文章来源：用益研究 撕掉旧标签 信托何以"无可替代"？ 2026年我们或许会见证"温和的分流"：普通投资者将更审慎地选择信托产品，把注意力转向其他资管渠 道；信托公司将一头扎进专业的深水区，用硬核服务能力换取高净值客户的长期托付。 业内观点： 1、现在独立研究、依据市场口碑作出选择的客户占据主流，理财顾问的作用变得很有限。客户的产品 筛选标准已变得极致严苛，对任何负面舆情都会"一票否决"。 2、专业、合规将是2026年行业发展的关键词。本源业务发展逻辑与传统放贷模式完全不同。行业现在 缺的不是项目，而是能搞定这些复杂事务的专业人才。未来，谁能真正为高净值客户解决复杂的法律、 税务、传承等综合性问题，谁才可能建立护城河。 3、对于投资者而言，2026年需要更新认知：信托或许正在撕掉"大众理财产品"的旧标签，转而锚定综 合金融解决方案提供者的新定位。2026年，若为博取收益，可选的优秀资管产品有很多；若投资者有财 富传承等综合性金融需求，信托凭借其制度优势，依然无可替代。 481只去年收益告负基金年内业绩转正 Wind资讯数据显示，截至2月23日，今年以来已有481只去年收益告负的基金实现净值增长率转正，其 中1 ...

Group 1 - A total of 481 funds that reported negative returns last year have achieved positive net value growth rates as of February 23, with 19 funds showing a difference in net value growth rates exceeding 20 percentage points [1] - Among these funds, medium to long-term pure bond funds and equity hybrid funds are predominant, accounting for 57.1% (275 funds) and 10.6% (51 funds) respectively [1] - Medium to long-term pure bond funds are characterized by stable operations and low volatility, with their previous negative returns largely influenced by market interest rate fluctuations and liquidity issues [1] Group 2 - The average stock position of the 51 equity hybrid funds reached 88% by the end of last year, providing fund managers with flexibility to switch sectors quickly [1] - The naming of "performance reversal" funds frequently includes terms like "strategy," "value," and "preferred," indicating a strong rotation strategy that combines top-down sector selection and bottom-up stock picking [1] - Most "performance reversal" funds are small-sized, with 15 out of the 19 funds showing a difference of over 20 percentage points having a scale of less than 1 billion yuan [1] Group 3 - Small-sized funds have higher flexibility in adjusting their portfolios, allowing them to quickly build positions in limited-capacity sectors like precious metals and niche manufacturing, which is a key advantage for capturing structural opportunities [2] - The core logic of "performance reversal" funds is characterized by "high turnover + strong rotation," as exemplified by the Jin Ying Transformation Power Mixed Fund, which shifted its holdings from AI applications to new energy midstream equipment companies [2] - High turnover strategies require fund managers to have strong industry judgment and timing skills, as missteps in sector switching can lead to rapid declines in performance [2] Group 4 - Investors are advised to track fund adjustments through regular reports, as consistent successful sector switching may validate the effectiveness of the fund's strategy [3] - Conversely, if a fund fails to demonstrate effective switching, caution in allocation is recommended [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the end of Q4 2025, the total number of active bond - type funds (excluding amortized cost method funds) was 3,399, a 1.5% increase from the previous quarter, and the fund scale was 7.80 trillion yuan, a 1.6% increase [2][5][7]. - In Q4 2025, 93 active bond - type funds were issued, 18 more than the previous quarter, a 24.0% increase. The total issuance scale was 62.49 billion yuan, a 24% increase [2][9][10]. - In Q4 2025, the performance of medium - and long - term pure bond funds was better than that of short - term pure bond funds. Affected by the equity market, the performance of secondary bond funds was slightly weaker [2][14][16]. - Different types of active bond funds had different changes in leverage, duration, and asset allocation. For example, medium - and long - term pure bond funds' heavy - position bond duration decreased, while short - term bond funds' leverage ratio slightly increased [2][19][34]. - The mixed secondary bond funds reduced their stock positions and increased their holdings in non - banking finance and communication sectors [2][54][61]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Active Bond - type Fund Scale and Issuance - **Scale Change**: The total number of active bond - type funds increased by 1.5% to 3,399. The scale increased by 1.6% to 7.80 trillion yuan. The number of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, short - term pure bond funds, and mixed secondary bond funds increased by 0.6%, 0.6%, and 5.8% respectively, while the number of mixed primary bond funds decreased by 0.2%. The scale of medium - and long - term pure bond funds and mixed primary bond funds decreased by 4.0% and 2.1% respectively, and the scale of short - term pure bond funds and mixed secondary bond funds increased by 6.2% and 19.7% respectively [2][5][7]. - **Fund Issuance**: In Q4 2025, 93 active bond - type funds were issued, an increase of 18 from the previous quarter. Among them, 52 were mixed secondary bond funds. The total issuance scale was 62.49 billion yuan, a 24% increase. The issuance scale of medium - and long - term pure bond funds and mixed primary bond funds decreased by 21.0% and 79.9% respectively, while the issuance scale of mixed secondary bond funds increased by 117.2% [2][9][10]. 3.2 Active Bond - type Fund Performance - **Performance of Pure Bond Funds**: In Q4 2025, the yields of medium - and long - term pure bond funds were better than those of short - term pure bond funds. The yields of short - term and medium - and long - term pure bond fund indexes were 0.47% and 0.54% respectively [2][14]. - **Performance of Secondary Bond Funds**: Affected by the equity market, the performance of secondary bond funds was slightly weaker. The yields of mixed primary and secondary bond fund indexes were 0.55% and 0.38% respectively, and the maximum drawdowns were - 0.51% and - 1.04% respectively [2][16]. 3.3 Active Bond Fund Position Analysis - **Medium - and Long - term Pure Bond Funds**: The leverage ratio of closed - end medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased, while that of open - end ones decreased. The bond position of closed - end funds increased, while that of open - end funds decreased. Closed - end funds increased their holdings of credit bonds and reduced their holdings of interest - rate bonds, and vice versa for open - end funds. Both types of funds reduced their holdings of financial bonds. The weighted duration of the top five heavy - position bonds of both types of funds decreased [19][22][31]. - **Short - term Bond Funds**: The median leverage ratio increased by 1.5pct to 110.1%. The median bond position increased by 1.2pct to 106.7%. They reduced their holdings of credit bonds and increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, and the median financial bond position increased by 2.1pct. The weighted duration of the top five heavy - position bonds increased slightly by 0.01 year [34][36][40]. - **Mixed Primary Bond Funds**: The median leverage ratio and bond position increased by 3.1pct and 4.1pct respectively. They increased their holdings of credit and interest - rate bonds, the median financial bond position increased slightly, the median convertible bond position increased by 0.64pct, and the weighted duration of the top five heavy - position bonds decreased by 0.21 year [42][45][49]. - **Mixed Secondary Bond Funds**: The median leverage ratio decreased slightly by 0.3pct to 107.5%. The stock position decreased by 0.80pct to 13.85%, and the bond position increased by 0.40pct to 87.85%. The median convertible bond position decreased by 0.97pct. The weighted duration of the top five heavy - position bonds decreased by 0.08 year. They increased their holdings in non - banking finance, communication, and non - ferrous metals sectors, and reduced their holdings in pharmaceutical biology, media, and electronics sectors. Zijin Mining was the largest heavy - position stock, and the heavy - position holding scale of Zijin Mining, Zhongji Innolight, and Ping An of China increased by more than 2 billion yuan [51][54][64].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current bond market situation cannot simply be compared to the 2017 bear market as the interest rate change sequence is different. Currently, long - term interest rates rise first due to economic recovery expectations while short - term interest rates remain stable under the central bank's liquidity - maintaining policy [36]. - Systemic bear markets usually require the combination of rising short - term interest rates and tightened liquidity. Expectations alone can only lead to a phased rise in long - term interest rates but are insufficient to trigger a full - scale bear market [37]. - Given the current low short - term interest rates and the need for economic recovery, the yield inversion between money market funds and bond funds will improve. A steeper bond yield curve allows for leveraging strategies to obtain returns [37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Historical Review: Structural Anomalies from 2016 - 2018 1.1 Yield Trends - From 2016Q4, bond fund yields slowed significantly, and were outperformed by money market funds in many quarters. For example, in 2016Q4, the quarterly return of money market funds was 2.62%, while short - term pure bond funds had - 0.66% and medium - long - term pure bond funds had - 1.29%. Bond funds faced high capital costs and a flattened yield curve, resulting in large net value drawdowns [10]. 1.2 Key Policies and Major Events during the Period - In December 2016, the central bank included off - balance - sheet wealth management in the MPA's broad credit indicator, tightening non - bank institutions' funding sources. In March 2017, the CBRC launched the "Three Threes and Four Tens" special governance, shrinking bank inter - bank business and intensifying liquidity stratification. From 2016 - 2018, the central bank raised MLF and OMO rates multiple times, increasing financial institutions' capital costs. In April 2018, the asset management new regulations were officially implemented, promoting the institutionalization of de - leveraging [13]. 2. Cause Analysis 2.1 Policy Aspect: Central Bank's Open - Market Operation Interest Rate Adjustment - From 2016 - 2018, the central bank raised OMO and MLF rates, achieving a de facto interest rate hike. The 1 - year MLF rate rose from 3% in February 2016 to 3.3% in April 2018, indicating a tightening policy [16]. 2.2 Funding Aspect: Intensified Liquidity Stratification - Financial de - leveraging policies restricted inter - bank business, leading to severe liquidity stratification in the inter - bank market. The spread between R007 and DR007 widened from less than 20bp in the first three quarters of 2016 to a maximum of 71bp in March 2017, eroding bond funds' leverage arbitrage space [17][19]. 2.3 Fundamental Aspect: Strong Growth Supported Policy Implementation - In 2017, financial de - leveraging was an active policy choice during a period of strong economic fundamentals. China's GDP growth in 2017 was 6.9%, providing confidence for de - leveraging. The "high PPI, low CPI" inflation structure in 2017 created a good policy window [20][23]. 3. Relationship between Bond Yield Curve Shape and Bond Fund Yields - In 2017, the bond yield curve showed a two - stage V - shaped trend. From the end of 2016 to June 2017, it was bear - flattening due to tight funding. From July to December 2017, it was bear - deepening as strong economic fundamentals drove long - term interest rates up [25]. - The monthly returns of short - term and medium - long - term pure bond funds reflected the "first flat, then steep" change of the yield curve. From the end of 2016 to June 2017, short - term pure bond funds had lower returns, while from July to December 2017, medium - long - term pure bond funds suffered more capital losses [28]. - Bond funds' leverage ratios first decreased and then increased. In the first half of 2017, most funds reduced leverage. In the second half, short - term pure bond funds actively increased leverage as the yield curve steepened [30][32]. 4. How Did the Structural Anomaly Recover? 4.1 Policy Turnaround and Decline in Short - Term Interest Rates - In the second half of 2018, the policy shifted from de - leveraging to stabilizing growth. The central bank implemented multiple rounds of reserve requirement ratio cuts from 2018 to early 2019, releasing long - term low - cost liquidity and lowering short - term interest rates [33]. 4.2 Changes in Bond Yield Curve Shape - After the easing policy, short - term interest rates dropped rapidly, while long - term interest rates declined more slowly. The yield curve changed from bear - flat to bull - steep, reopening profit opportunities for bond funds' carry and duration strategies [34]. 5. Implications for the Current Market - The current situation is different from 2016 - 2018. The current long - term interest rate rise is driven by economic recovery expectations, and short - term interest rates are stable. The yield inversion between money and bond funds will improve, and leveraging strategies can be used [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The bond fund market in 2026 has started off poorly, with over 40% of pure bond funds failing to achieve positive returns due to rising long-term interest rates, particularly affecting medium to long-term products [3][5][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - Approximately 1,600 medium to long-term pure bond funds have not achieved positive returns, accounting for nearly 50% of all such funds [5][9]. - The average return of bond funds over the past year is only 1.83%, a significant drop from 3.60% in the previous year, indicating a near halving of returns [8][10]. - In 2025, the average return of medium to long-term pure bond funds was just 0.78%, down nearly 80% from 3.44% in 2024, even falling below the average return of money market funds at 1.12% [10][11]. Group 2: Fund Performance and Flows - The bond market's weak performance has led to significant capital outflows, with over 50 billion yuan withdrawn from bond ETFs and large redemptions from several off-market bond funds [6][8]. - Notable underperformers include funds like Jinyuan Shun'an Hongze and Huatai Baoxing Zunyi Rate Bond, with declines exceeding 0.7% [6][7]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Returns - The primary reason for the decline in returns is the upward pressure on long-term bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield rising about 5 basis points to 1.89% and the 30-year yield increasing about 8 basis points to 2.33% since the beginning of the year [12][14]. - Many underperforming funds had high exposure to long-term government bonds, which has contributed to their poor performance amid rising interest rates [13][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to enter a phase of wide fluctuations, with limited downward space for yields but manageable risks for significant upward movements [3][19]. - Analysts suggest that a conservative coupon strategy may offer better value in the current market environment compared to trading strategies [18][19]. - The overall sentiment among institutions regarding the bond market in 2026 is cautious, contrasting with the bullish environment of 2023-2024 [18][19].

倒春寒 2026年债券基金开局遇冷，在长端利率上行背景下，全市场超四成纯债型基金未能实现正收益，中长期品种成 为调整"重灾区"，约1600只产品未获正收益，在所有中长期纯债基中占比接近五成。市场表现疲软也引发资金 显著流出。 拉长时间线看，近一年债券基金平均收益率仅为1.83%，较上年同期近乎"腰斩"，2025年全年中长期纯债基平均 收益率甚至低于货币基金。与纯债产品普遍承压形成对比，可转债基金表现亮眼，多只产品年内涨幅超20%。 分析认为，收益率回撤主要受利率上行、机构久期错配及股市资金分流等多重因素影响。展望后市，机构普遍 认为债市将进入宽幅震荡阶段，收益率下行空间有限但大幅上行风险可控。在当前市场环境下，采取稳健的票 息策略或比交易型策略更具配置价值。 债基未迎"开门红"，中长期产品成重灾区 债基未能迎来2026年"开门红"。在长端收益率明显上行的影响下，约半数中长期纯债型基金今年以来未能实现 正收益。 Wind数据显示，全市场4500多只纯债型基金（份额分开计算）中，约1780只基金今年以来回报为零或为负，占 比达40%。其中，中长期纯债型基金成为下跌主力，约1600只产品未获正收益，在所有中长期纯债 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a downturn, with the 10-year government bond yield remaining above 1.8% since September, leading to a total return of only 0.78% for pure bond funds this year, which is lower than that of money market funds [1][2] - The recent simultaneous decline in both stock and bond markets is attributed to low risk-reward environments and ongoing concerns about potential new regulations, resulting in insufficient buying interest from investors [2][4] - The bond market's weakness is further exacerbated by year-end profit-taking demands from institutions, alongside a lack of significant short-term positive catalysts, leading to increased selling pressure [1][4] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that significant adjustments in the bond market are often linked to economic expectations, policy shifts, and changes in trading structures, with past downturns indicating a pattern of recovery following each major decline [5][7] - The bond market has undergone five notable adjustments in the past five years, with each instance reflecting a re-evaluation of market conditions and investor sentiment [5][7] - Current market conditions suggest that while the bond market may remain in a narrow trading range in the short term, there is potential for improvement in the short-end supply-demand structure due to a clear supportive stance from the central bank [4][8] Group 3 - Investment strategies in the current bond market environment should focus on short to medium-duration bond funds, while maintaining a cautious stance on long-duration bonds until market trends become clearer [9][11] - The concept of "timing" in bond fund investment is less critical than ensuring a balanced asset allocation, as bonds inherently possess income-generating characteristics that can mitigate short-term volatility [8][9] - The introduction of "fixed income plus" strategies is recommended to enhance returns while managing risk, particularly in a fluctuating market [11][13]

Group 1: Characteristics of Interbank Certificate of Deposit Index Funds - The average yield of interbank certificate of deposit index funds is between that of money market funds and short-term bond funds, with a maximum drawdown of 0.18% and an annualized yield of 2.52% [1][8] - The underlying assets are primarily large-denomination deposits from banks, with the largest fund, "Huatai-PineBridge Interbank Certificate of Deposit Index 7-Day Holding," having 92% of its assets in interbank certificates [3] - Some funds may deviate from the norm, such as "Yimi Interbank Certificate of Deposit Index 7-Day Holding," which invested 19% in government bonds, although this is within the contractual limit of 20% for other investments [5] Group 2: Fund Performance and Management - As of 2024, the interbank certificate of deposit index has increased by 4.01% with a maximum drawdown of 0.06%, and only a few funds have outperformed this index [8][9] - The funds that have outperformed the index include "Chuangjin Hexin" and "Huatai-PineBridge," with respective yields of 4.17% and 4.07% [9] - The management fees for these funds are 0.2% annually plus a 0.05% custody fee, meaning a total of approximately 0.5% over two years [8] Group 3: Bond Fund Characteristics - The criteria for selecting bond funds include being a medium to long-term pure bond fund, with a maximum drawdown not exceeding 2% since 2021, and a yield exceeding 18% [10] - The "Medium to Long-Term Pure Bond Fund Index" has risen by 16.15% since 2021, with a maximum drawdown of 1.08% [10] - Notable funds that meet the criteria include "Penghua Fenglu" and "Southern Jinli," with respective yields of 29.80% and 32.47% [11] Group 4: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's expectation for a rate cut in December has risen to 89.2%, influencing the recent rebounds in U.S. stocks, gold, and silver [22] - The potential appointment of Hassett as the new Fed Chair is seen as a positive for market liquidity, contributing to the strength of U.S. stocks and gold [25] - Concerns about market bubbles are highlighted, with current valuations being compared to historical highs, indicating a need for caution [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total number of active bond funds increased by 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, while the total fund size decreased by 3.5% quarter-on-quarter. Among them, the scale of hybrid secondary bond funds increased significantly by 61.1% [2][5][6]. - In Q3 2025, the yield of Treasury bonds increased, and the performance of short-term pure bond funds was better than that of medium and long-term pure bond funds. Driven by equity assets, secondary bond funds performed better [2][15][17]. - In terms of positions, medium and long-term pure bond funds, short-term bond funds, and hybrid primary bond funds all reduced leverage and duration. The bond positions of medium and long-term pure bond funds and short-term bond funds decreased, while the convertible bond positions of hybrid primary bond funds increased. Hybrid secondary bond funds increased their stock positions and decreased their bond positions, and increased their positions in sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and media [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Scale and Issuance of Active Bond Funds - **Scale Change**: As of the end of Q3 2025, the number of active bond funds was 3,349 (excluding amortized cost method funds), a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.4%. The total fund size was 7.68 trillion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.5%. Among them, the number of medium and long-term pure bond funds, hybrid primary bond funds, and hybrid secondary bond funds increased by 0.8%, 1.7%, and 3.8% respectively quarter-on-quarter, while the number of short-term pure bond funds decreased by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. The scale of medium and long-term pure bond funds, short-term pure bond funds, and hybrid primary bond funds decreased by 11.1%, 18.0%, and 1.0% respectively, while the scale of hybrid secondary bond funds increased significantly by 61.1% quarter-on-quarter [5][6]. - **Fund Issuance**: In Q3 2025, 75 active bond funds were issued, an increase of 11 from the previous quarter, a growth rate of 17.2%. The total issuance scale was 50.41 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 39%. Among them, the issuance scale of medium and long-term pure bond funds and short-term pure bond funds decreased compared with the previous quarter, while the issuance scale of hybrid primary bond funds and hybrid secondary bond funds increased by 37.8% and 39.5% respectively quarter-on-quarter [10][12]. 2. Performance of Active Bond Funds - **Treasury Yield Increase**: In Q3 2025, the yields of 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bonds increased by 3bp, 12bp, 10bp, 16bp, 22bp, and 39bp respectively. Against the background of rising interest rates, the performance of medium and long-term pure bond funds was poor. The yield of the short-term pure bond fund index was 0.16%, and the yield of the medium and long-term pure bond fund index was -0.37% [15]. - **Better Performance of Equity-Containing Products**: Driven by equity assets in Q3 2025, secondary bond funds performed better. The yield of the hybrid primary bond fund index was 0.64%, with a maximum drawdown of -0.50%; the yield of the hybrid secondary bond fund index was 3.18%, with a maximum drawdown of -0.73% [17]. 3. Position Analysis of Active Bond Funds - **Medium and Long-Term Pure Bond Funds**: Reduced leverage and duration, and bond positions generally decreased. Both closed - end and open - end medium and long-term pure bond funds reduced their positions in interest rate bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds [20][26][28]. - **Short-Term Bond Funds**: Reduced leverage and duration, and the financial bond position decreased. The bond position and the weighted duration of the top five heavy - held bonds also decreased [35][37][42]. - **Hybrid Primary Bond Funds**: Reduced leverage and duration, and the convertible bond position increased. The leverage ratio and bond position decreased, while the convertible bond position increased [44][46][48]. - **Hybrid Secondary Bond Funds**: - **Asset Allocation**: The bond position decreased, and the stock position increased. The median convertible bond position decreased compared with the end of the previous quarter [56][58]. - **Industry Distribution of Heavy - Held Stocks**: In Q3, sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and media were increased, while sectors such as banks, public utilities, and transportation were reduced [63]. - **Heavy - Held Stocks**: Zijin Mining was the largest heavy - held stock, and the heavy - held scale of the top ten heavy - held stocks increased. Stocks such as CATL and Alibaba - W were increased significantly, while stocks such as Yangtze Power and China Merchants Bank were reduced [67][68].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The banking sector is experiencing a shift in fund investment behavior, with banks redeeming low-yield money market funds and increasing their holdings in credit bond funds to enhance returns [5][57] - The total fund holdings of listed banks reached approximately 6.37 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.03% of total assets as of the end of the first half of 2025 [15][18] - The proportion of fund investments in the fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL) category is 48.5%, with city commercial banks showing even higher ratios [15][22] Summary by Sections 1. Fund Investment Participation and Scale - The self-managed fund holdings of listed banks as of June 2025 were approximately 6.37 trillion yuan, with shareholding banks and city commercial banks having significant investment scales of 2.84 trillion yuan and 1.72 trillion yuan, respectively [15][18] - The investment in money market funds decreased to 9.10%, while the proportion of passive index bond funds increased to 7.90% [23][25] 2. Changes in Fund Investment Behavior - Banks are redeeming money market funds and low-yield rate bond funds while increasing their investment in credit bond funds [5][57] - The redemption pressure for money market funds was primarily concentrated in the first quarter of 2025, driven by liquidity management needs and yield enhancement [49][55] 3. Future Expansion and Impact of Redemption Fee Reform - Smaller banks have greater expansion potential in fund investments, driven by the need for redundant fund screening and tax-exempt income [3][3] - The implementation of redemption fee reforms may catalyze preventive redemptions by banks, leading to a preference for customized bond funds and bond ETFs [3][3]