多空互加筹码，债市迎来"验牌时刻" 证券研究报告/固收专题报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 报告摘要 近两周以来，债市的行情不断修复。尤其是以二永、10 年内期限为代表的配置型品种 来说，债市短期已经走出了非熊的局面。随着 T、TL、30 年现券的不断修复，但 30 年国债活跃券借贷量仍然在大幅度提高，空头和多头都在互扔筹码，多空决战临近"验 牌时刻"： 分析师：严伶怡 执业证书编号：S0740525070001 Email：yanly@zts.com.cn Email：suht@zts.com.cn 铜价仍有支撑》2026-02-05 2、《如何在定位和投资上做好一只 "固收+"》2026-02-05 执业证书编号：S0740524070004 Email：youyong@zts.com.cn 好？》2026-02-04 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 债券市场多空都有自信，正在互加筹码 分析师：游勇 空方：在中期与短期的逻辑可能都具有较强的完备性。比如，科技行业带动各类资产 的涨价逻辑与债市自身 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that since mid-December, the bond market has experienced a rapid correction primarily due to the absence of institutional long positions and the emergence of short positions [4][8] - The report highlights that the cost of shorting has significantly decreased in 2025, leading to increased motivation for institutions to engage in short selling during periods of weak market sentiment [10][11] - The report notes that the bond market is facing structural issues with insufficient allocation power, as institutional investors are less active in positioning ahead of year-end [8][11] Group 2 - The report identifies three signs of a retreat in short selling momentum since December 17: a noticeable trend of short positions taking profits, a decline in bond borrowing volumes, and the resilience of local government bonds [23][24][26] - The report suggests that the bond market may enter a new equilibrium phase as short selling momentum diminishes, with a lack of drivers for further interest rate declines [27][28] - The report emphasizes that the current yield curve is becoming steeper, and the long-end spread is expected to stabilize around 40 basis points [27][28] Group 3 - The report provides a weekly recap of the bond market, indicating that the central bank conducted reverse repos totaling 6,575 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 110 billion yuan [32][33] - The report states that the yields on various government bonds have generally decreased, with the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year yields down by 2.0bp, 2.6bp, 0.9bp, and 2.4bp respectively [34][35] - The report mentions that the bond market is expected to return to a range-bound trading pattern, focusing on short-term trading strategies [28][31] Group 4 - The report indicates that the yield spreads for government bonds across various maturities have mostly expanded, while the spreads for local government bonds show mixed trends [43][44] - The report highlights that credit spreads for various types of corporate bonds have generally widened, although the 10-year spreads relative to government bonds have narrowed [45]