Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the bond market continued to show warmth, with the yield curve shifting downward in a steepening manner. The bond market first declined and then rose, remaining generally strong, and long - term bond yields continued to fall. Short - term interest rates also decreased, with a larger decline in short - term bond yields than long - term ones. This week (the week of December 22), the bond market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The unchanged LPR quote on Monday may drive institutions to realize floating profits, bringing adjustment pressure. However, supported by factors such as central bank bond - buying, loose liquidity, and funds' year - end scale - boosting demands, the long - end bond yields are expected to be "capped" and fluctuate slightly. Before the end of the year, the bond market is mainly driven by institutional behavior, and the 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to oscillate within the range of 1.83% - 1.88% [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market was generally warm last week, and long - term bond yields continued to fall. The 10 - year Treasury futures main contract rose 0.14% cumulatively. The 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 0.88bp, and the 1 - year Treasury yield decreased by 3.32bp compared with the previous Friday, with the term spread continuing to widen [4]. - On December 15 (Monday), the bond market continued to adjust. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly rose, and Treasury futures contracts closed down across the board. The 10 - year main contract fell 0.12%, and the 30 - year main contract fell 0.99%, hitting a new closing low since November 18, 2024 [4]. - On December 16 (Tuesday), the bond market recovered slightly. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 0.30bp. The performance of Treasury futures contracts at different maturities was divergent, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.05% [4]. - On December 17 (Wednesday), the bond market continued to recover. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 1.18bp. Treasury futures contracts closed up across the board, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.10% [4]. - On December 18 (Thursday), short - term bonds continued to recover, but long - term bonds were weak. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, but the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 0.16bp. Most Treasury futures contracts closed up, with the 10 - year main contract remaining flat [4]. - On December 19 (Friday), the bond market continued its upward trend. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 0.48bp. Treasury futures contracts closed up across the board, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.10% [4]. 3.1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 35 interest - rate bonds were issued, a decrease of 62 compared with the previous week. The issuance volume was 376.1 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 919.8 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 20.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 374.4 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local government bonds all decreased compared with the previous week [10]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable. Four Treasury bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 2.82 times; seven policy - bank bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 3.92 times; 24 local government bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 19.28 times [11]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - The macro data in November continued the downward trend. The year - on - year actual growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in November was 4.8% (previous value: 4.9%); the cumulative year - on - year actual growth rate in the first 11 months was 6.0% (2024 full - year cumulative year - on - year: 5.8%). The year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in November was 1.3% (previous value: 2.9%); the cumulative year - on - year growth rate in the first 11 months was 4.0% (2024 full - year cumulative year - on - year: 3.5%). The cumulative year - on - year decline in national fixed - asset investment from January to November 2025 was 2.6% (previous value: a decline of 1.7%, 2024 full - year cumulative year - on - year growth: 3.2%) [12]. - The slight decline in industrial added - value growth in November was mainly due to the weakening of the pulling effect of domestic - demand - promoting policies, weak domestic consumption and investment momentum, and subsequent pressure on demand, which was transmitted to industrial production. The significant decline in the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in November was mainly due to the weakening of the subsidy policy for trading in the old for the new, the expansion of the decline in commercial housing sales, the pre - positioning of some consumption demand in October due to the early "Double Eleven" promotion, and factors such as fluctuations in the external economic and trade environment and the accelerating decline in domestic housing prices, which continuously suppressed residents' consumption confidence and willingness. The cumulative year - on - year negative growth in fixed - asset investment from January to November continued for three months and the decline was expanding, mainly because the three major investment sectors of infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate all slowed down. After excluding price factors, the actual fixed - asset investment from January to November maintained positive growth, indicating that investment still played a positive role in promoting economic growth [12]. 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - Most high - frequency data on the production side declined last week. The blast - furnace operating rate, petroleum asphalt plant operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and daily average pig iron output all decreased to varying degrees. On the demand side, the BDI index continued to decline, while the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) continued to rise. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities rebounded significantly. In terms of prices, the pork price rose slightly overall, while most commodity prices declined, including copper and oil prices, while the rebar price increased [13]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's open - market operations had a net capital injection of 109 billion yuan last week. The R007 rose, and DR007 declined. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks fluctuated upward, the national and stock direct - discount rates at all maturities continued to rise, the trading volume of pledged repurchase continued to increase, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio continued to rise [26][27].

Market Overview - The funding environment was tight at the beginning of the week but eased later, maintaining overall balance [1] - The bond market experienced fluctuations due to news regarding fund fee rate adjustments and potential cancellation of tax exemptions for bond funds, leading to a rise in yields [1][4] - The 10-year government bond yield surpassed 1.8%, reaching a new high since April, before retreating later in the week due to weak export and financial data, as well as rumors of the central bank restarting bond purchases [1][4] Yield Changes - As of September 12, 2025, the yields for various maturities changed as follows: 1-year (0.41BP), 2-year (2.14BP), 3-year (0.97BP), 5-year (0.18BP), 7-year (2.25BP), 10-year (4.1BP), 30-year (7.15BP), and 50-year (7.75BP) compared to September 5, 2025 [2][3] Bond Market Dynamics - On Monday, the bond market weakened due to new fund fee regulations, with the 10-year bond yield rising to 1.784% [4] - On Tuesday, significant redemptions in index bond funds led to a quick rise in yields, with the 10-year bond yield reaching 1.795% [4] - By Wednesday, the yield peaked at 1.8325% before slightly retreating to 1.815% [4] - On Thursday, rumors of the central bank's bond purchases helped restore market sentiment, causing yields to drop [4] - By Friday, the central bank announced a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, contributing to further yield declines [4] Government Bond Issuance - A total of 83 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 10,345.42 billion yuan, including 5,663.70 billion yuan in government bonds [8] - For the upcoming week (September 15-19, 2025), 69 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling 5,005.19 billion yuan [8] International Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury market saw a slight rebound after reaching multi-month lows, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.06% [9] - The U.S. August CPI rose by 2.9%, slightly above the previous value of 2.7%, while core CPI remained stable at 3.1% [10][12] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 12,645 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations last week, resulting in a net injection of 1,961 billion yuan [13] - An announcement was made for a 600 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation scheduled for September 15, 2025 [13] Economic Indicators - The consumer price index (CPI) in August remained stable, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [15] - The total social financing scale increased by 26.56 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [16] Institutional Perspectives - Huazhong Securities noted that the bond market sentiment remains fragile, with potential opportunities for long-term investments despite current volatility [19] - Financial institutions suggest a "barbell" strategy for bond investments, focusing on medium to high-grade credit bonds in the short term and long-term government bonds [19]

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