作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 债市延续暖意，收益率曲线陡峭化下移 ——利率债周报（2025.12.15-2025.12.21） 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 核心观点 时间 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 2025 年 12 月 22 日 上周债市延续暖意，收益率曲线陡峭化下移。上周一（12 月 15 日）公布的 11 月宏观经济数据进一步印证基本面相对偏弱，但 市场反应持续钝化，债市延续调整。不过，周二起，受股市调 整，随税期基本结束，资金面转松，央行重启 14 天期逆回购操 作，市场对年末宽松预期再起，以及 LPR 调降预期升温等因素 提振，市场情绪逐步修复，债市明显回暖。总体上看，上周债 市先跌后涨，整体偏强，长债收益率延续下行。短端利率方面， 上周适逢税期，但在央行呵护下资金面保持宽松，叠加宽松预 期再起，短债收益率下行幅度仍大于长债，收益率曲线陡峭化 下移。 本周（12 月 22 日当周）债市料将偏弱震荡。本周一宣布的 12 月 LPR 报价维持不变，市场对 LPR 报价下调的预期落空， 这或驱动机构兑现上周利率下行带来的浮盈，给债市带来调整 压力。不过，在央行买债、资金面保持宽松态势，以及 ...

Market Overview - The funding environment was tight at the beginning of the week but eased later, maintaining overall balance [1] - The bond market experienced fluctuations due to news regarding fund fee rate adjustments and potential cancellation of tax exemptions for bond funds, leading to a rise in yields [1][4] - The 10-year government bond yield surpassed 1.8%, reaching a new high since April, before retreating later in the week due to weak export and financial data, as well as rumors of the central bank restarting bond purchases [1][4] Yield Changes - As of September 12, 2025, the yields for various maturities changed as follows: 1-year (0.41BP), 2-year (2.14BP), 3-year (0.97BP), 5-year (0.18BP), 7-year (2.25BP), 10-year (4.1BP), 30-year (7.15BP), and 50-year (7.75BP) compared to September 5, 2025 [2][3] Bond Market Dynamics - On Monday, the bond market weakened due to new fund fee regulations, with the 10-year bond yield rising to 1.784% [4] - On Tuesday, significant redemptions in index bond funds led to a quick rise in yields, with the 10-year bond yield reaching 1.795% [4] - By Wednesday, the yield peaked at 1.8325% before slightly retreating to 1.815% [4] - On Thursday, rumors of the central bank's bond purchases helped restore market sentiment, causing yields to drop [4] - By Friday, the central bank announced a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, contributing to further yield declines [4] Government Bond Issuance - A total of 83 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 10,345.42 billion yuan, including 5,663.70 billion yuan in government bonds [8] - For the upcoming week (September 15-19, 2025), 69 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling 5,005.19 billion yuan [8] International Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury market saw a slight rebound after reaching multi-month lows, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.06% [9] - The U.S. August CPI rose by 2.9%, slightly above the previous value of 2.7%, while core CPI remained stable at 3.1% [10][12] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 12,645 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations last week, resulting in a net injection of 1,961 billion yuan [13] - An announcement was made for a 600 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation scheduled for September 15, 2025 [13] Economic Indicators - The consumer price index (CPI) in August remained stable, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [15] - The total social financing scale increased by 26.56 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [16] Institutional Perspectives - Huazhong Securities noted that the bond market sentiment remains fragile, with potential opportunities for long-term investments despite current volatility [19] - Financial institutions suggest a "barbell" strategy for bond investments, focusing on medium to high-grade credit bonds in the short term and long-term government bonds [19]

扫码进入基本功专栏 基本功的基,就是基金的基。 做好投资、买对基金, 从夯实投资基金的基本功开始。 1分钟GET一个知识点, 起步更轻松。 债市的"收益率曲线" =1+4? 描述债券收益率与债券 期限之间关系的曲线。 曲线横轴是债券期限,纵轴是债券收益率。当把 c 中泰证券资产管理 本材料不构成投资建议，观点具有时效性。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不 保证基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。投资有风险，基金过往业绩不代表其未来表现。基金管理人管理的基金 的业绩不构成对其他基金业绩表现的保证。投资者投资基金时应认真阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书、基金产 品资料概要等法律文件。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的"买者自负"原则，请投资者根据自身的风险承受能力 选择适合自己的基金产品。基金有风险，投资须谨慎。 ...