑，但赔率空间有限，中期债市或迎逆风。 风险提示：宏观调控力度超预期、金融监管超预期、市场风险偏好超预期、海外环境变化超预期 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 • 国债期货隐含交易增值税率或在0.9%-3.1% • 地方债发行定价的隐含增值税率或在0.9-3.2% • 国开债历史经验来看，后续隐含增值税率可能在0.7%-3.1% • 静态视角测算，稳定状态下增值税新规或带来财政收入2300亿左右。 • 但动态视角来看，财政获得增值税的同时，付息成本一定程度上也会增加。 • 因此，为降低财政成本、增强税收效果，货币政策短期或延续宽松。 • 8-10月份可能是债市颠簸期，中短端可能表现稳健， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the resumption of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, which has led to mixed reactions in the bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The bond futures market showed strong performance, reflecting intense speculation among investors regarding the announcement [1]. - Analysts noted that the demand for existing bonds increased post-announcement, but expectations for a significant decline in interest rates in the short term should be tempered [1]. - The potential widening of the yield spread between new and old bonds could be around 10 basis points due to the VAT implications, although uncertainties remain [1]. Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - The resumption of VAT is expected to narrow the yield spread between credit bonds and interest rate bonds by 30 to 50 basis points, as the tax-exempt advantage of interest rate bonds diminishes [1]. - New government bonds may see an increase in issuance rates by 5 to 10 basis points to compensate for the tax burden, while the attractiveness of existing bonds may rise [1]. - Different tax rates applicable to various financial institutions could lead to differentiated investment behaviors, potentially attracting bank funds into interest rate bonds through broader fund products [1]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Post-August 8, attention will be on the auction results of newly issued government bonds and other influencing factors such as real estate policy adjustments and inflation stabilization [2]. - The macroeconomic environment and market sentiment are expected to stabilize following recent negotiations and meetings, with a focus on domestic fundamentals and liquidity changes [2]. - The weak performance of government bond futures in July was attributed to significant sell-offs triggered by rising stock and commodity markets rather than fundamental changes [2].

国债期货日报 | 2025-07-08 宏观宽松延续，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀 ...

Group 1 - The overall bond market is showing a strong upward trend, supported by the need for economic growth and a stable liquidity environment, despite limited downward space for interest rates due to growth policies [1][7] - Economic fundamentals indicate weak domestic demand, which underpins the bond market's strength, with a mixed performance in production, consumption, investment, and exports [2][7] - The central bank's actions, including large-scale reverse repos, are maintaining a balanced and loose liquidity environment, which supports optimistic market expectations [4][7] Group 2 - Incremental policies are currently in an observation phase, focusing on existing policies and financial tools, with an emphasis on structural monetary policy rather than broad rate cuts [6] - The bond market's focus is shifting towards economic fundamentals and monetary policy changes, with expectations of limited interest rate declines and potential market corrections [7] - The market anticipates a strong performance in short-term and ultra-long-term bonds, with a cautious approach to potential adjustments [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the recent surge in funds into bond funds has led to many fund companies implementing purchase limits to maintain stable operations and protect existing investors' interests [1][2][3] - A total of 186 bond funds from various companies, including China Asset Management and Orient Fund, have announced limits on large purchases since June 1, 2023 [1][2] - The limits vary significantly, with some funds setting thresholds as low as 1,000 yuan and 10,000 yuan for single purchases, which may impact ordinary investors [2][3] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield has shown fluctuations, dropping to approximately 1.65% as of June 11, 2023, after peaking at 1.88% in mid-March [4][5] - Despite a strong bond market last year, the overall scale of bond funds decreased by about 286.3 billion yuan to approximately 6.56 trillion yuan by the end of April 2023 [4] - Institutions are optimistic about the short-term outlook for the bond market but remain cautious in the long term, citing various economic indicators and uncertainties in the market [5]

Industry and Regulatory Dynamics - On May 23, the Financial Regulatory Bureau released the "Management Measures for Information Disclosure of Asset Management Products of Banking and Insurance Institutions (Draft for Comments)", aiming to standardize information disclosure for public bank wealth management products [4] - Several wealth management companies have responded to regulatory calls by joining the Insurance Asset Management Association, with five companies including Huaxia Wealth Management and Agricultural Bank Wealth Management becoming members as of May 27 [4] Fee Rate Adjustments - Multiple wealth management companies, including Bank of China, Industrial Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Everbright Bank, announced reductions in fees for various wealth management products, affecting management fees, sales service fees, and custody fees [5][6] Innovation in the Industry - Xingyin Wealth Management launched a humanoid robot-themed product "Ruili Xinghe Huaxia Humanoid Robot 6M Holding No. 1 A", which aims to achieve excess returns through active stock selection and model enhancement based on the China Securities Robot Index [7] - China Merchants Bank Wealth Management introduced the Antai ESG Technology-themed wealth management product, aligning with the policy direction of "green finance" and "technology finance" [7] - Pudong Development Bank Wealth Management issued its first aid to Tibet-themed product "Aid to Tibet Exclusive - Enjoying Benefits Closed No. 372", which quickly sold out with a fundraising limit of 50 million [7] Yield Performance - Last week, cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.44%, unchanged from the previous week, while money market funds reported a 7-day annualized yield of 1.36%, down 1 basis point [8] - The yield of pure fixed income and fixed income + products across various maturities fell to varying degrees, with interest rate bonds showing overall fluctuations and credit spreads continuing to converge [9] Net Asset Value Tracking - The net asset value (NAV) ratio of bank wealth management products was 1.29% last week, an increase of 0.29% from the previous week, indicating a slight divergence from credit spreads, although the NAV ratio remains low [14]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a combination of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions to stimulate the economy, with expectations of releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity into the financial market [1][2]. Monetary Policy Measures - The PBOC has reduced the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.50% to 1.40% effective May 8, 2023 [1][2]. - The RRR for financial institutions will be lowered by 0.5 percentage points starting May 15, 2023, bringing the average RRR down from 6.6% to 6.2% [2]. - Specific measures include reducing the RRR for auto finance and financial leasing companies to 0%, enhancing credit supply in targeted sectors [2]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the bond market exhibited mixed performance, with long-term bonds showing an upward trend in yields while short-term bonds experienced a decline [1][4]. - The 30-year government bond futures and 10-year government bond futures initially fell but later stabilized, indicating a volatile market response [4][7]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current monetary policy environment is supportive for the bond market, with expectations of further downward pressure on short-term rates due to increased liquidity [9][10]. - The market is anticipated to focus on the interplay between monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, with potential opportunities in short-term rates and credit bonds [10][11].

Monetary Policy Measures - The central bank announced a comprehensive package of ten policy measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates, along with a 0.25 percentage point decrease in the rates for structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans [1][2] - The reduction in reserve requirements is expected to release 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, which will help alleviate the pressure on banks' liabilities and lower borrowing costs [1][3] Economic Context - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by external demand pressure, internal demand differentiation, and structural support, with the manufacturing PMI in April dropping to 49.0%, indicating weakening economic conditions [2][4] - The recent "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the U.S. have significantly impacted global trade and China's export outlook, serving as a core trigger for the recent monetary policy easing [2][4] Market Implications - The dual reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates is expected to lead to a downward trend in funding rates, particularly benefiting short-term rates while long-term rates may face challenges due to pricing pressures [1][4] - The 10-year government bond yield is currently around 1.62%, with expectations that it could approach 1.5% as the market adjusts to the new monetary policy landscape [5] Future Outlook - The upcoming LPR quotation on May 20 will be crucial; a significant reduction in the 5-year and above LPR could open up trading opportunities in long-term bonds [5] - The government's new urbanization strategy is projected to create approximately 4 trillion yuan in investment demand, indicating ongoing fiscal support alongside monetary easing [2][3]