Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced significant price fluctuations in the first half of the year, with prices reaching historical highs, driven by various factors including U.S. tariff policies, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases of gold [2][5][6]. Group 1: Price Trends - In the first half of the year, gold prices saw a maximum increase of over 30%, outperforming most asset classes, with London spot gold rising from $2657.195 to $3302.155 per ounce, a gain of 24.27% [2][5]. - On April 22, both London and Shanghai gold prices hit record highs, with London spot gold reaching $3500.12 per ounce and Shanghai gold at 834.6 yuan per gram [3][4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The increase in gold prices was primarily influenced by uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies, geopolitical risks, and ongoing purchases by emerging market central banks [5][6]. - A significant inflow into gold ETFs was noted, with global gold ETF net inflows reaching 115.3 tons in April, marking the highest since August 2022, and China’s market seeing a record inflow of 64.8 tons [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts predict that while the long-term fundamentals supporting gold prices remain unchanged, the second half of the year may not replicate the record highs of the first half, with price movements likely influenced by U.S. macroeconomic data [7][8]. - The anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and continued central bank purchases of gold are expected to support gold prices, with forecasts suggesting a trading range for London spot gold between $2900 and $3600 per ounce [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that while gold is often regarded as a safe-haven asset, its risk-hedging capabilities are not absolute and are influenced by various market conditions and investor behavior [2][7]. - Gold has historically demonstrated stability during crises, such as wars and economic downturns, due to its scarcity and physical properties, which contribute to its demand as a tangible asset [3][4]. - The negative correlation between gold and the US dollar enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, particularly during periods of dollar weakness [4]. Group 2 - Despite its reputation, gold is not immune to market volatility; during liquidity crises, investors may sell gold along with other assets, leading to price declines [4][5]. - Gold lacks yield generation, making it less attractive during periods of economic growth when investors may prefer higher-return assets like stocks and bonds [5]. - Market supply and demand fluctuations significantly impact gold prices, with changes in jewelry demand and ETF inflows/outflows being critical factors [5][6]. Group 3 - Liquidity risks in the gold market can affect trading conditions, with wider bid-ask spreads during extreme market conditions, complicating transactions [6]. - Investor behavior and market psychology play a crucial role in gold price movements, often driven by short-term speculation rather than fundamental factors [6]. - Gold's role in a diversified investment portfolio is to reduce overall risk, but over-reliance on gold can lead to insufficient returns, especially in bull markets [7].