2025 年债市框架培训 20250828 摘要 基本面是债券市场定价的决定性因素，包括价格和增长。货币政策通过 流动性传导影响中长期债市，短期则受货币条件操作和政策落地影响。 机构投资者行为和外部市场变化的影响日益显著。 低利率环境下，公募基金购买长久期国债比例上升，反映了投资逻辑从 票息收益转向资本利得。十年期以上国债占比快速上升至 40%左右，信 用债市场也需关注这一趋势。 判断影响债券市场的主要因素需关注边际变化，例如风险偏好或流动性 的剧烈变化。2013 年"钱荒"事件后，流动性受到更多关注，资金价 格成为重要指标。 降息并非总是利好债市，需区分狭义和广义流动性。降低 OMO 利率通 常利好债市，而降低 LPR 可能对实体经济更有利，对债市产生负面影响。 贸易摩擦主要通过风险偏好和情绪扰动影响债市，政策对冲也会发挥作 用。疫情打乱了经济节奏，对基本面数据分析框架造成扰动，需重新审 视分析框架及其因素。 Q&A 如何看待债券市场的影响因素及其变化？ 债券市场的影响因素是持续迭代的。最初，债券分析较为简单，主要通过单一 或两个因素即可看清市场。但随着时间推移，特别是对于刚开始关注债市或从 权益转向固收加 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report In April 2025, the overall wealth index return of the domestic RMB bond market increased. Interest rate bond yields declined, and long - term interest rate bond indices performed well. Credit bond yields also decreased, with positive overall wealth index returns, and the spreads between various industries and treasury bonds narrowed. The green bond market had positive returns and stable scale [8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. This Month's Bond Market Review - The overall wealth index return of the domestic RMB bond market rose. Interest rate bond yields declined, and long - term interest rate bond indices performed well. Credit bond yields decreased, and the overall wealth index return was positive. The spreads between various industries and treasury bonds narrowed [8]. - The net price index and wealth index returns of the ChinaBond - New Composite Index were 0.93% and 1.14% respectively. The corresponding returns of the ChinaBond - Investment Preferred Composite Index were 0.89% and 1.10%. The returns of the ChinaBond - Investment Preferred Treasury Bond Index were 0.90% and 1.09%, and those of the ChinaBond - Investment Preferred Credit Bond Index were 0.23% and 0.45% [8]. - The market volatility slightly increased, with the monthly standard deviation of the daily return of the ChinaBond - New Composite wealth index at about 0.139%, up 0.011 percentage points from last month. The monthly trading volume slightly decreased to about 24.48 trillion yuan [10]. - The overall return of the Chinese green bond market was positive. The wealth index return of the ChinaBond - China Green Bond Index was 1.25%. The market scale remained stable, with the market value of "green - oriented" bonds at 6.47 trillion yuan, up 2.78% from last month [14]. 2. This Month's Interest Rate Bond Market Review - At the end of the month, treasury bond yields declined overall, and the term spread of treasury bonds slightly narrowed. The spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds fluctuated slightly [18]. - The wealth index of the ChinaBond - Aggregate Index, which reflects the overall trend of the RMB interest rate bond market, rose 1.22%. Long - term treasury bond indices had slightly stronger returns. The ChinaBond - Investment Preferred Treasury Bond Index performed better than the ChinaBond - Investment Preferred Policy Financial Bond Index [24]. - In the interest rate bond indices, long - term interest rate bond indices performed well. For example, the ChinaBond - 30 - Year Treasury Bond Index had a return of 4.19% [28][29]. 3. This Month's Credit Bond Market Review - Credit bond yields declined, and the overall wealth index return of the credit bond market was positive. The wealth index of the ChinaBond - Credit Bond Aggregate Index rose 0.36% [32]. - Currently, the spreads of high - grade credit bonds slightly widened. Taking the 3 - year period as an example, the spreads between the yield curves of AAA, AAA -, AA +, and AA - rated ChinaBond enterprise bonds and treasury bonds were at the 36%, 35%, 35%, and 27% percentiles of the past 3 years respectively [35]. - This month, the spreads between various industries and treasury bonds narrowed. All industries had positive wealth index returns, and the ChinaBond - Real Estate Industry Credit Bond Index had a return of about 0.55%, performing the best [38]. - The credit bond index returns were generally positive. The ChinaBond - China Railway Bond Index and the secondary capital bond index performed well [42]. - In terms of risk statistics, 3 new default issuers and 20 new default bonds emerged this month, with a remaining scale of 251.84 billion yuan [46]. 4. Appendix: Correlation of Returns of Major Types of Bonds The report presents the correlation coefficients of the daily wealth index returns of different bond indices in the past 3 months as of April 30, 2025 [50].