Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. government shutdown, lasting 43 days, has ended with a temporary funding bill, but underlying issues such as rising debt and political conflicts remain unresolved, posing risks for future stability [1][4][8]. Group 1: Government Shutdown and Economic Impact - The shutdown concluded on November 12, with a temporary funding bill allowing most government agencies to operate until January 30, 2026, but core disagreements on healthcare spending persist, indicating potential future shutdowns [3][5]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the six-week shutdown will reduce Q4 GDP by 1.5 percentage points, resulting in a net loss of approximately $11 billion [1][6]. Group 2: Debt and Fiscal Risks - The shutdown has highlighted the escalating U.S. debt crisis, with public debt projected to rise from 122% of GDP in 2024 to 143% by 2030, significantly above the average for developed economies [4]. - During the shutdown, U.S. government debt increased from $37.4 trillion to $38 trillion, exacerbating fiscal risks and limiting investments in critical areas such as education and infrastructure [4][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Post-shutdown, the market is focused on the timely release of economic data, particularly for October, which may be delayed or noisy, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates [6][7]. - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has surged from $300 billion in July to nearly $1 trillion in November, suggesting improved liquidity conditions as the government reopens [7]. - Political tensions between the Republican and Democratic parties remain, with a 30% market expectation of another shutdown by the end of January 2026, as both parties may leverage the situation for negotiations [7][8].

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government has entered a shutdown due to a failure to reach an agreement on a temporary funding bill, affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees and public services [1][2] - The shutdown is expected to impact the release of key economic data, including non-farm payroll figures, which will not be published during this period, leading to increased market uncertainty [1][3] - The political polarization in the U.S. has intensified, with the Trump administration suggesting potential permanent layoffs of federal employees, which could exacerbate economic impacts and raise concerns about governance [2][3] Group 2 - Historical context shows that government shutdowns have occurred over twenty times since the 1970s, with significant economic losses, such as the previous shutdown costing over $10 billion [3] - The U.S. faces a growing debt issue, with budget deficits exceeding 6% of GDP in recent years, raising concerns about a potential fiscal cliff as the government approaches unsustainable debt levels [3]