历时43天的美国联邦政府"停摆"终于在上周三（11月12日）画下句点。美国参众两院达成共识并通过临 时拨款法案，随后由总统特朗普签署，使得这场史无前例的政治僵局暂告结束。接下来，美国政府面临繁 重的"开机"任务：补发数周欠薪、重启积压的拨款与贷款申请、恢复庞大的行政服务。交通部长 Sean Duffy 表示，航班限制将在一周内逐步解除，恰逢感恩节出行高峰。而国会预算办公室（CBO）预计，六 周停摆将使四季度GDP下滑1.5个百分点，造成约110亿美元净损失。 而值得注意的是，这份临时法案只能让大部分政府机构获得运作资金至2026年1月30日，医保福利支出的 核心分歧也并未彻底解决，为数月内下一次政府"停摆"之争又埋下了伏笔。 "停摆"常态化背后： 债务灰犀牛全面冲击财政体系 其次，政府重启开门后，前期市场担忧的流动性状况有望进一步改善。由于大量发债以及政府关门，财政 部普通账户（TGA）余额从7月的3000亿美元上升至11月的近万亿美元。随着政府结束停摆，前期财政部 TGA账户吸收的巨额现金有望部分得到释放，缓解前期市场流动性不足的局面，当前担保隔夜融资利率 （SOFR）相对联邦基金利率（EFFR）、超额准备 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government has entered a shutdown due to a failure to reach an agreement on a temporary funding bill, affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees and public services [1][2] - The shutdown is expected to impact the release of key economic data, including non-farm payroll figures, which will not be published during this period, leading to increased market uncertainty [1][3] - The political polarization in the U.S. has intensified, with the Trump administration suggesting potential permanent layoffs of federal employees, which could exacerbate economic impacts and raise concerns about governance [2][3] Group 2 - Historical context shows that government shutdowns have occurred over twenty times since the 1970s, with significant economic losses, such as the previous shutdown costing over $10 billion [3] - The U.S. faces a growing debt issue, with budget deficits exceeding 6% of GDP in recent years, raising concerns about a potential fiscal cliff as the government approaches unsustainable debt levels [3]