倒春寒 2026年债券基金开局遇冷，在长端利率上行背景下，全市场超四成纯债型基金未能实现正收益，中长期品种成 为调整"重灾区"，约1600只产品未获正收益，在所有中长期纯债基中占比接近五成。市场表现疲软也引发资金 显著流出。 拉长时间线看，近一年债券基金平均收益率仅为1.83%，较上年同期近乎"腰斩"，2025年全年中长期纯债基平均 收益率甚至低于货币基金。与纯债产品普遍承压形成对比，可转债基金表现亮眼，多只产品年内涨幅超20%。 分析认为，收益率回撤主要受利率上行、机构久期错配及股市资金分流等多重因素影响。展望后市，机构普遍 认为债市将进入宽幅震荡阶段，收益率下行空间有限但大幅上行风险可控。在当前市场环境下，采取稳健的票 息策略或比交易型策略更具配置价值。 债基未迎"开门红"，中长期产品成重灾区 债基未能迎来2026年"开门红"。在长端收益率明显上行的影响下，约半数中长期纯债型基金今年以来未能实现 正收益。 Wind数据显示，全市场4500多只纯债型基金（份额分开计算）中，约1780只基金今年以来回报为零或为负，占 比达40%。其中，中长期纯债型基金成为下跌主力，约1600只产品未获正收益，在所有中长期纯债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing intensified volatility and challenges, with banks facing difficulties in bond investments and adjusting their strategies accordingly [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market is currently in a state of wide fluctuations, with the ten-year government bond yield oscillating between 1.85% and 1.9%, reflecting increased volatility [3]. - After the implementation of new tax regulations on bond interest, the attractiveness of bonds has decreased, leading to a potential reallocation of assets towards equities and other investments [2]. - In August, the trading volume of bonds declined significantly, with state-owned banks trading approximately 3.568 trillion yuan and joint-stock banks trading about 11.232 trillion yuan, marking a drop from previous months [2]. Group 2: Bank Performance - In the first half of the year, over 80% of A-share listed banks reported positive growth in investment income, with an average increase exceeding 45%, primarily driven by the realization of bond floating profits [5][6]. - Notably, the China Construction Bank achieved an investment income of 27.912 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 200%, significantly contributing to its revenue [6]. - However, many banks are experiencing a decline in non-interest income due to the challenging market conditions, with some reporting negative growth [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Banks are adjusting their investment strategies in response to the volatile bond market, focusing on wave trading and increasing the use of derivative instruments for hedging [9][10]. - The Postal Savings Bank has adopted a more flexible asset-liability strategy, actively expanding its balance sheet to capture income opportunities amid market fluctuations [9]. - The overall sentiment among bank executives is cautious regarding the sustainability of investment income growth in the second half of the year [3][4].