编辑 | 李莹亮 曾静娇 10月1日晚，美股三大指数集体低开，中概股逆势上涨，黄金短线波动，白银继续强势走高，美元指数、美债收益率出现跳水。 美联储1 0月降息概率升至9 9% 中概股逆势上涨 记者 | 吴斌 金珊 截至北京时间22时20分，道琼斯指数涨0.08%，标普500指数跌0.12%，纳斯达克综合指数跌0.1%。 | 热门科技股涨跌不一。其中，脸书跌超2%。 | | --- | 中概股逆势上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.58%，热门个股方面，京东集团涨3%、唯品会涨2%，BOSS直聘、爱奇艺跌超1%。 美债收益率出现跳水，10年期美债收益率跌5.6个基点。 | 10Y 美国国债 | 4.092 | -5.60 | | --- | --- | --- | | 10YRNOTE.GBM | | | | 1M 美国国债 | 4.072 | -3.11 | | 1MOBILL.GBM | | | | 2M 美国国债 | 4.058 | -0.89 | | 2MOBILL.GBM | | | | 3M 美国国债 | 3.932 | -0.04 | | 3MOBILL.GBM | | | | 4M 美国国债 4M ...

随着民主党和共和党谈判破裂，美国政府被迫"关门"。 据新华社报道，当地时间10月1日0时，美国联邦政府时隔近七年再度"停摆"。数十万联邦雇员被迫无薪 休假，部分公共服务或暂停、延迟，经济数据发布将受到影响。此前，美国两党因医保福利方面分歧， 未能就新的临时拨款法案达成一致。 此次美国政府停摆基本在预期中。央视新闻报道称，当地时间9月30日晚，白宫管理和预算办公室 （OMB）主任沃特发布备忘录，指示各政府机构开始执行其"有序停摆"的预案。不受影响的部门包括 军方、联邦调查局和国土安全部等执法部门、联邦航空管理局和邮政局等。 警惕"财政悬崖" 美国联邦政府因两党政治博弈而关门在历史上并不少见。20世纪70年代以来，美国联邦政府因共和、民 主两党政策分歧导致拨款中断而"停摆"已有二十多次。 上一次也是最长的一次"停摆"发生在2018年年底至2019年年初，特朗普第一任期内，民主党反对特朗普 提出的美墨边境墙项目拨款，两党在移民问题上争斗不休，导致政府关门五周。当时大约四分之一的联 邦政府机构"关门"持续五周，殃及80多万名政府雇员，经济损失估计超过100亿美元。 政治极化现象愈演愈烈 随着政治极化加剧， 美国政府" ...

Group 1 - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, reaching $37,004,817,625,842 as of August 12, highlighting the severe fiscal situation of the U.S. government [1] - Continuous fiscal deficits have led to an expanding debt burden, which poses a long-term threat to national fiscal stability, described as a "ticking time bomb" for the U.S. economy [3] - The U.S. Congress has passed a large tax and spending bill that extends tax cuts from 2017, which is expected to increase the national debt by over $3 trillion [4] Group 2 - The U.S. Federal Budget Accountability Committee has expressed concerns over the new tax and spending bill, labeling it a blatant disregard for fiscal responsibility [4] - The accumulation of government debt could lead to a loss of investor confidence in the government's ability to manage fiscal conditions, potentially affecting demand for U.S. Treasury securities [3] - High interest rates may suppress private investment and consumption, further impacting economic growth negatively [3]

Group 1 - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, reaching $37,004,817,625,842 as of August 12 [1] - The U.S. Congressional Budget Accountability Committee warns that recent legislation passed by the House will significantly increase federal debt by over $3 trillion [2] - Concerns are raised regarding the sustainability of U.S. Treasury securities as investors begin to question their safety amid unusual market trends [3] Group 2 - The recent tax and spending bill extends tax cuts from the Trump administration and increases defense spending, while cutting funding for green energy initiatives [2] - Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen highlights the chaotic nature of current tariff policies, contributing to uncertainty for American households and businesses [3] - Public sentiment shows that over half of Americans disapprove of the tariffs imposed by President Trump, fearing negative impacts on the economy [3]

Macro Strategy - The "Great Beautiful Act" has been quickly implemented, but its distribution effects and the tightening fiscal impact from excluding extended and expanded tax cuts limit its growth stimulus for the US economy [1][24] - The act's characteristic of "increasing deficits first, reducing deficits later" implies a risk of a "fiscal cliff" around 2028 [1][24] - In the short term, concerns about the impact of US Treasury issuance on market liquidity and yield premiums are not excessive; however, the long-term path dependency of unsustainable US government debt makes it difficult for Treasury yield premiums to decrease [1][24] Fixed Income - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident as the stock market stabilizes, influencing bond yields; the 10-year government bond yield rose from 1.641% to 1.666% during the week [3][5] - The bond market's reaction to Trump's threats of additional tariffs on BRICS countries was muted, indicating a limited impact on bond yields [3][5] - The bond yield's upward trend is expected to continue, influenced by stock market performance, but the extent of the increase is likely to be limited [5] Industry Insights - Wanda Film's diversified layout in esports and concert live streaming is expected to create new growth points, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.0 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.44 billion yuan, respectively [8] - Lianlian Digital is projected to achieve a reasonable P/S valuation of 8.0x and 7.0x for 2025 and 2026, respectively, as it continues to expand its business [10] - Youyou Foods has revised its profit forecast upwards, expecting net profits of 232 million, 285 million, and 329 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a growth rate of 47.2%, 23.2%, and 15.3% [11] - Siyi Electric's net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 1.293 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46%, driven by strong overseas orders [14][15] - The energy sector, represented by Furan Energy, anticipates stable growth in natural gas supply and a steady increase in new energy business, with net profit forecasts of 872 million, 922 million, and 976 million yuan for 2025-2027 [12] - The lithium battery sector, represented by Weilan Lithium Core, has revised its profit expectations upwards, forecasting net profits of 750 million, 1 billion, and 1.31 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting significant growth [13] - The pharmaceutical sector, represented by Lianbang Pharmaceutical, is expected to see revenue growth driven by innovative drug development, with net profits projected at 3.11 billion, 3.10 billion, and 3.38 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" has been implemented rapidly, but its impact on U.S. growth is limited due to significant distribution effects and a tightening fiscal effect from excluding extended and expanded tax cuts. The act's characteristic of "increasing deficits first, reducing deficits later" implies a risk of a "fiscal cliff" around 2028 [1][6][29] - The legislative process was expedited due to Trump's strong influence within the Republican Party and effective utilization of legislative rules, allowing the act to be signed into law just 45 days after its introduction [7][10] - The act primarily extends existing tax cuts, leading to an estimated additional $3.85 trillion in fiscal deficits over the next decade, while incremental policies result in a marginal tightening effect, with a projected surplus of $0.49 trillion [12][18][23] Group 2 - The budget and economic effects of the act raise concerns about the sustainability of U.S. public debt, with the potential for a "fiscal cliff" risk emerging around 2028 due to the act's structure of increasing deficits initially [29][32] - The economic impact of the act is assessed as limited, with various institutions estimating its cumulative effect on U.S. GDP over ten years to be around 0.1% to 0.3%, indicating a long-term neutral effect with significant distributional impacts [37][41][43] - Tariff revenues are expected to partially offset the act's budgetary and economic effects, with projections suggesting that tariff income could reduce the fiscal deficit by approximately $2.8 trillion over the next decade, potentially covering 68% of the act's total cost [45][50][53] Group 3 - Concerns regarding U.S. Treasury supply shocks post-implementation of the act are analyzed across three time dimensions, indicating that the immediate impact on market liquidity and long-term yield premiums is manageable [54][56] - The act raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, allowing the Treasury to issue additional bonds, which may lead to short-term liquidity tightening but is expected to be controlled in the third quarter of the year [56][58] - The long-term trajectory of U.S. debt sustainability remains a challenge, with the act's passage indicating a strong path dependency on debt expansion, suggesting that long-term Treasury yields may face upward pressure [60]

Core Viewpoint - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warns that the "Big and Beautiful" plan promoted by the Trump administration is pushing the U.S. towards a fiscal cliff, potentially undermining the dollar's dominance and reshaping the global economic order [1][2] Group 1: Fiscal Implications - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the plan will add $2.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, but Summers' dynamic modeling suggests the actual debt increase could exceed $4 trillion when accounting for temporary tax measure extensions and interest effects [1] - Annual fiscal deficit rates are projected to exceed 7% of GDP, surpassing the dangerous threshold of 6% observed in recent years [1] Group 2: Contributing Factors - The aging population is expected to increase welfare spending significantly, with Social Security funds projected to be depleted by 2029 [1] - Government healthcare spending is growing at twice the rate of economic growth, potentially reaching 20% of GDP by 2025 [1] - Rising interest rates, with 30-year U.S. Treasury yields exceeding 5%, have led to debt servicing costs surpassing military expenditures [1] Group 3: Global Economic Concerns - As the largest debtor nation, the U.S. faces a monetary dilemma of maintaining the dollar's reserve status while issuing massive amounts of debt to cover deficits [2] - If U.S. debt surpasses $40 trillion, international confidence in the dollar may falter, leading to rapid selling of U.S. bonds by central banks [2] - The Trump economic team believes a 3.5% GDP growth rate combined with 10% tariff revenue can resolve the debt crisis, but models indicate that tariffs could raise core PCE inflation by 1.2 percentage points [2] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Summers supports the proposal to eliminate the debt ceiling but emphasizes that restoring fiscal discipline requires tax reform, including closing loopholes for multinational corporations and implementing a digital services tax [2] - The upcoming Senate vote on the plan has prompted global central banks to initiate emergency measures, indicating the high stakes involved in maintaining dollar supremacy [2]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk publicly criticized the large-scale spending bill proposed by the Republican Party, calling it "disgusting" and stating that it would exacerbate the already significant U.S. federal deficit, which he estimated could reach $2.5 trillion [2][10]. Group 1: Musk's Criticism - Musk expressed his frustration on social media, labeling the spending bill as absurd and filled with political manipulation, and stated that those who supported it were shameful [2][4]. - He highlighted that the U.S. government's budget deficit has increased from $236 billion in 2000 to $1.83 trillion in 2024, a growth of over 6.7 times [2][10]. Group 2: Legislative Context - The spending bill, referred to as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," narrowly passed in the House of Representatives by a single vote [10]. - The bill aims to extend tax cuts from Trump's first term, increase the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, and impose work requirements on Medicaid, among other provisions [11]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The Congressional Budget Office predicted that the bill would add $2.3 trillion to the national debt, with a potential increase in the debt exceeding $3 trillion [11]. - The bill is expected to reduce resources for the lowest-income households by 4% while increasing resources for the highest-income households by 2% [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the U.S. Treasury bond market, highlighting the significant fluctuations in yields and the underlying factors driving these changes, particularly the impact of tax legislation and fiscal concerns [2][6][10]. Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged above 5.1%, nearing a 20-year high, before experiencing a notable drop below 5% on May 27, marking the largest single-day decline since March [2][5]. - On May 27, yields across various maturities fell, with the 30-year yield decreasing by 8.65 basis points to 4.951% [5]. - Following a brief recovery, yields rose again on May 28 due to disappointing results from a Japanese bond auction, with the 10-year yield approaching 4.5% and the 30-year yield again challenging the 5% mark [5][8]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Yield Fluctuations - The volatility in U.S. Treasury yields has been primarily driven by fiscal factors, including a proposed tax cut legislation and disappointing results from Japanese bond auctions [6][10]. - The U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed a significant tax and spending bill, which is expected to exacerbate the federal deficit, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [10][11]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the proposed tax cuts could increase the federal debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, contributing to a potential "fiscal cliff" scenario [12]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Despite a temporary easing of market concerns following a successful auction of two-year Treasury bonds, long-term worries about U.S. fiscal health remain prevalent [15]. - Analysts warn that the proposed tax cuts could lead to a significant increase in the federal deficit, with projections indicating a deficit increase of $614 billion in 2026 and $561 billion in 2027 [16]. - The relationship between the U.S. deficit and Treasury yields is expected to remain stable, with a 1% increase in the deficit correlating to a 0.78% rise in 10-year Treasury yields [16].

Group 1 - The current U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 120% [1] - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, indicating concerns over fiscal sustainability [1] - The U.S. fiscal deficit reached $1.147 trillion in the first five months of fiscal 2025, a 38% year-on-year increase, with interest payments rising 10% to $478 billion [1] Group 2 - Short-term predictions for 30-year U.S. Treasury yields are expected to remain between 5% and 5.5%, while 10-year yields are projected to fluctuate between 4.5% and 5% [2] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for 10-year Treasury yields to 4.5%, driven by sustained economic growth and a tight labor market [2] - Long-term projections suggest that if the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 130%, 10-year yields could challenge 6% [2] Group 3 - High Treasury yields are expected to impact global financial markets, leading to a revaluation of corporate debt and increased financing costs [4] - The weakening of U.S. Treasury credit may accelerate diversification of foreign exchange reserves among central banks [4] - U.S. unilateral tariffs are causing trade partners to retaliate, increasing global supply chain costs and potentially reducing global economic growth [4] Group 4 - China is advised to reduce its concentration in U.S. Treasuries by increasing allocations to gold and non-U.S. sovereign debt [6] - There is a focus on reducing long-term U.S. Treasury exposure and increasing investments in inflation-protected securities [6] - China is encouraged to promote the expansion of the IMF and the use of multilateral clearing systems to decrease reliance on the U.S. dollar [6]