ABN Amro Bank NV固定收益交易主管Arif Kallan警告称：欧洲某些主要买家对长期利率对冲的需求崩 塌，恐将引发债券市场动荡。 "我们预计过渡日期前后仍会出现很大的波动……我从事欧元利率掉期交易近15年，长期市场的供需失 衡非常严重。"（彭博） 荷兰养老基金行业（对需求具有支撑作用）正转型为固定缴款模式，而非固定收益制。 虽然这是一个循序渐进的过程，但仍然会在那些关键性的交易日期前后形成干扰。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent 30-year Japanese government bond auction is seen as a test for policymakers to stabilize the bond market after significant volatility, with long-term bond yields reaching historical highs in May [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - Japanese bond yields have decreased from their peak due to the Ministry of Finance's strategy to reduce the issuance of long-term bonds and the Bank of Japan slowing down its bond purchase reductions [1] - There is a cautious market sentiment, particularly regarding the 30-year bonds, as global scrutiny on long-term bonds increases amid rising government deficits [1][3] - The demand for Japanese long-term bonds is weakening, reflecting a decrease in purchases by traditional buyers like life insurance companies [1] Group 2: Auction Insights and Expectations - The upcoming auction results will be closely monitored, particularly the bid-to-cover ratio, which indicates investor demand; the last auction had a ratio of 2.92, below the average of 3.33 over the past year [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to cut the issuance of 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year bonds by 3.2 trillion yen (approximately 22 billion USD) by the end of March 2026 [6] Group 3: Political and Economic Context - The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming national elections in Japan may suppress demand for the bond auction, as potential changes in fiscal policy could arise depending on election outcomes [7] - The Prime Minister has prioritized salary increases and achieving a 1 trillion yen economic target as key campaign promises, which may influence market dynamics [7]

亿万富翁投资者、桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧在其新书中写道，美国近期爆发债务危机的风险较低，但 长期风险很高。 达利欧写道："尽管这种演变在历史上发生过很多次，但大多数政策制定者和投资者认为他们目前的处 境和货币体系不会改变。这种改变是难以想象的——然后它突然发生了。" 更高的赤字意味着美国财政部可能需要出售更多债券，为其支出和利息支付提供资金。债务"死亡螺 旋"描述的是这样一种情况：政府需要发行更多债券来筹集资金偿还现有债务，但却面临更少的需求， 不得不向投资者支付越来越多的利息才能吸引他们购买。 达利欧写道："利率上升导致信用风险恶化，进而导致债务需求减少，最终导致利率进一步上升的螺 旋，是经典的债务'死亡螺旋'。" 投资者要求向政府贷款的更高回报要求，将导致国家运营资金减少，增加消费者和企业的利率，并通常 使一个国家筹集现金的选择更少。 他在这本周二出版的新书《国家如何破产：大周期》（"How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle"）中写 道，美国政府的债务状况"正接近不归路"，并逼近可能威胁全球最大经济体稳定的"死亡螺旋"。 一些经济学家和投资者多年来一直对赤字发出警告。但今 ...